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Weather Criterion Explained PDF
Weather Criterion Explained PDF
8 International Conference on
the Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Navales
695
Abstract
Following the reopening of the Intact Stability Code by the International Maritime Organisation
(IMO), a number of questions are being raised concerning the practical applicability of Resolution
A.562 known as the Weather Criterion on modern passenger ships and answers sought on a way
forward by way of either re-examining and suitably tuning the criterion to reflect current (and
emerging) ship particulars or adopting merging approaches/philosophies to assessing ship safety,
using first-principles performance assessment tools. This paper attempts to provide pertinent
answers to these questions.
Coupling these to rapidly changing trends and excitations, it is further assumed that the
to intensifying competition particularly with ship is acted upon by a gust wind
respect to knowledge-intensive safety critical represented by a lever l w 2 = 1.5 ⋅ l w1 . This is
vessels (e.g. cruise liners) has closed the gap
translated into an 1.5 = 1.2247 increase
between knowledge and application on ship
safety to the point that, rather worryingly, of the wind velocity, assumed to affect the
front-end research tools and findings are used ship for a short period of time but at least
to build and sustain competitive advantage. In equal with half of the natural period under
this respect, vigilance and caution on the use of the assumption of resonant ship response.
immature new technology to assessing safety at d) The requirement for stability is formulated
sea must now be exercised to its maximum. as follows: should the ship roll freely from
the off-equilibrium position θ1 with zero
With this in mind, this paper describes yet angular velocity, the limiting angle θ 2 to
another visit on the issue of weather criteria the lee-side calculated on the basis of the
using all the arsenal of tools currently at the condition b > a (Figure 1) should not be
disposal of a Naval Architect, to scrutinise the exceeded during the ensuing half-cycle.
simplifying assumptions inherent in these This limiting angle is either the angle
criteria and to use the derived results as a basis where significant openings are down-
to make suitable recommendations on a way flooded, the vanishing angle θ v , or the
forward. angle of 50 deg, which can be assumed as
an explicit safety limit, whichever of the
three is the lowest. Expressed as an energy
WEATHER CRITERION BY MODERN balance, the work done by the wind
PREDICTION TECHNIQUES excitation as the ship rolls from the
weather-side to the lee-side should not
2.1. IMO weather criterion exceed the potential energy at the limiting
angle θ 2 .
Basics of the criterion
Mathematical model
z’
y'
Gs
ρ
rGs ρ
Z
ri
x'
Y
O
ρ ρ
FRe storing FF −K direct integration of static
( )
l w = 1.5 ⋅ z ⋅ 0.3 + 0.7 ⋅ cos 2 (ϕ ) and
pressures on actual C wind adjusted so as to match the wind heeling
geometry lever in ( 1 ).
ρ
FRadiation convolution techniques
ρ Turbulent wind velocity time series are
FDiffraction spectral techniques commonly decomposed into a mean speed
ρ value and random fluctuations (turbulence)
FManoeuvring ,Rudder empirical formulae
ρ around it as in (6) below (see discussion in
FDrift ,Current , Wind, Viscous empirical formulae §1.1). In this study a Davenport wind spectrum
is used as shown in (7) next:
A correction for viscous effects on roll motion
N −1
is applied based on an established empirical Vw (t ) = Vw + ∑ 2 ⋅ S w (ωi )⋅ dωi ⋅ cos(ωi ⋅ t + σ i ) (6)
method proposed in [ 6 ], where the viscous i =0
S w (ω ) = 4 ⋅ K ⋅
Vw2
⋅
X D2 exceeding the value θ1 , assumption (b) of
(7)
ω
(1 + X )
4
2 3
D
§1.1
ω • To estimate the likelihood of wind gust
X D = 600 ⋅ events leading to wind heeling levers in
π ⋅ Vw
K = 0.003 excess of 50% above the average wind
heeling lever and of duration half the vessel
σi random phase angles, 0 − 2 ⋅ π
roll natural period, assumption (c) of §1.1
Vw = 26 m/s, mean wind speed at 10m above • To estimate the likelihood of ship response
the sea level with potential capsize as a result of
combined wind and waves excitation,
YE
assumption (d) of §1.1
X
x'
β + q6
In this respect, the sample vessel shown in
y'
Gs'
X0 Figure 2, was subjected to numerical
Y O
simulations for a range of scenarios as
Y0 β
described below, using the mathematical model
described in §0.
E
O0
XE The environment was considered using the
wave & wind combined effect of unsteady wind and
corresponding random waves. The wind
Figure 6: Conventions used for environment conditions are described by the Davenport
description [Coordinate systems: inertial earth wind-gust velocity variance spectrum ( 7 ). The
fixed EXEYEZE, inertial initial O0X0Y0Z0, sea state is modelled by the JONSWAP wave
inertial moving with mean ship speed OXYZ, amplitude variance spectrum, with significant
and non-inertial body-fixed Gsx’y ’z’] wave height of Hs=11m, deriving from the
ITTC recommend relationship between wind
After re-arranging the whole system into a speed (26m/s) and sea state, [ 13 ]. Both spectra
matrix form as a set of twelve differential are illustrated in Figure 7.
equations of the first order, it is then solved for
position in space of the centre of gravity of the
intact ship rρGs = ∫ vρs ⋅ dt and three rotations
through a 4th order Runge-Kutta-Feldberg
integration scheme with variable step size.
• To estimate the likelihood of a ship rolling The ship loading was assumed to be such as to
around her equilibrium at θ 0 , with angles match the natural period of approximately
th
8 International Conference on
the Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Navales
701
Period [s]
2
2 ⋅π m1 v 2 h
f (a,τ ) = ⋅ ⋅ 1 + ⋅ ⋅R (8)
ν m0 4 τ ⋅ m1
2
a2 1 2 ⋅ π
R = exp − ⋅ 1 + 2 ⋅ 1 −
2 ⋅ m0 ν τ ⋅ m1 Wind gust-velocity amplitude [m/s]
m0
Figure 19: Joint probability density functions
m0 ⋅ m2 spectral width parameter,
ν= −1 of gust-velocity and wave amplitudes with
m12
respective periods
spectrum narrow if ν<<1.0
Deriving from the above, it is estimated that
mi spectral moments of the the assumption of a wind gust excursion of
random process in 22.47% from the mean wind speed of 26m/s
question that leads to a 50% increase in the wind heeling
lever from its mean, is a likely event with
Applying the above to the wind gust Davenport probability of being exceeded of
spectrum, shown in Figure 7, reveals that the 7.5 s
5.82
m
s
considered process is not narrow-banded, as
indicated by the spectral width parameter v ,
1− ∫ ∫ f (a,τ )⋅ da ⋅ dτ = 44.1%
0 0
which is equal to 1.339 in this case, hence Using this assumption as a basis for the
violating somewhat the assumptions underlying weather criterion, as quoted in (c) of §1.1, is
formulae ( 8 ). thus reasonable.
However, considering the zero up-crossing
period for the wind turbulence process shown 2.4. Deductions from the ship roll response
in Figure 10 and Figure 11, of approximately
3s, it can be seen that this period approximates Unlike the wind turbulence process, roll
the most likely periods estimated by ( 8 ) and response due to random excitation, can be
shown in Figure 19 below. It seems reasonable, considered a narrow-banded random process.
therefore, to proceed with formulae ( 8 ) for a This allows application of the well-known
relative assessment of likelihood of occurrence work of Michael Ochi on extreme value
of specific wind gust excursions. statistics, [ 10 ], for establishing likely extreme
roll excursions due to wind and wave
excitation, such as shown in Figure 15 and
Figure 16. Ochi has derived a simplified
method for the prediction of the extreme values
of the maxima of a stationary and Gaussian
random process defined by a random sample of
size n . For a narrow-banded process it can be
th
8 International Conference on
the Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Navales
705
assumed that the probability density function of amplitude occurrences can be predicted in 48
the excursions is a Rayleigh distribution. Thus, hours duration sea conditions with wind of
the probability distribution f(x) of amplitudes x 26m/s and waves of Hs=11m:
of a response conforming to Gaussian random
process of given spectral moment m0, can be T = 48 hours, TR =15 s, m0 = 18
written as: a63 = 21.3 deg a1 = 24.9 deg
1
x2 1
x − 2⋅m0
f ( x) = ⋅e 0.8
m0
f ( a) 0.6
g( a)
function is: 0.4
0.2
x2
−
F (x ) = 1 − e 2⋅m0
0 0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
0 a 30
Considering the above, the question of [9] Ochi, M.K., “Ocean Waves”,
acceptability conserning the ensuing risk would Cambridge, Ocean Technology, Series
still remain to be considered and rhis is an 6, 1998.
altogether different (and more difficult)
problem. [ 10 ] Ochi, M.K., “On prediction of extreme
values”, SNAME, March 1973
th
8 International Conference on
the Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Navales
707
[ 11 ] Boettcher, F., Renner, C., Waldl, H.P. [ 14 ] Francescutto, A., Serra, A. and
and Peinke, J., “ On the statistics of Scarpa, S. “A Critical Analysis of
wind gusts“ , Department of Physics, WheatherCriterion for Intact
University of Oldenburg, August 20, Stability of Large Passenger
th
2002. Vessels”, Proceedings, 20
International Conference on
[ 12 ] Press, H., Meadows, T. and Hadlock, Offshore Mechanics and Archtic
I.,“A re -evaluation of data on Engineering (OMAE), June 2001,
atmospheric turbulence and airplane Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
gust loads for application in spectral
calculations” , Report 1272, National [ 15 ] Vassalos, D., “A Critical Look into
advisory committee, NACA technical the Development of Ship Stability
notes, 1955. Criteria based on Work/Energy
Balance”, RINA Transactions,
[ 13 ] The Loads and Responses 1986, pp 217-234.
Committee, 22nd ITTC
Conference, 1999.
th
8 International Conference on
the Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Navales
708