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Spontaneous thoughts on a humble creed

Recent developments in the context of Indo-

Pacific

04/08/201804/08/2018 Tridivesh Singh Maini Current Events, Politics alliances,

Australia, China, connectivity, India, Indo-Pacific, international relations, Japan, One Belt One Road,
Quad, transactionalism, Vietnam
At a time when a massive churn is taking place in the Donald Trump Administration (HR Mcmaster
was replaced as head of the NSA by John Bolton, while Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was replaced
with the more hawkish Mike Pompeo (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/03/21/indias-near-abroad-
irans-regional-moves/)), Alex Wong, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific
Affairs, gave a briefing with regard to the US vision for ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy, on April 3, 2018 (a day
before a trilateral dialogue (hĴps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/trumps-indo-pacific-policy-
expects-india-to-play-a-more-weighty-role/articleshow/63603456.cms) took place between senior
officials from India, Japan and US). Wong outlined the contours of the strategy, and spoke not just
about the strategic vision, but also the economic vision of the US, with regard to the Indo-Pacific.

A backgrounder to the Indo-Pacific, Quad, and the China Factor

For a long time, the US referred to the region as ‘Asia-Pacific’ (which China prefers), but the current
Trump Administration has been using the term ‘Indo-Pacific’. During his visit to East Asia and South
East Asia (hĴps://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/trump-praises-pm-modi-for-india-
s-astounding-growth-at-apec-summit-in-vietnam/story-jf5EJlsfXVsntKOyEH2pJI.html), in November
2017, the US President had used the term more than once (much to the discomfort of China) giving a
brief overview of what he meant by a ‘Free and Fair Indo-Pacific’. While speaking to a business
delegation at Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (hĴps://www.livemint.com/Politics
/shMBdUJiIW3qrmusX10VpL/Asean-Summit-Narendra-Modi-arrives-in-Manila-to-give-boost.html),
Trump spoke about ‘rule of law’ and playing by the rules. Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had
referred (hĴps://www.cfr.org/blog/tillerson-india-partners-free-and-open-indo-pacific) to the Indo-
Pacific and the Quad Alliance (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/03/05/quad-the-way-ahead-and-the-
key-challenges/) (consisting of US, India, Japan, and Australia) in an address at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (a Washington think tank) in October 2017, a week before his
India visit.

In order to give a further thrust to the Quad, representatives of all four countries met on the eve of
East Asia Summit in Manila. A statement (hĴp://mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/29110
/IndiaAustraliaJapanUS_Consultations_on_IndoPacific_Manila_November_12_2017) of the Indian
Foreign Ministry said:

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The discussions focused on cooperation based on their converging vision and values for
promotion of peace, stability and prosperity in an increasingly inter-connected region that they
share with each other and with other partners.

Before the members of the Trump Administration began to use this term, former Australian PM Julie
Gillard, during her visit to India in 2012, used this term, and the Joint Statement issued by both sides
stated:

India and Australia share a common interest in the Indian Ocean and in the maintenance of
stability and security through the Indian-Pacific region.

A 2013 White Paper on Defence (hĴp://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/2013/docs

/WP_2013_web.pdf) released by the Australian Department of Defence also used this expression, as
opposed to the earlier ‘Asia-Pacific expression’.

China has been dismissive of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy (hĴp://www.radioaustralia.net.au

/international/2018-03-08/china-mocks-australia-over-indopacific-concept-it-says-will-dissipate
/1741188), as well as the Quad alliance, saying both lack direction.

US Statement on Indo-Pacific, why India should be happy

If one were to look at the briefing by Alex Wong, there are clearly some points, which would make
New Delhi happy. First, he said the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ captures current realities beĴer than ‘Asia-
Pacific’. While commenting (hĴps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/trumps-indo-pacific-policy-
expects-india-to-play-a-more-weighty-role/articleshow/63603456.cms) on the Indo-Pacific, Wong
‘acknowledge[d] the historical reality and the current day reality that South Asia and in particular,
India, plays a key role in the Pacific, in East Asia and South-East Asia.’

Second, Wong, while praising the Modi administration, also spoke about a larger role for India in the
Indo-Pacific. Emphasizing on it’s democratic credentials, Wong made the point that:

India is a nation that is invested in a free and open order. It is a democracy. It is a nation that can
bookend and anchor the free and open order in the Indo-Pacific region, and it’s our policy to
ensure that India does play that role, does become over time a more influential player in the
region.

While categorically stating that the emphasis of ‘Indo-Pacific’ was on ‘free and open’, Wong also
made the point (hĴps://www.livemint.com/Politics/T0UMUEkwGBBp0CEĦiQUHK/Trump-team-
outlines-steps-to-implement-IndoPacific-strategy.html) that this strategy was not aimed at China, and
that ASEAN and India put together are much larger than China.

Precise contents of the strategy

Commenting on what exactly the US meant by a ‘free’ Indo-Pacific, Wong said

(hĴps://www.livemint.com/Politics/T0UMUEkwGBBp0CEĦiQUHK/Trump-team-outlines-steps-to-
implement-IndoPacific-strategy.html):

By free we mean, first of all, the international plane. We want the nations of the Indo-Pacific to be
free from coercion, that they can pursue in a sovereign manner the paths they choose in the
region, .. Secondly, we mean at the national level, we want the societies of the various Indo-Pacific
countries to become progressively more free – free in terms of good governance, in terms of
fundamental rights, in terms of transparency and anti-corruption.

Expanding on what the US means by ‘open’, Wong said (hĴps://www.livemint.com/Politics

/T0UMUEkwGBBp0CEĦiQUHK/Trump-team-outlines-steps-to-implement-IndoPacific-

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strategy.html):

Secondly, we mean more open logistics – infrastructure. There’s an infrastructure gap throughout
the Indo-Pacific. What is needed throughout the region to encourage greater regional integration,
encourage greater economic growth? We want to assist the region in doing infrastructure in the
right way, infrastructure that truly does drive integration and raises the GDPs of the constituent
economies, not weigh them down, …We also mean more open trade. Free, fair, and reciprocal
trade is something the United States has supported for decades and that the Trump
administration supports.

Not just India, but even other members within the Quad will welcome the articulation of this vision.
The fact that the Indo-Pacific narrative has gained momentum is evident from the recent trilateral
meeting between US-Japan and India, where representatives of all three countries agreed on giving a
further fillip to greater cooperation (hĴps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-us-japan-hold-
trilateral-meet-call-for-open-indo-pacific/articleshow/63613799.cms).

“All sides agreed to remain engaged and strengthen cooperation in support for a free, open,
prosperous, peaceful and inclusive Indo-Pacific region through partnership with countries in the
region,” the ministry said.

Focus on Economic Aspect and Connectivity

The Indo-Pacific narrative has also begun to focus on the economic aspect. During Australian PM
Malcolm Turnbull’s meeting with Trump, there was a discussion on connectivity between Quad
nations (hĴps://www.livemint.com/Politics/T0UMUEkwGBBp0CEĦiQUHK/Trump-team-outlines-
steps-to-implement-IndoPacific-strategy.html). While no specifics were discussed during the course
of this meeting, The Trilateral Infrastructure Working Group (India, Japan, and US), which met in
Washington DC in February 2018, also sought to come up with a coherent alternative to the ‘One Belt
One Road’ project.
th
During the 9 trilateral meeting (hĴp://www.deccanherald.com/content/668504/to-counter-chinas-
bri-india.html) of senior Indian, Japanese, and US officials, not only was there an agreement with
regard to a free and open Indo-Pacific, but also to review the key outcomes of the February 2018
meeting (hĴps://www.livemint.com/Politics/XCEKPauSSRpkWtjh60KeiM/India-Japan-US-to-
enhance-cooperation-on-connectivity-sec.html), and also sought to find ways through which
connectivity can be enhanced.

A statement released after the meeting between officials of all three countries stated:

[We have] explored practical steps to enhance cooperation in the areas of connectivity and
infrastructure development; counter-proliferation; counter-terrorism; maritime security, maritime
domain awareness and HA-DR (humanitarian assistance and disaster relief).

Problems with current vision

First, unlike his predecessors, Trump has not really given much emphasis to either democracy or
fundamental rights while dealing with countries, including those in South East Asia.

Trump, for instance, got along very well with the President of the Philippines (hĴps://www.cnbc.com
/2017/11/13/trump-does-not-publicly-rebuke-duterte-for-drug-war-killings.html), Rodrigo Duterte,
and did not raise the issue of extra judicial killings of drug dealers. On the other hand, he has praised
the Philippines and Singapore for taking a tough stance against drug dealers, even going to the extent
of saying that the US needs to follow similar rules.

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Even in his dealing with China, Trump has had issues with it not because of human rights issues, but
economic ones. The point about the US not being assertive enough on Human Rights issues was
made by Senator Elizabeth Warren during her visit to China (hĴp://thehill.com/policy/international
/381184-warren-slams-chaotic-foreign-policy-while-in-asia). This is important because Trump’s
indifference to political systems and human rights (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/04/03/47536/) is
not in sync with the ‘freedom’ component of US strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Interestingly, the Quad
Alliance has been pitched as a ‘concert of democracies’.

Open – Indo-Pacific?

When the US talks about an ‘Open’ Indo-Pacific, Trump’s insular economic policies began by the US
exiting from the Trans Pacific Partnership (hĴps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/24/business
/economy-business/u-s-may-rejoin-tpp-much-beĴer-deal-trump-says/), much to the chagrin of US
allies like Japan and Australia. Many would argue that China has benefited the most from Trump’s
decision to exit from TPP (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/01/27/is-trump-turning-the-us-into-the-
biggest-loser/).

Even tariffs imposed by the US have not impacted China, but allies like Japan (though so far it has
been calm and composed (hĴps://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/japan-braces-for-
trump-assault-on-trade-yen-policy-as-summit-looms/article23433212.ece) in its reactions). Similarly,
his approach on H1-B issues is a major obstacle to beĴer ties with India. Indian companies have
reduced their filing by nearly 50 percent (hĴps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/visa-and-
immigration/indian-companies-dramatically-reduced-h1b-visa-filing-us-daily/articleshow
/63592908.cms). Apart from this, the Trump administration’s policies have also led to a dip in the
number of Indian students enrolling (hĴps://qz.com/1215633/trumps-h-1b-visa-norms-are-keeping-
indian-tech-students-off-us-campuses/) in graduate programs of computer science and engineering.

Third, while there has been mention of the economic component and an emphasis on greater
connectivity, the US has been slow so far to keep pace and needs to accelerate projects like the Indo-
Pacific Economic Corridor, an idea proposed by previous Secretary of State John Kerry
(hĴp://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2119540/no-one-commenting-big-idea-trump-put-
forward-apec), but has not witnessed much progress on the ground (though the State Department has
been speaking off late about it). Given Trump’s transactional approach (hĴps://notesonliberty.com
/2018/03/07/trumps-humor-is-not-very-funny-to-the-worlds-liberal-democracies/) on security issues,
even towards allies like Japan and South Korea, it remains to be seen how far he goes with regard to
assisting big ticket infrastructural projects in the Indo-Pacific. If Indo-Pacific connectivity projects are
to be effective, it is important for some big ticket projects to take off on the ground.

So far only India and Japan have taken the lead

While in the security sphere, Japan and India are working closely with the US, in terms of important
connectivity projects, India and Japan are already working closely between each other. Both sides are
working on the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (hĴps://www.livemint.com/Opinion
/qTI0g1WCa8OIqRW8mKvl9H/Asia-Africa-Growth-Corridor-aims-for-peoplecentric-growth-s.html).
During Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s visit to India in December 2015, India gave its unequivocal
commitment to work closely with Japan in its ambitious vision ‘Partnership for Quality Infrastructure
(PQI). Both sides resolved to explore synergies (hĴp://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/a-
new-way-to-act-east/) between New Delhi’s Act East Policy and Japan’s PQI. The US and Australia
need to now join India and Japan so that this partnership becomes more effective.

Fourthly, if one were to look beyond symbolism and acronyms, then there is space for Vietnam,
which already has close strategic ties with countries in the Quad, to work not just individually but
collectively on connectivity projects. While India has already spoken about extending the India-

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Myanmar-Thailand highway into Vietnam (hĴps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy

/infrastructure/government-asean-in-talks-to-take-imt-highway-up-to-vietnam/articleshow
/62036567.cms) (Government of India is in talks with ASEAN), and Japan too is working on
important infrastructural initiatives, the US and Australia need to step up their efforts to get Vietnam
on board as an important stakeholder in terms of connectivity. Trump had articulated this vision
during his November 2017 visit, but the results need to show on the ground; perhaps the best bet
would be to push forward the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor vision, positioning Vietnam as an
important player.

Fifthly, it remains to be seen how his new team, including Bolton, approaches this issue. In the past,
there have been major differences between Bolton and New Delhi (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/03
/26/john-bolton-the-view-from-india/). The NSA has been skeptical of India. In addition to this, if
Bolton too is excessively isolationist like Trump, it is not good news for the Indo-Pacific strategy.

Finally, the US President needs to give greater importance to the State Department in order to take
forward such a complex vision. While using an expression is one thing, to achieve something tangible
in areas like connectivity, there is the need for an effective and efficient bureaucracy. There has been a
drastic reduction in State Department’s budget under Tillerson, and this certainly is not good news.

Conclusion

Indo-Pacific is a welcome concept, but it needs to move and there needs to be greater clarity on
economic issues, and more predictability (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/03/14/3-key-problems-
with-trumps-style-of-functioning/) on the part of the US. Countries like Japan and Australia will play
an important role in bolstering economic linkages and connectivity. New Delhi on its part should
work closely with Japan and Australia, while also seeking to strengthen linkages with Vietnam. The
US view about granting India a key role is good news for New Delhi, but if there are no significant
achievements in terms of greater connectivity, these are mere platitudes and nothing else.

Anodynes are meaningless in foreign policy!

2 thoughts on “Recent developments in the

context of Indo-Pacific”

1. Bolton’s Iran policy: could it strengthen the China-Russia-Iran-Pakistan axis? | Notes On

Liberty says:
04/12/2018 at 3:08 am
[…] the Indo-US nuclear deal, though later he lent his support. While the Trump administration
has sought to elevate India’s role in the Indo-Pacific region, Bolton has expressed the view that
there are some fundamental […]

Reply (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/04/08/recent-developments-in-the-context-of-indo-pacific
/?replytocom=53116#respond)
2. The Indo-Pacific: An emerging vision of Asia’s future – IAPS Dialogue: The online magazine of
the Institute of Asia & Pacific Studies says:
04/12/2018 at 6:09 am
[…] article was first published on the blog Notes on Liberty and can be found here. Image credit:
CC by Naval Surface […]

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