Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit
Vietnam - 1
October 15, 2018

We are writing a report on U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ visit to Viet Nam
this week. We request your analytic input into the following questions:
Q1. What do you expect of Mattis’ second visit to Viet Nam this year?
ANSWER: Prior to his first visit to Vietnam, Secretary of Defense James Mattis said he
had come to listen. On his second visit he will give support to addressing war legacy
issues such as Agent Orange clean up in Bien Hoa and continued U.S. support to
Vietnam for UN peacekeeping in South Sudan. Mattis will sound out his counterpart,
Minister for National Defence General Ngo Xuan Lich, on future activities of practical
defence engagement. So far defence cooperation has involved “low hanging fruit”
such as search and rescue and peacekeeping.
One sensitive issue is likely to be discussed. The U.S. Congress passed legislation,
known as Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), to
sanction countries that procure arms and military equipment from Russian defence
companies. CAATSA lists specific Russian entities and these include established firms
that deal with Vietnam. Mattis has sought a waiver from Congress for both Vietnam
and India. No determination has been made. This issue also raises the question of
whether Vietnam is prepared to make substantial defence purchases from the
United States.
Q2. This is the second time Secretary Mattis will visit Viet Nam this year. Given the
current U.S. strategy to re-engage with the Indo–Pacific region and its conflict with
China, what are the implications for Viet Nam?
ANSWER: Secretary Mattis is following guidance in the U.S. National Security
Strategy and the U.S. National Defense Strategy to include Vietnam in a cooperative
defence network to deal with current challenges to regional security including
Chinese aggressive actions in the South China Sea. Mattis will also seek a
reaffirmation from General Lich that Vietnam will completely support the UN’s
regime of sanctions against North Korea.
Vietnam will come under increased pressure to step up defence cooperation with
the United States including more frequent naval port visits.
Q3. Tensions in the South China Sea are rising once again this year with increased
U.S. Navy and Airforce freedom of navigation operational patrols and overflights. Is.
Secretary Mattis’ visit part of a U.S. effort to confront China in this area?
 2

ANSWER: The recent speech by Vice President Mike Pence signaled a major shift in
U.S. policy to identify and treat China as an adversary. Secretary Mattis will seek to
develop ad hoc coalitions of regional states, including Vietnam, to push back against
China. Vietnam will now face a more confrontational environment between China
and the United States both globally and regionally.
Q4. Randall Schriver, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security
Affairs, made his third visit to Vietnam prior to Mattis’ trip. He stressed that
developing partners in the region is one of the United States’ main pillars in regional
strategy. What are the prospects for a Viet Nam–U.S. partnership?
ANSWER: In coming years Vietnam will assume increased responsibility for regional
affairs as it assumes the Chair of ASEAN in 2020 and globally when it is elected a
non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. This elevates the importance of
Vietnam as a security partner in U.S. eyes.
Assistant Secretary Schriver recently took take part in the annual Defence Policy
Dialogue with Deputy Minister of National Defence LT GEN Nguyen Chi Vinh in
Hanoi. Defence cooperation is a two-way street, and Schriver committed the United
States to assist Vietnam in addressing war legacy issues such as Agent Orange
contamination. Significantly, Secretary Mattis will visit Bien Hoa and meet with
General Lich. This addresses one of Vietnam’s major concerns.
At the same time Vietnam quietly cancelled over fifteen defence engagement
activities scheduled for 2019 involving army, navy and air force exchanges. This
decision likely was due to U.S. lobbying to buy American equipment at the expense
of Russia. Vietnam may have viewed this lobbying as pressure and interference in its
internal affairs. So far this development has been kept under wraps.
It is likely that whatever commitments Secretary Mattis makes, Vietnam will nurse
private concerns about whether he can deliver. Media reports coming out of
Washington suggest (yet again) that Mattis will leave office after the mid-term
elections in the United States. In a CBS 60 Minutes TV interview on October 14,
President Trump said of Mattis, “I think he’s sort of a Democrat, if you want to know
the truth.” Trump also stated, He may leave. I mean, at some point, everybody
leaves. Everybody. People leave. That’s Washington.”
Vietnam has always sought to maintain its independence and self-reliance in its
relations with the major powers. Stepping up defence cooperation with the United
States in sensitive areas will be difficult because of China’s pushback if Vietnam is
perceived as leaning to the United States.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit Vietnam - 1,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 15, 2018. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.