STATISTICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF

GEOMAGNETIC SUBSTORM
THE STUDY OF AE-INDEX

Khoisnam Nanaoba Singh

Manipr University,

Chanchipur.

September 1, 2016
Contents

1 Introduction 1

2 The Sun 3
2.1 Internal structure of sun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.2 Solar Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.1 Fast Solar Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.2 Slow Solar Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.3 Inter Planetary Magnetic Field(IMF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.4 Solar Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.4.1 Prominences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.4.2 Solar flare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.4.3 Coronal mass ejection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.4.4 Sunspots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

3 The Earth’s Magnetosphere 8

3.1 Bow Shock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2 Magnetosheath . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.3 Magnetopause . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.4 Tail of magnetosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.5 Plasmasphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.5.1 Van-Allen radiation belts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.5.2 Inner Belt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.5.3 Outer Belt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.6 Plasma Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

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 3.7 Polar cusps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.8 Auroral Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.9 Ionosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.10 Current System in Magnetosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.10.1 Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling(MI-coupling) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.11 Magnetic reconnection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.12 Geomagnetic Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.12.1 Storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.12.2 Substorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

4 Auroral Electrojet Indices 24

5 Gutenberg–Richter Law 26

6 Self Organized Criticality(SOC) 27

7 Gutenberg–Ritcher Law and Self Organized Criticality 28

8 Analysis of Statistical distribution of AE index 30

8.1 Least square fitting of the graph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
8.2 Equation of the graph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

9 Result and Conclusion 34

A Algorithm of programming 35

B Least square fitting 36

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Chapter 1

Introduction

Earth has its own magnetic field, known as geomagnetic field or simply earth’s magnetic field.
Which extends from the earth’s interior out into space, where it meets the solar. Sun is a
ball of plasma rotating about its own exist, so sun has magnetic field too. The solar magnetic
field(interplanetary magnetic field) extends to entire solar system, it means all the planets in
the solar system is seemed to float inside this huge magnetic field. All the energetic particles
and radiation are protected by the earth’s magnetic field and it acts like a shield for use.
Although, most of the solar wind particles are deflected by the earth’s magnetic field, 1% of
the particles which incident on the earth is penetrated into the atmosphere. This amount of
particle is increase during maximum solar activity. Effects of the solar wind can be analyzed
by observing the change in the earth’s magnetic field. There are many geomagnetic activity
indices which can give the changed in the geomagnetic field. Among them, AE-index is the
index which gives the change in magnetic field around the polar region(north pole). The main
focus of the work is that the statistical distribution of the AE-index and self organized critical
phenomena of the substorm. In the geomagnetic substorm, solar wind energy is stored in the
magnetotail, at some instant when the energy become saturated(a critical point of energy)
magnetosphere becomes unstable and releases explosively the stored energy in the form of
particle energization. Analyzing these change in magnetosphere using 20years values of AE-
index(from 1990 to 2010), the result is found as a distribution form of Gutenberg-Ritcher(GR)
equation. GR equation follows the power law and has scaling parameter for a particular place
and time. GR follows power law means that distribution AE-index may be a self-organized
critical phenomena. In the sand pile experiment, the distribution of number of sand avalanches

1
take places, follows the power law and energy release does not depend on the input energy.
Like the sand pile experiment, the change in the magnetic field around the auroral region has
power law distribution and release energy(change in the geomagnetic energy) does not varies
linearly with the change in the solar wind energy(magnetic energy associated)
In pass few decades the global communication, electronics, many huge electrical based science
labs and space exploration growing in a exponential rate. All of this can not be achieved
without the electricity. If one huge solar wind strikes the earth, what will be happen to
the human race? It will electrify all the atmosphere that affects the communication system,
electrical transmission and many industrial machines, simply human race will be back for about
50years. It can also affect the telecommunication satellite and astronaut on the space stations.
If we know when and how will the solar wind affects the earth’s magnetic field, we can measures
up to prevent the above problems.

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Chapter 2

The Sun

The Sun is a very hot self luminous ball of gas held together by its own gravity and thermo-
nuclear fusion reaction in its core. It consists mainly Hydrogen(about 92%) as the fuel for
solar energy production and Helium(about 8%) as its waste product. Sun emits huge amount
of energy and this is due to the thermonuclear fusion of hydrogen. Sun is not in the ordinary
sates of material(solid, liquid or gas) but it is in the plasma state. Huge amount of radiation
energy from the core, ionized the gas atoms. Therefore, the material, inside the sun are in the
plasma state.

2.1 Internal structure of sun

The inner most region of the sun is called core. It comprises 25% of the distance from the
center to the surface. The temperature at the center of the core is estimated to be more
than 15 × 106 (about 15,000,000K) and density is 162 gm/cc. In this region nuclear burning
of hydrogen takes place. Above this, there is a region called radiative zone. The temperature
of the radiative zone is about 7,000,000K and it extend from 25% to 75% of the sun’s radius.
Radiative zone is characterized by the method of energy transport called radiation. The next
region is the convection zone. In this region transport if energy is done by convection and its
average temperature is about 2,000,000K. The sun has very complex magnetic field created by
the flows of charged particle plasma. Over the convective zone, there is a visible layer of the
sun called photosphere. Its average temperature is about 5,800K. The Chromosphere is the
inner part of the sun’s atmosphere. Its shaped is irregular and average temperature is about

3
200,000K. Corona is the outermost part of the sun. It is visible during the solar eclipse of the
sun as a pearly white crown surrounding the sun. The average temperature of the corona is
about 1,000,000K.

2.2 Solar Wind

The sun produces a stream of charge particles that comes from its the atmosphere. These
stream of particle is known as Solar wind. These stream of particles move very fast that
it can not be held by the sun’s gravity and make their way to the solar system. This is a
result of huge pressure difference between the solar corona and interstellar space. Because of
its high temperature and solar illumination by the Sun, the solar wind is fully ionized plasma.
Furthermore, because of the heating, compression and subsequent expansion, the solar wind is
supersonic above some 30 solar radii. Our solar-system is entirely filled by the solar wind.
The first measurements of the solar wind is started in mid 1960 using space proves. However,
a flow of particles from the sun towards the earth had already been suggested by observing the
radial outward path of the faint comet tails at beginning of the twentieth century.
Solar wind is supersonic with a speed of about 400Km/s and it takes roughly 4 days to reach
earth atmosphere. It carries solar magnetic field out into heliosphere and the magnetic field
strength amounting to some nano-Tesla at the earth’s orbit. Two distinct types of plasma are
observed 1) The Fast and 2) The Slow.[2]

2.2.1 Fast Solar Wind

The Fast solar wind originates in the coronal holes and it has flow speeds between 400Km/s
and 800Km/s. Coronal holes are the dark parts of the corona dominated by the open magnetic
field lines. Fast solar wind has average density about 3-ions/cm3 at 1AU from the sun. The
different charged particle species have different temperatures. The proton temperature is about
2 × 105 K and the electron temperature is about 1 × 105 K.

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2.2.2 Slow Solar Wind

The slow solar wind has flow speeds between 250Km/s and 400Km/s. Slow solar wind has
average density about 8-ions/cm3 at 1AU from the sun. During the solar minimum the slow
solar winds originated from regions close to the current sheet at the Heliomagnetic equator.
The current sheet of the Heliosphere is the thin layer of the charge particles expand throughout
the heliosphere that compressed by the solar magnetic field. During the solar maximum the
slow solar wind is originates above the active regions in the streamer belt. Streamer belt is
the belt of charge particle around the solar equator. Compared to the Fast solar wind, slow
solar wind is highly variable and turbulent, often containing large scale structures. The proton
temperature is about 3 × 104 K, while electron temperature are similar as the fast solar wind.

2.3 Inter Planetary Magnetic Field(IMF)

The Photospheric magnetic field was discovered by Hale in 1902. It has dipolar structure, with
field lines entering the sun in one hemisphere and leaving the sun in the other hemisphere.
Since the solar wind conductivity is high, solar magnetic field is frozen into it and carried out
into interplanetary space. This extension of sun’s magnetic field in radially outward direction
is called Interplanetary Magnetic Field(IMF). The sun’s rotation winds up these field
lines to Archimedean spirals and increasing the radial distance, the originally radial magnetic
field becomes more and more toroidal. The IMF is approximately at 45% to a line from the
sun to an observer to the earth near the earth’s orbit. This angle is required to study the
Solar-Wind-Magnetosphere interaction.

2.4 Solar Activity

The solar wind is very dynamic. The dynamics of the sun, influence the dynamics of the solar
wind. The main factors that influence the solar wind are Solar activity and sun spot. The
variability of the sun mainly indicated by the number and spatial distribution of the sun spots.
But others properties, such as electromagnetic radiation, the solar wind and interplanetary
magnetic field, change, too. The most important phenomena characterizing the solar activity
are Prominences, Solar flare and Coronal Mass ejection(CME).

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2.4.1 Prominences

Prominences are dense cloud of incandescent ionized gas projecting from the Chromosphere(Sun’s
surface) into the corona by loops of magnetic field. Prominences are of two types, Active and
quiescent. Active prominences erupt quickly and have lifetimes lasting from several minutes to
a few hours. They are associated with sunspot groups. Quiescent prominences emerge smoothly
and subside much more slowly, so they are visible for several months.

2.4.2 Solar flare

Solar flare is an impulsive emission of electromagnetic radiation that extends from the radio
to the gamma ray part of the electromagnetic spectrum. In other wards a flare is the result
of a sudden violent outburst in the energy, with energies up to 1025 J being released over a
time period of some minutes. Flare is associated with a shock wave when it interacts with the
interplanetary medium. The biggest flares occur in association with large sunspots that have
sharp magnetic gradients and large currents.Its origin is not clearly understood but it has been
suggested that the solar flare is the result of rapid conversion of large amount energy stored
in magnetically active region into electromagnetic radiation and dissipated through magnetic
reconnection. There is a class of spotless flares associated with filament eruptions; they are
large and sometimes produce coronal mass ejection but produced few high-energy particles. In
more violent flares, energetic plasmas are thrown away from the surface of the sun, and this
radiation can have a significant effect if it reaches the earth’s atmosphere.

2.4.3 Coronal mass ejection

Coronal mass ejection is the large eruption of magnetized plasma from the sun’s outer at-
mosphere, or corona, that propagates outward into interplanetary space. During the solar
maximum, about two CMEs can be observed daily, whereas during solar minimum one CME
can be observed in a week. CMEs observe in connection with flares, filaments which both varies
with solar cycle. The exact formation mechanism is not yet understood but it is assume that
it is formed by the explosive reconfigurations of solar magnetic fields through the process of
magnetic-field reconnection.The fast CMEs drive interplanetary shocks in the solar wind and
cause the most intense geomagnetic storms on Earth.

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2.4.4 Sunspots

Sunspots are the dark spots, they are seen on the photosphere disc of the sun. Temperature
in the dark center of the sunspots drop to about 3700K compare to 5700K for the surround-
ing photosphere. These temperature variations makes the sunspots appearing as dark spots
Sunspots typically last for several days, although very large one may live for several weeks.
Sunspot are magnetic regions with magnetic field strength up to 3KG. From the careful obser-
vation, it is found that sunspot consist of two parts; umbra which constitute the central region
and Penumbra the transition-region between the umbra and the surrounding region. Sunspot
arises because of strong magnetic field they are concentrated on the surface of the sun, so, is
to suppress the convection. Sunspots occurred in bipolar pairs with preceding and following
members showing opposite magnitude polarities. Their polarities are opposite in the northern
and southern hemispheres and reverse with the 11Years sunspot cycle[3]. More accurately, the
solar cycle is taken as the 22Years because after these years the magnetic pattern of the sun
returns to its previous state.

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Chapter 3

The Earth’s Magnetosphere

Earths magnetic field, also known as the geomagnetic field, is the magnetic field that extends
from the earth’s interior out into space, where it meets the solar wind. Origin of geomagnetic
field is not yet cleared. The most accepted one is the dynamo model, where the rotator is
the earth’s molten core. Molten core is in the liquid form of the heavy metals and they are
in ionized state. Rotation of the molten core creates rings of electric currents and magnetic
fields by those ring currents. Near the surface of the earth, the shape of the geomagnetic fields
are perfect dipole whereas at higher altitudes or magnetically disturbed conditions the dipole
shape is distorted by many factors, such as, solar wind, currents in atmosphere, plasmas and
field exchange with the interplanetary medium etc. The earth’s magnetic field facing on the sun
side is compressed towards Earth forming a head like structure, having a radius of curvature
about 10 times the earth radius and The night side of the field is stretched to form a comet
like structure about 50 times earth radius.
All of the solar wind particles incident on the earth’s magnetosphere can not penetrate into the
magnetosphere because the charges particles are deflected by the geomagnetic field. Thus, it
acts as a protective shield for the inhabitants of Earth from the energetic particles associated
by the solar wind. But there are also times, when less than 1% of the incident energy enters the
magneto sphere. This happens when the IMF direction is anti-parallel to the geomagnetic field.
Here, anti-parallel of fields mean, south pole of the interplanetary magnetic field aligned with the
north pole of the geomagnetic field and vice versa. At such time, the solar wind and geomagnetic
fields merge to some extent and open the magnetosphere for transfer of energy. When field
lines are parallel, the magnetosphere is closed and it deflected the solar wind: preventing the

8
transfer of energy.Thus, the transfer of energy into magnetosphere is not continuous but it
changes almost at random depending on IMF directions.The Earth’s magnetosphere on large
scale is roughly divided into two regions-inner and outer magnetosphere. The Region of the
magnetosphere, where the geomagnetic field lines are nearly in dipole shape, is called the inner
magnetosphere. This inner region is again sub-divided into many regions such as Ionosphere,
Plasma-sphere, Van Allen radiation belt etc. It extends up-to about 8 times earth’s radius.
On the other hand, the region of the magnetosphere where the geomagnetic field lines either
deviated to a great extent from a perfect dipole shape or open to the solar wind, is called the
outer magnetosphere. The two tail lobes, the plasma sheet boundary layer(PSBL) and the
current sheet are the region that forms the outer magnetosphere. The different regions of the
earth’s magnetosphere are given below in the Figure 1.

Figure 3.1: Earth’s Magnetosphere (source: )

3.1 Bow Shock

The bow shock is a shock wave formed at a distance of 3-4 earth radii by encounter of the
supersonic solar wind with the ”obstacle” to its flow represented by the Earth’s magnetic field.
Passing through the shock, which ranges in thickness from roughly 100Km to 2 Earth radii, the
solar wind is slowed, compressed and heated. Since the bow shock is associated with changes
in plasma parameters and field strength, it is often treated as a discontinuity.The bow shock

9
is a stationary(no-propagating) shock wave. Shocks are classified as ”Quasi-perpendicular”
and ”Quasi-parallel” according to whether the angle(θ◦ ) between the interplanetary magnetic
field(IMF) upstream of the shock and the shock normal is greater or less than 45◦ . This an-
gle changes with location at the curved shock front, so that the bow shock consists of both a
quasi-perpendicular(θ◦ h45◦ ) and a quasi-parallel region (θ◦ i45◦ ). Moreover, because the orien-
tation of the IMF constantly changes, the location of the quasi-perpendicular and quasi-parallel
components of the shock varies as well.[7]

3.2 Magnetosheath

The magnetosheath is the region of the space between the bow shock and magnetopause. The
regularly organized magnetic field of earth becomes weak and irregular due to the interaction
with the solar wind and is incapable of deflecting fully the highly ionized particle of the solar
wind. Density of the particle in this region less than that of the bow shock, but greater than
the magnetopause, and can be considered a transitory state. It extends upto 10Re on the
upwind(Sun-facing) side of the earth, extending farther out on the downwind side due to the
pressure of the solar wind.[7]

3.3 Magnetopause

The upper boundary of the earth magnetic field surround by the plasma, is called the mag-
netosphere. Is has a bullet-shaped front, gradually changing into a cylinder.its cross section
is approximately circular. The location of the magnetopause is determined by the balance
between the pressure of the dynamic planetary magnetic field and the dynamic pressure of the
solar wind. The distance from the earth’s center to the ”nose” of the magnetosphere is about
10.5Re and to the flanks abreast(polar region) of the earth about 15Re , while the radius of
the distant tail is 25-30Re . As the solar wind pressure increase and decrease, the magneto-
sphere moves inward and out ward and it changes the magnetopause current. The change in
this current affects the earth’s magnetic field at the earth surface in the scale of a few tens
nanotesla.[7]

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3.4 Tail of magnetosphere

The downwind side of the earth’s magnetosphere stretched out into a long ”magnetotail”.
This part of magnetosphere is quite dynamic, large changes can take place there and ions and
electrons are often energized. It is also the main source of the polar aurora.
The most of the region of the tail is taken up by two large bundles of nearly parallel magnetics
field lines. They maintain roughly the same direction until they converse above the poles. The
lobe with magnetics field lines pointing towards the north point is called the northern tail lobe
whereas the lobe with field lines pointing away from the south point is called the southern
tail lobe. These regions are connected to the polar regions by the magnetic field lines. The
magnetic field lines are open to the solar wind in he far downstream tail region from the earth,
so that electron and ions can easily flow away along lobe field lines, until they are swept out by
the solar wind. Because of this, the plasma density and temperature extremely low with typical
values of about 0.01cm− 3 and 20eV respectively, but it contains a relatively strong magnetic
field. Thus in these region the magnetic field pressure is large and the plasma pressure is large
and the plasma pressure is small. The position of the lobe boundary is quite variable and, under
some circumstances(Usually active geomagnetic condition), the lobe plasma can be observed
even on the geosynchronous.

3.5 Plasmasphere

The plasmasphere, or inner magnetosphere, is a region of the earth’s magnetosphere consisting

of the low energy(∼ 1eV ) and it is located above the ionosphere. The plasmasphere was
discovered in 1963 by Don Carpenter from the analysis of VLF whistler wave data. Plasma
density of the plasma sphere is about 102 cm−3 .The outer boundary of the plasmasphere is
known as the plasma pause, which is defined by an order of magnitude drop in plasma density.
The plasmasphere had been regarded as a well behaved cold plasma with particle motion
dominated entirely by the geomagnetic field and hence co-related by the earth. But in recent
satellite observations have been shown that density irregularity such as plumes or bite outs may
form and it does not co-roted with the earth.[7] The plasma of the magnetosphere has many
different levels of temperature and concentration. The coldest magnetosphere plasma is often

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 Figure 3.2: Plasmasphere

found in the plasmasphere, a donut-shaped region surrounding the earth’s middle. But plasma
from the plasmasphere can be detected throughout the magnetosphere because it gets blown
around by electric and magnetic field.
The plasmasphere’s plasma is formed by trapping the upflow ions(plasmas) from the ionosphere
on the di-polar field lines extending up to 4-5 Re in the equatorial plane. This trapping
mechanism, is evident from the fact that the high value of O+ /H + ratio and the observation
of others ion such as He+ , O2+ , N + and N 2+ which can not be found in the solar wind.

3.5.1 Van-Allen radiation belts

Doughnut-shaped zones of highly energetic charged particles trapped at high altitudes in the
magnetic field of Earth. The zones were named for James A. Van Allen, the American physicist
who discovered them in 1958, using data transmitted by the U.S. Explorer satellite. The Van
Allen belts are most intense over the Equator and are effectively absent above the poles. There
are two layers of energetic charged particles held by the earth’s magnetic field. The inner region
is lying approximately 3,000Km above the terrestrial surface and outer region of maximum
particle density is lying at an altitude of about 15,000-20,000Km. Actually, there is no gap
exist between these two regions, they merged gradually.

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3.5.2 Inner Belt

The inner belt consist largely of highly energetic protons,with energy upto 3 × 107 eV. It is
believed that the protons of the inner belt originate from the decay of neutrons produced when
high-energy cosmic rays from outside the solar system collide with atoms and molecules of
Earths atmosphere.These particles moves in a spiral path along the magnetic line of force of
the earth. As particles reach either of the pole, the self magnetic field created by their motion,
become stronger and they are reflected from the polar magnetic field. This phenomenon is
called the ”Magnetic Mirror Effect”. Thus the particles inside inner radiation belt move back
and forth between magnetic poles.

3.5.3 Outer Belt

It is believed that the protons of the inner belt originate from the decay of neutrons produced
when high-energy cosmic rays from outside the solar system collide with atoms and molecules
of Earths atmosphere.
The outer belt is larger than the inner belt and its particle population fluctuates widely. The
energetic particle fluxes increase or decrease dramatically as a consequence of geomagnetic
storms. which are them-self triggered by magnetic field and plasma disturbances produced by
the sun. The increase are due to storm-related injections and acceleration of particles from the
tail of the magnetosphere.

3.6 Plasma Sheet

In the magnetosphere, the plasma sheet is a sheet-like region of denser (0.3-0.5 ions/cm3 versus
0.01-0.02ions/cm3 in the lobes) hot plasma and lower magnetic field near the equatorial plane,
between the magnetospheres north and south lobes and it is surrounded by the neutral sheet.
This separates the northern southern tail lobes. The plasmasheet is primarily connected to
closed magnetic field lines. The plasmasheet region is very complex and dynamic region. The
thickness, density of the particle and their energy are vary greatly during different the geomag-
netic conditions. The onset of the different geomagnetic phenomena such as substorm storm
etc takes place in this region. The plasma often flow rapidly in various directions, particularly

13
in the eastward direction. In ”substorm” some parts of the plasmasheet may get ”squeezed
out” eastwards and tailwards. Earthward flowing ions gain energy and penetrate the inner
magnetosphere, while the outward moving sections(”plasmoid”) stream away from earth and
lost.The plasmasheet has its associated electric current, flowing across the tail’s equator from
flank to flank, from east to west( down to dusk). The current, flowing from down to dusk is
called the cross-tail current. The current then closed along the magnetopause and the magnetic
field created by this circuit helps stretch out the tail lobes.

3.7 Polar cusps

The polar cusps are the two magnetic funnel-shaped regions, one north and one south of the
magnetic equator, in which the transition between terrestrial magnetic field lines leaving the
cusps are closed,compressed, whereas on the nightside, they are almost all open stretched out
magnetic field lines reaching deep into the magnetospheric tail. In this cusp region, solar
wind plasmas from the magnetosheath can enter the exterior cusp, which has a diameter of
approximately 50000Km. and then follow the conversing magnetic field down to the ionosphere
where the cusp size is around 500Km. This conversing field allows the mixing of plasma from
two different origins i.e., the solar wind and ionosphere. This results in auroral displays and
enhanced fluxes of energetic particles.
The high altitude cusp, which is often called the exterior cusp, can be considered to be a part
of the magnetospheric boundary layer system. It is connected to the low altitude cusp. The
low altitude cusp is the dayside region in which the entry of magnetosheath plasma to low
altitudes is most direct. Entry into a region is considered more direct if more particles make
it in(the number flux is higher) and if such particles maintain more of their original energy
spectral characteristics.
The magnetosheath plasma penetrating into the low-altitude cusp is responsible for the dayside
auroral precipitation. However, recent measurements by the polar satellite have shown that
also ions in the MeV range are present(Chen et al., 1997, 1998). These events have been called
as cusp particle(CEP) event.[7]

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3.8 Auroral Zone

The auroral zone is an oval shaped region above the ionosphere in each hemisphere whose field
lines extend into the plasma sheet and boundary layer. This is the region where visible auroras
takes place. The oval shaped region has a radius of about 20◦ around the geomagnetic pole.
This auroral zone is created by the precipitation of particles in the atmosphere. The cusp
and boundary layers on dayside; and the plasma sheet and plasmasheet boundary layer on the
nightside are the sources of these precipitations.
A region that currently displays an aurora is called the auroral oval, a band displaced towards
the nightside of the earth. A geomagnetic storm causes the auroral ovals to expand, and bring
the aurora to lower latitudes. Early evidence for a geomagnetic connection comes from the
statistics of auroral observations. Elias Loomis (1860), and later Hermann Fritz (1881) and
S.Tromholt (1882) in more detail, established that the aurora appeared mainly in the auroral
zone, a ring-shaped region with a radius of approximately 2500 km around the Earths magnetic
pole. It was hardly ever seen near the geographic pole, which is about 2000 km away from the
magnetic pole.

3.9 Ionosphere

The Ionosphere is the interface between the ionized plasma of the magnetosphere and the
neutral atmosphere. It is often described as the base of the magnetosphere. It starts in a
hight of approximately 60Km above the surface of the earth. Ot has a plasma density of
about 105 cm−3 and a temperature of about 0.1eV. The ionosphere plays a fundamental role
in the propagation of radiowaves around the curved surface of the earth. It also plays an
important role in the energization process of the magnetosphereic particles through currents
and plasma flows. Because of the high density of the ionosphere and the existence of a large
neutral component. The particle motion is not determined by the magnetic field only. The
ionosphere differs from the magnetosphere in so far as collisions of charged particles with the
neutrals of the atmosphere occur frequently, the ionosphere therefore is characterized by a
collision dominated plasma. Thus the conductivity is finite and frozen in flux approximation
is no longer valid. The ionosphere is formed by the ionization of atmospheric constituents by

15
Figure 3.3: Ionospheric electron density and composition as a function of altitude. [1, Anderson
and Fuller-Rowell, 1999]

undergoing photonization and energetic particle ”precipitation” undergoing impact ionization.

In the impact ionization process, energetic charged particles collide with atmospheric neutral
atoms, ionizing them and creating free electrons. In the process of photonization, solar photons
incident on the atmosphere are absorbed by neutral atoms, and the atom is dissociated into
charged particles.
The ionosphere consist of three major layers depending on the various degrees of ionization.
They are, the D-region, the E-region, and the F-region which is further divided into F1 and
F2 layers.The D=region is closest layer to the earth and is located between 50-90Km above
the surface of the earth. This layer is primarily caused when solar radiation ionizes nitric
oxide(NO). primary sources of ionization are X-rays and very intense Lyman-α radiation from
the sun with a small fraction of ionization by cosmic ray particles. Since solar radiation is the
main source of the ionization in this region, the ionized particles are largely reduced at night-
time because of high recombination rates. The E-region is located between 90-150Km above
the surface of the earth. The ionization is mainly produced by Ultraviolet radiation and solar
X-rays. O2+ and N O+ dominates this layer. The plasma in this region is strongly collisional,
which makes it a primary site for the closure of field-aligned currents in the ionosphere. The F1

16
and F2 layers are located at 150-200Km and 200-higher above the surface of the earth. This F
layer mainly consist of O+ ions. Solar ultraviolet radiation is the primary source of ionization.
The two layers combine into one F-region on the nightside but are separated in the presence of
sunlight due to different ionization and recombination.

3.10 Current System in Magnetosphere

The deformed shape of the earth’s magnetosphere from a dipole shape is due to the presence
of many current systems inside the magnetosphere. The main source of the geomagnetic dipole
field is considered to be produced by the currents flowing inside the Earth’s liquid core. the
important currents flowing in deferent regions of the magnetosphere that are mostly responsible
for the deformation of the magnetic dipole shape are magnetopause(Chapman-Ferraro) current,
tail current and ring current. The overall magnetopause and tail current system is shown in
the below figure. The magnetopause current is a thin sheet of current at the boundary between

Figure 3.4: Overall magnetopause and tail current system.

Big back side of the the figure is the magnetotail parts. In upper hemisphere, direction of the
current is anticlockwise whereas in lower hemisphere the direction is in clockwise direction.

the magnetosheath and the geomagnetic field separating these two regions on the day side
of the magnetosphere. This current is also known as the Chapman-Ferraro current. The
magnetopause current is nearly perpendicular to the geomagnetic field and extends into the
nightside magnetotail current where it flows around the edges of the tail and closes though the
cross-tail current. The origin of magnetosphere current can be described from the basic particle

17
dynamics. Ions and electrons impinging on the magnetosphere have different gyro-radii and
opposite direction of gyration. Because of this, a surface current is generated, separating the
magnetosheath from the magnetosphere. This current increases the magnetic field everywhere
inside the magnetopause. Cross-tail current is the current system associated with the change

Figure 3.5: Origin of Chapman Ferraro current

in the direction of the magnetotail field from sunward to anti-sunward across the tail neutral
sheet. This current is produced as a result of the tangential stress between the solar wind and
the earth’s magnetic field dragging the earth’s magnetic field and plasma anti sun-ward. the
current flows across the current sheet in the same direction as the ring current( i.e. from the
dusk to down). Its main effect at the surface of the earth is reduce the total field.
Ring current is another current system around the earth between 4-6Re . The gradient and
curvature drift of the particles in the particles trapped zone, leads the ions drift to the west
and the electrons drift to the east, hence yielding a westward current. The direction of the
current is such that its magnetic field acts to oppose the geomagnetic field. So a ring current
enhancement leads to the reduction in the horizontal component of the surface magnetic field.
At ionospheric heights of about 120Km above the earth., there are many horizontal current
systems including the convection electrojet, equatorial electrojet and the substorm electrojet.
These horizontal current systems are connected to the other magnetosphere through a system
of currents flowing up and down along the geomagnetic field lines. They are known as the
field-aligned currents or Birkland currents[Birkland, 1908]. They are caused by the movement

18
of a plasma perpendicular to a magnetic field. The Birkland currents occur in two pairs of
field-aligned current sheets namely, region 1 and region 2 currents. Region 1 currents consist
of current flow into the ionosphere on the dawn-side and outward flow on the duskside. Region
2 current lies equatorward of region 1 and has the opposite sense of current flow.

3.10.1 Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling(MI-coupling)

Because the ionosphere has free electric charges the result in an electrical conductance, it
actively interacts with the magnetosphere through electromagnetic and kinetic process. Part
of this interaction involves the flow of charged particles as field-aligned currents(FAC) between
the ionosphere and magnetoaphere. Closure of this current occurs in ionospheric regions where
the pedersen and Hall conductivities are at their greatest, typically near 130Km above the
earth.
As the geomagnetic field lines convect from sunward to tailward through the magnetosphere,
the associated plasma flows in the magnetosphere and ionosphere ultimately influence one
another. As the anti sun-ward convecting plasma moves across the magnetospheric geomagnetic
field lines, it gives rise to a down-dusk electric field in the equatorial plane, given by the
expression EM = −v × B0 , where v is the convection velocity of the magnetospheric plasma,
and B0 is the local magnetic field. The penetration of the dawn-dusk electric field into the high
latitude ionosphere drives an electric current across the magnetic field in the strongly collisional
regions of the ionosphere. Field aligned currents develop where the perpendicular currents and
the convection electric field has a non-zero divergence. The currents are diverted into field
aligned currents in regions where they have a nonzero divergence as illustrated in fig:6. The
phenomenologically defined region 1 field aligned currents are typically observed between 67◦
and 75◦ latitude in the ionosphere. The region 1 field aligned currents is out of the ionosphere
in the dusk region and into the ionosphere in the dawn region. The lower latitude channels of
field-aligned current, the region 2 currents, are observed between 63◦ and 68◦ latitude in the
ionosphere. Their direction is opposite to the region 1 current, into the ionosphere in the dusk
region and out of the ionosphere in the dawn region.
The region 1 current originates in the region of the interface between field lines dragged tail-
ward by the solar wind and field lines returning to the day-side of the earth and negative on the

19
 Figure 3.6: MI-coupling current system

night-side. The charged on the interface is consequence of the Lorentz force. Positive charges
attached to field lines moving tailward on the dawn side of the earth are deflected earthward
towards the interface. In contrast, positive charges moving sunward just inside the interface
are deflected away from the earth. Tis is again toward the interface; hence, a positive charge
accumulates at the interface. Because of this charge, the centers of the loops become charged
like the terminals of a battery. Because the ionosphere conducts current, current can flow from
positive to negative terminals. Thus, current leaves the positive terminal of the magnetospheric
”battery” and flows down field lines on the dawn side, then across the polar ionosphere, and
finally out on the dusk side.

3.11 Magnetic reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental process in a plasma that facilitates the release of en-
ergy stored in the magnetic field by permitting a change in the magnetic topology.The concept
of reconnection is relevant in plasmas that are almost ideal i.e. plasmas where the magnetic
field is simply affected by the flow in the majority of the volume. Virtually all plasma, gen-
erate magnetic fields. The existence of these fields in the presence of plasma flows inevitably
leads to the process of magnetic reconnection. Reconnection facilitates the release of energy
stored in the magnetic field by permitting a breakdown in the magnetic connection between

20
ideally-evolving plasma elements. Whether in a collisional or collisionless plasma, reconnection
requires the presence of a current sheet. This process is believe to be one of the important
effect of change in geomagnetic field due to location decoupling of plasma and magnetic field.
Magnetic reconnection in earth’s magnetosphere is one of the mechanism responsible for the
aurora(northern light or southern light)

3.12 Geomagnetic Activities

A geomagnetic activities are a temporary disturbance of the Earth’s magnetosphere caused by

a solar wind shock wave and/or cloud of magnetic field that interacts with the Earths magnetic
field. The increase in the solar wind pressure initially compresses the magnetosphere. The solar
winds magnetic field interacts with the Earths magnetic field and transfers an increased energy
into the magnetosphere. Both interactions cause an increase in plasma movement through the
magnetosphere (driven by increased electric fields inside the magnetosphere) and an increase in
electric current in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. There are two types of magnetic storm,
they are 1) Storm and 2) Sub-storm

3.12.1 Storms

Geomagnetic storm is a large and long duration(∼ 1 − 5days), low-latitude magnetic distur-
bances occurring as a result of the ring current enhancement. This ring current enhancement
occurs when the coupling of the solar wind to the magnetosphere becomes strong and prolonged
so that coupling of the solar wind to the solar wind into the magnetosphere.
The solar and interplanetary structures that are mainly responsible for the geomagnetic storms
are the earth-ward directed coronal mass ejection(CMEs) and the stream-stream interaction
regions formed by interaction of high speed wind streams with stream of low speed called ”Co-
rotating Interaction Regions(CIR)”. Magnetic storm are relatively rare in the comparison to
the occurrence of the substorms. The frequency of the geomagnetic storms increase or decreases
with the sunspot cycle. CME driven storms are more common during the maximum of the so-
lar cycle and CIR driven storms are more common during the solar minimum.A geomagnetic
storm is defined by changes in the Dst(disturbance-storm time) index. The Dst index estimates
the globally averaged change of the horizontal component of the Earths magnetic field at the

21
magnetic equator based on measurements from a few magnetometer stations. Dst is computed
once per hour and reported in near-real-time. During quiet times, Dst is between +20 and -20
nano-Tesla (nT).

3.12.2 Substorms

A substorm, sometimes referred to as a magnetospheric substorm or an auroral substorm, is a

brief disturbance in the earth’s magnetosphere that causes energy to be released from the ”tail”
of the magnetosphere and injected into the high latitude ionosphere. Visually, a substorm is
seen as a sudden brightening and increased movement of auroral arcs. Substorms are distinct
from geomagnetic storms in that the latter take place over a period of several days, are observ-
able from anywhere on Earth, inject a large number of ions into the outer radiation belt, and
occur once or twice a month during the maximum of the solar cycle and a few times a year
during solar minimum. Substorms, on the other hand, take place over a period of a few hours,
are observable primarily at the polar regions, do not inject many particles into the radiation
belt, and are relatively frequent often occurring only a few hours apart from each other. Sub-
storm occurrence becomes more frequent during a geomagnetic storm when one substorm may
start before the previous one has completed. The source of the magnetic disturbances observed
at the earths surface during geomagnetic storms is the ring current, whereas the sources of
magnetic disturbances observed on the ground during substorms are electric currents in the
ionosphere at high latitudes.[4]
In Geomagnetic substorm , solar wind energy is first stored in magnetotail lobes through the
magnetic reconnection on the dayside magnetospause and then the stored energy grows until
at some instant, the magnetophere becomes unstable and releases explosively the stored energy
in the form of particle energization. Particle precipitation, and Joule heating causing most
dramatic phenomena in various regions of the magnetosphere and ionosphere. A southward
turning of the IMF initiates the dayside reconnection. The aurora, a natural light display in
the sky usually observed during night time in the polar regions, in the nothern and southern
hemisphere is one of the phenomena occurring as a result of such large scale disturbances in
the magnetosphere. The typical duration of a storm is approximately 1-3Hours.
A typical substorm is described in a series of three distinct phases:

22
i) Growth phase
ii) Expansion phase
iii) Recovery phase
Different signature characterize each of these phases. During the growth phase, solar wind
energy is accumulated in the earth’s magnetotail lobes due to the southward IMF and sub-
sequent reconnection on the dayside magnetopause as is evidenced by an increase in the size
of the polar caps. The stretching of the near earth magnetic field from a dipolar to a more
tail like geometry, which in other words, plasma sheet thinning as well as increase in tail field
magnitude occurs and the peak current density in the cross-tail current becomes very large.
The entire auroral oval expands toward lowar latitudes. The duration of the growth phase is
about 30 to 60 minutes.
The expansion phase lasts for about 30-60 minutes. During this phase, the stored magnetotail
energy is released leading to a more dipolar shape of the magnetic field lines which had been
very stretched and tail-like at the end of the growth phase. The aurora suddenly brighten, and
the ionospheric current flows particularly the westward electrojet, intensify greatly.
The substorm sequence completes during the recovery phase which may lasts for about 1-2
Hours. During this phase, the magnetosphere returns to its original configuration. The intense
ionosphere currents and auroral activity gradually die out with the aurora retreating to higher
latitudes. Also the current sheet and plasma sheet returns to its original size. The mechanism
that triggers substorm onset remains an unsolved issue.
The strength of the substorm is usually measured by the Auroral -Electrojet indices. More
detail description of the Auroral-Electrojet index will be given in next chapter.

23
Chapter 4

Auroral Electrojet Indices

Auroral electrojet index, denoted by AE, is derived as a measure of global electrojet activity.
The basic data used are 1hour readings of the magnetic field strength(H) trace in the standard
magnetograms from twelve auroral zone observatories. A superposition of the 12 AE stations
onto global auroral images and identification of the AL and AU contributing stations enable
an understanding of the temporal as well as spatial behavior of the indices with respect to the
substorm coordinate system and timeframe.. During 1960-70 there were only seven stations.
The readings are referred to a level determined for each observatory from quiet interval and
they are plotted against UT(Universal Time).[8] The twelve stations are shown in Fig:7.

Table 4.1: List of AE(12) Stations.

IAGE Geographic co-ordinate system Geomagnetic co-ordinate system
Observatory
Code Lat.(◦ N ) Long.(◦ E) Lat.(◦ N ) Long.(◦ E)
Abisko ABK 68.36 18.82 66.04 115.08
Dixon Island DIK 73.55 80.57 63.02 161.57
Cape Chelyuskin CSS 77.72 104.28 66.26 176.46
Tixie Bay TIK 71.58 129.00 60.44 191.41
Cape Wellen CWE 66.17 190.17 61.79 237.10
Barrow BRW 71.30 203.25 68.54 241.15
College CMO 64.87 212.17 64.63 256.52
Yellowknife YKC 62.40 245.60 69.00 292.80
Fort churchill FCC 58.80 265.90 68.70 322.77
Poste-de-la-Baleine BPQ 55.27 282.22 66.58 347.36
Narsarsuaq
NAQ 61.20 314.16 71.21 36.79
(Narssarssuaq)
Leirvogur LRV 64.18 338.30 70.22 71.04

Among the geomagnetic activity indices, the auroral electrojet AL, AU, and AE indices

24
 Figure 4.1: Distribution of AE(12) stations
This figure is drawn by Lambert projection with the geomagnetic north pole at its center.
Geographic coordinates are indicated by solid lines. Geomagnetic coordinates are shown by
thin plus signs. Latitude circles are drawn at 10 intervals. Geomagnetic longitude is shown by
the numbers along the outer circle and geographic longitude is given by the numbers along the
inner circle with suffix E or W.

introduced by Davis and Sugiura [1966] are important for studies of high-latitude geomagnetic
disturbances. There is also another derived index known as AO index. All these four index
are collectively known as Auroral-electrojet index. The AL index shows the development of
westward auroral electrojet that is an important feature of magnetospheric substorms and the
AU index shows the magnitude of eastward electrojet. The AE index, which is the difference
between the AU and AL indices. The AO index is the mean value of AL and AU.
These indices closely reflect the features of magnetospheric substorms. During the periods of
enhanced geomagnetic activity the westward electrojet, monitored by the AL index, increases
abruptly due to currents driven by plasma processes in the magnetotail. On the other hand, the
east ward electrojet, which is monitored by the AU index increases due to processes such as the
partial ring current closure via the ionosphere in the evening sector therefore the analysis of AL
and AU indices can yield insights into the dynamics of different aspects of the magnetosphere.
The AL index reflects the variability of the magnetospheric substorms and is widely used in
the studies of the dynamical behaviour.

25
Chapter 5

Gutenberg–Richter Law

In seismology, the Gutenberg-Richter law expresses the relationship between the magnitude and
total number of earthquakes in any given region and time period of at least that magnitude.
The equation is expressed as,

log10 N = a − bM (5.1)

or,

N = 10a−bM (5.2)

Where, N is the number of events having a magnitude ≥ M and, a and b are constant param-
eters.
The relationship between earthquake magnitude and frequency was first proposed by Charles
Francis Richter and Beno Gutenberg in a paper published in 1956. This relationship between
event magnitude and frequency of occurrence is remarkably common, although the values of a
and b may vary significantly from region to region or over time.

26
Chapter 6

Self Organized Criticality(SOC)

In physics, self-organized criticality (SOC) is a property of dynamical systems that have a criti-
cal point as an attractor. An attractor is a set of numerical values toward which a system tends
to evolve, for a wide variety of starting conditions of the system. Their macroscopic behavior,
thus displays the spatial or temporal scale-invariance characteristic of the critical point of a
phase transition, but without the need to tune control parameters to a precise value, because
the system, effectively, tunes itself as it evolves towards criticality [9].
The concept was put forward by Per Bak, Chao Tang and Kurt Wiesenfeld (BTW) in a paper
published in 1987 in Physical Review Letters [10], and is considered to be one of the mech-
anisms by which complexity arises in nature. Its concepts have been enthusiastically applied
across fields as diverse as geophysics, physical cosmology evolutionary biology and ecology,
bio-inspired computing and optimization (mathematics), economics, quantum gravity, sociol-
ogy, solar physics, plasma physics, neurobiology and others. On the other hand, the
power-law shape of size distributions became the hallmark and principal diagnostic of SOC
phenomena.
Self-organized criticality (SOC) is the natural state into which a nonlinear dissipative system
evolves into, without fine tuning of the initial conditions. Generally, some external forcing mech-
anism drives a system into criticality, where energy is dissipated sporadically in avalanche-like
events. Such nonlinear dissipative systems are also called complex systems, which are composed
of many interconnected parts that interact in a nonlinear way.

27
Chapter 7

Gutenberg–Ritcher Law and Self

Organized Criticality

Gutenberg-Ritcher law is based on the empirical observation that the number N of earthquakes
of size greater than M is given by the relation,

log10 N = a − bM (7.1)

The precise values of a and b depend on the location and time of the observation, but generally
b is in the interval 0.8 < b < 1.5. The energy released during the earthquake is believed to
increase exponentially with the size of the earthquake,

log10 E = c − dM (7.2)

where, E is the energy release during the events.

So, the Gutenberg-Richter law is essentially a power law connecting the frequency distribution
function with the energy release E.
In fact, power laws are quite common in nature. The dynamical systems may self-organize
into a critical state similar to that of systems undergoing continuous phase transitions, with
power law spatial and temporal correlation functions. Thus the Gutenberg-Richter law can
interpreted as a manifestation of the self-organized critical behavior of the earth dynamics.[5]
In general, certain interacting dynamical systems naturally evolve into a statistically stationary

28
state, which is also critical, with power law spatial and temporal correlation[Bak et al., 1987,
1988; Tang and Bak, 1988a, b]. It is essential that the systems are dissipative (energy is
released) and energy is fed into the the system in a uniform way through the boundary of
the system. For instance the crust of the earth, subjected to the pressure from tectonic plate
motion. At the stationary state there is a fragile balance between the local forces, adjusting the
probability that a slip will propagate to a near neighbor precisely to unity. The stationary state
can be thought of as a critical chain reaction. Visually, the critical state can be thought of as
the state of a steep sand heap which has been built from scratch by slowly adding particles. The
avalanches caused by adding additional particles represent earthquakes. As the pressure builds
up, the avalanches become bigger and bigger. At the critical state there is no characteristic
time, space, or energy scale, and all spatial and temporal correlation functions are power laws.
The power law size distribution is intimately related to the geometric self-similarity of active
event regions.

29
Chapter 8

Analysis of Statistical distribution of

AE index

The source of the data is from wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp. It is the website of the ”Data
Analysis Center for Geomagnatism and Space Magnetism”, Kyoto University Japan.
The raw data is hourly AE values of 20Years(from 1990/January to 2010/January) and the
total number of data is 176,064. It contains the data of 23th solar cycle which started from may
1996 and end around 2008 January(about 11.7 years).
The raw data contains all the hourly values of AL, AU, AL and AE together and processed
into computer by using Python-pandas programming. Algorithm of the python programming
is given in the appendix. The processed data is given in the below table:

30
 Table 8.1: Processed Data of AE-Index
Serial Counts/ No. of
Class(M) Log(N)
No. occurrences(N)
1 0≤ 176064 12.07860284
2 100≤ 98311 11.4958912
3 200≤ 62912 11.0494922
4 300≤ 41880 10.64256366
5 400≤ 27741 10.23066674
6 500≤ 18083 9.80272755
7 600≤ 11379 9.33952483
8 700≤ 6958 8.84764736
9 800≤ 4122 8.32409376
10 900≤ 2338 7.75705114
11 1000≤ 1286 7.1592919
12 1100≤ 730 6.59304453
13 1200≤ 429 6.06145692
14 1300≤ 243 5.49306144
15 1400≤ 147 4.99043259
16 1500≤ 97 4.57471098
17 1600≤ 64 4.15888308
18 1700≤ 34 3.52636052
19 1800≤ 22 3.09104245
20 1900≤ 18 2.89037176
21 2000≤ 11 2.39789527
22 2100≤ 7 1.94591015
23 2200≤ 3 1.09861229

In the above table, N is number of occurrences of the AE values greater than M.

31
 The graph between M and log(N) plotted by the python programming is given below. The

Figure 8.1: M Vs. Log(N)

graph is found approximately as a straight. Thus it can be approximated as a straight line

using the least square fitting method.

8.1 Least square fitting of the graph

Using the least square fitting method the graph between M and log(N) can be approximated
as a straight line given below,

Figure 8.2: M Vs. log(N) with least square fitting curve.

From the least square fitting line, it is found that(using python programming),

32
intercept = 12.1371334714 and
slope= −0.00496461401777

8.2 Equation of the graph

Since the graph is a straight line, equation of the graph can be written as,

log(N ) = −0.00496461401777M + 12.1371334714 (8.1)

And, in log10 , the above equation can be written as,

2.303log(N ) = −0.00496461401777M + 12.1371334714

or,
log10 (N ) = −0.0021557160303M + 5.27014045653 (8.2)

or,
N = 10(−0.0021557160303M +5.27014045653) (8.3)

33
Chapter 9

Result and Conclusion

Equation(8.2) is of the form of the Gutenberg-Ritcher equation and on comparison we find,

a = 5.27014045653 and b = 0.0021557160303.
The difference between the equation of the AE-index and typical earthquake equation is that
the difference in the value of b. In earthquake the value of b lies in the interval 0.8 < b < 1.5.
Whereas from the result of the work it is found as b = 0.0021557160303.
It is already discussed in the chapter no. 7 that the Gutenberg-Ritcher is essentially a power law
connecting the frequency distribution function with the energy release. Thus, distribution of
of AE-index is also power law with scaling factor a = 5.27014045653 and b = 0.0021557160303
and leads to the conclusion that the power law shape of the distribution of AE-index can be
considered as result of SOC phenomena.
In Geomagnetic substorm , solar wind energy is first stored in magnetotail lobes through the
magnetic reconnection on the dayside magnetospause and then the stored energy grows until
at some instant, at a critical level the magnetophere becomes unstable and releases explosively
the stored energy in the form of particle energization.[6] The AE output(i.e. magnetic energy)
is non-linearly driven by the solar wind. From these properties of the substorm, it can be
considered as a self organized criticality phenomena.

34
Appendix A

Algorithm of programming

1. Raw data in the text format is converted in array using python-panda programming.
2. Extracted the values of the AE from the array which contains date, months, years and
spaces.
3. Created classes of AE-index and inserted the lower class value in a list.
4. Count the no. of occurrences in the class and inserted in a list.
5. Taken the log of the counts and inserted them into a list.
6. Plotted the graph between class-list and list of log-list.

35
Appendix B

Least square fitting

Below steps are required to find the fitted line in python programming.
1. Equation of the straight line that fitted equation(8.2) is considered as, y = ax + b

2. Considered xi are values of the lower class and yi are values of log(count).

P 2 P P P
3. Defined Sxx = x,i Sy = yi , Sx = xi , Sxy = Xi Yi .

4. Calculated the values of a and b using the formulae,

1
Sxy − n Sx Sy
a= Sxx − n1 2
Sx
Sxx Sy −Sx Sy
b= nSxx −Sx2

5. Graph of y = ax + b is plotted and line found in the plot is the required fitting line.

36
Bibliography

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[2] M.B. Kallenrode : Space Physics: An introduction to Plasmas and Particles in the helio-
sphere and magnetosphere , Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York,2004.

[3] H.W. Babcock : The Topology Of the Sun’s Magnetic Field and the 22-Year Cycle. Astro-
phys. J. 133(2):572-587.

[4] N. Yu. Ganushkina, T. I. Pulkkinen, M. V. Kubyshkina, H. J. Singer, and C. T. Russell,

2004: Long-term evolution of magnetospheric current systems during storms, European
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[5] P. Bak, and C. Tang, 1989: Earthquakes as a Self-Organized Critical Phenomenon, J.

Geophys Res., 94, B 1 l, PAGES 15,635.

[6] V. M. Uritsky1 and A. J. Klimas, 2002: Scale-free statistics of spatiotemporal auroral emis-
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[7] M. McGoodwin, 2009: Introduction to Space Physics, A summary of notes and references
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[8] T.N. Davis and M. Sugiura,1965: Auroral Electrojet Activity Index AE and its universal
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Berlin Hindelberg.

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[10] P. Bak, C. Tang, and K. Wiesenfeld, 1987: Self-organized Criticallity: An Expalaination of
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38