DFG project IUCliD

I U Impact of Uncertainties on Climate Data

analyses

C D
li Extend traditional time series methods to
sequence of PDFs

Develop “uncertainty aware” approaches

to tackle important dynamical questions
 Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1093–1111, 2014
swami et el.: Estimation of sedimentary proxies
Goswami et el.: Estimation of sedimentary proxies
www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/21/1093/2014/ 11
11
doi:10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014
© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

= d, ment and onthen the fast to variations

use the of chainthe proxy. rule In to order calculate
to analyti-
0
⇡ x cally
(d(r(t))) quantify 0
d (r(t))the the 0
r (t).various fast/slow varying
Equivalently, in graphical components
follow of the theproxy dashed and linestheir uncertainties
from t via in r and a thorough d to xfashion and we
ly the should
685 Estimation in principle,
corresponding of sedimentary as
slopes stated ofbefore,
proxy therecords proceed
calibration withcurve
together a separate
withanalysis.
associated This is because
uncertainty
he RM age model d(r), and the proxy-vs.-depth curve the knowledge of the probability
distributions of the proxy at a given time are not sufficient
hat B.you
Goswami encounter
, J. Heitzig , K. on
1,2 1 Rehfeldthe , N.way
1,3,* Marwan (the
1
calibration
, A. Anoop 4 5
, S. Prasad , and curve 1,3,6
J. Kurths
1to comment
Potsdam on the
Institute for Climate Impactvariations, especially
Research, Transdisciplinary Conceptsin the presence
& Methods, 14412 Potsdam, ofGermany
have 2 to
Department be
non-negligible
smoothened
of Physics,
uncertainty
University of Potsdam, for of
this).
estimation.
Karl-Liebknecht In Str. a similar
24–25, 14476 Potsdam,fash- Germany
3
Department of Physics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, 12489 Berlin, Germany
he
690
second
4
Dept. of Earth derivative
Sciences, Indian can
Institute of be
The best one could say about the variability ofKolkata,
Science estimated
Education and Research,by applying
741252, the India
proxy-
oduct Institute of Earth and 2
5
rule: Environmental 2 ⇡ofx high
Science,00 University of Potsdam,0 2 0
Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 2 +
24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
6vs-time
Institute ind Systems
for Complex x/dtand Mathematical
regions (d(r(t)))
dating
Biology, d uncertainty
University (r(t))
of Aberdeen, r Aberdeen,
(t)would be UK
AB24 3UE,
00 0 2 0 0 00
some+aggregate
*
now at: Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
(t)))tod estimate
(r(t)) r (t) x (d(r(t))) measures
d (r(t))ofr variability (t). such
Correspondence to: B. Goswami (goswami@pik-potsdam.de)
ally, as if the slope or curvaturecurve
proxy-vs.-depth of theshows proxy acurve sinusoidalor the mo-
onent mentary
of10amplitude
Revised: Septemberamplitude ⇠ and
2014 – Accepted: of3 October
a period
certain sinusoidal
Received: 15 May 2014 – Published in Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.: 24 June 2014
length
2014 – Published: 1dcomponent
11 November around
2014 (at
695
D =eachd(r(t)) calendar(as could age). be Forseen, example, e.g., afrom simple way to ob-
a wavelet
tain
Abstract. a “central”
Sedimentary estimate
proxy records constitute aof the
significant sloperecordsdx/dt
as probability would be
distributions onto
a precise, error-free
is),portion
oneof the can conclude
recorded thatusthe
evidence that allows true timescale
to investi- climate-vs.-time
that makes further time series analyses and inter-
gateuse MoTaBaR
paleoclimatic conditions to find the
and variability. mean
However, un- estimates
comparisons ofR = r(t),
proxies relatively D =and clear. Our ap-
= t understanding
simple
contains
certainties a sinusoidal component around proach time
provides aTcoherent of
past = T =that
in the dating of proxy archives limit our ability of age uncertain-
to d(r), andof X
fix the timing x(d)
events that proxy
and interpret correspond
record tiesto given
within values
sedimentary proxy records t, involve radiomet-
me intercomparisons.
amplitude
R = r, or
⇠
While
D
and
=
there aand
period
are various
d, then
length
use
age-modeling ap-
the
that
ric dating. can
chain It can bebe
rule to
esti-
calculate
potentially used within existing age mod-

as 1t ⇡archives,
proaches to improve the
1d/d 0 estimation of
(r(t)) 0 the age–depth rela-
r d(t). eling structures to bring forth a reliable and consistent frame-
dx/dt
700 tions of x0 (d(r(t)))
⇡ relatively little focus has(r(t)) r (t). Equivalently,
0 been placed0 on
in graphi-
work for proxy record estimation.
the propagation of the age (and radiocarbon calibration) un-
cal terms, follow the dashed lines from t via r and d to
certainties into the final proxy record.
We present a generic Bayesian framework to estimate
x and multiply
nterpreting the corresponding
the posterior slopes aofnote
probabilities: the calibration
on
 A new representation of time series

Observable

Time
 A new representation of time series

Observable

Time
 A new representation of time series

Observable

Time
 A new representation of time series

Observable

Time
 Observable

New representation for time series

Time evolution of an observable can be

represented as a sequence of time-ordered PDFs

PDF := Probability Density Function Time

 Observable

New representation for time series

Time evolution of an observable can be

represented as a sequence of time-ordered PDFs

not necessarily independent

or identically distributed!

PDF := Probability Density Function Time

 Motivation - The ENSO example

ENSO is quantified using the average

temperature of predefined boxes in the
equatorial Pacific

We propose: Use the gridded

temperatures in the box to construct a
sequence of PDFs

Image courtesy: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php

1877-78 1997-98
 Problem:

How do we analyse a time series of PDFs?

 More specific Problem:

How do we detect abrupt transitions in a time series of PDFs?

Time series Recurrence network communities

Distance matrix Recurrence network adjacency

Transitions in SST anomalies from the equatorial Pacific

Detected Periods of phase-locking

transitions with the PDO
Transitions in SST anomalies from the equatorial Pacific

The transitions detected in the equatorial

Pacific SST anomalies correspond to phase-
locking periods between ENSO and the PDO

Detected Periods of phase-locking

transitions with the PDO
Asian summer monsoon proxies


for the Holocene

Asian summer monsoon proxies for the Holocene

Bond events
(Ice rafting in the
North Atlantic)
Asian summer monsoon proxies for the Holocene

Bond events
(Ice rafting in the
North Atlantic)
Asian summer monsoon proxies for the Holocene

Bond events
(Ice rafting in the
We validate the synchronous occurrence of ice North Atlantic)

rafting events in the North Atlantic and

weakening of the Asian summer monsoon

“uncertainty aware” framework!

Asian summer monsoon proxies for the Holocene

Bond events
(Ice rafting in the
We validate the synchronous occurrence of ice North Atlantic)

rafting events in the North Atlantic and

weakening of the Asian summer monsoon

“uncertainty aware” framework!

Revision submitted to Nature Communications two weeks ago

synthetic example
synthetic example
Conclusion
 Conclusion

Represent time series as sequence of PDFs

 Conclusion

Represent time series as sequence of PDFs

Detecting abrupt transitions with recurrence network communities

 Conclusion

Represent time series as sequence of PDFs

Detecting abrupt transitions with recurrence network communities

Application to real-world examples:


Transitions in equatorial Pacific coincides with ENSO-PDO phase-locking

Transitions in stock indices related to periods of politico-economic volatility

Transitions in Asian summer monsoon proxies synchronous to Bond events
Goswami
timate the et
B. Goswami el.:proxy
final Estimation of sedimentary
et el.:uncertainties
Estimation of proxiesproxies
in sedimentary
an analytical fashion 9
and investigate how they are impacted by proxy-depth vari-
ability. If the proxy measurements were to have error, these
would simply be added to the final errors as is indicated by
Eq. A15.
The final proxy records estimated are shown in Fig. 6.
We compare our results with proxy records obtained from
a typical mean age model of the archive. The age model in-
volved OxCal P-Sequence modeling with three sedimento-
logical boundaries imposed a priori. Fig. 7 (panels A and B)
compares the final proxy estimates obtained using the Ox-
Cal P-sequence age model with those obtained using our ap-
proach — for both Ca-area and Al-area.

4 Discussion

4.1 Proof of concept

The synthetic examples shown in Sec. 3.1 illustrate the va-

lidity of our approach. In panel D of Figs. 4 and 5, the first
finding to note is that the 95% confidence band consistently
Fig. 7. Comparison of results with OxCal. The proxy records es-
contains
Figure 6. well
Holocene 95% of
over proxy the black
records fromcurve,
centraland 50%
the(a)
India. Theband
Int-
Fig.
Cal096. Holocene
calibrationproxy records
curve. Inset: from
the central
post-bomb India. A. The
calibration IntCal09
curve that timated by the present approach (red, dotted) compared to proxy
consistently contains about half of the black curve. In addi-