Progress S-curves (output)

As might be expected, the foregoing factors have a considerable impact on total production
especially as represented by the more familiar output or progress S-curves.

A complete determination of the project status and projections to final completion for
management action can perhaps best be tracked by an integrated cost/schedule system or
technique known as "Earned Value and Performance Measurement" (Kerzner 1989). The
earned value, i.e. the Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP), is determined at regular
intervals during the course of the project. At the same time, the Actual Cost of Work
Performed (ACWP) is also determined, and both are compared to the baseline plan which is
the Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS). By presenting these results graphically as S-
curves, the variances in cost and schedule can readily be seen, and by analyzing the results
relative to the baseline plan S-curve, estimates can be made of anticipated variations at
completion. The key elements of the technique are shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Earned value and performance measurement

The technique is especially useful on projects involving a large number of significant

activities by different trades and/or under conditions which change during the course of the
work. There are, however, several weaknesses in the approach (Meredith 1985). Cost data
must be collected which reflects the actual progress of the work, work in progress must be
measurable and it must be measured. Consequently, this form of tracking requires
significant additional effort or qualified dedicated staff to collect reasonably reliable data.
This is particularly true where large purchases of off-site equipment may involve staged
payment assessments.

Since the results are at best estimates of work-in-hand and the final results are estimated
projections, the technique is not usually considered worth the effort on most projects. The
exceptions are large complex projects, or projects on which this approach is required under
the terms of the contract. When the technique is adopted, an essential element in its
successful use is a realistically shaped baseline plan S-curve.

A better strategy for tracking progress is to identify the major critical activities on site that
are measurable and plot those S-curves as surrogates for the whole job or stages of the
job. Figure 4 shows three S-curves[2] illustrating different major activities. To facilitate
comparison they are shown plotted as percent progress against percent time.

Figure 4: Three examples of progress S-curves

Curve (a) shows progress on a 5560 pipe pile driving contract lasting 137 working days.
Curve (b) shows the cumulative progress on a 180,000 cu. yd. bulk excavation contract
lasting 15 weeks. Notice the progressive addition of plant as the work opens up in the
beginning, and the subsequent removal of plant as the availability of work runs out towards
the end. Curve (c) shows progress on a 7-month civil contract as reflected by the approved
monthly measurement progress billings.

Figure 5 shows measured progress on a 42,000 cu. yd. structural concrete activity of 16-
months duration in Ontario, Canada. This curve is interesting because it clearly shows the
slow down in progress over the winter months. The original data indicates that the virtual
cessation of activities due to cold weather was only two-and-a-half months. However, due
to the S-curve effects just before and after the cold weather cessation, the total impact of
this condition was closer to three-and-a-half months. In the preparation of the original
construction schedule, this situation could have been reasonably foreseen and an
appropriate adjustment made to the "standard" S-curve profile.
 Figure 5 - Placing of formed structural concrete.
Total concrete = 31 900 m3; total time = 16.5 months

S-Curves

In the first three parts of the series we have covered three static models of the innovation

management theory: Schumpeter, the Incremental – Radical dichotomy and the Henderson – Clark

model (if you have not you can click here to read part 1, part 2 or part 3).

Understanding these three theories will create a good (although not perfect) view regarding what

company will be in a better position to innovate and under what circumstances. One of the flaws of the

models, however, is that they do not predict when a technological discontinuity will take place, hence

why they are called static.

The first time most project managers become aware of the existence of S-Curves is when they are
requested by the client or senior management to include one in their next progress report.

This article explains what the mysterious S-Curve is, why it is an important project management tool, and
how to generate one.

What is a S Curve?
A S Curve is defined as "a display of cumulative costs, labour hours or other quantities plotted against
time. The name derives from the S-like shape of the curve, flatter at the beginning and end and steeper in
the middle, which is typical of most projects. The beginning represents a slow, deliberate but accelerating
start, while the end represents a deceleration as the work runs out".

(Source: Wideman Comparative Glossary of Common Project Management Terms v2.1

Copyright R. Max Wideman, May 2001)

There are a variety of S Curves that are applicable to project management applications, including:

← Man Hours versus Time S-Curve

← Costs versus Time S-Curve
← Baseline S-Curve
← Actual S-Curve
← Target S-Curve
← Value and Percentage S-Curves
Man Hours versus Time S-Curve: The Man Hours versus Time
S Curve is appropriate for projects that are labour intensive. It shows cumulative man hours expended
over time for the duration of the project. As man hours are a product of man power and working hours,
these may be adjusted together or individually in an attempt to keep the project on schedule. Projects
may require additional man hours to finish on time due to low productivity, delays and disruptions, rework,
variations, etc.

Costs versus Time S-Curve: The Costs versus Time S Curve is

appropriate for projects that contain labour and non-labour (e.g. material supply / hire /
subcontract) tasks. It shows cumulative costs expended over time for the duration of the project, and
may be used to assist in the calculation of the project's cashflow, and cost to complete.

Baseline S-Curve:
Prior to project commencement, a schedule is prepared outlining the proposed allocation of resources
and the timing of tasks necessary to complete the project within a set time frame and budget. This

schedule is referred to as the Baseline Schedule. From this

schedule, a Baseline S Curve is generated.

This S Curve reflects the planned progress of the project. If the project requirements change prior to
commencement (eg. change of scope, delayed start), the Baseline Schedule may require revision to
reflect the changed requirements.

Target S-Curve
Following project commencement, modification of the Baseline Schedule is usually required.
 Changes are continually made to the Production Schedule
(which is originally the same as the Baseline Schedule).

The production schedule reflects the actual progress of the project to date, and any revisions made
to tasks yet to commence or not yet completed.

From this schedule, a Target S Curve may be generated. This S Curve reflects the ideal progress of the
project if all tasks are completed as currently scheduled. In an ideal world, the Target S Curve will meet
the Baseline S Curve at the end of the project (On Time, On Budget) or finish below and to the left of the
Baseline S Curve (Early, Under Budget). In reality, it is not uncommon for the Target S Curve to finish
above and to the right of the Baseline S Curve (Late, Over Budget).

Actual S-Curve
The production schedule is updated on a regular basis throughout the duration of the

project. These updates include the revision of percentage complete for each task to date. Using this
information, an Actual S Curve may be generated.

This S Curve reflects the actual progress of the project to date, and may be compared with the
Baseline and Target S Curves to determine how the project is progressing.

During the project, the Actual S Curve will terminate at the Cut Off Date. This is the date the Production
Schedule was last updated. At the completion of the project, the Actual S Curve will meet the Target S
Curve.

Value and Percentage S-Curves : S Curves may be graphed as absolute values (i.e. Man Hours or
Costs) versus Time, or as percentage values versus Time.

Value S Curves are useful for determining Man Hours or Costs expended to date, and Man Hours or
Costs to complete.

Percentage S Curves are useful for calculating the project's actual percentage complete against target
and baseline percentage complete, and for calculating the project's percentage growth (or contraction).
S-Curves are an important project management tool. They allow the progress of a project to be tracked
visually over time, and form a historical record of what has happened to date.

Analysis of S Curves allows project managers to quickly identify project growth, slippage, determining
progress, calculating important project benchmarks on an ongoing basis and potential problems that
could aversely impact the project if no remedial action is taken.

Determining Growth: Comparison of the Baseline and Target S Curves quickly reveals if the

project has grown (Target S Curve finishes above

Baseline S Curve) or contracted (Target S Curve finishes below Baseline S Curve) in scope.

A change in the project's scopes implies a re-allocation of resources (increase or decrease), and the very
possible requirement to raise contract variations. If the resources are fixed, then the duration of the
project will increase (finish later) or decrease (finish earlier), possibly leading to the need to submit an
extension of time claim.

Determining Slippage: Slippage is defined as "the amount of time a task has been delayed from its
original baseline schedule. The slippage is the difference between the scheduled start or finish
date for a task and the baseline start or finish date. Slippage can occur when a baseline plan is
set and the actual dates subsequently entered for tasks are later than the baseline dates or the
actual durations are longer than the baseline schedule durations".

(Source: Wideman Comparative Glossary of Common Project Management Terms v2.1 Copyright R. Max Wideman, May 2001)
Comparison of the Baseline S Curve and Target S Curve quickly
reveals any project slippage (ie. the Target S Curve finishes to the right of the Baseline S Curve).

Additional resources will need to be allocated or additional hours worked in order to eliminate (or at least
reduce) the slippage.

An extension of time claim may need to be submitted if the slippage can not be eliminated or reduced to
an acceptable level.

Determining Progress: Comparison of the Target S Curve and Actual S Curve reveals the progress of
the project over time.

In most cases, the Actual S Curve will sit below the

Target S Curve for the majority of the project (due to many factors, including delays in updating the
production schedule). Only towards the end of the project will the curves converge and finally meet. The
Actual S Curve can never finish above the Target S Curve.

If the Actual S Curve sits above the Target S Curve at the Cut Off Date, the Production Schedule should
be examined to determine if the project is truly ahead of schedule, or if the Production Schedule contains
unrealistic percentage complete values for ongoing tasks.
Project Benchmarks: Percentage S Curves may be used to calculate important project benchmarks on
an ongoing basis, including:

← Project percentage growth (Target and Baseline S Curves)

← Project percentage slippage (Target and Baseline S Curves)
← Actual percentage complete against Target percentage complete to date.
← Actual percentage complete against Baseline percentage complete to date.