29 août 2018, 13h www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 31.4 18.4 37.1 9.7 1.4 0.8 0.7 -
sièges 40 7 74 4 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 2.1% 0.0% 97.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 30.8% 23.1% 34.7% 9.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 29% 3% 68% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 26.8% 30.5% 31.7% 9.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 14% 39% 47% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 60.1% 4.7% 22.4% 8.2% 3.4% 0.6% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 42.1% 14.5% 29.0% 11.1% 2.2% 0.2% 0.9% 95% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 26.5% 23.6% 40.2% 6.2% 2.5% 0.3% 0.7% 4% 2% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 23.4% 8.6% 58.4% 4.9% 1.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 28.8% 1.5% 62.5% 3.7% 0.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 44.4% 0.0% 48.8% 2.7% 0.3% 3.3% 0.5% 34% 0% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 18.6% 29.6% 39.1% 8.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0% 15% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 40.3% 7.9% 44.8% 3.6% 0.3% 2.4% 0.5% 33% 0% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 9.2% 29.6% 49.1% 8.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 14.4% 27.3% 45.8% 10.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 19.7% 20.0% 49.8% 7.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 34.4% 36.8% 18.9% 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 29% 71% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 13.2% 23.9% 50.6% 9.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 52.2% 10.4% 24.7% 9.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 21.0% 28.3% 32.0% 14.9% 2.8% 0.2% 0.9% 3% 31% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 29.2% 13.2% 46.8% 8.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 12.5% 24.4% 50.6% 8.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 26.9% 21.8% 43.3% 6.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 47.9% 8.8% 31.5% 8.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.8% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 29.3% 14.8% 45.9% 6.5% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
22.9% 29.9% 37.9% 6.0% 0.7% 1.9% 0.6% 1% 17% 82% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 38.5% 15.4% 36.1% 7.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 63% 0% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 28.1% 3.6% 56.1% 2.2% 0.7% 8.7% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 23.9% 32.4% 33.0% 8.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7% 4% 50% 47% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 62.2% 4.4% 27.3% 3.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 19.6% 10.0% 61.1% 5.7% 0.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 38.2% 14.5% 37.3% 6.8% 0.4% 2.2% 0.6% 58% 0% 42% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 74.6% 0.0% 16.0% 4.5% 3.6% 0.7% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 14.8% 23.4% 51.3% 8.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 16.0% 19.3% 54.9% 7.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 31.3% 24.9% 35.1% 7.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 27% 4% 68% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 29.0% 31.5% 29.0% 9.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 21% 53% 26% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 42.7% 13.6% 33.0% 6.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 86% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 25.7% 43.6% 21.1% 8.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 49.1% 8.2% 32.4% 8.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 9.3% 11.4% 17.8% 56.7% 3.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 9.3% 13.9% 68.8% 5.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 19.5% 21.8% 47.5% 8.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 9.9% 25.8% 24.9% 35.5% 2.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0% 11% 7% 82% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 45.0% 12.3% 27.6% 13.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 36.8% 12.6% 41.0% 6.6% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 33% 0% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 16.1% 22.3% 51.2% 8.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 41.3% 31.5% 17.6% 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 84% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 69.7% 0.0% 19.7% 3.9% 4.9% 1.2% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 21.3% 21.3% 38.3% 15.8% 0.8% 1.9% 0.7% 1% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 69.7% 0.0% 20.5% 6.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 34.4% 19.8% 31.1% 10.4% 2.0% 1.6% 0.6% 69% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 16.1% 23.9% 49.5% 8.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 9.1% 33.9% 44.9% 9.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0% 12% 88% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 17.2% 34.9% 39.4% 7.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0% 35% 65% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 14.2% 34.6% 39.4% 9.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0% 34% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 19.9% 32.9% 36.2% 8.8% 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0% 41% 58% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 64.8% 1.9% 23.1% 7.1% 2.0% 0.2% 0.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 21.8% 6.7% 63.0% 5.0% 0.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 49.4% 4.8% 36.5% 7.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 93% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 38.9% 13.7% 34.1% 9.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.7% 72% 0% 28% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 23.2% 18.6% 48.1% 7.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 0.8% 22.5% 66.5% 7.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 34.2% 7.5% 20.9% 33.4% 2.9% 0.2% 0.9% 55% 0% 1% 44% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 33.6% 23.6% 33.1% 6.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.6% 49% 3% 48% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 28.7% 22.1% 40.2% 6.7% 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 6% 1% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 7.7% 26.8% 55.0% 7.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 23.2% 11.4% 55.0% 7.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 37.1% 10.8% 43.9% 4.8% 0.4% 2.4% 0.6% 23% 0% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 22.3% 15.0% 54.6% 3.6% 1.8% 2.0% 0.6% 50% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 59.1% 6.8% 23.3% 5.7% 3.8% 0.6% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 16.0% 31.4% 34.5% 13.4% 3.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0% 42% 58% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 44.5% 10.5% 30.5% 8.0% 4.5% 1.2% 0.7% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 28.5% 19.5% 43.4% 6.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 3% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 7.4% 24.9% 57.1% 7.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 13.7% 52.4% 25.1% 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 30.2% 22.8% 26.1% 17.3% 2.6% 0.2% 0.9% 63% 10% 26% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 32.4% 22.7% 35.5% 7.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 38% 2% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 18.8% 11.1% 21.2% 46.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 39.8% 18.3% 33.3% 5.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.6% 77% 0% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 8.5% 25.3% 55.9% 7.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 21.0% 18.2% 50.6% 8.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 24.2% 15.0% 48.1% 6.7% 1.8% 3.6% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 54.6% 4.7% 22.7% 12.2% 4.1% 1.0% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 69.2% 0.0% 22.9% 1.8% 4.5% 0.9% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 18.5% 15.5% 53.5% 9.9% 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 65.9% 0.0% 18.7% 8.0% 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 32.2% 20.5% 35.4% 10.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 36% 0% 63% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 40.5% 15.5% 33.2% 9.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 79% 0% 21% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 15.2% 30.4% 38.5% 12.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.9% 0% 17% 83% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 65.2% 0.0% 25.1% 8.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 33.2% 9.0% 49.1% 5.3% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 3% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 13.6% 25.1% 50.6% 8.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 22.0% 40.6% 28.8% 7.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0% 95% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 11.8% 24.7% 52.7% 8.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 17.1% 27.4% 45.8% 5.6% 2.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 32.6% 20.8% 34.5% 8.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 42% 1% 57% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 21.4% 31.9% 25.5% 20.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 4% 80% 16% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata
43.5% 15.6% 31.2% 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 91% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 73.4% 0.0% 18.2% 3.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 45.1% 25.6% 23.1% 5.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 99% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 21.1% 28.3% 25.5% 21.6% 2.5% 0.2% 0.8% 7% 58% 29% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 4.4% 29.8% 56.1% 7.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
27.7% 24.6% 33.0% 13.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 21% 9% 70% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 30.4% 25.9% 30.3% 10.0% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 48% 15% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 40.9% 15.4% 24.2% 12.9% 5.0% 1.0% 0.7% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 18.4% 20.8% 49.7% 8.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 18.4% 23.1% 47.8% 8.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 9.8% 29.1% 48.7% 9.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 61.2% 0.0% 24.8% 7.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques21.8% 18.6% 20.7% 35.2% 2.6% 0.2% 0.9% 3% 1% 3% 92% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 31.6% 20.0% 39.8% 7.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 15% 0% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 15.8% 26.1% 47.6% 7.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 28.1% 24.0% 29.7% 15.0% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 35% 13% 52% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 37.6% 15.1% 38.9% 6.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.7% 46% 0% 54% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 20.3% 24.8% 40.0% 12.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 3% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 20.3% 25.2% 30.4% 21.0% 0.8% 1.6% 0.7% 4% 25% 71% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 11.4% 27.1% 50.9% 8.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 28.9% 20.9% 38.4% 9.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 10% 0% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 32.7% 25.8% 32.9% 7.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 39% 8% 53% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 23.0% 24.4% 41.4% 9.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1% 2% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 31.5% 12.0% 46.3% 6.4% 0.7% 2.3% 0.6% 5% 0% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 47.4% 9.6% 32.7% 6.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.7% 95% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 9.6% 32.9% 46.3% 9.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 9% 91% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 38.8% 16.6% 25.0% 13.2% 4.8% 0.9% 0.7% 95% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 54.0% 5.9% 21.9% 14.5% 2.5% 0.2% 0.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 40.0% 16.3% 34.9% 6.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.6% 69% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 61.3% 0.0% 22.9% 8.9% 5.7% 0.6% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges

Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)