3 Generating

capacity-frequency and
duration method

3.1 Introduction

The previous chapter illustrates the application of basic probability

methods to the evaluation of static capacity adequacy. The basic indices
illustrated in Chapter 2 are the expected number of days (or ho hours)
urs) in a
given period that the load exceeded the available capacity and the
expected energy not supplied in the period due to insufficient installed
capacity.. These are useful indices which can be used to compare the
capacity
adequacy of alternative configurations and expansions. They do not,
however, give any indication of the frequency of occurrence of an
insufficient capacity condition, nor the duration for wh
which
ich it is likely to
exist. The LOLE index of days/year, when inverted to provide years/day,
is often misinterpreted as a frequency index. It should, however, be
regarded in its basic form as the expected number of days/year that the
load exceeds the available installed capacity.
A frequency and duration approach to capacity evaluation was first
introduced by Halperin and Adler [1] in 1958. This approach is some-
what cumbersome and the indices were not really utilized until a group of
papers by Ringlee, Wood et al. [2-5] in 1968-69 presented recursive
algorithms for capacity model building and load model combination
which facilitated digital computer application [6].
There are increasingly many attempts to incorporate the generation
and major transmission elements into an overall or composite system
evaluation procedure wh which
ich can provide both load point and overall
system adequacy indices. This is the subject of Chapter 6 of this text.
Frequency and duration are the most useful indices for customer or load
point evaluation and therefore the creation of similar indices for capacity
assessment appears to offer increased compatibility in overall assessment.
The basic approach is portrayed in Fig. 2.1 and therefore this chapter
will basically follow the format presented in Chapter 2 by illustrating the
development of the capacity models followed by the load models and the
subsequent convolution to create the system risk. indices. As in the LOLE
approach, the basic system representation is that shown in Fig. 2.2.
Transmission elements will be introduced in Chapter 6.
The frequency and duration (F&D) method requires additional system
71

R. Billinton et al., Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems

© Roy Billinton and Ronald N Allan 1984
72 Reliability evaluation of powe
powerr systems

data to that used in in Ihe

the basic probabilistic
pro babil istic methods. Figu re 2.3(a) illus-
trates the fundamental two-state model model for a base load generat ing unit.
The LOLE or LOEE methods rnethods utilize the steady-state
s te ady-state availability
ava ilability AA and
un avai labil ity UU parameters for this
the unavailability t h is m model.
odel. The F&D technique
utilizes in addition
a ddition 10 to A&U
A&U,, the transition rate parameters A and ~. The
basic concepts associated with wilh frequency and durationduratio n analysis are de-de-
scribcd E'lgilleerillg Systems and therefore are no t repeated in
scribed inindetail in E,tgilleerillg
this text. The fundamental
fundamen tal relationship however howevcr can be obta obtained
ined from
Equat ion 2. J(b).

Ava ilability A
Availability A :: -
_~_ : l
~-
A. + JL A.
f : AA (3. I)
The freq uency of encou
encountering
ntering state
state 0 in Fig. 2.3(a) is the probahility of
bei
being
ng in the state multiplied by the rate of depart
departure
ure from the sstate.
tate. In
the case of the two-state
tWO-Slate model it is also eq ual to 10 Ihe
the probability of not
bcing in the slate
state multiplied byby the rale of en lrytry (Equation 2.I(a)). In aa
mo
morere general se nse the freq ue ncy of a particular condition can be
frequency be
expressed as the math
mathematical
ematical expectat
expectation
ion of encountering the boundary
wall surro
surrounding
unding that condition.
condit ion. The freq
frequency
ue ncy o f entry isis equal
qe ual to the
freq uency of leav ing. This concept of frequency
frequency frequency balance
balance was presented
prcsented in
Engineering Systems as a means of form formulating
ulating equatio
equationsns for
fo r the
the
probabi1ities.
solution of state transition model probabilities.

3.2 The generation model

3.2.1 Fundamental development

The concepts can perhaps be most easily seen see n by usi
using
ng a simple
ismple numerical
numerical
example. The system described in Table 2.7 cont contains
ains the basic data
required for both the LOLE and Ihe the F&D met methods.
hods. This sect ion illus-
trates Ihe
the development
development of a capacity model u sing the fundamental
fu ndamental rela-
tionship shown by Equation
Equalion (3.1). This is not a practical
practical approach for
using a digital computer; the recursive technique
large system analysis using
shown in Section 3.2.2 should
should be used
used .
If each
cach unit can exist
ex ist in two states, then there are 2~ statcs
states in the total
to tal
system where n = number of unils units (i.e. 2 3 in this case). The total
total number
of states in the system of T able 2.7 are ecnumerated
numerated in Table 3. l.
These states can also be represen ted as astate a state t ransition ddiagram
iagram as
shown in Fig. 3.1. This diagram enumerates all the possible system states
and also shows the transition modes (rom oone ne state
stateto10another.
ot
anher. As an
example, given thai
that the system is in State
Stale 2 in which un unitit I i s down and
the others are up, the system can transit to States I,I, 55 or 6 in Ihe the