Accelerating Into the Future: A Multifaceted Analysis of Electric Vehicles

By: Aidan Jones, Kasandra Zavala, and Mackenzie Gray

Professor: Zoltan Mester
November 29th, 2017
HON 376: Sustainability in an Unsustainably Structured World
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Summary

This report describes how and to what extent electric vehicles (EVs) can lessen the

impact that transportation has on global warming. There is a brief history of EVs, including a

report of their current status. EV emissions are then evaluated and compared to internal

combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Later, we compare popular alternative fuel vehicles

(AFVs) to EVs. Finally, we discuss additional consumer benefits associated with EVs.

The EV still has some hurdles to overcome. However, it is currently the most convincing

answer to transforming the transportation sector. Its efficiency and minimum additional required

infrastructure make it an attractive option. However, it is necessary to improve the range and cost

of these vehicles for more consumers to be interested. It is also essential to educate the public on

the practical, economical, and environmental benefits of EVs in order to integrate them more into

the mainstream market.

Purpose

Transportation is one of the most significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. It

makes up around a quarter of total emissions, both domestically and abroad (“Fast Facts”). Thus,

finding ways to cut them is crucial to the fight against climate change. EVs are one answer to

this problem. There are other alternative fuels on the market. However, electricity seems to be

the leading choice as of now. Qualities such as its limited additional infrastructure, reduced

maintenance, and cheap cost make electric attractive as an AFV. Manufacturers produce more

and more EVs every year. So it is imperative to investigate how effective EVs will be in the long

run.
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This report will give a brief history of EVs. It will then compare the performance,

economics, and infrastructure of EVs to traditional combustion engines and other AFVs.

Ultimately, it will argue that EVs are a necessary part of transforming the transportation sector to

reduce our impact on the planet.

Discussion

History

It isn’t well-known that the EV used to dominate. In fact, the late 19th through the early

20th century is dubbed the “golden age” of the EV. At its peak in at the end of World War II,

there were 50,000 EVs registered in the United States. The Model T and other ICEVs eventually

dwarfed EVs. Yet, EVs continued to play essential roles. For example, EVs were used in

America during gas shortages. British milk companies also used electric vans for decades to

deliver milk. In the end, the popularity of ICEV won over the general population. Interest has

come and gone for EVs over the years. Not until recently, however, has technology become

advanced and affordable enough to make the EV a reality for the average buyer (Høyer).

The State of EVs

Until recently, technology that made EVs mass marketable to the United States consumer

was absent. The consumer appetite for EVs was and is dependent on a variety of factors. This

includes price, technology, range, charging station availability, energy cost, maintenance cost,

and resale value. Because of recent advances in these areas, consumers are now taking EVs

seriously. Only a decade ago, EVs were not able to compete with gas-powered vehicles. It was

only in 2008 with the release of the Tesla Roadster, the only zero-emission car in production at
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the time, that the public began to consider EVs (Drori). Soon after, companies such as Chevrolet

and Nissan began to offer their own EVs as well.

Now, more than 263 million ICEVs are on the road in the United States. And in 2016

alone, dealers sold more than 7.1 million ICEVs (“Number of Cars”). It is clear that the EV

market has a massive catching up to do. To have a substantial effect on greenhouse emissions,

millions upon millions of EVs would have to make their way to market and replace ICEVs in the

process.

Even Tesla, the largest EV manufacturer to date, is dwarfed in overall automobile sales

when compared to the major automobile manufactures production (McCarthy). There were 17.6

million ICEV cars and trucks sold in the United States during 2016. The total combined EV sales

in the United States accounted for only less than a half of one percent of the total new car sales in

2016 (“Car Sales”).

ICEVs’ make up approximately 22% of greenhouse gas emissions released into our

atmosphere (“Fast Facts”). Even if half of current ICEVs were retired, that would only be an

11% reduction of total greenhouse gas emissions. And while a 11% reduction is significant, even

that is currently unfeasible. This cutback would require that 172 times as many EVs sold last

year be placed into use. At the same time, drivers would have to retire just as many ICEVs as

well.

Our research is mostly limited to the United States. However, it is still relevant to

evaluate the international EV market. It’s essential to determine if the supply and demand sides

of EV production are a fad or here to stay. It’s also worthwhile to predict whether the EV market

ultimately taking over the ICEV market is a viable scenario. From 2010 through 2016,

worldwide production to date and related sales have steadily increased to more than two million
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EVs on the roads in 2016. China is the world’s largest consumer of EVs. It has approximately

40% of the world’s market share followed by the US (“International Energy Agency”). And in

September 2017, China stated it was planning to cease all production and sales of ICEVs in the

near future, being one of the first to implement this sort of idea (“The World’s Largest Car

Market Just Announced an Imminent End to Gas and Diesel Cars”).

Emissions

EV sales make up less than one half of one percent of total car sales. Thus, the share of

EVs would have to substantially increase to affect pollution. But, it is worth exploring to what

extent EV could reduce pollution compared to ICEVs.

For instance, a report from Devonshire Research Group suggests that manufacturers like

Tesla are not as environmentally beneficial as they claim. The report states that how

environmentally friendly an EV is depends on how local electricity is generated. The source of

electricity to Tesla manufacturing plants impacts the pollution a car emits over its lifetime, for

example (“Tesla Motors, Inc,” 28-29).

David Abraham, an expert on rare earth elements, states that many of the materials

required to produce EV batteries destroy mines and their surrounding environments.

Additionally, Abraham reminds us that these battery packs are large. The batteries in a single

Model S Tesla, for instance, weigh over a thousand pounds. This translates into a significant

amount of precious metals. Car batteries have mostly avoided landfills for the past decade.

However, recycling efforts have been challenging. As the EV market grows, this issue will as

well.

According to the data, EVs are greener in almost all cases than ICEVs. Shrink that

Footprint, an independent research group, performed a meta-analysis of studies that attempted to

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estimate the emissions from manufacturing EVs and ICEV. They found that EV manufacturers

emit approximately 10.5 tons of CO2 per EV. In contrast, regular car manufacturers release about

8 tons of CO2e per ICEV. The disparity between these numbers is due to the battery in electric

cars. Batteries need limited, hard-to-acquire resources, contributing to their higher footprint.

Furthermore, reliance on a battery results in the average life of a car being approximately 50,000

km less than their ICEV counterparts (150,000 km and 200,000 km, respectively). That works

out to be about 70 g CO2e/km for EVs and 40 g CO2e/km for IVECs (Wilson).

After manufacturing, an EV does not directly emit anymore into the atmosphere. So, it is

up to the source of its electricity to determine its efficiency. Shrink that Footprint also does a

comprehensive MPG analysis in their report. They take major countries and rank them by their

amount of pollution. Then, they analyze how the efficiency of an electric car in these countries

would convert to traditional MPG readings.

At worst, they found that the average electric car would get about 20 MPG in India. It is

important to mention that this measurement also includes the emissions from manufacturing

discussed above. Even at worst, an average electric car, including its manufacturing emissions,

has an efficiency a little less than the average IVEC MPG of 23.9 MPG (US Department of

Transportation). But the average IVEC also has to shoulder the emissions from manufacturing

which are, again, 40 g CO2e/km in addition to the emissions from driving. This disproves the

myth that EVs are more polluting than IVECs.

In a less polluting country, the results are much better for EVs. For example, in the United

States, EVs get around 40 MPG, comparable to recent hybrids. In the least polluting countries

like Iceland, EVs can have the equivalent of more than 200 MPG (Wilson). If countries were to

overhaul energy infrastructure to low carbon solutions, EV efficiency could be much better than
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what any other internal combustion engine could hope to achieve. In sum, the type of energy

source in a country matters how efficient an EV will be. In almost every case, the EV is more

efficient than an ICEV.

The differences from country to country are also reflected regionally within the United

States. David Biello, a writer for Scientific American, used U.S. Department of Energy data to

calculate that a Toyota Prius Hybrid and a Nissan Leaf EV both produce about 200 grams of CO2

per mile on average throughout the United States. This apparent paradox comes from differences

in energy sources across the country. An EV in California would only emit 100 grams per mile.

In Minnesota, an EV would emit 300 grams per mile (Biello). The discrepancy is due to

California's cleaner energy production compared to Minnesota's. Thus, some suggest a model

where particular areas of the country adopt a specific type of vehicle to maximize efficiency.

The time at which EVs charge also matter. For instance, charging at night in some

Northeastern states creates more pollution than the daytime (Biello). These states tend to run

their coal-burning facilities more later in the day. During the day, sources are greener and more

varied.

EV pollution is a situational phenomenon. It varies widely based on the type of car and

electricity source used to charge it. Yet, EVs are still much more efficient than their IVEC

counterparts on average. Even now, EVs can outperform gas-powered and hybrid vehicles in

many countries around the world.

Comparison to Other Alternative Fuel Vehicles

The U.S. Department of Energy recognizes the following fuels as popular alternative

fuels available for public consumption: biodiesel, electricity, ethanol, hydrogen, natural gas, and

propane (“Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles”). Where most of these fuel technologies
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currently fall short is in their availability. Fuels like natural gas have been mostly implemented in

heavy-duty vehicles, for example (“Natural Gas Vehicle Availability”). Thus, there are only a

little over 1,000 natural gas stations throughout the US (“Natural Gas Fueling Station

Locations”). Also, there are only nine compressed natural gas (CNG) consumer vehicles on the

market, all of which are vans or pickup trucks. In comparison, there are 16,533 charging stations,

45,242 public outlets, and 26 consumer sedan, wagon, or SUV-type EVs currently in America

(“Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology Vehicles,” “Electric Vehicle Charging Station

Locations”). Figure 1 lists the number of stations for each fuel type located in the U.S.

Also, most U.S. homes have electricity. Therefore, they already have the infrastructure

needed to charge their vehicle at home. Thus, in most places across the country, EVs are the

most accessible form of AFV.

Where some EVs struggle in relation to other AFVs is their range. Range has doubled

since the introduction of the EV to the mainstream consumer market in 1998 ("Datasets for All

Model Years”). However, the average range for 2017 EVs is 147 miles. The average range needs

to at least double to compete with existing ICEVs ("Datasets for All Model Years”).

Additional Consumer Benefits

Reducing emissions and pollutants into the environment is always a main concern when

manufacturing electric vehicles. In addition to the environmental benefits, there are many

incentives for consumers themselves. Gas prices are ever increasing. The average American

spends over $2,000 a year on gas alone. The average price of gas in the state of California has

increased to about $3.20, maintaining the reputation for having one of the highest gas prices in

the country (“How Much Americans Spend on Gas Every Year”). The average price for gas will

continue to increase due to tensions between countries and the strain on the oil industry. In the
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state of California, Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill allowing for a 12¢ tax increase on the

base gasoline excise tax. However, the revenue gained will be used for public transportation and

repairing roads (“What it Costs You and What it Fixes”). Because EVs do not require gas, none

of these charges and taxes are applicable, keeping costs for EV drivers at a minimum.

High prices of EVs often deter consumers from purchasing clean cars. What many do not

realize, is that tax credits are also given to EV owners. Each specific type of electric vehicle is

eligible for a different “Clean Vehicle Rebate.” As an example, the 2017 Ford Focus Electric is

eligible for a $2,500 clean vehicle rebate, while also eligible for $7,500 federal tax credit. Thus,

the overall cost is reduced by $10,000 (“Drive Clean Vehicles”). Figure 2 in the appendix shows

more costs and rebates given for different electric cars.

Access to charging stations may pose a challenge to those considering purchasing an

electric car. The median price for a 240V charger (EVSE) is $636, while national average ranges

between $378 to $894 (“2017 Electric Car Chargers”).The cost includes the unit in addition to

labor costs, permits, and other features needed or desired. There are also two different types.

Despite these installment costs, many public areas and parking lots offer charging and preferred

parking for those with EVs.

Congestion in city areas plagues commuters who have to travel long distances to get to

work, school, or to simply get around. Los Angeles reigns as having some of the worst traffic in

California. Access to the carpool lane is left specifically to those riding with others, as they

reduce emissions by riding together. With a clean air vehicle and the proper “Access OK” tag,

riding alone on the carpool lane is allowed. The tag reduces the length of travel, and in turn helps

with the limited access to charging stations (Eligible Vehicle List). The less amount of time spent

on roads is always better, especially for those with electric vehicles that do not have a large
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range. Because access to carpool lanes reduces time spent driving, destinations are reached faster

and therefore the ability to charge the car.

Of course the environment should be a main concern when deciding which car to get, but

personal factors stand out to consumers. Economic and other personal incentives truly push

buyers and consumers to begin the transition process from gas powered vehicles to clean air

vehicles. Letting the public know of the perks of EVs can lead to an increase in sales, while

reducing pollution in the process.

Conclusion
Interest in EVs has seen a resurgence from a decades-long intermission due to the looming

threat of climate change. EVs have both positive and negative effects on the environment.

However, EVs seem to be the leading answer to reducing transportation emissions. They are the

most widely accepted form of AFV on the market today, and their market share continues to

grow. They are also on average more efficient than their gas-powered counterparts. Furthermore,

the infrastructure for EVs is easier to implement than other forms of alternative fuel. EVs also

present economic and practical benefits for the consumer as well.

Future Action
The two main hurdles to overcome for the electric vehicle are range and cost. One survey

found that the number one concern in owning an EV is the lack of public charging stations near

respondents’ homes (“Electric Vehicle Survey Methodology and Assumptions”). There is also

cost. Although some Tesla models, for example, have a range comparable to some ICEVs, better

safety features, and a lower maintenance cost, they are prohibited by their high price tags. In the
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same survey, 13% of respondents were concerned with price (“Electric Vehicle Survey

Methodology and Assumptions”).

However, like most reservations about new ideas, they can be assuaged with information.

In fact, one of the most popular responses in the survey was “I don’t know enough about plug-in

electric vehicles to have concerns” (“Electric Vehicle Survey Methodology and Assumptions”).

There should be education on all levels of society about the benefits, data, and effects associated

with EVs. Once the public knows the truth behind EVs, they will become more accepted.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the brave, thoughtful scientists who have archived data

and continue to research issues relate to climate change in this dark time for science and our

environment.

Appendix
Figure 1: Number of Fuel Stations Located in the U.S. per Fuel Type

Biodiesel Electricity* Ethanol Hydrogen Natural Gas** Propane

199 16,533 3,020 39 1,017 441

*This does not include 45,242 public outlets also located in the U.S.
**Includes compressed and liquid natural gas (CNG and LNG).

Figure 2: Plug-in 2017 Electric Vehicle Costs

Vehicle Starting MSRP Clean Vehicle Rebate Federal Tax Credit

Chevy Bolt $37,495 $2,500 $7,500

Fiat 500e $32,995 $2,500 $7,500

Electric
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Nissan $30,680 $2,500 $7,500

Leaf
Electric

Hyundai $29,500 $2,500 $7,500

Ioniq
Electric

Ford $29,120 $2,500 $7,500

Focus
Electric

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