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6.4 Hypergeometricprobability PDF
6.4 Hypergeometricprobability PDF
6.4 Hypergeometricprobability PDF
• Multiplication Rule (Example 6, Section 5.4, p. 297) • Combinations (Section 5.5, pp. 307–309)
Problem: Suppose that a researcher goes to a small college with 200 faculty, 12 of
Historical which have blood type O-negative. She obtains a simple random sample of n = 20
Note of the faculty and finds that 3 of the faculty have blood type O-negative. Is this
experiment a hypergeometric probability experiment? List the possible values of
The name hypergeometric
is attributed to Leonhard Euler. Euler the random variable X, the number of faculty that have blood type O-negative.
was born in Basel, Switzerland, on
April 15, 1707. His father was a
Approach: We need to determine if the three criteria for a hypergeometric exper-
minister and wanted Leonhard to iment have been satisfied.
study theology as well. However, after
a discussion with Johann Bernoulli, a
Solution: This is a hypergeometric probability experiment because
friend from college, Euler’s father 1. The population consists of N = 200 faculty.
allowed him to study mathematics
2. Two outcomes are possible: the faculty member has blood type O-negative or the
at the University of Basel. Euler
completed his studies in 1726. Euler faculty member does not have blood type O-negative. The researcher obtained
married Katharina Gsell on January 7, k = 3 successes.
1734. They had 13 children, only 5 of 3. The sample is size n = 20.
whom survived. Euler claims to have
made many of his greatest discoveries The possible values of the random variable are x = 0, 1, 2, Á , 12. The largest value
with a child in his arms and children of X is 12, because we cannot have more than 12 successes since there are only
crawling at his feet. In 1740, Euler lost 12 faculty with blood type O-negative in the population.
sight in his right eye.One of his famous
quotes on this loss is “Now I will have
less distraction.” He eventually lost
sight in his other eye as well, but this Notice that we cannot use the binomial probability distribution to determine
did not slow him down. Euler died on the likelihood of obtaining three successes in 20 trials in Example 1 because the
September 18, 1783, in St. Petersburg. sample size is large relative to the population size. That is, n = 20 is more than 5%
of the population size, N = 200.
Now Work Problem 5
1kCx21N - kCn - x2
P1x2 = (1)
NCn
The logic behind Formula (1) is based on the Classical Method given on page
263, along with the Multiplication Rule of Counting given on page 304. The Classi-
cal Method for computing probabilities states that the probability of an event is the
number of ways the event can occur, divided by the total number of outcomes in
the experiment. The denominator of Formula (1) represents the number of ways n
objects can be selected from N objects. This represents the number of possible out-
comes in the experiment. The numerator consists of two factors. The first factor,
kCx, represents the number of ways we can select the x successes from the k suc-
cesses in the population. The second factor, 1N - k2C1n - x2, represents the number of
ways we can select n - x failures from the N - k failures in the population. Using
the Multiplication Rule of Counting, we find the number of ways we could obtain x
successes from n trials of the experiment.
Solution
(a) We are looking for the probability of obtaining 3 successes, so x = 3.
112C321200 - 12C 20 - 32 112C321188C172
P132 = = = 0.0833
C
200 20 200C20
Solution
(a) We are looking for the probability of obtaining 0 successes, so x = 0.
150C021500 - 50C12 - 02 150C021450C122
P102 = = = 0.2783
500C12 500C12
There is a 0.2783 probability that, in a random sample of 12 bolts, none are defective
(if 10% of the bolts in the population are defective). If we conducted this experi-
ment 100 times, we would expect to observe no defective bolts about 28 times.
(b) We are looking for the probability of obtaining 0 successes, so x = 0.
1100C021500 - 100C12 - 02 1100C021 400C122
P102 = = = 0.0665
C
500 12 500C12
There is a 0.0655 probability that, in a random sample of 12 bolts, the manager will
select none that are defective (if 20% of the bolts in the population actually are
defective). If we conducted this experiment 100 times, we would expect to observe
no defective bolts about 7 times. Notice that, as the number of defective bolts
increases, the probability of not selecting a single defective bolt decreases.
Now Work Problems 17(a)–(e)
x P( X ⫽ x )
0.00 0.278250
*MINITAB’s notation differs slightly from the notation that we use in this text. Instead of using k to
represent the number of successes in the population, MINITAB uses M.
a b n
k N - n # # k #N - k
mX = n # and sX = (2)
N B N - 1 N N
where n is the sample size
k is the number of successes in the population
N is the size of the population
k
The ratio is the proportion of successes in the population. If you look carefully at
N k
the formulas for the mean and standard deviation and replace with p, we almost
N
have the formulas for the mean and standard deviation of a binomial random
N - n
variable. (Note that is a finite population correction factor that approaches
N - 1
1 as the population size increases, while n stays fixed and small relative to N. For
this reason, we ignore its effect on the standard deviation of a binomial random
variable)
Solution
k 12
mX = n # = 20 # = 1.2
N 200
and
a b n a b 20
N - n # # k #N - k 200 - 20 # # 12 # 200- 12
sX = = = 1.01
B N - 1 N N B 200 - 1 200 200
22. Messy Sock Drawer Suppose that you wake up for work in the inspection. What is the probability that the shipment is
the dark and find that the lights don’t work in your bed- accepted:
room. In addition, your sock drawer is a mess and contains (a) If 10% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
12 black socks and 17 blue socks that otherwise look alike. (b) If 20% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
What is the probability that you randomly select two black (c) If 40% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
socks if you select exactly 2 socks? (d) If 60% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
(e) If 80% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
23. Acceptance Sampling Suppose that a concrete manufactur-
(f) Draw a horizontal axis and label it Percent Defective.
er has made 200 concrete cylinders that are supposed to
Draw a vertical axis and label it Probability Accept Ship-
withstand 4,000 pounds per square inch of pressure. As the
ment. Plot probability accept shipment against the percent
quality-control manager, you decide to randomly test 4 of
defective and connect the points in a smooth curve. This
the cylinders to be sure they are manufactured to specifica-
curve is referred to as an operating characteristic curve.
tion. You will only accept the shipment if all 4 cylinders pass
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
20 40 60 80 100
Percent Defective