POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL SEPTEMBER 18th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto
• Opinions on Use of Notwithstanding
Clause, Council Reduction, and Toronto
Secession
• Mayoral Voting Intentions
• Issue Importance

18th September 2018

METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey that was conducted between
September 15th and 16th among a sample of
802 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Toronto. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.46% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TORONTONIANS STRONGLY OPPOSED TO FORD’S USE OF NOTWITHSTANDING CLAUSE

18 September 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Torontonians are strongly opposed to Premier Doug
Ford’s use of the notwithstanding clause to reduce the size of Toronto City Council from 47
to 25, a new Mainstreet Research survey has found.

The survey was conducted on September 15 and 16th among a sample of 802 adults, 18 years
of age or older living in Toronto. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.46% and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“Make no mistake about it: Doug Ford is on the wrong side of public opinion when it comes
to his use of the notwithstanding clause”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research. “65% of Torontonians say that they oppose the Premier’s move, with nearly 56%
saying that they strongly disapprove.”

The poll also found that Torontonians do not agree with reducing the size of City Council,
with just over 55% of respondents saying that they disapprove of the decision, with 46%
saying they strongly disagree with having a smaller Council.

“What is interesting is that opposition to both the use of the notwithstanding clause and
the reduction of City Council is opposed strongly by residents in nearly all areas in Toronto
– including the Premier’s home neighbourhood in Etobicoke,” Maggi added. “Only in North
York do we find more people narrowly agreeing with having fewer councillors.”

Torontonians also oppose having Toronto secede from the province of Ontario and become
an autonomous city within the Canadian federation, an idea first mused upon by mayoral
candidate Jennifer Keesmaat.

“Keesmaat was right to walk back her idea for Toronto secession because Toronto voters are
almost as opposed to the notion as the Premier using the notwithstanding clause,” continued
Maggi.

The poll also asked which mayoral candidate they were planning to vote for. Among decided
voters, incumbent John Tory leads with 61.8%, while Keesmaat has 25.6%. Faith Goldy has
6% support while 6.4% of Torontonians said they would support another candidate.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean
toward?

26.4%

45.5%

All Voters
4.7%

4.4%

llDecided
Voters Voters 19%

6.4%
John Tory Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another Candidate Undecided
6%
26.4%

45.5%

All Voters
25.8% Decided Voters
4.7%

61.8%
4.4%

19%

John Tory Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another Candidate Undecided

John Tory Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another Candidate
Do you approve or disapprove of the
following issue?

110

100

90

80

70

60

46%
47.3%
50

9.3% 55.7%

40

8.8% 16.7%
12.1%
30

10.3%

20
18.9%

10

0 32.6% 25.2% 17.2%

Council Reduction Notwithstanding Clause Toronto Secession

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove

 And what would you say is the top priority,
ortance
in other words, what issue are you most
concerned about?

5.3%
13.4%
10.7%

10.3%
8.5%
Issue Importance

2.8% Issue Importance5.3%

13.4%
10.7%

10.3%
8.5% 16%
11.6%
2.8% Issue Importance

16%
11.6%

21.3%
21.3%

ntability and Transparency City services

Accountability and Transparency
for seniors and children
City services for seniors and children Crime and Safety
Crime an
Housing Affordability Jobs and Economic Developmemt Property Taxes Traffic and Congestion

ordability Jobs and Economic Developmemt

Transit Another Issue Property Taxes Traffic a

Transit Another Issue

 Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean toward?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 45.5% 46.4% 44.6% 38.9% 35.3% 54.4% 56.5% 41.3% 42.2% 43.6% 55.8%
Jennifer Keesmat 19% 18.4% 19.5% 17.6% 22.2% 17% 19.8% 26.9% 19.9% 12.4% 16%
Faith Goldy 4.4% 5.7% 3.3% 3.7% 7.1% 4.7% 1.9% 2.8% 2.6% 6.1% 5.7%
Another Candidate 4.7% 5.4% 4.1% 4.9% 6.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.7% 5.6% 6.2% 3.5%
Undecided 26.4% 24.1% 28.5% 34.8% 28.7% 20.4% 18.5% 25.3% 29.7% 31.6% 19.1%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 61.8% 61.1% 62.4% 59.7% 49.4% 68.4% 69.3% 55.3% 60.1% 63.8% 69%
Jennifer Keesmat 25.8% 24.3% 27.3% 27% 31.1% 21.3% 24.3% 36% 28.3% 18.1% 19.7%
Faith Goldy 6% 7.6% 4.6% 5.7% 9.9% 5.9% 2.4% 3.8% 3.6% 8.9% 7%
Another Candidate 6.4% 7.1% 5.7% 7.6% 9.5% 4.4% 4% 5% 8% 9.1% 4.3%
Unweighted Frequency 608 336 272 97 147 207 207 250 250 136 117
Weighted Frequency 608 288 302 159 139 152 162 197 197 168 148

As you might have heard, the provincial government has passed the
Efficient Local Government Act, which will cut the size of City Council
by nearly half and will have Toronto residents elect 25 councillors to
City Hall instead of 47. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Strongly approve 32.6% 39.7% 26.3% 28.4% 32.6% 36.3% 34.4% 22.8% 32.7% 38.2% 39.3%
Somewhat approve 12.1% 12.9% 11.3% 10.7% 11.6% 14.1% 12.1% 12.5% 11.8% 14.6% 8.2%
Somewhat disapprove 9.3% 6.4% 12% 13.7% 7.9% 6.9% 7.5% 10.9% 12.1% 8.3% 6.8%
Strongly disapprove 46% 41.1% 50.4% 47.3% 47.8% 42.7% 46% 53.8% 43.5% 39% 45.6%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184

Do you approve or disapprove of the premier’s use of the

notwithstanding clause?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Strongly approve 25.2% 34% 17.3% 20.7% 25.3% 29.4% 26.3% 16.8% 20.2% 35% 26.9%
Somewhat approve 10.3% 9.9% 10.7% 13.1% 8.4% 9.2% 9.9% 9.3% 10.4% 9.9% 12.4%
Somewhat disapprove 8.8% 7.1% 10.3% 11.3% 10.4% 7.8% 4.1% 8.5% 9.1% 6% 12.7%
Strongly disapprove 55.7% 49% 61.7% 54.9% 55.9% 53.6% 59.6% 65.4% 60.2% 49.1% 48%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184
 Do you think that Toronto should separate from the province of
Ontario and function as an autonomous city with more legislative
authority within Canada?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Strongly approve 17.2% 22.7% 12.3% 13.8% 23% 17.1% 15.3% 20% 18% 15.2% 15.3%
Somewhat approve 18.9% 17.1% 20.4% 18.5% 18% 16.6% 23.4% 19% 20.2% 19.5% 17%
Somewhat disapprove 16.7% 14.7% 18.5% 15.3% 17.9% 17.8% 15.9% 18.2% 14.4% 16.3% 16.4%
Strongly disapprove 47.3% 45.5% 48.8% 52.4% 41.1% 48.5% 45.3% 42.8% 47.3% 48.9% 51.4%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184

And what would you say is the top priority, in other words, what issue
are you most concerned about?
18- 35- 50- Downtown North
Total Male Female 65+ Etobicoke Scarborough
34 49 64 Toronto York
Accountability and Transparency 13.4% 13.6% 13.3% 11.3% 12.8% 13.9% 16.6% 12.9% 14.5% 12.6% 14.5%
City services for seniors and
10.3% 8% 12.4% 3.9% 10.4% 9.1% 21.6% 11% 6.2% 8.7% 13.8%
children
Crime and Safety 16% 16.4% 15.6% 10.9% 18.9% 20.6% 14.5% 15.4% 17.2% 18.4% 12.9%
Housing Affordability 21.3% 19.8% 22.7% 28.7% 19.5% 18% 16.5% 25.1% 19.9% 19.9% 18.7%
Jobs and Economic Developmemt 11.6% 12.4% 10.9% 17.3% 9.9% 9.9% 7.2% 8.4% 17.1% 11.8% 12.8%
Property Taxes 2.8% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1.9% 4% 4.7% 3% 1.1% 1.6% 5.3%
Traffic and Congestion 8.5% 9.2% 8% 7.5% 10% 9.4% 7.2% 6.3% 8.6% 11.8% 7.3%
Transit 10.7% 12.9% 8.8% 10.8% 13.8% 9.9% 7.8% 13.4% 9.6% 9.2% 9.6%
Another Issue 5.3% 4.4% 6% 8.1% 2.9% 5.2% 3.9% 4.5% 5.7% 6% 5%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184
 QUESTIONNAIRE
On October 22 2018, you will have a
chance to vote in your municipal election.
Which mayoral candidate would you vote
for, or might lean toward?
(first two responses randomized)
John Tory
Jennifer Keesmaat
Faith Goldy
Another Candidate
Undecided
As you might have heard, the provincial
government has passed the Efficient Local
Government Act, which will cut the size of
City Council by nearly half and will have
Toronto residents elect 25 councillors to
City Hall instead of 47. Do you approve or
disapprove of this decision?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Also, you might have heard that an
Ontario Superior Court judge struck down
the provincial government’s original
bill to downsize Toronto City Council
as unconstitutional. Premier Doug Ford
then passed the bill by invoking the
notwithstanding clause, a section in the
Charter of Rights and Freedoms that
allows governments to override certain
parts of the Constitution.
Do you approve or disapprove of the
premier’s use of the notwithstanding
clause?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Do you think that Toronto should separate
from the province of Ontario and function
as an autonomous city with more
legislative authority within Canada?
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
What issue is the most important for you in
this upcoming municipal election?
Accountability & Transparency
City services for seniors & children
Crime and Safety
Housing Affordability
Jobs & Economic Development
Property Taxes
Traffic & Congestion
Transit
Another issue
What is your gender?
Male
Female
What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between September
15th, 2018 and September 16th, 2018, among a sample of 802 adults, 18 years of age or older,
living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents
were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of Toronto.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing. Respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.46% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.69%, Females: +/- 5.12%,
18-34 age group: +/- 8.03%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.86%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.1%, 65+ age
group: +/- 7.09%, Downtown Toronto: +/- 5.44%, Etobicoke: +/- 8.19%, Etobicoke: +/- 7.07%,
Scarborough: +/- 8.19%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.