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Sinphuhorm Gas Field
Sinphuhorm Gas Field
CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD
AS OF 1ST JANUARY, 2012
In response to your request, RPS Energy Consultants Limited (“RPS”) has completed an update of the
independent evaluation of the Reserves and value for the Sinphuhorm Field (“the Property”) in which
Coastal Energy Company (“Coastal”) has an interest. We have estimated Proved, Probable and
Possible Reserves as of 1st January, 2012. The Reserve estimates shown in this report are estimated in
accordance with requirements of the London Stock Exchange and Toronto Ventures Exchange (“LSE”
and “TSX”) including Canadian National Instrument 51-101 and the Reserve and Resource definitions
of the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook. RPS was mandated to undertake this work with the
signing of the Letter of Engagement (“LoE”) by Coastal on 29 th December, 2011.
The work was undertaken by a team of petroleum engineers, geoscientists and economists and is based
on data supplied by Coastal. The report has an effective date as of 1st January, 2012. Our approach
has been to review the production and cost data supplied by Coastal for reasonableness and then
independently estimate ranges of recoverable volumes. We have estimated the degree of uncertainty
inherent in the measurements and interpretation of the data and have calculated a range of recoverable
volumes, based on predicted field performance for the property and the contracted gas sales for
Sinphuhorm.
RPS has included in Probable (P2) Reserves and Possible (P3) Reserves volumes that can be reasonably
expected to be sold under the existing Gas Sales Agreement (“GSA”). The GSA limits the volumes
that may be monetized and allows for a Daily Contract Quantity (“DCQ”) of 108 MMscfd, subject to a
“Buyers Maximum DCQ Reduction Amount”. This DCQ Reduction allows the Sinphuhorm DCQ to
be reduced in the early years in order to allow for preferential supply to the GSA from the nearby
Nam Phong field. The exact Sinphuhorm DCQ reduction amounts will depend on the decline of the
Nam Phong field. The DCQ reduction, as estimated by the Nam Phong Field production forecast
provided by Coastal, has been used to estimate the Reserves for the Sinphuhorm property.
Gross and Net Working Interest Reserves attributable to Coastal are summarized in Table I.
We have taken the working interest that Coastal has in the Property as presented by Coastal and we
have not investigated nor do we make any warranty as to Coastal’s interest in the Property.
The report shows the Reserves in barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) for Sinphuhorm using a conversion
factor of 6.0 Mscf per BOE as per the SPE BOE calculation guidelines. Readers should note that BOE’s
may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation.
RPS Energy Limited (Singapore Branch): Registered in England No. 146554. Centurion Court, 85 Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 4RY, United Kingdom.
Branch registered in Singapore UEN: T07FC7076E
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Table 1
Summary Statement of Coastal’s Reserves for the Sinphuhorm Gas Field
as of 1st January, 2012
Remaining
Net Present Values (US$ Million)
Ultimate Reserves
Product Classification
Reserves Company Before Income Taxes After Income Taxes
Gross Net 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Net means net entitlement as per the Reserve and Resource definitions of the Canadian Oil and Gas
Evaluation Handbook. Thailand is a Tax and Royalty regime. Royalty is treated as tax and paid in cash, and
thus, attributable Net Entitlement Share is reported as Coastal’s working interest volumes including the
volumes associated with Royalty.
Note that the majority of the Undeveloped Reserves are at risk of being re-classified as Contingent
Resources at the end of 2012. This is due to the lack of demonstrated commerciality for the tighter,
unfractured and undolomitised portions of the structure. Please see report (Section 2.11.1) for details.
ECV1837.03 iii
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Table 2
Summary Statement of Coastal’s Contingent Resources for the Sinphuhorm Gas
Field as of 1st January, 2012
ECV1837.03 v
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Table of Contents
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................1
2 Concessions EU1, E5N and L15/43 ............................................................................................5
2.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 5
2.2 Petroleum System ........................................................................................................................................ 5
2.3 Database ........................................................................................................................................................ 6
2.4 Sinphuhorm Structure ................................................................................................................................. 6
2.5 Petrophysics .................................................................................................................................................. 7
2.6 Static Volumetric Estimates ........................................................................................................................ 7
2.6.1 Gas-Water Contact ....................................................................................................................................... 7
2.6.2 Indosinian-1 Unconformity Truncation ...................................................................................................... 8
2.6.3 Monte Carlo Probabilistic Simulation ........................................................................................................ 8
2.7 Reservoir Pressure and Temperature ...................................................................................................... 9
2.8 Production History ...................................................................................................................................... 9
2.9 Well Production Testing ............................................................................................................................. 9
2.10 Fluid Properties .......................................................................................................................................... 10
2.11 Material Balance Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 10
2.11.1 “Mapped” versus “Connected” GIIP Estimates.................................................................................... 12
2.12 Recoverable Hydrocarbons ...................................................................................................................... 12
2.12.1 Further Development Plans ...................................................................................................................... 13
2.12.2 EUR Volumes ............................................................................................................................................... 15
2.12.3 Resource Classification .............................................................................................................................. 15
2.12.4 Uncontracted Gas and Condensate Volumes ....................................................................................... 18
3 Commercial Evaluation ............................................................................................................27
3.1 Thai Concession Terms ............................................................................................................................ 27
3.2 Capital and Operating Costs .................................................................................................................... 27
3.3 Gas Contract and Prices ........................................................................................................................... 28
3.3.1 Sinphuhorm Contract Volumes ................................................................................................................ 28
3.3.2 Sinphuhorm Gas Price ............................................................................................................................... 28
3.3.3 Sinphuhorm Unitisation ............................................................................................................................. 28
4 Resource Statement .................................................................................................................31
5 NI 51-101 Reporting of Reserves .............................................................................................39
Appendices ..........................................................................................................................................45
Appendix I: Glossary of Technical Terms
Appendix II: Reserves and Resources Definitions and Guidelines
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RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Tables
Table 2-1 – Sinphuhorm Participants and their Working Interests ............................................................................. 5
Table 2-2 – Sinphuhorm GIIP (Bscf, 100% Basis)............................................................................................................ 8
Table 2-3 – PH-5 Welltest Summary .............................................................................................................................. 10
Table 2-4 – The Latest Reservoir Pressure Measurements ........................................................................................ 11
Table 2-5 – Effective “Connected” Estimates of GIIP, Sinphuhorm Gas Field (Bscf, 100% Basis) ........................ 12
Table 2-6 – Differences between the “Mapped” and “Connected” GIIP Estimates, Sinphuhorm Gas Field (Bscf,
100% Basis) ......................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table 2-7 – Drilling Infill and Appraisal Wells and Wells Allocations for Reserves ............................................... 14
Table 2-8 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field EUR (Bscf, 100% Basis) ........................................................................................ 15
Table 2-9 – Sinphuhorm Gas Sales Agreement – DCQ and DCQ Reduction ........................................................ 16
Table 2-10 – Contracted and Uncontracted Gas and Condensate Volumes ........................................................... 17
Table 2-11 – Uncontracted Recoverable Sales Gas Volumes ..................................................................................... 18
Table 3-1 – Principal Commercial Terms ...................................................................................................................... 27
Table 3-2 – Forecast CAPEX and OPEX (US$ Million, 2012) for the Sinphuhorm Development ....................... 27
Table 3-3 – Estimated Unitised Share for the Sinphuhorm Gas Field ....................................................................... 29
Table 4-1 – Sinphuhorm Field Gross Reserves Estimate as of 1st January, 2012 ................................................... 31
Table 4-2 – Sinphuhorm Field Coastal’s Net Entitlement Reserves Estimate as of 1st January, 2012 ................ 31
Table 4-3 – Sinphuhorm Field Gross Sales Gas Reserves Reconciliation ................................................................. 32
Table 4-4 – Sinphuhorm Field Gross Condensate Reserves Reconciliation ............................................................ 32
Table 4-5 – Sinphuhorm Field Coastal Net Company Sales Gas Reserves Reconciliation (Forecast Prices and
Costs) .................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Table 4-6 – Sinphuhorm Field Coastal Net Company Condensate Reserves Reconciliation (Forecast Prices
and Costs) ........................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Table 5-1 – Sinphuhorm Field Summary of the Evaluation of the Petroleum Reserves as of 1st January, 2012 39
Table 5-2 – Total Future Net Revenue Undiscounted Forecast Prices and Costs as of 1st January, 2012 ........ 40
Table 5-3 – Sinphuhorm Field Volumetric Reserves Estimates Reservoir Data ...................................................... 40
Table 5-4 – Estimates of Proved Reserves and Net Present Values for the Sinphuhorm Field (as of 1st January,
2012) .................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table 5-5 – Estimates of Proved Plus Probable Reserves and Net Present Values for the Sinphuhorm Field (as
of 1st January, 2012) ......................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table 5-6 – Sinphuhorm Field Remaining Gas Reserves Reconciliation, 100% Basis .............................................. 43
Table 5-7 – Sinphuhorm Field Remaining Condensate Reserves Reconciliation, 100% Basis ............................... 43
Table 5-8 – Sinphuhorm Field Remaining Gas Reserves Reconciliation, Coastal’s Net Entitlement ................... 44
Table 5-9 – Sinphuhorm Field Remaining Condensate Reserves Reconciliation, Coastal’s Net Entitlement ..... 44
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RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Figures
Figure 1-1 – Location of Coastal’s Onshore Thailand Concession ............................................................................. 3
Figure 2-1 – Location of the Sinphuhorm Gas Field and Concession L15/43 .......................................................... 19
Figure 2-2 – Onshore Thailand Stratigraphic Column ................................................................................................. 20
Figure 2-3 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field Top Structure Map (RPS) ................................................................................... 21
Figure 2-4 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field Reservoir Pressure ............................................................................................. 22
Figure 2-5 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field Production History ............................................................................................. 23
Figure 2-6 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field FWHPs .................................................................................................................. 24
Figure 2-7 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field P/Z GIIP Estimate (RPS) ..................................................................................... 25
Figure 2-8 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field P/Z GIIP Estimates (Operator) ......................................................................... 26
Figure 4-1 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field Gas Production Profile ....................................................................................... 35
Figure 4-2 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field Condensate Production Profile......................................................................... 36
Figure 4-3 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field Gas Production Forecast ................................................................................... 37
Figure 4-4 – Sinphuhorm Gas Field Gas Production Forecast ................................................................................... 38
ECV1837.03 ix
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
1 Introduction
Coastal, through its 36.1% interest in APICO LLC’s (“APICO”) share, participates in two
production licenses; EU1 and E5N (at 12.6% Working Interest) and two concessions, currently in
the exploration phase (L27/43 and L15/43 at 36.1% Working Interest). Coastal has engaged RPS
Energy Consultants Limited (“RPS”) to perform a Reserves and Resources Update for the
Sinphuhorm Gas Field. This evaluation covers the hydrocarbon Reserves and Contingent
Resources associated with Coastal’s interest in the Sinphuhorm Gas Field (the “Asset”, Figure
1-1).
The Reserves Evaluation of the Asset followed the Scope of Work as agreed by Coastal and RPS:
Sinphuhorm Gas Field Review
1. Geological Review.
2. Production Data Review.
3. Gas Sales Agreement and Production/Cashflow Forecasting.
4. Further Field Development Review.
5. Estimation of the Proved (“1P”), Proved plus Probable (“2P”), Proved plus
Probable plus Possible (“3P”) Reserves and the Contingent Resources.
6. Issue of the final Reserves and Resources Update Report; this report.
The deliverable is a Formal Reserves Update Report Letter for the Asset. It presents our opinions
on whether the existing studies, models and estimates are reasonable and appropriate. In addition
to documenting the methodology used for RPS’s independent analyses and checks, we also highlight
any red flags or items of material interest to the Lenders.
The evaluation presented in this report reflects our informed judgment, based on accepted
standards of professional investigation, but is subject to generally recognized uncertainties
associated with the interpretation of geological, geophysical and engineering data. The evaluation
has been conducted within our understanding of petroleum legislation, taxation and other
regulations that currently apply to these interests. However, RPS is not in a position to attest to
the property title, financial interest relationships or encumbrances related to the property. Our
estimates of Reserves and Resources are based on data provided by Coastal. We have accepted,
without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of this data.
The report represents RPS’s best professional judgment and should not be considered a guarantee
or prediction of results. It should be understood that any evaluation, particularly one involving
future performance and development activities may be subject to significant variations over short
periods of time as new information becomes available. This report relates specifically and solely to
the subject Property and is conditional upon various assumptions that are described herein. This
report must, therefore, be read in its entirety. This report was provided for the sole use of
Coastal and their corporate advisors on a fee basis.
The Reserve estimates shown in this report are estimated and presented in accordance with
requirements of the London Stock Exchange and Toronto Ventures Exchange (“LSE” and “TSX”)
including Canadian National Instrument 51-101 and the Reserve and Resource definitions of the
Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook. Further, RPS has been guided by the March 2007
SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (“PRMS”) in assessing the
volumes.
ECV1837.03 1
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
RPS has previously reviewed the Resources for this Asset for Coastal, Salamander and APICO in
the reports:
“Salamander Reserves Statement for the Sinphuhorm Field” dated 20th October, 2010,
evaluating the Reserves as of 1st July, 2010 (Project ECV1665).
“Coastal Energy Due Diligence for the Sinphuhorm Field” dated 29th October, 2010,
evaluating the Reserves and Contingent Resources as of 1st July, 2010 (Project
ECV1658).
“APICO LLC Resource Statement for the Sinphuhorm Gas Field” dated 24th
November, 2010, evaluating the Resources as of 1st July, 2010 (Project ECV1705).
“Salamander Reserves Statement for the Sinphuhorm Field” dated 19th January, 2011,
evaluating the Reserves as of 1st January, 2011 (Project ECV1666).
“Coastal Energy Sinphuhorm Gas Field Reserves Update” dated 3rd March, 2011,
evaluating the Reserves and Contingent Resources as of 1st January, 2011 (Project
ECV1725).
“Evaluation of APICO LLC’s Reserves in the Sinphuhorm Gas Field, Licences EUI and
E5N, Onshore Thailand” dated 14th June, 2011, evaluating the reserves as of 1st
January, 2011 (Project ECV1738).
“Salamander Reserves Statement for the Sinphuhorm Field” dated 23rd September,
2011, evaluating the Reserves as of 1st July, 2011 (Project ECV1764).
ECV1837.03 2
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
L15/43
EU1
Sinphuhor
Sinphuhorm
m EU1
E5N
L15/43
E5N
L27/43
Nam Phong
Scale
0 (km) 25
ECV1837.03 rpsgroup.com
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Coastal, through its 12.6% interest in APICO’s share, participates in two production licenses; EU1
and E5N and three concessions, currently in the exploration phase (L27/43 at 36.1%, L13/48 at
21.7% and L15/43 at 36.1% Working Interest). These are located in the Khorat Plateau, onshore
Thailand and are shown in Figure 1-1.
The Sinphuhorm Gas Field, which has historically been referred to as the Phu Horm Field, was
discovered by Esso in 1983 with the Sinphuhorm-1 well. The Thai authorities mandated the change
of name from Phu Horm to Sinphuhorm. The structure straddles the two production licenses of
EU1 and E5N, and appears to extend southwards into the Block L15/43 (Figure 2-1).
The gas field has been on production since November 2006 and is subject to ongoing delineation
and development activities. APICO own a 35% non-operated working interest in the EU1 and E5N
concessions. APICO owns 100% of the L15/43 concession and is Operator. The field production
licence expires on the 19th May, 2034. The Sinphuhorm production license extends until 19th May,
2034. As of 1st January, 2012, the participants of the concession were as presented in Table 2-1:
The Khorat Plateau covers an area of about 170,000 km2. It is rimmed on its western and southern
margins by an escarpment of mostly steeply dipping sediments that form cuestas rising from 600-
1,000 m above sea level. The sedimentary sequence consists of an initial rift sequence of
Carboniferous to Triassic age sediments, and a “sag” sequence of Late Triassic to Cretaceous age
sediments. The two sequences are separated by a regional unconformity, the Indosinian-1
Unconformity, which represents the main collision of Indochina with its neighbours.
The principal petroleum system is within the Permo-Triassic and underlying Carboniferous (Figure
2-2). The Mid Permian Pha Nok Khao Formation platform limestones and dolomites are the
principal reservoirs. These are immediately below, and are truncated by, the major Indosinian-1
Unconformity. The proven hydrocarbon systems within Permian carbonates are:
Fractured massive carbonates contained within thrust-related structures, as in the
Sinphuhorm Gas Field.
Partially dolomitised carbonates, as in the Sinphuhorm Gas Field.
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RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Secondary reservoirs are the Early Permian, Si That Formation, and the Triassic aged, Huai Hin Lat
Formation, which is a succession of interbedded sands and shales lying above the Indosinian-1
Unconformity.
Triassic gas-prone lacustrine shales and coals, buried within half-grabens, and matured during the
Cretaceous, are the postulated source rocks. Permian marine shales may be secondary source
rocks.
2.3 Database
The Coastal concessions in the Khorat Basin are covered by seismic data of several vintages dating
back to 1979. New seismic was acquired in 2005 to the south of the Sinphuhorm, as well as over
discovery areas to the east. The central crestal portion of the Sinphuhorm Gas Field has been
delineated with the drilling of eight wells (PH-1 to -7 and PH-10). Well PH-10 has been on
production since December 2007. The South PH-1 well has been drilled in the northern portion of
Concession L15/43, indicating that the closure extends to the south. However, flow test rates
were disappointing in that well and PH-6, located to the central northern part of the field. Both of
these wells are still being evaluated for future stimulation operations. The reservoir at Sinphuhorm
-7 on the western flank of the field was tight and no flow was achieved during testing.
RPS reviewed an independent third party petrophysical study that had been completed on these
logs for another participant within the field development. An audit by RPS found these log
evaluations to be reasonable and appropriate. Production and well test data were provided for all
producing and tested Sinphuhorm wells.
RPS has completed an independent interpretation of the Sinphuhorm during a previous study for
one of APICO’s part-owners (Salamander). It is evident that two key horizons form the closure
across the majority of the Sinphuhorm structure (see the stratigraphic column in Figure 2-2 and
the top structure map in Figure 2-3).
The lower surface is formed by the top of the Si That Formation. This complex surface dips to the
SE and forms a conformable base to the overlying Pha Nok Khao Formation. However, the Si
That/Pha Nok Khao bedding plane also forms the décollement surface for a low angle thrust that
trends NE-SW. The thrust plane contains small conjugate thrust faults that are interpreted to have
created fracturing within the Pha Nok Khao Formation, enhancing porosity and permeability locally.
The interpretation of the Si That Formation is complicated by the presence of these smaller
conjugate thrusts plus larger sub-trusts to the west of the structure. Nevertheless, a Best Estimate
interpretation has been audited by RPS and is deemed sufficient to adequately represent the base of
the reservoir sequence.
The upper surface is, for the most part, formed by the Indosinian-1 Unconformity that has eroded
the top of the SE dipping Pha Nok Khao reservoir sequence and the older Si That Formation. The
unconformity shows a strong change in seismic character to the underlying Pha Nok Khao and Si
That Formations. Therefore, a robust time interpretation is achieved for this event. As the Pha
Nok Khao Formation dips to the SE, the combined Indosinian-I and Pha Nok Khao horizons diverge
in the far eastern portion of the interpretation. This is, however, outside the closure of the
Sinphuhorm structure. Thus, the Indosinian-I Unconformity can be interpreted as forming the top
reservoir equivalent surface for the Sinphuhorm Gas Field.
Sinphuhorm straddles the EU1 and E5N blocks, and probably extends south into Block L15/43. The
drilling of well South PH-1 shows that gas is present in the southern block. Unfortunately, the
rock quality was poor, which has affected the deliverability of the well. This well is currently
ECV1837.03 6
RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
suspended pending evaluation of fracture stimulation potential. The presence of gas justifies the
extension of the mapped field closure into Block L15/43.
2.5 Petrophysics
The reservoir consists of fractured tight platform limestones and dolomites of the Mid Permian Pha
Nok Khao Formation. The pre-Triassic section below the Indosinian-1 Unconformity is structurally
complex and thrusted. Where thrusting has occurred, the porosity and permeability of the
reservoir is interpreted to have been increased by fracturing. Thus, essentially, a dual porosity
system has been established in the reservoir rock. The opposite is noted at the PH-7 and South
PH-1 well locations, which have not encountered significant sections of fractured reservoir and,
thus have low gas deliverability.
RPS has reviewed the third party evaluation of the Sinphuhorm wells conducted on behalf of
another field development participant and notes that log analyses have adequately assessed the rock
parameters of the limestone/dolomite matrix. Although the data sampling within the wells was not
optimal, best efforts have been made in assessing the rock parameters. Notably, the seemingly
poorer quality wells have the most complete datasets, which may skew the formation averages
towards the low side. In addition to the reservoir rock matrix, RPS has reviewed published
material of fractured reservoirs to estimate a range of rock parameters (porosity and water
saturation) for the fractured intervals of the Pha Nok Khao Formation.
The static volumetric estimate of GIIP have been based around uncertainties associated the rock
properties and the Gross Rock Volume (“GRV”). The GRV provides the largest uncertainty as
there remain wide ranges in the possible values for the:
i) the estimated gas-Water Contact (“GWC”) defining the vertical limit of the hydrocarbon-
bearing reservoir and
ii) the north-westerly extent of the Pha Nok Khao Formation, which, together with the GWC
place a large uncertainty in the areal extent of the hydrocarbon closure.
These are discussed below:
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RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Monte Carlo Parameter Inputs Low Input Mid Input High Input
2
Gross Rock Volume (km .m) 7.53 17.05 54.91
2
Area (km ) 57 92 165
Gas-water Contact (m TVDSS) -2,156 -2,279 -2,587
Net-to-Gross (%) 100 100 100
Matrix Porosity (%) 1.5 2.5 3.0
Matrix Water Saturation (%) 60.0 42.5 35.0
Fracture Porosity (%) 0.22 0.67 2.00
Fracture Water Saturation (%) 20 15 10
Gas Expansion Factor (scf/rcf) 207 208 209
Monte Carlo Outputs P90 P50 P10
GIIP (Bscf) 1,643 3,410 6,833
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RESERVES AND RESOURCES CERTIFICATION
FOR THE SINPHUHORM GAS FIELD AS OF 1st JANUARY, 2012
Production and reservoir pressure data were supplied by the field Operator to Coastal. Reservoir
pressures have been measured from wells PH-3ST, -4, -5 and -10ST using downhole gauges. Other
reservoir pressures have been derived from surface measurements (from wells PH-4 and PH-5).
Pressure and production data have demonstrated that there are (at least) two pressure separate
compartments (“tanks”) within the mapped closure. Further, and as demonstrated in this section,
RPS has noted a stark difference between the volumetric estimation of the GIIP (Section 2.6) and
that of the material balance volumetric modeling based on production and reservoir pressure
(Section 2.11). The material balance analysis suggests that the producing wells are unlikely to be
communicating with the full mapped reservoir volume. Therefore, RPS has categorised the GIIP
volumes as either “Mapped” (via structural closure) or “Connected” (via pressure communication
in the wellbores).
The “Connected” GIIP was estimated utilizing the dynamic data with the material balance method
applied for South and Central areas, and assumes volumetric depletion. The Central area consists
of wells PH-4 and PH-10ST, whereas the South area comprises wells PH-3 and PH-5. Interference
pressure data has confirmed pressure communication between wells PH-4 and PH-10ST in Central
area and between wells PH-3 and PH-5 in South areas1. Therefore, for this evaluation, a two tank
material balance model is used. Figure 2-4 depicts the reservoir pressures for these two areas.
Gas and condensate production history for Sinphuhorm up to and including 31st December, 2011 is
presented in Figure 2-5.
The well test history for the Sinphuhorm Gas Field is summarized below:
Phu Horm-3 was spudded on the 10th June, 2002 and temporarily suspended on 24th August, 2002
due to a gas kick. The well was re-entered on the 18th March, 2003 and the reservoir section was
drilled using underbalanced drilling techniques to reach a total depth of 2695 mMDBRT (metres
measured depth below rotary table). A buildup test over 300 hours was run, preceded by a flow
period of about equal duration in October 2003. The maximum gas rate during DST-1 was 44.8
MMscf/d at 252 psi drawdown.
Phu Horm-4 was spudded on the 9th June, 2004. The reservoir section was drilled underbalanced
and reached a total depth of 2621 mMDBRT. A buildup test lasting about 600 hours was run,
preceded by a flow of period of 170 hours in November 2004. The average gas rate during the
extended well test is 39.0 MMscf/d at 110 psi drawdown.
Phu Horm-5 was drilled during July-September 2004. The reservoir section was drilled
underbalanced with the top of reservoir at 2477 mMDRT to a total depth of 2921 mMDRT. A
buildup test lasting about 180 hours was run, preceded by a modified-isochronal test to obtain well
deliverability during 17-27 July 2007. The average gas rates are provided in Table 2-3.
1 Sinphuhorm Field Reserves Assessment Methodology by HESS Oil & Gas (Thailand) Limited, dated 31st December, 2008.
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Phu Horm-7 was spudded on the 27th September, 2006. The reservoir section was drilled under-
balanced with no gas shows. PH-7 was suspended and the rig was released on 9th May, 2007.
Phu Horm-6 was drilled in a batch mode with the Phu Horm-7, and was spudded on the 12th
January, 2007. On 15th April, 2007, the well was suspended after extensive flow testing. The gas
flow rates were deemed sub-commercial for a tie-in at the time. The average sustained flow rate
on test was 1.5 MMscf/day; however, during under-balanced drilling of the Pha Nok Khao
Formation the well produced gas at rates up to 4 MMscf/day. It appears that some formation
damage may have occurred when the well was killed during the later stages of the drilling
operation. The well may be re-entered and stimulated at a later date; and all forecasts assume that,
after stimulation, this well will achieve a similar inflow capacity as that currently seen from Phu
Horm-10.
Phu Horm-10 was spudded on the 27th July, 2007. The well was sidetracked due to a stuck
bottom-hole assembly. The main flow test (post-acidization) was conducted from 16th to 19th
September, 2007 with an average flow rate of 9.9 MMscf/d at WHP of 1825 psi. SIWHP at the end
of the test was 2773 psi. The Phu Horm-10 well was brought on stream as a production well in the
first quarter of 2008 and produced at an average rate of 10 MMscf/d. There are indications of
mechanical problems with the completion in this well and a re-entry is currently being planned.
The South Phu Horm–1 well was spudded on 18th February, 2008 and reached a total depth of
2660 mMDBRT. This well also tested gas at sub-commercial rates. The well was suspended
pending evaluation of the stimulation potential.
Sinphuhorm gas is dry, with a methane content of 96 mole percent and a pentane plus (C5+)
content of less than one mole percent.
Surface gas, liquid and water samples were collected from the PH-3, -4, and -5 wells during multi-
rate tests. Further Pressure Volume Temperature (“PVT”) analyses were performed on wells PH-3
and -4. These tests show carbon dioxide up to 0.5 mole percent and very minimal traces of
hydrogen sulphide (0.001%). Based on production data, the average Condensate Gas Ratio
(“CGR”) is approximately 5.1 stb/MMscf.
Sufficient data is available to assess the range of in-place hydrocarbons within the Sinphuhorm Gas
Field. This has been completed using geological mapping (Section 2.6) but can also be achieved by
assessing the material balance of the field based on the current wells and pressure analyses.
An interpretation of the gas volumes that are in effective communication with the currently
producing wells (PH-3, -4, -5 and 10ST) has been conducted. Material Balance (“P/Z”) methods
were used to estimate the volume of “Connected” GIIP for individual tanks, as illustrated in Figure
2-8. Two separate tanks were modeled in MBalTM. Each tank has two wells;
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RPS had generated the P/Z plots (Figure 2-7) for South and Central Areas separately using all the
available pressure data. The GIIP distribution by “tank” is provided in Table 2-5, with the range of
Low, Best and High Estimates based on the uncertainty associated with plotting the straight line
through the data points. These volumes are the classified as “Connected” GIIPs. The Operator’s
Best Estimate GIIP from the P/Z plot (Figure 2-8) assuming “Connected Area” as one tank is 769
Bscf, which is equal to the average of RPS’s Low Estimate and Best Estimate GIIPs.
Compartmentalization remains a possibility in the Central area but more pressure data are
required to support this model. As the P/Z plot shows a straight line relationship (Figure 2-7),
RPS has concluded that a volumetric depletion mechanism is most likely for the Sinphuhorm Gas
Field based on the available data.
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Table 2-5 – Effective “Connected” Estimates of GIIP, Sinphuhorm Gas Field (Bscf, 100% Basis)
If the above volumes are back-interpolated using the average rock and engineering input parameters
from the “Mapped” GIIP assessment, is discovered that the “tanks” cover approximate areas of 10-
9 to 12 km2 each, which is significantly less that the Mapped Low Estimate GIIP area of 57 km2 and
the Best Estimate GIIP area of 92 km2 (see Table 2-2).
A pressure gradient survey in PH-1 (about 4.3 km north of PH-10ST) conducted on 30th October,
2010 indicates a pressure depletion of 89 psi (2.5%) from the virgin reservoir pressure of 3680 psia
taken in December 1984. The recent pressure gradient survey was conducted on 20th September,
2011 indicates a pressure depletion of 141 psi (3.8%). The PH-1 Shut-in Tubing Head Pressure
monitoring indicating a pressure drop of 15 psi from 28th April, 2011 to 8th September, 2011.
Table 2-6 – Differences between the “Mapped” and “Connected” GIIP Estimates,
Sinphuhorm Gas Field (Bscf, 100% Basis)
The difference between the volumetric estimates and the material balance modeling suggests that
the producing wells may not be communicating with the full reservoir volume. The Best Estimates
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of “Connected” GIIP are approximately a quarter of the volume of the Best Estimate “Mapped’
GIIP.
The field is most likely divided into two or more areas that are separated by a large fault or zones
of tight/un-fractured Pha Nok Khao Formation. This compartmentalisation is supported by
pressure data that suggests the two areas are not in significant pressure communication.
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Table 2-7 – Drilling Infill and Appraisal Wells and Wells Allocations for Reserves
2 SPE, AAPG, WPC, SPEE, SEG, November 2011: Guidelines for Application of the Petroleum Resources Management System, pp221.
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external approvals will be forthcoming, and there is evidence of firm intention to proceed
with development within a reasonable time frame.
To be included in the Reserves class, there must be a high confidence in the commercial
producibility of the reservoir as supported by actual production or formation tests. In
certain cases, Reserves may be assigned on the basis of well logs and/or core analysis that
indicate that the subject reservoir is hydrocarbon-bearing and is analogous to reservoirs in
the same area that are producing or have demonstrated the ability to produce on
formation tests.
RPS has maintained a portion of the currently defined “Unconnected” volumes as Reserves but
notes that these will be re-classified as Contingent Resources unless all of the commercial
determination requirements stated above are demonstrated by the end of 2012.
Gas Volumes
Low Best High
Estimate Estimate Estimate
“Connected” GIIP, Bscf (Table 2-6) 714 824 957
“Unconnected” GIIP, Bscf (Table 2-6) 1) 0 2,586 5,876
TOTAL GIIP, Bscf 714 3,410 6,833
Overall Recovery Factor, % (back interpolated) 90% 50% 83%
Total Wellhead Gas EUR, Bscf 2) 643 1,719 5,657
Total Sales Gas EUR, Bscf 3) 638 1,707 5,618
Note :
1) No development of the “Unconnected” volumes for the Low Estimate.
2) Best and High Estimates assume full production to 2050 (effective ultimate EUR).
3) After applying shrinkage of 0.7% due to fuel and flare.
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The exact Sinphuhorm DCQ reduction amounts will depend on the decline of the Nam Phong field.
The DCQ reduction, as currently provided by Coastal and Salamander, is therefore as set out in
the profile in Table 2-9 but will be dependent on the effective Nam Phong producing rates.
Table 2-9 – Sinphuhorm Gas Sales Agreement – DCQ and DCQ Reduction
DCQ Reduction 2
Contract DCQ Sinphuhorm
Period Nam Phong 1
Year (MMscf/d) (MMscf/d)
(MMscf/d)
1 1/10/2006 – 30/09/2007 108 19.0 89.0
2 1/10/2007 – 30/09/2008 108 15.6 92.4
3 1/10/2008 – 30/09/2009 108 11.1 96.9
4 1/10/2009 – 30/09/2010 108 17.6 90.4
5 1/10/2010 – 30/09/2011 108 12.7 95.3 5
3 5
6 1/10/2011 – 30/09/2012 108 12.0 96.0
7 1/10/2012 – 30/09/2013 108 11.2 96.8
8 1/10/2013 – 30/09/2014 108 9.7 98.4
9 1/10/2014 – 30/09/2015 108 8.3 99.7
10 1/10/2015 – 30/09/2016 108 7.2 100.8
11 1/10/2016 – 30/09/2017 108 6.2 101.8
12 1/10/2017 – 30/09/2018 108 5.3 102.7
13 1/10/2018 – 30/09/2019 108 4.6 103.4
14 1/10/2019 – 30/09/2020 108 3.9 104.1
15 1/10/2020 – 30/09/2021 108 3.3 104.7
4
16 1/10/2021 – 28/11/2021 108 0 108.0
Notes
1) The Nam Phong Expected Forecast (updated by Coastal and Salamander)
2) Sinphuhorm DCQ – GSA DCQ – Nam Phong Production
3) 1st January, 2012 is in Contract Year 6.
4)
Contract Year 16 has 58 days (from 1st October, 2021 to 28th November, 2021)
5)
The buyer had requested an increase to the DCQ rate to 96 MMscf/d from 9th January, 2011.
Therefore, the average DCQ rate for contract year 5 (from 1st October, 2010 to 30th September,
2011) was 95.3 MMscf/d. RPS had assumed that the DCQ rate remains 96 MMscf until the end of
contract year 6. For the subsequent contract years, the DCQ rates remain as per the previous
evaluation.
As of 31st December, 2011, 156.7 Bscf of gas has been sold from the Sinphuhorm Gas Field. Due to
flooding, the gas production has been reduced from September until December 2011. It has been
assumed that the production will be back to normal rate in April 2012. As of December 2011,
approximately 8 Bscf of contracted gas volume is not sold due to gas production at reduced rate.
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It should be noted that the Sinphuhorm production license for the EU1 and E5N blocks expire on
19th May, 2034 extend beyond the current GSA expiry date of 28th November, 2021. Coastal are
confident that an extension or new GSA might be signed, particularly as the field will be producing
at its highest rate in 2021. Based that a new/extended GSA will be signed, we have estimated 2P
and 3P Reserves volumes.
Section 3.3.3 of the March 2007 SPE PRMS document states that ”where the risk of cessation of rights
to produce, or inability to secure gas contracts, is not considered significant, evaluators may choose to
incorporate the uncertainty by categorizing quantities to be recovered beyond the current contract as
Probable or Possible Reserves”.
In the current economic climate, RPS believes that it is probable, but, by no means certain, that the
vendor will locate a willing buyer for the remaining gas volumes; and that the resulting terms will be
sufficiently attractive for Coastal and its partners to maintain their ongoing participation. Note,
however, the extension GSA volumes are almost exclusively produced from the conceptual
development of the “Unconnected” volumes. Thus, they are at risk of being re-classified as
Contingent Resources as stated in Section 2.11.1 of this report. Table 2-10 provides a
summary.
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Notes:
1)
Assumes only “Connected” volumes are sold in the Low Estimate Gas Sales case.
2)
Uncontracted Sales Gas and Condensate volumes are assigned to Contingent Resources.
Maintenance days have been allocated in the Gas Sales Agreement; applying 20 days per year in the
Low Estimate and no downtime for the Best and High Estimates. This reduces solely the minimum
obligation of the buyer and not the vendor.
Note:
1) After applying 0.7% shrinkage for fuel and flare.
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L15/43 Scale
0 (km) 25
N th Phu
North Ph Horm
H
Sinphuhorm
L27/43
Nam
Phong
Figure 2-1 – Location of the Sinphuhorm Gas Field and Concession L15/43
L27/43
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Karsted Ls.
Dolomite
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PH-1
PH-2
PH-6
PH-4
PH-10
PH-7
PH-5 PH-3
SPH-1
5 km
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PH-10ST PH-4
4000
3800
eservoir Pressure (psia)
3600
3400
3200
3000
2800
2600
Re
2400
2200
2000
Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12
Date
PH-5
PH 5 PH-3
PH 3
4000
3800
Reservoirr Pressure (psia)
3600
3400
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12
Date
3900
3700
e (psia)
3500
Reservoir Pressure
3300
3100
2900
2700
2500
May 05
May-05 Oct 06
Oct-06 Feb 08
Feb-08 Jul 09
Jul-09 Nov 10
Nov-10 Apr 12
Apr-12
Date
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Central Area ‐ Gas Rate & FWHP
PH‐10ST Gas Rate PH‐4 Gas Rate PH‐10ST FWHP PH‐4 FWHP
120.00
3000.0
100.00
2500.0
80.00
2000.0
Mscf/d)
FWHP (pssig)
Gas Rate (MM
60.00
1500.0
40.00 1000.0
20.00 500 0
500.0
0.00 0.0
29‐Nov‐06 25‐Sep‐07 21‐Jul‐08 17‐May‐09 13‐Mar‐10 07‐Jan‐11 03‐Nov‐11
Date
South Area ‐ Gas Rate & FWHP
PH‐5 Gas Rate PH‐3 Gas Rate PH‐5 FWHP PH‐3 FWHP
100.00
3000.0
90.00
80.00 2500.0
70.00
2000.0
Gas Rate (MMscf/d)
60.00
FWHP (psig)
50.00
1500.0
40.00
1000 0
1000.0
30.00
20.00
500.0
10.00
0.00 0.0
29‐Nov‐06 25‐Sep‐07 21‐Jul‐08 17‐May‐09 13‐Mar‐10 07‐Jan‐11 03‐Nov‐11
Date
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Central Area
Central Area Low Est. Best Est. High Est.
4500
4000
3500
3000
sia)
2500
P/Z (ps
2000
1500
1000
500
0 444.5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
South Area
South Area Low Est. Best Est. High Est.
4500
4000
3500
3000
P/Z (psia)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 379.5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
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3 Commercial Evaluation
3.1 Thai Concession Terms
The Sinphuhorm gas field lies within the EU1 and E-5 production licenses on the Khorat Plateau,
Thailand. The principal commercial terms are summarized in Table 3-1:
It is assumed that maintenance operations are curtailed and de-manning commences in the last four
years of the contract period.
Table 3-2 presents a summary of the forecasted Capital Expenditure (“CAPEX”) and Operating
Expenditure (“OPEX”) for the 1P, 2P, and 3P profiles provided by Coastal.
Table 3-2 – Forecast CAPEX and OPEX (US$ Million, 2012) for the Sinphuhorm Development
1P 2P 3P
Year
CAPEX OPEX CAPEX OPEX CAPEX OPEX
2012 4.3 14.8 4.3 14.8 4.3 14.8
2013 56.65 20.6 116.8 20.6 116.8 20.6
2014 10.2 14.3 16.4 14.3 16.4 14.3
2015 14.4 14.8 14.4 14.8 14.4 14.8
2016 10.7 15.1 10.7 15.1 10.7 15.1
2017 15.1 15.1 15.1
2018 15.1 15.1 15.1
2019 15.1 15.1 15.1
2020 15.1 15.1 15.1
2021 15.1 15.1 15.1
2022 15.1 15.1
2023 15.1 15.1
2024 15.1 15.1
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1P 2P 3P
Year
CAPEX OPEX CAPEX OPEX CAPEX OPEX
2025 15.1 15.1
2026 15.1 15.1
2027 15.1 15.1
2028 15.1 15.1
2029 15.1 15.1
2030 15.1 15.1
2031 15.1 15.1
2032 15.1 15.1
2033 15.1 15.1
2034 15.1 15.1
2035 15.1 15.1
2036 15.1 15.1
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Table 3-3 – Estimated Unitised Share for the Sinphuhorm Gas Field
1P 100% 0% 12.60%
The percentages that RPS has presented in this report are based solely on RPS’s assessment of the
structure of the Sinphuhorm Gas Field and any envisaged unitisation activities. Any working
interest and resource estimates regarding the unitised share for the Sinphuhorm Gas Field are
subject to change with further data acquisition and future activities.
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4 Resource Statement
The extent of the Sinphuhorm Field has not been fully delineated by drilling. In RPS’s assessment,
the “Connected” volume does not extend into the exploration concession to the South (L15/43),
so there are no unitization assumptions in the Low Estimate EUR Forecast. Resulting Proved
volumes are based on the assumption that Coastal’s Working Interest will remain at 12.6%.
For the Best Estimate GIIP, approximately 6% of the “Mapped” field was estimated to lie in block
L15/43. Coastal’s Working Interest in that concession is 36.1% through their 100% interest in
APICO. Thus, any production from this area would result in a small increase in Coastal’s Working
Interest in the Sinphuhorm Field. It is estimated that this would have the effect of increasing
Coastal’s Working Interest in a unitized Sinphuhorm field to 14.0% in the Best Estimate scenario.
This Working Interest has been used in the estimation of the 2P Reserves and 2C Contingent
Resources.
The High Estimate 3P and 3C cases assume approximately 15.3% of the mapped field lies in block
L15/43. This increased Coastal’s Working Interest in the Sinphuhorm Field to 16.2%. It has been
assumed that negotiations and equity determinations will be completed by 1st January, 2014, at
which time equalization payments will be made.
Table 4-1 and Table 4-2 show the gross sales gas and condensate Reserves as of 1st January,
2012.
Table 4-1 – Sinphuhorm Field Gross Reserves Estimate as of 1st January, 2012
Gross Reserves
Proved Proved plus Proved plus
Probable Probable plus
Possible
Sinphuhorm Sales Gas (Bscf) 344 957 957
Sinphuhorm Condensate (MMbbl) 1.8 4.9 4.9
Total (MMBOE)(1) 59.0 164.3 164.3
Notes:
1) Gas to BOE conversion factor is 6.0 Bscf per 1.0 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE).
Table 4-2 – Sinphuhorm Field Coastal’s Net Entitlement Reserves Estimate as of 1st January, 2012
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Table 4-3 and Table 4-4 show the sales gas and condensate Reserves reconciliation. Apart from
production adjustments, the revisions to 1st January, 2012 for the field have shown:
The reduction in gas Reserves are due to Coastal’s assumption that the Nam Phong field
decline is much less than previously assumed; this reduces the Sinphuhorm DCQ rate.
A slight decrease in condensate volume is due to use of lower historical CGR and
reduced raw gas production.
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Reconciliations have been completed for Coastal’s Working Interest and Net Company Reserves,
as presented in Table 4-5 and Table 4-6.
Table 4-5 – Sinphuhorm Field Coastal Net Company Sales Gas Reserves
Reconciliation (Forecast Prices and Costs)
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The gas and condensate production profiles are presented in Figure 4-1 and Figure 4-2,
respectively. Forecast charts for the respective hydrocarbon streams are presented in Figure 4-3
and Figure 4-4.
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Notes: 1P uses 314 days in 2021 (from 1 Jan 2021 till 28 Nov 2021 with 18 days maintenance days)
1P - Assumes 20 maintenance days per year.
2P & 3P - No maintenance days and end date is 28 November 2036.
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Notes: 1P uses 314 days in 2021 (from 1 Jan 2021 till 28 Nov 2021 with 18 days maintenance days)
1P - Assumes 20 maintenance days per year.
2P & 3P - No maintenance days and end date is 28 November 2036.
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100
80
MMscf/d
60
40
20
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
1P 2P 3P
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500
400
stb/d
300
200
100
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
1P 2P 3P
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Table 5-1 – Sinphuhorm Field Summary of the Evaluation of the Petroleum Reserves
as of 1st January, 2012
Remaining
Net Present Values (US$ Million)
Ultimate Reserves
Product Classification
Reserves Company Before Income Taxes After Income Taxes
Gross Net 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
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Table 5-2 – Total Future Net Revenue Undiscounted Forecast Prices and Costs as of 1st January, 2012
Future Future
Abandonment Net Net
Operating Development & Revenue Income Revenue
Revenue Royalties
Costs Costs Reclamation Before Tax After
Reserves Category
Costs Income Income
Tax Tax
US$ Million
Monte Carlo Parameter Inputs Low Input Mid Input High Input
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Table 5-4 – Estimates of Proved Reserves and Net Present Values for the Sinphuhorm Field (as of 1st January, 2012)
Sinphuhorm
Field, 343,690 5.14 1,765 12.6 222 0 222
Thailand
1 Net Entitlement: Thailand is a Tax and Royalty regime. Royalty is treated as tax and is paid in cash, and thus, attributable Net Entitlement Share is reported as Coastal’s working interest
volumes including associated Royalty volumes.
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Table 5-5 – Estimates of Proved Plus Probable Reserves and Net Present Values for the Sinphuhorm Field (as of 1st January, 2012)
Sinphuhorm
Field 956,616 5.14 4,913 13.9 683 0 683
Thailand
1 Net Entitlement: Thailand is a Tax and Royalty regime. Royalty is treated as tax and is paid in cash, and thus, attributable Net Entitlement Share is reported as Coastal’s working
interest volumes including associated Royalty volumes.
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Table 5-6 – Sinphuhorm Field Remaining Gas Reserves Reconciliation, 100% Basis
Table 5-7 – Sinphuhorm Field Remaining Condensate Reserves Reconciliation, 100% Basis
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Table 5-8 – Sinphuhorm Field Remaining Gas Reserves Reconciliation, Coastal’s Net Entitlement
Table 5-9 – Sinphuhorm Field Remaining Condensate Reserves Reconciliation, Coastal’s Net Entitlement
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Appendices
APPENDIX I
GLOSSARY OF TECHNICAL
TERMS
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APPENDIX II
RESERVES AND RESOURCES
DEFINITIONS AND GUIDELINES
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3 These Definitions and Guidelines are extracted from the Society of Petroleum Engineers / World Petroleum Council /
American Association of Petroleum Geologists / Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE)
Petroleum Resources Management System document (“SPE PRMS”), approved in March 2007, and available, free and in
full, at: www.spe.org/spe-app/spe/industry/reserves/index.htm
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RESERVES
Reserves are those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application
of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.
Reserves must satisfy four criteria: they must be discovered, recoverable, commercial, and remaining based
on the development project(s) applied. Reserves are further subdivided in accordance with the level of
certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on project maturity and/or
characterized by their development and production status. To be included in the Reserves class, a project
must be sufficiently defined to establish its commercial viability. There must be a reasonable expectation that
all required internal and external approvals will be forthcoming, and there is evidence of firm intention to
proceed with development within a reasonable time frame. A reasonable time frame for the initiation of
development depends on the specific circumstances and varies according to the scope of the project. While 5
years is recommended as a benchmark, a longer time frame could be applied where, for example,
development of economic projects are deferred at the option of the producer for, among other things,
market-related reasons, or to meet contractual or strategic objectives. In all cases, the justification for
classification as Reserves should be clearly documented. To be included in the Reserves class, there must be a
high confidence in the commercial producibility of the reservoir as supported by actual production or
formation tests. In certain cases, Reserves may be assigned on the basis of well logs and/or core analysis that
indicate that the subject reservoir is hydrocarbon-bearing and is analogous to reservoirs in the same area
that are producing or have demonstrated the ability to produce on formation tests.
Proved Reserves
Proved Reserves are those quantities of petroleum, which by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be
estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs
and under defined economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.
If deterministic methods are used, the term reasonable certainty is intended to express a high degree of
confidence that the quantities will be recovered. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a
90% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. The area of the
reservoir considered as Proved includes:
the area delineated by drilling and defined by fluid contacts, if any, and
adjacent undrilled portions of the reservoir that can reasonably be judged as continuous with it and
commercially productive on the basis of available geoscience and engineering data.
In the absence of data on fluid contacts, Proved quantities in a reservoir are limited by the lowest known
hydrocarbon (LKH) as seen in a well penetration unless otherwise indicated by definitive geoscience,
engineering, or performance data. Such definitive information may include pressure gradient analysis and
seismic indicators. Seismic data alone may not be sufficient to define fluid contacts for Proved Reserves (see
“2001 Supplemental Guidelines,” Chapter 8). Reserves in undeveloped locations may be classified as Proved
provided that the locations are in undrilled areas of the reservoir that can be judged with reasonable
certainty to be commercially productive. Interpretations of available geoscience and engineering data indicate
with reasonable certainty that the objective formation is laterally continuous with drilled Proved locations.
For Proved Reserves, the recovery efficiency applied to these reservoirs should be defined based on a range
of possibilities supported by analogs and sound engineering judgment considering the characteristics of the
Proved area and the applied development program.
Probable Reserves
Probable Reserves are those additional Reserves which analysis of geoscience and engineering data indicate are less
likely to be recovered than Proved Reserves but more certain to be recovered than Possible Reserves.
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It is equally likely that actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater than or less than the sum of the
estimated Proved plus Probable Reserves (2P). In this context, when probabilistic methods are used, there
should be at least a 50% probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the 2P estimate.
Probable Reserves may be assigned to areas of a reservoir adjacent to Proved where data control or
interpretations of available data are less certain. The interpreted reservoir continuity may not meet the
reasonable certainty criteria. Probable estimates also include incremental recoveries associated with project
recovery efficiencies beyond that assumed for Proved.
Possible Reserves
Possible Reserves are those additional Reserves which analysis of geoscience and engineering data indicate are less
likely to be recoverable than Probable Reserves
The total quantities ultimately recovered from the project have a low probability to exceed the sum of
Proved plus Probable plus Possible (3P), which is equivalent to the high estimate scenario. When probabilistic
methods are used, there should be at least a 10% probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or
exceed the 3P estimate. Possible Reserves may be assigned to areas of a reservoir adjacent to Probable
where data control and interpretations of available data are progressively less certain. Frequently, this may be
in areas where geoscience and engineering data are unable to clearly define the area and vertical reservoir
limits of commercial production from the reservoir by a defined project. Possible estimates also include
incremental quantities associated with project recovery efficiencies beyond that assumed for Probable.
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CONTINGENT RESOURCES
Those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from
known accumulations by application of development projects, but which are not currently considered
to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies.
Contingent Resources may include, for example, projects for which there are currently no viable markets, or
where commercial recovery is dependent on technology under development, or where evaluation of the
accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality. Contingent Resources are further categorized in
accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on
project maturity and/or characterized by their economic status.
PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES
Those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable
from undiscovered accumulations.
Potential accumulations are evaluated according to their chance of discovery and, assuming a discovery, the
estimated quantities that would be recoverable under defined development projects. It is recognized that the
development programs will be of significantly less detail and depend more heavily on analog developments in
the earlier phases of exploration.
Prospect- A project associated with a potential accumulation that is sufficiently well defined to represent a
viable drilling target.
Project activities are focused on assessing the chance of discovery and, assuming discovery, the range of
potential recoverable quantities under a commercial development program.
Lead- A project associated with a potential accumulation that is currently poorly defined and requires more
data acquisition and/or evaluation in order to be classified as a prospect.
Project activities are focused on acquiring additional data and/or undertaking further evaluation designed to
confirm whether or not the lead can be matured into a prospect. Such evaluation includes the assessment of
the chance of discovery and, assuming discovery, the range of potential recovery under feasible development
scenarios.
Play- A project associated with a prospective trend of potential prospects, but which requires more data
acquisition and/or evaluation in order to define specific leads or prospects.
Project activities are focused on acquiring additional data and/or undertaking further evaluation designed to
define specific leads or prospects for more detailed analysis of their chance of discovery and, assuming
discovery, the range of potential recovery under hypothetical development scenarios.
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