20 septembre 2018 www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 30.7 21.5 29.0 14.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 -
sièges 48 22 49 6 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 38.7% 0.6% 57.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 0.8% 0.0% 4.0% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 29.4% 26.9% 26.3% 15.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 50% 27% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 26.6% 31.5% 23.7% 17.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 23% 67% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 61.6% 7.9% 14.5% 12.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 41.2% 17.7% 20.8% 17.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 28.1% 27.8% 31.0% 10.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 26% 23% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 22.3% 11.6% 51.0% 10.5% 1.4% 2.8% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 27.9% 3.9% 56.4% 8.3% 0.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 43.4% 1.7% 43.1% 7.4% 0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 52% 0% 48% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 19.8% 34.3% 29.9% 12.3% 1.7% 1.7% 0.4% 1% 71% 28% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 39.2% 10.3% 38.7% 8.2% 0.2% 2.9% 0.3% 52% 0% 48% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 8.0% 34.6% 39.2% 15.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 29% 71% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 13.3% 32.3% 35.6% 17.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 34% 65% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 21.4% 24.1% 40.7% 11.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 1% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 31.7% 41.5% 10.2% 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 12% 88% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 12.2% 28.2% 41.1% 16.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 50.9% 13.8% 16.5% 16.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 20.8% 31.4% 23.5% 21.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.5% 4% 80% 11% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 28.6% 16.8% 37.4% 15.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 14% 0% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 13.9% 28.7% 41.4% 12.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0% 6% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 25.8% 25.1% 35.6% 12.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 8% 6% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 43.2% 14.2% 23.7% 15.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 31.0% 16.6% 38.1% 11.2% 0.5% 2.4% 0.4% 17% 0% 83% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 25.1% 31.5% 29.9% 10.5% 0.5% 2.1% 0.4% 9% 54% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 40.4% 18.9% 27.3% 11.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 95% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 29.8% 5.8% 47.9% 7.0% 0.5% 8.6% 0.3% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 22.2% 33.3% 24.0% 18.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 5% 86% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 65.7% 8.0% 18.5% 5.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 22.5% 11.9% 52.4% 9.5% 0.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 32.9% 18.4% 32.9% 12.4% 0.3% 2.9% 0.4% 50% 0% 49% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 77.8% 0.0% 8.6% 8.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 16.3% 27.8% 42.0% 12.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 15.0% 22.6% 47.2% 12.9% 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 29.8% 28.8% 26.5% 13.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 45% 36% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 27.4% 36.0% 20.1% 15.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 12% 87% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 45.3% 17.5% 24.9% 8.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 23.2% 48.3% 12.3% 15.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 44.7% 14.3% 23.8% 16.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 9.6% 14.2% 9.4% 62.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 8.3% 17.4% 60.2% 12.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 21.1% 26.0% 38.5% 12.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1% 5% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 10.5% 29.2% 16.4% 41.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0% 9% 0% 91% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 41.9% 17.7% 18.9% 20.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 36.4% 16.0% 31.7% 13.2% 0.8% 1.5% 0.4% 73% 0% 27% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 15.2% 26.5% 41.8% 14.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 38.7% 36.0% 9.1% 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 62% 38% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 70.8% 0.0% 13.3% 8.7% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 24.0% 22.9% 30.0% 20.1% 0.5% 2.2% 0.4% 16% 10% 72% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 68.0% 3.5% 12.5% 13.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 36.3% 21.5% 23.5% 14.8% 1.7% 1.8% 0.4% 96% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 14.6% 27.1% 41.9% 14.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 7.9% 39.2% 34.8% 15.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0% 71% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 16.4% 36.1% 32.3% 14.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 69% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 13.0% 39.9% 29.3% 16.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 91% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 18.2% 37.6% 27.0% 15.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 91% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 62.9% 5.7% 15.0% 14.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 24.3% 8.8% 53.9% 9.7% 0.5% 2.5% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 51.6% 8.1% 27.5% 11.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 41.0% 17.3% 24.8% 13.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 24.8% 22.1% 39.5% 11.3% 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 3% 1% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 1.9% 26.8% 57.7% 11.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 33.8% 11.3% 12.2% 39.5% 2.4% 0.3% 0.6% 28% 0% 0% 72% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 35.8% 28.3% 24.6% 8.7% 2.0% 0.2% 0.4% 80% 15% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 27.6% 25.6% 32.1% 12.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.4% 24% 12% 64% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 6.5% 31.6% 45.3% 14.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 25.7% 13.4% 46.7% 10.8% 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 32.4% 14.1% 39.6% 10.2% 0.3% 3.1% 0.4% 18% 0% 82% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 24.4% 16.8% 46.1% 8.5% 1.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 57.6% 11.5% 16.4% 10.0% 3.4% 0.8% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 17.0% 36.3% 25.2% 17.0% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0% 93% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 43.3% 13.9% 22.9% 13.4% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 27.5% 22.7% 35.8% 12.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 14% 2% 84% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 8.7% 29.5% 47.9% 11.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 11.5% 56.9% 16.2% 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 29.7% 25.8% 17.9% 23.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.5% 62% 25% 1% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 30.6% 25.7% 28.3% 14.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 54% 14% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 18.4% 14.0% 12.2% 53.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 42.3% 22.3% 25.1% 7.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 9.8% 29.9% 46.7% 11.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 22.7% 21.9% 41.8% 11.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 1% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 26.6% 16.7% 39.5% 11.5% 1.5% 3.8% 0.4% 4% 0% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 54.3% 8.6% 15.2% 16.6% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 68.3% 4.0% 16.1% 5.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 17.5% 18.6% 45.9% 15.4% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 65.8% 2.1% 11.6% 12.9% 6.4% 0.8% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 30.4% 23.5% 27.9% 16.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 60% 9% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 38.4% 20.3% 24.3% 15.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 95% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 15.3% 33.6% 29.3% 18.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0% 71% 28% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 60.6% 4.5% 17.9% 16.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 31.9% 11.4% 42.8% 10.7% 0.5% 2.4% 0.4% 7% 0% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 12.5% 29.8% 41.1% 14.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 8% 92% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 20.0% 45.7% 19.8% 13.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 13.2% 29.2% 43.5% 11.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 15.8% 32.0% 36.4% 12.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0% 30% 70% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 26.0% 23.6% 32.4% 14.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 16% 7% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 19.4% 36.8% 21.4% 21.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1% 96% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 40.8% 19.5% 23.1% 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 75.7% 0.5% 11.3% 7.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 43.9% 29.7% 14.0% 11.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 96% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 21.7% 32.7% 14.3% 28.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.5% 3% 72% 0% 24% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 3.1% 34.8% 46.4% 13.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 9% 91% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue26.2% 28.5% 24.5% 19.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 29% 51% 18% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 28.6% 29.2% 22.8% 16.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 43% 49% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 42.1% 18.6% 16.0% 17.4% 4.3% 1.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 17.6% 24.8% 40.4% 14.8% 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 17.3% 27.3% 38.5% 14.5% 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 8% 92% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 10.8% 34.0% 39.5% 13.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 26% 74% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 64.3% 1.2% 16.9% 11.8% 3.3% 2.0% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 21.1% 20.9% 12.2% 42.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 33.8% 24.2% 31.9% 9.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 57% 4% 39% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 17.1% 30.5% 38.6% 11.3% 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 15% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 26.4% 27.2% 22.4% 21.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 38% 46% 10% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 41.6% 19.5% 26.4% 10.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 21.6% 29.2% 31.0% 16.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 4% 39% 57% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 26.5% 22.0% 17.9% 30.7% 0.5% 1.9% 0.4% 28% 6% 1% 65% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 12.7% 31.8% 41.7% 12.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 11% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 27.9% 24.2% 30.7% 15.1% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 31% 10% 58% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 31.2% 29.8% 24.1% 13.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 54% 39% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 24.4% 28.7% 32.3% 12.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 8% 29% 63% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 33.4% 13.8% 38.3% 11.0% 0.5% 2.5% 0.4% 26% 0% 74% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 49.7% 13.0% 23.6% 10.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 10.7% 37.9% 37.1% 12.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0% 55% 45% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 40.2% 19.9% 17.2% 16.9% 4.2% 1.1% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 52.7% 9.6% 13.7% 21.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 42.5% 20.2% 26.7% 8.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 97% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 65.2% 0.0% 15.4% 12.9% 5.2% 0.8% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges

Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)