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Shell LNG Outlook 2018 Presentation Slides PDF
Shell LNG Outlook 2018 Presentation Slides PDF
Shell LNG Outlook 2018 Presentation Slides PDF
CONTENTS
The energy challenge Unprecedented LNG capacity expansion 45% complete Lack of supply investment risks future global LNG market
growth
Growing economies need more and cleaner energy Global LNG market continues to defy expectations
LNG buyers and their needs are changing
Queensland Curtis LNG Facility, Australia
Policy actions for clean energy support gas and LNG 29 mt increase in LNG imports in 2017
LNG buyers signing shorter and smaller contracts
Gas plays growing role to meet energy challenge LNG accommodates China growth and seasonal demand
Liquefaction investment needed to meet demand growth
Gas supports renewables Spot prices continue to reflect strong demand for LNG
OECD leading the move to gas and renewables for power Physical and financial liquidity increases as market
generation evolves
Strong China gas demand driven by growth outside power Fast, flexible FSRUs continue to increase LNG imports
LNG is the fastest growing gas supply source Demand for LNG in transport grows globally
LNG provides new form of energy security
01
EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT
CREATING MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR
GAS AND LNG
According to the World Over a billion people continue As per IEA, it is expected The world currently emits The World Health
Bank, global population is to live without electricity while that renewable energy could 32 billion tonnes of Organization (WHO) has
expected to increase from another billion struggle with increase significantly by energy-related CO2 each found that outdoor air
around 7 billion today to unreliable supplies of electricity. 2040. However, we will still year. To limit the rise in pollution in both cities and
over 9 billion by 2050, According to the International need large amounts of oil global temperature to 2°C, rural areas is estimated to
with 66% living in cities. Energy Agency (IEA) New and gas to provide the full the IEA has calculated that cause some 3 million
Policies Scenario, global range of energy products energy related CO2 premature deaths a year
energy demand is expected to that the world needs. emissions need to fall to worldwide.
grow by 30% between 2015 around 18 billion tonnes a
and 2040. year by 2040.
India
600,000
China
400,000
Asia air quality index
Extreme
High
200,000 Medium
Population size
Pakistan Vietnam
Bangladesh South Korea
Thailand
0 Myanmar
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Coal share in electricity mix (2017)
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and Verisk Maplecroft Q4 2017 data
Increasing recognition of EU policies supporting Policies favour gas and Policymakers targeting
environmental benefits coal phase out renewables air quality
G20 endorses the role of More than 10 countries China reforms gas market to Berlin closes local coal-fired
natural gas in energy announce coal phase-out increase competitiveness of power plants to improve air
transition ambitions - 25% of coal delivered gas quality
power capacity in EU
IEA credits levelling of global South Korea’s 8th Basic Plan for Beijing meets ambitious
CO2 emissions to coal EU confirms reforms to Energy prioritises renewables 2017 air quality targets,
displacement strengthen EU Emissions and gas, while not sanctioning supported by coal to gas
Trading Scheme new nuclear and coal switching
Global energy demand growth by fuel Global gas demand growth by sector Global gas demand growth by region
BCM BCM BCM
20,000 5,000 5,000 13%
20% 7% 2%
10% 7% 6% 14%
27% 33%
18% 14%
46% 45% 38%
16,000 4,000 4,000
0 0 0
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
Flexible gas generation complements solar to provide Flexible LNG supply balances hydro generation to provide
reliable power generation in California reliable power in Brazil
Net load, MWh Reservoir level BCM/Month
30,000 100% 1.00
10,000 0% 0.00
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017, IHS Markit and CAISO data
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Natural gas Coal Nuclear
Hydro Other renewables Biofuels and waste Hydro Other renewables Biofuels and waste
Oil Oil
200 40 240
150 30 230
100 20 220
50 10 210
0 0 200
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2016 Electricity Industrial Res, comm Transport 2017
& heat
Gas demand (LHS) Change YoY (RHS)
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, China National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs data; latest estimates for 2017
LNG demand:
2,000 400
4% CAGR
1,000 200
0 0
2017 Domestic Pipeline LNG imports 2035 2017 Asia Europe Americas Middle East 2035
production imports & Africa
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
LNG SOLVES GAS MARKET UNCERTAINTIES: LNG RESILIENT TO ITS OWN UNCERTAINTIES:
02
STRONG LNG
FUNDAMENTALS
EXCEEDED
EXPECTATIONS
IN 2017
40 293
75% 300
30
50% 200
20
25% 100
10
0 0% 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Nameplate capacity additions Share online (nameplate capacity)
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Total exports Australia US Africa Rest of world Total imports North Asia South Europe Rest of world North West
Europe
Previous consensus forecast (as of late 2016) Actuals Previous consensus forecast (as of late 2016) Actuals
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie and Poten & Partners 2016 and Q4 2017 data
12
0
Egypt
Belgium
Jamaica
Poland
India
Korea
US
Chile
Malta
UK
Argentina
Lithuania
Japan
Malaysia
Greece
UAE
Colombia
Sweden
Kuwait
Thailand
Italy
Pakistan
Turkey
China
Indonesia
Norway
Finland
Portugal
Taiwan
Dom Rep
Puerto Rico
Canada
Singapore
Brazil
Mexico
France
Israel
Spain
Jordan
Netherlands
-4
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie and Poten & Partners data 2016 and Q4 2017
80%
30
60%
20
40%
10
20%
0 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
China Japan, Korea, Taiwan Rest of World
LNG imports Contracted LNG supply Other Europe North West Europe
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017, S&P Global Platts, ICE data and Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data
20 20%
15 15%
10 10%
5 5%
0 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Energy price range Henry Hub Brent
NBP JKM (Platts) Japan LNG Import
Range 2010-2015 2016 2017
Coal (ARA)
Source: Japanese customs data (Japan LNG import), S&P Global Platts (JKM), ICE (NBP, Brent, ARA coal), NYMEX (Henry Hub)
Spot LNG supply Spot LNG deliveries ICE JKM LNG (Platts) futures
Cargoes Share spot Cargoes Share spot Cargoes Lots (10,000 MMBTU)
1200 30% 1200 30% 180 54,000
0 0% 0 0% 0 0
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Australia US Qatar JKT China South Asia
Middle East Europe Americas
Other Re-exports % spot (RHS) % spot (RHS)
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017, S&P Global Platts and the ICE data
Deliveries to FSRUs
MTPA FSRU share FSRU picture to be added
35 14%
30 12%
25 10%
20 8%
15 6%
5 2%
FSRU importing markets
0 0%
Existing Under Construction & Development Proposed
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
03
SUPPLY
INVESTMENT
REQUIRED TO
MEET LONG-TERM
DEMAND
GROWTH
500
30
400
300 20
200
10
100
0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LNG supply in operation LNG supply under construction Demand forecasts Year of investment decision
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie, FGE, BNEF and Poten & Partners Q4 2017 data
500 80%
400
60%
300
40%
200
100 20%
0 0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2017
Other market drivers Declining domestic gas production Traditional markets Liquid or liberalising markets
Average contract length Average contract volume New long-term contract credit rating
Years MTPA Share of contract volume
20 2.5 100%
16 2.0 80%
12 1.5 60%
8 1.0 40%
4 0.5 20%
0 0.0 2009 0%
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
80%
60%
MISMATCH
FINANCIERS LNG PRODUCERS LNG BUYERS END-USERS
BETWEEN
40% Look to ensure Seek long-term Seek smaller, Look to avoid
BUYER
revenue LNG sales to more flexible long-term
AND
20% certainty secure financing purchases to contracts that
SELLER
remain are not in line
NEEDS
competitive in with their
0% downstream competitive
2008-2010 2015-2017 market position
Supply project Portfolio Trader
Intermediaries
SUMMARY External environment creating more opportunities for gas and LNG