Concept of probability

8.1 Basic Definitions

The term probability can be roughly defined as in the following

Probability: A value between zero to one, inclusive, describing the relative

possibility (chance or likelihood) a happening will occur.

8.1.1 Experiment, outcome and event

For an introduction of the concept of probability and its related theories, understanding of
some basic definitions is required. Three definitions are of key importance in probability
studies. They are

Experiment: A process that leads to the occurrence of one and only one of
several possible observations.

Outcome: A particular result of an experiment.

Event: A collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment.

Example 8.1
A coin is tossed. This is an experiment. The possible outcomes are
Heads (H) or Tail (T). There are two possible event, they are Heads (H) or Tail (T).

Example 8.2
A die is rolled. Here
Experiment: throwing the die.
All Possible Outcomes:
1 2 3 4 5 6
Some possible events:
1) Rolling an even number
1 2 3 4 5 6
2) Rolling a number greater than three
1 2 3 4 5 6
4) Rolling a number four or less
1 2 3 4 5 6

Example 8.3

Let two dice are thrown.

Here

Experiment: throwing the dice.

All Possible Outcomes:
(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)

Some possible events:

1) Rolling a double
(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)

2) Rolling an even total

(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
3) Rolling a total greater than six
(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)

4) Rolling a total four or less

(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)

Example 8.4
Count the number of the students in STA 101 class who scored above 40 marks in Mid
Term 1.
All possible outcomes:
None scored above 40
One student scored above 40
Two students scored above 40
…..
…..

Seven students scored above 40

…..
…..

All Eighty five students scored above 40

Some possible events:

1) Less than five students scored above 40
2) More than ten students scored above 40
3) The number of students scoring above 40 is between five to ten.

8.1.2 Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events

Other two very important definitions for probability studies are as follows:

Mutually exclusive events: A set of events are known as mutually exclusive if

the occurrence of one of the events means that none of the others can occur at the
same time, and no two of them have outcomes in common.
Collectively exhaustive events: A set of events are known as collectively
exhaustive events if at least one of the events must occur when an experiment is
conducted.
Example 8.5

From example 2, where the experiment was throwing a single die. The events A , Rolling
an even number having outcomes {2, 4, 6} and the event B , Rolling a odd number
having outcomes {1, 3, 5} are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
8.1.3 Sum of probabilities

If a set of events are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive then the sum of the
probabilities of the events is one.

Example 8.6

From example 8.5, the events A , Rolling an even number having outcomes {2, 4, 6} and
the event B , Rolling a odd number having outcomes {1, 3, 5} are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive. Now
3 1
Probability of event A = = , and
6 2
3 1
Probability of event B = = ,
6 2
1 1
Hence sum of the two probabilities is + =1
2 2

8.2 Approaches of Defining probability

There are two approaches of defining probabilities.

1. Classical approach
2. Empirical approach

8.2.1 Classical approach

For the classical definition the understanding of the equally likeliness is required.

Equally likely outcomes: If each of the outcomes of an experiment has the same
likelihood or chance to occur, the outcomes can be treated as Equally likely outcomes.
For the examples discussed above we can assume that the outcomes are equally likely.

Classical probability: Suppose that an experiment has N possible outcomes, all

equally likely. Then the probability that a specified event occurs equals the
number of ways, f , that the event can occur, divided by the total number of
possible outcomes. In Symbols,
 Number of ways event can occur f
Probability of an event = =
Total number of possible outcomes N
Number of favourable outcomes
= .
Total number of possible outcomes
For the classical approach to be applied, the outcomes must have the same chance of
occurring (equally likely), also the set of outcomes must be are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive.
Example 8.6

From example 8.1, in the experiment of tossing a coin, the probability of the event that
the coin lands a Heads can be obtained as follows:
Total number of possible outcomes N = 2 (H or T)
Number of favourable outcomes (for the event H) f =1
f 1
Probability of an event = =
N 2
Example 8.7

From example 8.2, find the probability of

I. Rolling an even number
II. Rolling a number greater than three
III. Rolling a number four or less.

Solution:
I. Total number of possible outcomes, N = 6
Let A be the event of rolling an even number.
Possible outcomes for A = {2, 4, 6}
Number of favourable outcomes for the event A , f = 3
f 3
Probability of A = =
N 6
II. Total number of possible outcomes, N = 6
Let B be the event of rolling a number greater than three.
Possible outcomes for B = {4,5, 6}
Number of favourable outcomes for the event B , f = 3
 f 1
Probability of B = =
N 2
III. Total number of possible outcomes, N = 6
Let C be the event of rolling a number four or less.
Possible outcomes for C = {1, 2, 3, 4}
Number of favourable outcomes for the event C , f = 4
f 4 2
Probability of C = = = .
N 6 3
Example 8.8
In the experiment of throwing two dice, find probabilities of
1) Rolling a double, 2) Rolling a even total, 3) Rolling a total greater than six, and
4) Rolling a total four or less.

Solution:

We have all Possible Outcomes are:

(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)

(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
Number of possible outcome, N = 36

1) Favorable outcomes for rolling a double

(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
 Let A be the event of rolling a double.
Number of favourable outcomes for the event A , f = 6
f 6 1
Probability of A = = =
N 36 6
2) Favorable outcomes for rolling a even total
(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
Let B be the event of rolling an even total.
Number of favourable outcomes for the event B , f = 18
f 18 1
Probability of B = = =
N 36 2
3) Favorable outcomes for rolling a total greater than six
(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
Let C be the event of rolling a total greater than six.
Number of favourable outcomes for the event C , f = 21
f 21 7
Probability of C = = =
N 36 12
4) Favorable outcomes for rolling a total four or less
(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
 (1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
Let D be the event of rolling a total four or less.
Number of favourable outcomes for the event D , f = 6
f 6 1
Probability of D = = =
N 36 6
8.2.2 The Empirical concept:

Another way to define probability is based on the relative frequencies. The probability of
an event happening is determined by observing what fraction of time the similar events
happened in the past. In terms of formula:

Number of times event occurred in the past

Probability of an event = .
Total number of observations

Recall relative frequency distribution. The relative frequency of a class interval can be
treated as the probability that the variable takes value within the limits of that class.

Example 8.9

A study of 751 business administration graduates of the University of Toledo revealed

383 of the 751 were not employed in their major area of study in college. For illustration,
a person who majored in accounting is now the marketing manager of a tomato
processing firm. What is the probability that a particular business graduate will be
employed in an area other than his or her college major?
Solution:
Total number of students or observations = 751
Let event A = A particular business graduate will be employed in an area other
than his or her college major.
Number of times event A occurred in past = 383
Therefore
Number of times event occurred in the past
Probability of A =
Total number of observations
 383
= = 0.51
751
Example 8.10

Consider the weight data of 100 male students of an Australian university, the
probabilities that the weight of a student lie within the limits of the class are same as the
relative frequency of that class.
Weight Number of Relative The probability that a value
(kg) students Frequency lie within the class limits
60-62 5 0.05 0.05
63-65 18 0.18 0.18
66-68 42 0.42 0.42
69-71 27 0.27 0.27
72-74 8 0.08 0.08
Table 8.1: Probability distribution of the weight of 100 students

Now, probability that a randomly chosen student from the university would weigh
between 66 to 68 Kg is 0.42.

8.3 Basic properties of probabilities

Probability of an event has the following properties:
Property 1: The probability of an event is always between 0 and 1, inclusive.
Property 2: The probability of an event that cannot occur is 0 and the event is called
an impossible event.
Property 3: The probability of an event that must occur is 1 and the event is called a
certain event.
Property 4: If a set of events are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive then
the sum of the probabilities of the events is one.

8.4 Notation and Graphical displays for events

8.4.1 Probability Notation

For convenience, we use letters such as A, B, C , D,..., to represent events. The
relationship among events can be expressed using the following notations:
(not E ): The event E does not occur,
( A & B ): The event “both A & B occur” [meaning the same as ( B & A )]
( A or B ): The event “either A or B or both occur” [meaning the same as ( B or A )]

If E is an event then P(E ) represents the that the even E occurs. It is read “ the
probability of E ”.

8.4.2 Graphical displays for events

The events and the relationship between also can be represented by Figures known as
Venn diagram. The event (not E ) consists of all outcomes not in E and usually known
as the complement of E . Following is a Venn diagram for events E and (not E ).

Figure 8.1: The events E and (not E )

The different relationships among events are illustrated in the following Venn diagrams:

Figure 8.3: The event ( A or B ) is

Figure 8.2: The event ( A & B ) is
shown by shaded area
shown by shaded area
Figure 8.4: Two Mutually exclusive Figure 8.5: Two Mutually Non-exclusive

events events

Figure 8.6: Three Mutually

exclusive events

Figure 8.7: Three Mutually Non-

exclusive events
Example 8.11

A frequency distribution for the ages of the 40 students in a class is presented in the
following Table:
Age 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
(years)
No. of 1 1 9 7 7 5 3 4 1 1 1
Students

One student is selected at random. Let

A = event the student selected is under 21
B = event the student selected is over 30
C = event the student selected is in age of 20s, and
D = event the student selected is over 18
Determine the following events and find their probabilities.
a) (not D )
b) ( A & D )
c) ( A or D )
d) ( B or C )
Solution:

a) (not D ) is the event D does not occur- the event that the student selected is
not over 18, that is, is 18 or under. From the table, the event (not D ) comprises
the two students in the class who are 18 or under. Hence
Number of students who are 18 or under
P (not D) =
Total number of students
2
= = .05
40
b) ( A & D ) is the event both A and D occur- the event that the student
selected is both under 21 and over 18, that is, is either 19 or 20. From the table,

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 the event ( A & D ) comprises the sixteen students in the class who are 19 or 20.
Hence
Number of students who are 19 or 20
P(A & D) =
Total number of students
16
= = .4
40
c) ( A or D ) is the event either A or D or both occur- the event that the student
selected is either under 21 or over 18 or both. From the table, every students in the
class is either under 21 or over 18. The event ( A or D ) comprises all the 40
students in the class, and consequently the event is a certain event. Hence

Number of students who are either under 21 or over 18 or both

P ( A or D ) =
Total number of students
40
= =1
40
d) ( B or C ) is the event either B or C or both occur- the event that the student
selected is either over 30 or is in age of 20s or both. From the table, 29 students in
the class are either over 30 or is in age of 20s or both. The event ( B or C )
comprises the 29 students. Hence
P ( B or C )
Number of students who are either over 30 or is in age of 20s or both
=
Total number of students
29
= = .725
40

Rules of Probability

There are several very important rules for finding probability. The rules refer to different
situation and are applicable in the appropriate situation.

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9.1 Special Addition rule

This rule for finding probability is only applicable for mutually exclusive events. The rule
states:
If event A and event B are mutually exclusive, then

P ( A or B )= P ( A )+ P ( B ).

More generally, if the events A , B , C , … are mutually exclusive, then

P ( A or B or C or …)= P ( A )+ P ( B ) + P( C ) + ….
In words, for mutually exclusive events, the probability that one or another of the events
occurs equals the sum of the individual probabilities.

Example 9.1

Recall the weight data of 100 male students in example 10. Let A , B , C , … denote the
events that the weight of a randomly chosen student fall in the class intervals 60-62, 63-
65, 66-68, ….

Weight Event Number of Relative P( event)

(kg) students Frequency
60-62 A 5 0.05 0.05
63-65 B 18 0.18 0.18
66-68 C 42 0.42 0.42
69-71 D 27 0.27 0.27
72-74 E 8 0.08 0.08

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Now the probability that a student selected will weigh between 63 to 71 can be expressed
as ( B or C or D ). The events B , C and D are mutually exclusive and hence by
Special addition rule,

P ( B or C or D )= P ( B ) + P( C ) + P( D )
= 0.18+0.42+0.27 = 0.87

9.2 The Complementation Rule

For any event E ,

P ( E )= 1- P (not E ) .
In words, the probability that an event occurs equals one minus the probability that the
event does not occur. Simplifying the relation,

P (not E ) =1- P ( E ).

Example 9.2

From, Example 9.1, the probability that a student selected will weigh less than 72 kg can
be expressed as (not E ), where E in the table represent the event that a selected student
weighs between 72 and 74.

From Table in Example 10, we have

P ( E )=0.08
Thus
P (not E ) =1- P ( E )
=1-0.08 = 0.92
9.3 General Addition rule

The special addition rule allows us to find the probabilities of event ( A or B ) from the
probabilities of event A and event B , provided that event A and event B are mutually

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exclusive. For events that are not mutually exclusive, a different rule -the general
addition rule can be used.

Figure 9.1: Two Mutually Non-exclusive events

In Figure 9.1, Looking at the two mutually non-excusive event A and event B , it can be
seen that if the probability of event ( A or B ) is calculated by adding up the two
probabilities of event A and event B , the probability of the dark region ( A & B ) is
counted twice. To account for this we need to subtract ( A & B ) from the sum. Hence the
general addition rules can be written as
If A and B are any two events, then
P ( A or B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A & B )
In words, for any two events, the probability that one or the other (or both) occurs equals
the sum of the individual probabilities less the probability that both occurs.

Example 9.3
Consider an experiment of selecting one card at random from a deck of 52 playing cards.
Find the probability that the card selected is either a spade or a face card.

Solution:
Let
A = event the card selected is a spade
B = event the card selected is a face card
E = event the card selected is either a spade or a face card.

We can write, E = ( A or B)

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 Event B
Event A
A♠ 2♠ 3♠ 4♠ 5♠ 6♠ 7♠ 8♠ 9♠ 10♠ J♠ Q♠ K♠
A♣ 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 5♣ 6♣ 7♣ 8♣ 9♣ 10♣ J♣ Q♣ K♣
A♥ 2♥ 3♥ 4♥ 5♥ 6♥ 7♥ 8♥ 9♥ 10♥ J♥ Q♥ K♥
A♦ 2♦ 3♦ 4♦ 5♦ 6♦ 7♦ 8♦ 9♦ 10♦ J♦ Q♦ K♦

Let us illustrate the individual cards and determine the following probabilities by
counting the favorable and possible outcomes:
13 12 3
P ( A )= , P ( B )= , P( A & B) =
52 52 52
Thus
P (E) = P( A or B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A & B)
13 12 3 22
= + − =
52 52 52 52

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