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ARCHIVES | 1989

By BILL KELLER and SPECIAL TO THE NEW YORK TIMES NOV. 1, 1989
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Eastern Europe has not been on the formal agenda of a Soviet-American summit
conference since World War II, but it will certainly be a major topic when George
Bush and Mikhail S. Gorbachev hold their shipboard summit meeting in
December.
There seems little doubt that the sweeping changes in Eastern Europe were a
catalyst for today's sudden announcement, and have come to dominate the East-
West agenda even though both sides have agreed in advance that there will be no
formal agenda when the two Presidents gather for an informal exchange of views.
What Mr. Gorbachev seems to want most of all - more, even, than the
political lift the Mediterranean encounter might give him at home - is reassurance
from Mr. Bush that the United States will not try to exploit the retrenchment of
Communism for some strategic advantage. Stunning Momentum in East
 Mr. Bush, in turn, will want to know that Mr. Gorbachev is sincere in
signaling that Moscow will let the changes in Eastern Europe go on without
interference.
Mr. Bush said today that his decision to meet the Soviet leader on an
informal basis, contrary to Washington's long preference for well-scripted
summit meetings, was driven in part by the stunning momentum of democratic
movements in Eastern Europe.
''What changed my mind on it was consultation with our allies, the rapidity of
change in Eastern Europe, the emergence of democracies in this hemisphere, and
this concept that I just didn't want to, in this time of dynamic change, miss
something,'' the President said. German Reunification Raised
Events in Eastern Europe have moved faster than anyone in Moscow or
Washington expected. They have included the rise of a Solidarity Government in
Poland, the transformation of the Hungarian Communist Party and sudden shifts
in East Germany that have brought the question of German reunification into the
open.
The new East German Communist leader, Egon Krenz, arrived in Moscow
today on his first foreign trip since he replaced Erich Honecker on Oct. 18.
More than anything else, East Germany, where throngs of demonstrators
have been demanding legalized opposition groups, free elections and an end to
censorship, has caught both superpowers unawares and increased the urgency of
a calming conversation.
''I don't think anybody is quite ready yet for the German question,'' said
Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security adviser, who is in Moscow as
part of an academic delegation conferring with the Soviet experts about Eastern
Europe.
''If reforms in East Germany take the shape of Hungary or Poland, then you
have to ask, what is the point of East Germany?'' he added. That raises the
prospect of East Germany's being absorbed into its western neighbor.
''I don't think they are ready for that,'' Mr. Brzezinski said. ''They see that
sort of unification as much too premature and destabilizing.'' Soviet officials and
American specialists say the Soviets are willing to see Eastern Europe move
toward democracy and free markets, toward demilitarization and possibly even
toward neutrality, as long as they do not see a threat to their own security.
'Finlandization Now O.K.'
 ''The Finlandization of Eastern Europe is now O.K. with the Soviet Union,
without any concessions by the West,'' said Charles Gati, a professor of political
science at Union College in Schenectady, N.Y., who is the leader of the American
academic group visiting Moscow.
''Finlandization'' is often used these days to refer to Soviet satellites' evolving
independent states, like Finland, that are mindful of Soviet security interests.
''All they ask of the West is to make sure it does not go beyond Finlandization
into anti-Sovietism,'' said Mr. Gati, who predicted that the two leaders would
discuss Eastern Europe in December.
For Mr. Gorbachev, summitry has been a way of creating an international
calm that allows him to focus on his pressing domestic crises.
Ideally the Kremlin would like to see Western intentions reflected in concrete
progress toward arms agreements, including both cuts in nuclear arsenals and
reductions of conventional forces in Europe. Warsaw Pact Restructuring Seen
Georgi K. Shakhnazarov, a close aide to Mr. Gorbachev who has specialized
in Eastern European affairs, said in an interview today that Moscow was prepared
for a ''restructuring'' of the Warsaw Pact, including the eventual withdrawal of
Soviet troops from Poland and Hungary and guarantees that the alliance will not
interfere in internal affairs of its members.
But he said this should be a mutual withdrawal negotiated with the West,
rather than a Soviet retreat from the territory of its allies.
''The troops will be withdrawn, but it will be done within the framework of
the all-European process,'' he said. ''From the standpoint of mutual confidence
and stability, it would be much better for everyone if it happens on the basis of
common consent, with participation of both alliances.''
Aside from arms control, Mr. Gorbachev may also want to clarify the motives
behind Western economic packages aimed at Poland and Hungary, and to appeal
for lowering of economic barriers between East and West.
Mr. Gorbachev will find the creeping Westernization of his allies somewhat
easier to sell at home if he can argue that it may bring economic benefits here,
such as loosening American restrictions on sale of technology and on Soviet
participation in international trade and economic organizations. Profits From the
Imagery
Even if the shipboard meeting does not produce tangible agreements, Mr.
Gorbachev can expect to profit from the atmospherics. The comforting imagery of
the two men using warships for a friendly get-together, the language and gestures
 of mutual understanding, may make the helter-skelter transformations in Eastern
Europe seem more manageable.
Mr. Bush has already demonstrated by his cautious diplomacy during visits
to Poland and Hungary that he is sensitive to the Kremlin's feelings about Eastern
Europe.
Mr. Gati, who has worked as a State Department consultant on Eastern
Europe, said it was in the American interest, too, to continue this policy of
reassurance. Otherwise, Mr. Gorbachev's easygoing policy might face a challenge
from hard-liners here.
''It's not in our own interest now to rub it in,'' he said. ''Russia is retrenching,
but we don't want it to happen so fast as to produce a counter-reaction here.''
A version of this an analysis; news analysis appears in print on November 1, 1989, on Page A00001
of the National edition with the headline: BUSH WILL MEET GORBACHEV TO GET 'BETTER
ACQUAINTED' IN TALKS AT SEA NEXT MONTH; East Europe as Catalyst.

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