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Earth's copper resources estimated from tectonic diffusion of porphyry

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DOI: 10.1130/G24317A.1

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 Earth’s copper resources estimated from tectonic
diffusion of porphyry copper deposits
Stephen E. Kesler
Department of Geological Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA
Bruce H. Wilkinson
Department of Earth Sciences, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York 13244-1070, USA

ABSTRACT
Improved estimates of global mineral endowments are relevant to issues ranging from stra-
tegic planning to global geochemical cycling. We have used a time-space model for the tec-
tonic migration of porphyry copper deposits vertically through the crust to calculate Earth’s
endowment of copper in mineral deposits. The model relies only on knowledge of numbers and
ages of porphyry copper deposits, Earth’s most widespread and important source of copper, in
order to estimate numbers of eroded and preserved deposits in the crust. Model results indi-
cate that ~125,895 porphyry copper deposits were formed during Phanerozoic time, that only
~47,789 of these remain at various crustal depths, and that these contain ~1.7 × 1011 tonnes (t)
of copper. Assuming that other types of copper deposits behave similarly in the crust and have
abundances proportional to their current global production yields an estimate of 3 × 1011 t for
total global copper resources at all levels in Earth’s crust. Thus, ~0.25% of the copper in the
crust has been concentrated into deposits through Phanerozoic time, and about two-thirds of
this has been recycled by uplift and erosion. The amount of copper in deposits above 3.3 km,
a likely limit of future mining, could supply current world mine production for 5500 yr, thus
quantifying the highly unusual and nonrenewable nature of mineral deposits.

Keywords: copper, resources, ore deposit, mineral deposit, tectonic, computational model.

INTRODUCTION
We report here a new approach for quanti-
fying the mineral endowment of Earth’s crust,
information that is relevant to issues ranging
from economic development and strategic
planning to chemical differentiation of Earth
(Gordon et al., 1984; Mikesell, 1986; Menzie,
1997; Farina, 2006; Tilton, 2003, 2006). Here
we estimate remaining crustal resources of cop-
per, which has increased in price by ~460%
between 2003 and 2007. Similar price changes
for many mineral commodities, due partly to
increased demand from newly expanding econ-
omies, have raised awareness of the limits to our
mineral supplies and the need for improved esti-
mates of global mineral endowments.
METHODS USED FOR ESTIMATING
GLOBAL MINERAL RESOURCES
Efforts to estimate Earth’s mineral endowment
must extrapolate information on known deposits
at and near the surface into less explored and
deeper parts of the subsurface. These extrapo-
lations are commonly based on two types of
information, geologic and economic (Singer
and Mosier, 1981; Harris, 1984; McLaren and
Skinner, 1987). Geologic estimates compile
information from well-explored areas on spe-
cific types of mineral deposits and their geologic
environment, and extrapolate this information
into less explored regions (Singer, 1993; Singer
et al., 2005b). Economic estimates compile pro-
duction or reserve data from known deposits,
which are assumed to be sufficiently numerous
and widespread to provide a representative sam-
ple of the entire planet (Lasky, 1950; Folinsbee,
1977; Howarth et al., 1980; Cargill et al., 1981;
DeYoung, 1981). One widely used method of
this type assumes that mineral consumption is
relatively inelastic and changes symmetrically
through time (Hewett, 1929; Hubbert, 1962;
Roper, 1978; Bartlett, 2000; Deffeyes, 2005).
Although both methods have advantages, the
best results should be obtained from a theoreti-
cal framework that extrapolates geologic and
economic information from Earth’s surface
to depth. Development of such a framework
requires an understanding of the factors that
control the number and spatial distribution of
ore deposits in the crust. Several studies have
shown that preservation of deposits, not just
their formation, plays a key role in this regard.
For example, porphyry copper and skarn depos-
its in the western U.S. occupy regions of shallow
and intermediate erosion, respectively (Barton
et al., 1988). These relations were treated theo-
retically by Veizer et al. (1989), who showed
that global cycling rates (expressed as deposit
half-lives) for different types of ore deposits
range from 1.7 b.y. to 3 m.y., depending on
depths of crustal emplacement, and by Bar-
ton (1996), who used a model based on work
of Koons (1989) for reduction of topographic
relief in convergent margin settings to deter-
mine proportions of eroded, exposed, and hid-
den intrusion-related deposits.
METHOD USED IN THIS STUDY
The methodology applied in this study uses
the age-frequency distribution of known depos-
its of a specific type to constrain a steady-state
model of vertical tectonic movement of depos-
its through Earth’s crust with time, including
burial and subsidence as well as uplift and
erosion (Wilkinson and Kesler, 2007). Age-
frequency data for porphyry copper deposits
(as well as many other ore deposit types) define
log normal distributions in which deposit fre-
quency increases abruptly with increasing
age to a modal maximum, and then decreases
gradually with greater age. This distribution
reflects the fact that ore bodies are emplaced
over some restricted range of crustal depths
and then dispersed vertically through the crust
as time passes.
Computationally, the model forms a series
of deposits of a specific type and allows them
to be displaced upward (uplift) or downward
(burial), or to remain at the same level (stasis),
with the passage of each time interval such
that individual deposits in the series follow
one of many different possible depth-time
paths (Fig. 1). The model evaluates numerous

© 2008 The Geological Society of America. For permission to copy, contact Copyright Permissions, GSA, or editing@geosociety.org.
GEOLOGY,
Geology, March
March 2008
2008; v. 36; no. 3; p. 255–258; doi: 10.1130/G24317A.1; 2 figures; 1 table. 255
possible up-stasis-down combinations for a 1 50 m.y.; 2 km 2 200 m.y.; 6 km 3 400 m.y.; 12 km 4 800 m.y.; 20 km
1
group of deposits until it yields a best model
fit to their age-frequency distribution (Fig. 2). 2
Because the model simulates the migration
5
of deposits through Earth’s crust with time, it
also provides information on the number and 3
distribution of deposits in the subsurface, the 10

Depth (km)
most important requirement for estimating
600
global resources. Confirmation of the model is

Frequency
provided by the fact that it closely reproduces 15 4
known age-frequency patterns for the deposits, 400
and yields erosion (denudation) rates identi-
cal to those estimated for continent-scale ter- 20
rains by numerous other methods (Kesler and 200
Wilkinson, 2006; Wilkinson and Kesler, 2007).

APPLICATION OF THE MODEL TO

GLOBAL COPPER RESOURCES
Porphyry Copper Resources
This approach was used to simulate the num-
ber and age-frequency distribution of porphyry
copper deposits, the dominant source of world
copper mine production. Recent compilations
(Singer et al., 2005a; Seedorff et al., 2005)
indicate that most porphyry copper deposits are
of Phanerozoic age, were emplaced at depths
ranging from ~1 to 6 km (averaging 1.9 km),
and have an average vertical thickness of
~2.0 km. With a few exceptions (Manske and
Paul, 2002), most known deposits are within a
few hundred meters of Earth’s surface and part
of their 2 km vertical thickness is at the surface,
as defined by the model calculation (Fig. 2). For
the initial conditions shown in Table 1 and the
age-frequency distribution for 509 porphyry
copper deposits (Singer et al., 2005a), our best-
fit model result yields 574 exposed deposits
500 400 300 200 100
Age (m.y.)
Figure 1. Time-space trajectories of 231 theoretical Phanerozoic porphyry copper depos-
its (light gray lines) emplaced at crustal depth of 2 km (arrow) relative to Earth’s surface
(straight heavy line), and tectonically moved (with the same probability) up, horizontally, or
down by 468 m in age-depth space with each age step of 106 yr. Four paths (with ages and
maximum burial depths) illustrate the range of burial histories. Numbered lines represent
possible paths taken by: (1) Miami-Inspiration in Arizona (Livingston et al., 1968), (2) Gibral-
tar in British Columbia, (Bysouth et al., 1995), and (3) Chapada in Brazil (Richardson et al.,
1986). Others remain in subsurface (e.g., 4) at various depths, including deposits that might
enter mantle through crustal delamination. Inset to lower right shows age frequency distri-
bution of 5000 such deposits (binned over 5 m.y.) that are now exposed at the theoretical
Earth surface (straight heavy line). Note that numbers of deposits increase rapidly to modal
age of ~10 m.y., and then decrease gradually with increasing age.
Deposits/km/m.y.
50
2
4 5
6
0.5
8
Depth (km)

with an age-frequency distribution very simi-

lar to that of the known population (Fig. 1); as 10
shown below, the difference between actual and 0.05
12
predicted number of deposits is insignificant
in relation to the large number of deposits that 14 0.005
formed during Phanerozoic time.
16
The real contribution of the calculation is
its quantitative estimate of Earth’s subsurface 18 0.0005
deposit endowment. The low modal age of
9 m.y. for porphyry copper deposits (Table 1) 20
8 6 4 2 0.00005
relative to the duration of Phanerozoic time Total Copper Modal age = 9 m.y.
requires that a steady-state Earth formed and Endowment 231 Deposits/m.y. 15
Ex posed
deposits

(109 tonnes) Emplacement depth = 1.9 km

destroyed many deposits (e.g., Veizer et al., Emplacement range = 2.0 km 10
Exhumation rate = 271 m/m.y.
1989). The calculation quantifies this and indi- Up-Stasis-Down = 5
cates that Earth formed 125,895 porphyry copper 31%; 38%; 31%

deposits in order for 574 deposits to be at or near 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
the present surface. Furthermore, only 47,789 Age (m.y.)
deposits (~38% of those that formed during Figure 2. Distribution of porphyry copper deposits in age (X axis)-depth (Y axis) space
Phanerozoic time) remain in the crust, whereas (upper panel) resulting from burial histories such as those taken by deposits in Figure 1.
another 78,106 (~62%) have been removed by Colors are log scaled as number of deposits in a 1 m.y. × 1 km area. Lower panel compares
uplift and erosion (Table 1). The 574 near-surface age-frequency distributions for real deposits (light blue bars) and deposits at model sur-
deposits that formed during Phanerozoic time face (dark blue line). Good agreement between model and observed age frequencies indi-
cates that, over the past 545 m.y., porphyry copper deposits emplaced at crustal depth of
represent 1.2% of the total number of deposits 1.9 ± 1 km formed at rate of ~231 deposits/m.y. (Table 1). Histogram to left (yellow) shows ver-
that remain in the crust. Precambrian porphyry tical distribution of total copper endowments in porphyry copper deposits over 1 km crustal
copper deposits (Burrows and Spooner, 1986; depth intervals; modal depth is ~2.8 km (Table 1).

256 GEOLOGY, March 2008

 TABLE 1. MODEL RESULTS FOR PHANEROZOIC
PORPHYRY COPPER DEPOSITS
Initial conditions
Phanerozoic deposits (discovered) 509
Average emplacement depth (km) 1.9
Average vertical extent (km) 2.0
Age steps (m.y.) 1
Model results
Exposed deposits 574
Up-stasis-down (%) 31–38–31
Emplacement rate (/m.y.) 231
Modal age (m.y.) 7
Modal deposit depth (km) 2.81
Tectonic step (m/m.y.) 468
Exhumation rate (m/m.y.) 271
Total deposits 125,895
Eroded deposits 47,789
Extant deposits 78,106
Estimated copper resources
Porphyry copper deposits (tonnes) 1.7 × 1011
All copper deposits (tonnes) 3 × 1011
Note: Results are calibrated against the data of
Singer et al. (2005a), and all copper deposits are
based on assumptions outlined in text.
Roth et al., 1991) are not sufficiently numerous
to change these totals significantly, making this
result a good estimate of the number of porphyry
copper deposits in Earth’s crust.
Because the calculation is based on random
tectonic dispersion of deposits in the crust, the
copper content of deposits at the surface (with
the possible exception of supergene depos-
its) will be representative of deposits in the
subsurface. Metal endowments of all mineral
deposits are highly skewed, with a few large
deposits and many small ones, and this is true
for porphyry copper deposits. In the absence of
geological knowledge to the contrary, we have
made the assumption that the distribution of
metal endowments is similar in the known and
unknown deposit populations. In the known
population, grade-tonnage data are available
for 373 deposits of Phanerozoic and prob-
able Phanerozoic age, which contain a total of
~1.3 × 109 tonnes (t) of copper (Singer et al.,
2005a). Grade-tonnage data are not available
for another 258 deposits of known and sus-
pected Phanerozoic age, but if they have the
same grade-tonnage distribution, near-surface
Phanerozoic-age porphyry copper deposits
contain ~1.9 × 109 t of copper. Thus, if currently
known deposits represent 1.2% of the Phanero-
zoic total, Earth’s porphyry copper deposits
contain ~1.7 × 1011 t of copper (Table 1).
Global Copper Resources and Comparison
to Other Estimates
Singer (1995) estimated that porphyry copper
deposits account for ~57% of world discovered
copper. If this proportion also reflects the abun-
dance of porphyry copper deposits relative to
other copper deposits in the subsurface, Earth’s
total copper endowment in ore deposits is
~3 × 1011 t (Table 1). This estimate is probably
GEOLOGY, March 2008
low for several reasons. First, volcanogenic
massive sulfide and sediment-hosted deposits,
which form in basinal settings where preser-
vation is greater, are more abundant in Pre-
cambrian terrains than porphyry copper deposits
(Goodfellow et al., 1993; Franklin et al., 2005).
Second, increasing copper prices and improved
technology will convert lower grade deposits
to ore. The degree to which these factors will
increase global resources involves the complex
and still unresolved interplay between extrapo-
lation of the Lasky relation (Lasky, 1950;
DeYoung, 1981) and mineral content of ore
deposits compared to average rocks (Skinner,
1976; Singer, 1977). This uncertainty will be
compensated for, however, by a third factor; i.e.,
as more porphyry copper deposits are found at
the surface, the model will predict proportion-
ally more in the subsurface. It is unlikely, how-
ever, that these factors will increase our estimate
of total copper resources by more than 100%.
The only large-scale estimate to which we
can compare our result is the assessment by the
U.S. Geological Survey of copper resources in
the U.S. (U.S. Geological Survey National Min-
eral Resource Assessment Team, 2000), which
was based on years of geological mapping.
This study concluded that the total (produced,
discovered, and undiscovered) copper endow-
ment for the U.S. is ~6.4 × 108 t to a 1 km depth,
a reasonable depth to which geological estimates
can be extrapolated. Using the distribution of
deposits with depth indicated by our calculation
(Fig. 2) and assuming that Earth’s copper depos-
its are evenly distributed, our model indicates
that deposits in the upper kilometer of the U.S.
contain ~7 × 108 t of copper. These estimates are
very similar even if our estimate is doubled.
SIGNIFICANCE AND RAMIFICATIONS
OF THIS ESTIMATE
Our estimate of 3 × 1011 t for Earth’s mini-
mum copper endowment can be considered
in terms of two very different questions. First,
from a societal perspective, we can ask what our
results say about future mineral supplies and
estimation methods. The close correspondence
between our estimate and that of the U.S. Geo-
logical Survey indicates that geological meth-
ods yield good estimates of shallow (<1 km)
mineral resources. Geological estimates there-
fore provide guidance to the location of shallow
resources that must be discovered by explo-
ration, and can guide land-use decisions by
forward-looking citizens and governments. By
extending these estimates to greater depth, our
results provide quantitative confirmation that
society’s long-term copper supplies must come
from deeper levels of the crust. This will require
extensive underground mining, which involves
less disturbance of the surface, but work in hos-
tile environments with high temperatures, weak
rock, and difficult access. Current underground
mining reaches depths of 1.5 km in many areas
and ~3 km locally. Assuming ~3.3 km as the
likely limit of mining in the foreseeable future,
our results indicate a recoverable resource of
~8.9 × 1010 t of copper. At current mining rates,
this can supply world copper mine production
for ~5500 yr. Any significant increase in this
number will require advances in deep explora-
tion and mining methods.
From a geochemical perspective, we can ask
just how efficient Earth is in forming copper
deposits. Magmas that form porphyry cop-
per deposits are largely partial melts of lower
crustal rocks (Richards, 2003), and other types
of copper deposits are derived more directly
from crustal rocks. For a mass of ~1.52 × 1019 t
(Lodders and Fegley, 1998) and an average
copper content of ~26 ppm (Shaw et al., 1986;
Wedepohl, 1995; Rudnick and Fountain, 1995;
McLennan and Taylor, 1996), the continen-
tal crust contains ~3.9 × 1014 t of copper. Our
estimate of 3 × 1011 t of copper in deposits in
the crust is ~0.08% of this amount. If porphyry
copper deposits remaining in the crust constitute
~38% of all that formed during Phanerozoic
time, and if this proportion applies to other types
of copper deposits, then ~0.24% of the copper in
the crust has been concentrated into copper
deposits during the Phanerozoic, and most of
that has been redispersed by uplift and erosion.
Even with the uncertainties indicated above, this
quantifies the highly anomalous and nonrenew-
able nature of mineral deposits.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We are grateful to D.A. Singer for insightful discus-
sion of our effort and to Philip Candela, Eric Seedorff,
and three additional reviewers for helpful comments.
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Manuscript received 27 July 2007
Revised manuscript received 27 November 2007
Manuscript accepted 4 December 2007
Printed in USA
GEOLOGY, March 2008