UNPRECEDENTED QBO

DISRUPTION IN 2015-
2016:
IMPLICATIONS FOR OZONE AND
TROPICAL WAVE ACTIVITIES
LINTANG KUSUMA |
G24140022
SUPERVISED
BY :
Sonni Setiawan, S.Si,
M.Si

ACKNOWLEDGMENT TO :

Dr. rer. nat Sandro W. Lubis M.Sc

(University of Chicago, USA)
 OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. GOALS
3. METHOD
4. RESULT AND
DISCUSSION
5. CONCLUSION
6. REFERENCES
 1.
INTRODUCTION

Anomalous Change on westerly wind propagation of

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

Brewer-Dobson Circulation shows the ozone transpor

Equatorial Waves contribute to create QBO wind
and as momentum source for each phase the stratosphere and its variability is induced by QB
(Alsepan 2014; Lubis et al 2016)
2
 2. GOALS
To analyze the impact of upward propagation
of QBO (2015-2016) on Ozone distribution
and Tropical Waves (Kelvin and Mixed-Rossby
Gravity) Activities

3
 3. DATA AND
METHOD
METHOD DATA
Data used in this research was MERRA-2
at 6N-6S of equatorial tape,
Space-Time Spectral Analysis on level range 100-10 hPa and
STSA used to analyze equatorial waves dispersion and its the period of January 2010 – June 2017
spectrum energy in frequency-wavenumber function.
Based on the results of STSA, a filter was carried out as a Variable Resolution
further analysis to determine the kinetic energy of each
tropical wave propagation as cross section of time and Zonal Wind -Monthly 1.5x1.5
height. -Daily 2.5x2.5
Meridional Wind -Daily 2.5x2.5
Total Ozone Budget Analysis Temperature -Monthly 1.5x1.5
-Daily 2.5x2.5
( ∂∂Ot ) =( ∂∂Ot ) +( ∂∂Ot ) +( ∂∂Ot ) +( ∂∂Ot ) +( ∂∂tO )
3

TOT
3

CHM
3

DYN
3

MST
3

TRB
3

ANA
Ozone Mass -Monthly 1.5x1.5
This method used to calculate the contribution of different Mixing Ratio -Daily 2.5x2.5
processes (dynamics or chemistry) to the total ozone change
assosiated during QBO. Ozone -Daily 2.5x2.5
Tendency

4
 4. RESULT AND
DISCUSSION
4.1 QBO-Westerly Upward
Propagation

- The anomalous upward propagation occurred

from ~30 – 15 hPa.
- The upward “displacement” of westerly QBO
began to develop in December 2015 until
Mid-April 2016. (Newman 2016).
- Easterly phase started to develop at 40 hPa

5
 ?
HOW THIS
UNPRECEDENTED QBO
AFFECT TROPICAL WAVES
ACTIVITIES ?
 4.2 Space-Time Spectral Analysis
Zonal Wind (U) Variable :
- Faster phase speed of Kelvin and
Mixed-Rossby Gravity by the higher
level
- Weaker Kelvin energy by the higher
level
- Stronger Mixed-Rossby Gravity
energy by the higher level

Uwind (70 hPa) Uwind (50 hPa) Uwind (10 hPa)

Meridional Wind (V) Variable :

- Slower phase speed of Mixed-
Rossby Gravity by the higher level
- Stronger Mixed-Rossby Gravity
energy by the higher level
- Kelvin Wave do not show
significant activities

Vwind (70 hPa) Vwind (50 hPa) Vwind (10 hPa)

6
 4.3 Height-Time Section of Waves Kinetic Energy
Zonal Wind

Kelvin waves show

stronger kinetic
energy

Height-Time Section (EPW vs QBO) Mixed-Rossby

Gravity show
stronger kinetic
energy

7
 4.3 Height-Time Section of Waves Kinetic Energy
Meridional Wind

Kelvin waves do
not show a
significant
activities

Mixed-Rossby
Gravity waves
show stronger
kinetic energy

8
 4.3 Height-Time Section of Waves Kinetic Energy
Temperature

Kelvin waves show

stronger kinetic
energy

Mixed-Rossby
Gravity waves
show stronger
kinetic energy

9
 ?
HOW THIS
UNPRECEDENTED QBO
AFFECT THE OZONE
DISTRIBUTION ?
 4.4 Relationship between QBO
and Ozone/Temperature
Relationship of Ozone Mass Mixing Ratio (O3) and QBO

The upward propagation of QBO is associated with

positive anomaly of Ozone, indicating an increase
of ozone concentration
Relationship of Temperature and QBO

The upward propagation of QBO is associated with

positive anomaly of Temperature, indicating an
increase of temperature (warming)

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 4.4 Relationship between QBO
and Ozone/Temperature

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 4.5 Ozone Tendencies
DOXDTTO
T
O3-
10
finite_dif
DOXDTDY
hPa N
DOXDTCH
M
DOXDTAN
A
O3-Anomaly
(Fill)

The increase of
ozone concentration
is driven by the
increase of
DOXDTANA
30 approximately 2 - 5
hPa
ppm

The increase of
ozone concentration
is driven by the
increase of
DOXDTDYN
approximately 0.1 -
0.4 ppm

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 4.5 Ozone Tendencies

- Total ozone tendency show an increase of ozone concentration, consistent with the result of
ozone associated with upward propagation of QBO.
- Dynamics processes (DOXDTDYN) show bias when upward propagation occured, this bias
corrected by analysis data of ozone tendency (DOXDTANA).

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 4.5 Ozone Tendencies

- Chemistry processes at lower stratosphere show the opposite behaviour than Dynamics,
consistent with the theory which is ozone at lower stratosphere controlled by dynamics
processes.
- Chemistry processes at upper stratosphere show bias, DOXDTANA corrected this bias

14
 5. CONCLUSION

● The unprecedented QBO affects upward propagation of tropical waves into the
stratosphere; the kinetics energy of Kelvin and MRG waves are stronger during
this period
●Upward propagation of westerly phase of QBO (2015-2016) also causes
positive anomaly of temperature, indicating an increase in temperature
(warming)
●Ozone variable also exhibits positive anomaly meaning that an increase in
ozone concentration is modulated by the unprecedented westerly of QBO wind
● The increase in ozone concentration at lower-stratosphere is consistent with
the increase in dynamical ozone transport, as expected from the theory

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 6. REFERENCES
Alsepan G, Setiawan S. 2014. Kuantifikasi Osilasi Kuasi Dua
Tahunan Stratosfer (QBO) Menggunakan Data ECMWF-interim
Reanalysis [Skripsi]. Bogor (ID): Institut Pertanian Bogor.
Lubis SW, Setiawan S. 2010. Analisis Gelombang Atmosfer
Ekuatorial Planeter (EPW) di Lapisan Tropopause dan Stratosfer
Bawah Indonesia Dengan Menggunakan Data NCEP/NCAR
Reanalysis I [Skripsi]. Bogor (ID): Institut Pertanian Bogor.
Lubis SW, Jacobi C. 2014. The modulating influence of convectively
coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) on the Variability of Tropical
Precipitation. Int. J. Climatol.
Lubis SW, Omrani NE, Matthes K, Wahl S. 2016. Impact of the
Antarctic Ozone Hole on the Vertical Coupling of the
Stratosphere–Mesosphere–Lower Thermosphere System. J.
Atmos. Sci. Vol. 73: 2509-2527
Newman PA, Coy L, Pawson S, Lait LR. 2016. The anomalous
change in the QBO in 2015-2016. Geophysical Research Letters.
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BIG THANKS :)
 HOW THIS
UNPRECEDENTED
DISRUPTION OCCURS
Annual Variability of QBO Strong El Nino Events in 2015-2016

Tendency for winds in subtropical

Stratospheric subtropical easterlies
Northern Hemisphere to become
were anomalously weak
more westerly

Allows more extratropical Rossby

wave flux to reach the equator
and break there

Causes the convergence of

Meridional flux of zonal momentum

These waves reversed the flow near

40 hPa without a substantial westerly
forcing to counteract them Barton and McCormack
(2017)