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10 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
>
MUMBAI | MONDAY, 27 AUGUST 2018 1

What Broadcast India 2018 tells us education above SSC/HSC has gone
up by 5 per cent to 379 million, while
the country currently boasts of 93
million graduates. Yes, the dream of
> CHINESE WHISPERS

The survey results bring out more than TV-related stats and points to an India on the move —
on some key social and economic indices
ery format, the number of TV chan-
nels etc are all evolving along with
technology and changing tastes. At
India’s television viewership meas-
urement company, we deep-dived
into this ‘changing India’ in the
recently released Broadcast India (BI)
2018 survey. The survey brings out
the underlying changes in con-
sumer/viewer profiles in our towns,
cities and villages.
What are the big takeaways of
PARTHO DASGUPTA the survey?
First, television is not going away or
“dying” — as some doomsayers have
been proclaiming for a few years now.
individuals is 7.2 per cent — from 780
to 836 million. I remain optimistic
about the future of TV because even
now 100 million Indian homes don’t
have access to TV.
The survey results bring out more
than TV related stats and it points to
an India on the move — on some key
social and economic indices. The
Indian government has devoted a
huge amount of its attention and
resources on making India clean
through its Swachh Bharat campaign.
Between 2016-18, the Central govern-
ment aired 480,000 ad spots on TV to
educate citizens on cleanliness and
per cent; while 86 per cent of urban
homes currently have toilets, up from
83 per cent.
Let’s look at another area that has
been a key focus for the government:
Electrification. As per BI-2018, 99 per
cent of urban and 91 per cent of rural
homes have access to electricity. What
we have also observed is that one of
the first things that a family buys once
they have access to electricity is a TV
set. Refrigerator, electric mixer are
lower in the shopping list.
BI-2018 data also validates the
efforts under the government’s
Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana. On
seeing an India that is 100 per cent
educated, is still far. But this growth A last-ditch effort?
gives hope of making this a reality.
You know a country is on the right
growth path, when more and more
woman attain ‘working’ status. BI-
2018 points out that since 2016, 25
per cent more women have moved
from being a housewife to a working
woman. The working married
woman category currently stands at
101 million, as against 81 million in
2016. One statistic that would give
each Indian a reason to feel proud.
The BI survey highlights a shift in Many were surprised when Bahujan
the country’s socio-economic com- Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati
position. Thanks to the improving (pictured) was seen last week celebrating
disposable income, NCCS D/E or the rakshabandhan with Indian National Lok
lower income group have moved up Dal (INLD) chief Om Prakash Chautala’s son
the ladder, leading to a rise of the Abhay Chautala. Efforts by the largely Jat-
centric INLD to be seen close to Mayawati

O
ne commonly heard phrase in
any market is “we are evolv-
ing, every single day”. When it
comes to India, it is more than a mere
statement. In the broadcast sector
particularly, the pace of change and
evolution is dizzying. Content, deliv-
Yes digital viewing is growing rapidly.
But TV continues to grow and will do
so in the foreseeable future. Our BI-
2018 survey has revealed a 7.5 per cent
growth in TV owning homes since
2016 — from 183 to 197 million. The
corresponding growth in TV viewing
the use of toilets. BI-2018 shows that
those efforts are paying huge divi-
dends. About 71 per cent of Indian
homes today have access to toilets,
up from 58 per cent in 2016. Rural
homes with toilets have grown from a
low of 45 per cent to a respectable 63
the ground, LPG/PNG penetration in
India has gone up from 58 per cent to
72 per cent of homes. While 91 per
cent of urban homes use clean cook-
ing gas, in rural, it stands at 62 per
cent. The country is making headway
on the education front. People with
middle class (NCCS B & C) that now
comprise 47 per cent of the total
homes. For advertisers, this is the
segment to watch out for.
The author is CEO, Broadcast Audience
Research Council, India
are being interpreted as a last-ditch effort
by the party to come back in the reckoning
in Uttar Pradesh after a decade-and-a-
half of being in the wilderness. The
Balmikis account for about 19 per cent of
the Scheduled Caste votes in the state. The
last time INLD joined hands with the BSP,
the results were worth the effort. The INLD,
known as Haryana Lok Dal (Rashtriya) in

Can India escape a crony populism trap?

1998, won four of the seven Lok Sabha
seats it contested in Haryana, while the
BSP won Ambala (reserved) seat of the
three it contested.

India’s real risk is not that crony populism would fail, but that it would succeed, consolidating a path that is
fundamentally a trap, both in terms of social inequalities and long-term growth
“the people”, authoritarian prefer-
ences, and a cruel underbelly, targeted
at “other” groups.
But political leaders also need
business support, for political finance
and investment. Here the combina-
tion of economic nationalism and con-
centrated, personalised leadership
provides fertile ground for links with
cronies. Crony populism involves a
blend of a classically tight link
between the political leadership and
MICHAEL WALTON
core business supporters, plus a pow-
erful narrative and action supporting
the favoured core popular constituen-
ing the fertile ground of the scams and
(Figure 1) Net worth of the top rampant cronyism of the second UPA
10 Indian billionaires ($BN) period? And hasn’t high-level corruption
150 declined? All observers agree that the
Total networth pervasive transactional corruption of the
140 late UPA period has been brought under
control in the Centre. However, the new
130 pattern appears to be of favoured gains
for the truly influential, often in legal
120 forms, even as fears of investigation have
cast a chill over much regular investment
110 activity. The real plutocrats have appar-
ently done well. According to Forbes,
100 India’s top 10 billionaires have enjoyed a
rise in their net worth of some two thirds
90
and economic policies.
But can India transit from The
Billionaire Raj (in the evocative name of
James Crabtree’s book), as the US did a
century ago? The populist response to
the US gilded age was followed by the
progressive movement, with an array of
executive, legislative and judicial action
to curb the power of the “robber barons”
and introduce a range of protections for
workers and citizens, consolidated (after
a massive economic crisis) in the inclu-
sionary new deal. But the US historical
transition occurred in the context of an
effective alignment between populist
No deal
A discussion, a dinner and then a movie
date. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal
reportedly tried every trick in the book to
persuade ex-colleague and erstwhile
journalist Ashutosh to change his mind
about leaving the Aam Aadmi Party. It
was in end-June that Ashutosh
communicated to his boss his decision to
move on. When discussions fell through,
Kejriwal reportedly took Ashutosh out for
dinner, where the party’s top leadership,
including Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh
and Gopal Rai, were present. The CM, his
deputy and Ashutosh even watched a
recently released movie, Mulk, with their
families, but to no avail.

A
striking feature of the current
global wave of populism is that
populist leaders often maintain
close links with their business support-
ers. Donald Trump mobilises his base,
rails against “elites” and delivers regu-
latory favours and jobs to his business
pals. Crony populism is a better name
for this. This typifies Turkey under
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hungary
under Viktor Orban… and India under
Narendra Modi. Is India becoming
entrenched in a crony populist trap? Are
there forces that will pull it out?
How to think about crony pop-
ulism? Let’s start with populism. As
economic historian Barry Eichengreen
argues in his history of populism in
the US and Europe, these movements
have three core characteristics: Anti-
elite, nativism, and economic nation-
alism (typically via protectionism).
This generally comes with charismat-
ic leaders boasting a direct link with
cy, including demonising other elites
and outsider groups. For charismatic
political entrepreneurs with a com-
mon touch, this is a great strategy,
whether it builds off economic inse-
curity and cultural anxiety amongst
historically dominant social groups,
as in the US and Europe, or the much-
celebrated, rising aspirations of mid-
dle and lower groups experiencing
new forms of insecurity and anxiety in
developing countries.
Take Trump and Modi. While their
background and styles are very differ-
ent, there are strikingly common pat-
terns. Both have a brilliant capacity to
sense and mobilise popular sentiment
amongst their base. Trump channels
the anxieties and concerns of the white
working class; Modi of middle and
poorer groups sick of daily corruption.
Both skillfully use anti-elite narratives,
whether against Wall Street for Trump,
or India’s established elites, especially,
80
70
2014 2015 2016
Note: this includes the top ten billionaires that appeared in all
years
of course, the Nehru-Gandhi clan. Both
brilliantly manage narratives on pop-
ulist policies that their bases support,
even when these hurt them: Trump’s
tariffs; Modi’s demonetisation. Both
enjoy widespread support from the
business sector. And both sustain sup-
port through explicit or implicit
demonising of the “other”— Mexicans
and African-American for Trump, and
Muslims for Modi, in his de facto
embrace of Hindutva ideology.
But for India, isn’t it true that Modi
swept to power on an anti-corruption
and pro-development discourse, exploit-
between 2014 and 2018. Mukesh Ambani
has seen his net worth rise by over 115 per
cent. Gautam Adani has enjoyed a rise of
almost 250 per cent. This is rather more
than the growth of incomes of most
2017 2018 Indians (Figure 1).
If India is indeed consolidating a
Source: Forbes.com form of crony populism, what are the
consequences? Hasn’t growth been pret-
ty good? This is where the internal con-
tradictions emerge. First, populist strate-
gies have to promise short-term benefits,
whether in free televisions, loan write-
offs, or universal health. These lead to
fiscal pressures. Second, while the crony-
ist dimension can deliver for a while — in
political finance and major investment
deals — it is eventually inefficient, lead-
ing to major rent extraction and a return
of the anti-plutocrat sentiment. Last
but not least, exclusionary politics
intensify polarisation.
Populism rarely gets aligned with
the goal of efficient, inclusionary social
movements, a vigorous and independ-
ent press, civil society activism, an inde-
pendent Supreme Court, and competi-
tive major parties. In each of these areas
India’s current direction of travel is in
the opposite direction. The larger risk is
of the intensification of an exclusion-
ary Hindutva-based resolution with ris-
ing authoritarianism — more like the
current Turkish and Hungarian route,
and undoubtedly the one Trump would
like to follow, if only he could. India’s
real risk is not that crony populism
would fail, but that it would succeed,
consolidating a path that is fundamen-
tally a trap, both in terms of social
inequalities and long-term growth.
(This is part of a dialogue series of
the Centre for Policy Research and
Trivedi Centre for Political Data,
Ashoka University )
The author teaches at the Harvard Kennedy
School and is senior visiting fellow at the CPR
All’s well
A routine traffic stop in Bhopal turned
out to be a social media spectacle just
before rakshabandhan. A traffic rule
violator was stopped outside the Vidhan
Sabha in Madhya Pradesh's capital city.
The offender claimed he was the
brother-in-law of state Chief Minister
Shivraj Singh Chouhan and threatened
to call him. The entire incident was
filmed by passers by and traffic cops and
at some point it was uploaded on social
media. While the nature of the traffic
offense could not be ascertained, the
video showed traffic slowing down on
the busy road as cops and people
gathered around the key actors. Later,
when Chouhan was told about the
episode, he said: “I have crores of sisters
in MP and I am a brother-in-law to
many. Let law take its course”.

NDA vs UPA: A scorecard
The only area where Modi could have an edge is the economy, but Singh
ran a more democratic government
KARAN THAPAR
AS I SEE IT
Monetary Policy Committee, the
extension of fixed term employment
to all sectors of the economy, the new
health insurance scheme, electrifica-
tion of all villages and free LPG for
people below the poverty line. In addi-
tion, a few BJP states have amended
labour and land acquisition laws. It’s
hard to recall anything comparable
under UPA-2. But Modi also gave us
demonetisation, which is widely
regarded as a disaster and set back
growth by around 2 per cent. There
was no similar self-inflicted goal
you have to go back to the
Emergency for a comparison.
Next is the way important institu-
tions have been handled. NDA-2 has
been cavalier in its treatment of state
governments (Uttarakhand and
Arunachal) and the Supreme Court,
whilst it’s accused of politicising uni-
versities, the Election and Information
Commissions as well as organisations
like the Nehru Memorial Museum and
Library and the Indian Council of
Historical Research.
UPA was clearly better. It created
> LETTERS
Don’t jump to conclusions
Apropos your editorial, “Conflict of
interest” (August 24); I am glad that —
despite your conclusion “RBI should be
allowed to withdraw it’s nominees in
an RBI nominee, PSB boards may make
more mistakes” also has merit. I think,
extending this to “all public sector com-
panies” — as you have done — is not
correct. There is sound logic in the gov-
ernment thinking.
The matter is complex and needs
more detailed discussion.
Krishan Kalra Gurugram
Good move by Isro
This refers to, “85% material cost for
our rockets comes from industry” across the world and particularly in
(August 23). India’s success in sending developing countries that growth in
rockets into the space has been spec- GDP did not always ensure better living
tacular. Indian Space Research conditions for the masses. It said noth-
Organisation has come a long way from ing about the progress on the fronts of
carrying a rocket on a bicycle to launch- poverty and inequality. Paradoxically, it

O
ne of the central themes
in the Prime Minister’s
Independence Day speech
was the claim that India made better
progress under his NDA government
than under the previous UPA regime.
The PM spoke with oratorical pas-
sion. But is he correct? Or was this
braggadocio?
Let’s start with the economy. The
recently released back series GDP fig-
ures show that percentage growth
under UPA-1 (8.87) and UPA-2 (7.65)
was higher than the first four years of
NDA-2 (7.35). Twice during UPA years
growth crossed 10 per cent (2007-08
and 2010-11), making growth in the
UPA decade 8.12 per cent. Clearly, in
growth terms the UPA performed bet-
ter, if only fractionally when you com-
pare NDA-2 to UPA-2.
However, when you look at the
broader handling of the economy the
story is different. The average current
account balance under UPA-2 was —
3.3 per cent compared to just — 1.2
per cent so far under NDA-2. Similarly,
the average CPI inflation under UPA-
2 was 10.4 per cent but it’s been kept at
just 4.7 per cent by NDA-2. Finally, the
fiscal deficit in the last year of UPA-2
was 4.5 per cent. At the moment it’s
3.5 per cent.
You see a similar story when you
look at the reforms the two govern-
ments have undertaken. NDA-2 has
delivered GST, the Bankruptcy Code,
the Real Estate Regulation Act, the
under UPA.
A second issue is what’s happened
to corruption under NDA-2? Whilst
UPA was battered by 2G, Coalgate,
AgustaWestland, the Commonwealth
Games etc, there’s no major stain of
large scale corruption on the present
government. Though there are serious
questions regarding Rafale there’s no
money trail leave aside a smoking gun.
Now, if you’ve formed the impres-
sion that in terms of the economy and
corruption NDA-2 has scored better
than UPA-2 the opposite is true when
you look at the mood of the country
and, in particular, what’s happening
to dalits and muslims. Over the last
four years we’ve had ghar-wapsi,
love-jihad, Bharat Mata Ki Jai, ram-
paging gaurakshaks, child-kidnap-
ping lynchings and controversies
over namaz. Large numbers of mus-
lims and dalits have been alienated
and live in fear. Only a few would
deny this is an area where we’ve seen
serious deterioration.
The same is true of what’s hap-
pened to the media. Under NDA-2
there’s alleged self-censorship, sto-
ries of editors being sacked, minis-
ters and spokesmen boycotting
anchors and columnists asked to
avoid sensitive subjects. We may not
have irrefutable proof of govern-
mental involvement but there are
good reasons to believe this is hap-
pening at its behest. Nothing of the
sort happened under UPA. Indeed,
the Information Commission and
largely respected the Election
Commission. Its appointments to
statutory bodies may have been con-
troversial but did not undermine
them. However, its attitude to state
governments was equally cavalier
(Bihar) and the people it appointed to
governorships no better.
And then there’s Kashmir. Since
2014 terrorist incidents have
increased by 160 per cent, the number
of local Kashmiris joining terrorist
groups has doubled and the number
of active militants has gone up three-
fold. Today students and, more wor-
ryingly, young girls throw stones at
security forces to prevent them cap-
turing militants. These teenagers
show no fear for their lives. Things
were very different four years ago. The
deterioration is irrefutable.
Finally, whose handling of for-
eign affairs was better? NDA-2 may
have begun with great promise but
today we have problematic relations
with most neighbours and a lack of
clarity vis-à-vis the USA. The hori-
zon was brighter as the UPA decade
came to a close.
So, in overall terms, who has given
us better governance? It seems the
only area where Modi could have an
edge is the economy. On the other
hand, Manmohan Singh ran a more
democratic government, with greater
respect for our freedoms and better
protection for minorities.
PSBs” — you have graciously explained
both sides of the picture.
Consider the facts: (a) the recom-
mendations for the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) ‘to give up its seats on the
boards of banks’ have been made since
early 1990s; (b) these recommendations
have been the same irrespective of the
ruling party/coalition at the Centre; (c)
not a single committee so far has
opined to the contrary; (d) both the
present and the immediate past gover-
nor of the central bank have pro-active-
ly taken up the matter with the govern-
ment. It would appear that the
government should give in and allow
the RBI to do its bidding. The logic
“how can RBI be a part of both the deci-
sion-making process as well as super-
vision”, and the implied logic that “all
regulators should be asked to have their
nominees on the boards of each and
every public sector company they
supervise” are convincing and further
strengthen the RBI’s case.
Having said that, I think we are total-
ly ignoring the other side of the coin.
First, the RBI nominees on the boards of
PSBs, that took wrong lending deci-
sions, are certainly guilty of not record-
ing their dissent to such decisions or
even preventing such decisions. As the
RBI’s nominee directors on the boards,
they probably even had veto powers.
To that extent, their presence on the
boards of banks should have been use-
ful for the RBI.
Second, the government’s presumed
refrain that “without the presence of
ing the Mars mission. Its plan to launch
a television channel to generate interest
among students will help in attracting
young talent. There are also plans to
send an Indian to space, apart from
Venus mission, and Mars Orbiter
Mission-II. An indigenous atomic clock
is also on the cards. Engaging the indus-
try for future developments will only
create more job opportunities.
Deendayal M Lulla Mumbai
Improve living conditions
This refers to the editorial “Looking
beyond GDP” (August 25). The modern
concept of GDP was invented by Simon
Kuznets during the inter-war period to
measure the resources available to the
USA to assess its preparedness for
future war. Since then it somehow
became conventional to measure a
country’s progress on the basis of the
rate of increase in this metric.
Unfortunately, it was observed
> HAMBONE
was recorded that along with increase
in GDP, poverty and inequality too
increased. So the search for alternative
and better measure began that could
measure human well-being.
Some economists have attempted
to devise indices like Gross National
Happiness, Human Happiness Index,
Green National Product etc to account
for important aspects like environ-
mental sustainability and impact of
economic policies on human happi-
ness. It is high time India too stops
giving undue importance to GDP and
instead focus on improving
its ranking on indices reflecting
human development.
Ketan K Shah Ahmedabad
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BY MIKE FLANAGAN