Ecological Engineering 116 (2018) 1–6

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Ecological Engineering
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecoleng

Short communication

A land use suitability model for rainfed farming by Multi-criteria Decision- T

making Analysis (MCDA) and Geographic Information System (GIS)
⁎
Hossein Kazemia, , Halil Akincib
a
Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Plant Production, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources (GUASNR), PO Box 49138-15739, Gorgan,
Iran
b
Department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Artvin Coruh University, 08100 Artvin, Turkey

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This study was carried out to analyze the land use suitability of Golestan Province, located in the northeast of
Environmental variables Iran, for rainfed farming performance using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Multi-criteria Decision-
Iran making Analysis (MCDA) in 2016. First, thematic maps of several environmental variables including soil, climate
Land suitability and topographic variables were obtained. After preparing the raster layers, the environmental requirements of
Rainfed farming
rainfed farming were identified from a comprehensive literature review and asking local experts’ opinions; then
they were classified according to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN) requirements. In the next
step, AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)-acquired weights were assigned to the criteria. Then, digital layers were
overlaid using Weighted Overlay Analysis (WOA) in ArcGIS. According to the results of land suitability analysis,
development of rainfed farming is possible for up to 56 percent of the current land of Golestan Province (about
396,550.5 ha) in the southern and central areas as a long belt from east to west. The results showed that some
climatic variables such as temperature, annual rainfall, and sunshine hours were not limiting factors for rainfed
farming in this region. However, other environmental variables such as salinity, organic matter, soil erosion, soil
texture classes, and the autumn, spring, May and June rainfalls were identified as limiting factors for rainfed
farming performance in the northern and northeastern regions of Golestan Province. We also found that slope
was a limiting cause in the southern part of this province. Generally, the use of specific management practices
such as increasing soil organic matter, saline reduction of lands, conservation tillage, and supplementary irri-
gation canimprove the quality class of low capability lands to higher suitability classes and increase the quality
of environmental resources.

1. Introduction
Around the world, rainfall and temperature are the two main factors
that influence crop productivity in arid and semi-arid areas. In Iran,
dryland farming areas are mostly limited by low and variable rainfall
(Nassiri et al., 2006). It is predicted that the plant growth period in Iran
would decrease significantly and cereal production would decrease by
5–40% under rainfed agriculture by 2080 (Rosenzweig and Parry,
1994). Therefore, agricultural land use planning is required to support
sustainable agricultural production in Iran.
In 1996 the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defined land-
use planning as the systematic assessment of land and water potential,
land-use alternatives, and socio-economic conditions in order to adopt
the best land-use options (FAO, 1996). A prerequisite of land use
planning is land suitability assessment (Akinci et al., 2013). For this
assessment, the most suitable land use type is determined through land
suitability analyses that consider land properties and user needs
(Akbulak, 2010; Amiri and Shariff, 2012). A land-use suitability ana-
lysis for a particular use is a complex process that may include bio-
physical, socio-economic, and technical aspects (Silva et al., 2014).
Basically, the determination of suitable land uses in each region for the
optimum use of basic resources while preventing their destruction, can
be an effective step towards sustainable development (Makhdoum,
2011) because, land use without the identification of differences in
ecological and environmental potentials leads to adverse results such as
erosion, desertification, pollution and environmental degradation. The
principal purpose of agriculture land suitability is to predict the po-
tential and limitation of land for crop production (Pan and Pan, 2012).
There are two important aspects: first, the potential suitability of the
land for a specific use, and, second, management practices that in-
tegrate various factors such as agro-ecological aptitude, environmental
impact, hydro-climate conditions, and socio-economic constraints

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: hkazemi@gau.ac.ir (H. Kazemi), hakinci@artvin.edu.tr (H. Akinci).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2018.02.021
Received 28 September 2017; Received in revised form 12 February 2018; Accepted 24 February 2018
0925-8574/ © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
H. Kazemi, H. Akinci
(Zabihiet al., 2015).
Agricultural land suitability analysis requires an efficient decision
support system to analyze and interpret the related ecological, en-
vironmental and spatial information. GIS and spatial analysis tools and
techniques are combined with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
methods for delivering a better spatial decision by integrating multiple
criteria from various spatial data sources. GIS-based MCDA (GIS-
MCDA) is a class of spatial decision support systems (SDSS), also de-
fined as an interactive, computer-based system, designed to help deci-
sion makers achieve higher effectiveness while solving a spatial deci-
sion problem (Malczewski, 2006; Yalew et al., 2016).
GIS-based MCDA is commonly used in agricultural land suitability
analyses. For example, a web-based framework (AgriSuit) that in-
tegrates various global data from different sources for multi-criteria
based agricultural land suitability assessment based on the Google
Earth Engine (GEE) platform was developed and presented by Yalew
et al. (2016). In another study, a GIS-based method was used by Liu
et al. (2006) to assess land suitability in the Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi
Province of China through simultaneous consideration of physical fea-
tures and current land use. Based on the principals of hierarchy analysis
and fuzzy mathematics, and the technique of GIS, a comprehensive
evaluation of tobacco ecology suitability was carried out by Chenet al.
(2010) in the Henan, China, tobacco planting regions. In Iran, Kazemi
et al. (2016) and Maleki et al. (2017) developed a land evaluation
model for faba bean and saffron cultivation, respectively, using GIS and
MCDA in Golestan Province.
One of the most important areas for crop production in Iran is
Golestan Province. According to statistical information, the cropping
areas of this province were 699,135 ha in 2013, and about 364,300 and
334,834 ha were allocated to irrigated and dryland farming systems,
respectively. Based on that, the cultivated areas of cereal were
507,510 ha, and of that, about 228,525 ha were under irrigation crop-
ping and 278,985 ha were cultivated under rainfed farming, especially
wheat and barley (Jihad-e-Agricultural Organization of Golestan
Province, 2013). In consideration of an extensive rainfed farming area
in Golestan Province, there are variations in the crop yields of rainfed
farming in some years and some areas of this province because the
agroecological potential of this region was not identified in terms of
rainfed farming performance according to the characteristics and en-
vironmental variables. The objective of the present study is a land
suitability analysis for rainfed farming in GIS by the evaluation of en-
vironmental variables using MCDA in the agricultural lands of Golestan
Province. Accordingly, farmers can improve their production in this
district. In addition, this research provides information at a local level
that can use by farmers to select cropping patterns in accordance with
suitability analysis.
2. Material and methods
2.1. Study area
This study concentrated on the main rainfed areas of crops pro-
duction in GolestanProvince, in the northeast of Iran (Fig. 1). The total
study area covers approximately 20,033 km2. The area coordinates
ranges from 36° 44′ and 38° 5′ N latitudes and 53° 51′ and 56° 14′ E
longitudes. The eastern extension of the Alborz Mountains Range sur-
rounds the coastal plains of the Caspian Sea as a long, high wall, thus,
all over the province, the land slope decreases from the southern and
eastern mountains towards sea. According to DeMartonne’s advanced
climate classification system, the province contains five different cli-
mates: semi-arid on the coast, center and northeast; Mediterranean in
the center; humid in the sub-south; semi humid in the south; and arid-
desert in the north (Kazemi et al.2015). Wheat, barley, soybean, rice,
cotton, canola, and legumes are the major crops grown in this province.
2
Ecological Engineering 116 (2018) 1–6
2.2. Data collection and analysis
To determine the land in the study area that is suitable for rainfed
farming, some soil parameters, climatic data, topographic data, and
land use/land cover data were used. The parameters used within the
scope of the study are explained in detail in the following subdivisions.
The land use/land cover data and the political boundary map of the
study area were obtainedfrom the GolestanProvince government. The
land use/land cover data of the province was used to extract layers of
the non–planting regions, including bare lands, industrial and re-
sidential areas, water bodies, and impervious lands. Therefore, the final
layer included agricultural land use. This layer is presented in Fig. 1.
The properties of soil samples including organic matter, pH, EC, and
texture classes and also erosion risk map were obtained from the
agricultural and natural resources research center of Golestan Province.
Soil samples were randomly taken from 700 locations in May 2010.
Samples were taken at depths of 0–30 cm and air-dried to remove
stones and coarse crop residues. In this research, the spatial distribution
of soil characteristics on the agricultural lands of the province were
evaluated using different geostatistical and interpolation methods. Also,
the erosion map was scanned and converted to a ESRI Shapefile format
by georeferencing and editing tools in ArcGIS software.
The meteorological data were from the state meteorological orga-
nization, including the temperature, rainfall, and sunshine hours of
1995–2016 in 75 meteorological stations of Golestan Province (Fig. 1).
In this study, three interpolation methods including ordinary Kriging,
inverse distance weighted, and radial basis functions were involved in
providing the raster-based spatial distribution of climatic parameters.
In this study, annual, spring, autumn, November, December, May and
June rainfalls; maximum, minimum, and mean annual temperatures;
optimum temperatures for germination, heading and grain filling
stages; and sunshine hours were considered as climatic factors affecting
rainfed land suitability. Some layers of the climatic parameters for the
study area are presented in Fig. 2.
The digital elevation model (DEM) dataset with a 90 × 90 m re-
solution of the study area was obtainedfrom the agricultural and nat-
ural resources research center of Golestan Province. Also, some topo-
graphic layers such as slope and elevation were generated from the
DEM by surface analysis functions in ArcGIS 10.3 software.
2.3. Multi-criteria Decision-making Analysis (MCDA)
The AHP, which was developed by Saaty (1980), is a multi-criteria
decision-making approach where factors are arranged in hierarchical
structure. As stated by Tuzmen and Sipahi (2011), AHP is very suitable
to solve problems where the decision criteria can be organized in a
hierarchical way into sub-criteria. In this study, we have dealt with the
problem in a hierarchical structure consisting of the “objective, criteria
and alternative” triple. The objective was a rainfed land use suitability
analysis in Golestan Province, and the criteria included climatic, soil,
and topographic properties. As requirement of the AHP, the criteria
used in this study are independent of the alternatives. According to the
Saaty and Özdemir (2005), many decision problems cannot be struc-
tured hierarchically because they involve the interaction and depen-
dence of higher level elements in a hierarchy on lower level elements.
In our study, there is no interaction and dependence between the higher
level and lower level elements in the hierarchy. On the other hand, in
accordance with the nature of the problem, the interdependence be-
tween some sub-criteria have been ignored. For example, inter-
dependence between rainfall and temperature can be important to ac-
curate analysis and simulation of the joint distribution of rainfall and
temperature (Cong and Brady, 2012) but not for agricultural land
suitability assessment. Because, rainfall and temperature are important
climatic parameters for agricultural production and are critical de-
terminants for crop yield, especially in the context of rainfed farming.
Similarly, parameters like erosion and slope are independent variables
H. Kazemi, H. Akinci Ecological Engineering 116 (2018) 1–6

Fig. 1. Locations of Golestan Province(green area) in Iran, meteorological stations and studied agricultural lands in Golestan Province.

Fig. 2. Two layers of the study area in Golestan province, Iran a: autumn rainfall, b: spring rainfall.

3
H. Kazemi, H. Akinci
because the relationship between erosion and slope depends on the
vegetation cover. Even if the slope degree is high, the erosion level will
be low if there is vegetation in the field. Therefore, it is preferred to use
the AHP method in this study because the problem to be solved in the
study is handled with hierarchical structure instead of network struc-
ture, and there are no dependencies between the criteria used in the
study. Solving a problem using AHP is carried out using the weights or
priorities of the criteria subjected to pairwise comparison (Akinci et al.,
2013). Weights or priorities are determined by normalizing the pair-
wise comparison matrix in Expert Choice software (ver. 2001). In this
research, 25 local experts in Golestan Province have used their ex-
perience to generate weights for rainfed land suitability. The factors
were ranked according to Saaty (1980) underlying scale with values
one to nine by discussion with local specialists. The parameter that is
used to check the accuracy of the comparisons is called the Consistency
Ratio (CR). This ratio is a measure of low variation allowed and must
be < 10% (Saaty, 1980; Duc, 2006).
2.4. Model description: Rainfed land use suitability
In order to determine rainfed land suitability, a model was con-
structed to match the environmental requirements of rainfed farming
with the land characteristics of Golestan Province. First, the environ-
mental requirements for rainfed farming were identified from a com-
prehensive literature review and asking local experts’ opinions, and
then they were classified according to FAO. In ArcGIS software, all the
spatial data were converted into raster layers with90 m resolution and
georeferred to the UTM (WGS-84) coordinate system. In the next step,
AHP-acquired weights were assigned to the criteria. Then, parameter
weights and sub-parameter scores were appointed to the related layers
in the ArcGIS, and raster maps of 21 parameters were overlaid using
Weighted Overlay Analysis (WOA) in raster calculator tools. Finally, a
rainfed land suitability map was generated and divided into five classes
of equal ranges according to the land suitability classification of FAO
(1976) including highly suitable (S1), moderately suitable (S2), mar-
ginally suitable (S3), currently unsuitable (NS1), and permanently un-
suitable (NS2).
3. Results and discussion
3.1. AHP results
The results of AHP analysis demonstrate that climate conditions
play a major role in rainfed farming expansion. According to experts’
opinions, a higher weight was assigned to rainfall than to other climatic
sub-criteria. Also, among the rainfall criteria, May rainfall (0.273) and
annual rainfall (0.056) had the highest and lowest weight, respectively.
In this regard, Srinivasarao, et al. (2013) reported that amount and
distribution of rainfall during critical growth stages was more im-
portant to agronomic yield than total and seasonal rainfall. It should be
noted that among the soil criteria, EC (0.387) and organic matter
(0.241) play major roles in the delineation of suitable areas for rainfed
farming. Based on the results, final weights of 0.144 and 0.099 were
assigned to temperature and sunshine hours respectively in relation to
rainfed farming. Among the temperature criteria, optimum temperature
for the germination stage (0.301) and mean temperature (0.061) had
the highest and lowest weight, respectively.
3.2. Land suitability
Suitable regions for rainfed farming were identified based on major
environmental factors, and an optimum suitability map was obtained
by overlaying 21 raster layers. Fig. 3 presents the final map of land
suitability in Golestan Province. It was determined that, while 13.88%
of the study area is permanently unsuitable for agricultural production,
18.23% is currently unsuitable, 12.68% is marginally suitable, 20.96%
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Ecological Engineering 116 (2018) 1–6
is moderately suitable, and 34.25% is highly suitable (Table 1). This
map will be of value for future rainfed farming planning decisions and
could lead to reduction in rainfed farming expansion into high-risk
zones. The classes of rainfed land suitability are explained in detail in
the following subdivisions.
3.2.1. Highly suitable zone (S1)
The highly suitable zone involved all the southern areas of Golestan
Province(Fig. 3). These areas had suitable properties such as low slope
and elevation; sufficient rates of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfalls;
and optimum temperatures in the phenological stages of crops under
rainfed farming. Also, this class had low EC and high organic matter.
According to the recorded data, sunshine hours in this area are not
restrictive for cereal autumn crops. Also, results showed that there was
no soil erosion risk in thiszone.
The rainfed land suitability model performance indicated that 34.25
percent of the surveyed area was located in zone S1 (246,008.54 ha).
This area can have a high potential production (80–100 percent) for
rainfed farming (Ghafari, et al., 2000).
3.2.2. Moderately suitable (S2) zone
Moderately suitable regions were identified as sites that are mod-
erate advantageous for the performance of rainfed farming. These areas
covered an area of 150,542 ha, which represented 20.96% of the total
evaluated area (Table 1). Basically, moderately suitable zone is defined
by annual rainfall of 250–300 mm, elevation levels between 1000and
2000 m, slope 4–8%, soil pH range of5.5–6.5 and 8–8.5, EC 4-8dS m−1,
and organic matter range of 2–3%. It was found that the moderately
suitable class (S2) was located from west to east and in southeast Go-
lestan Province (Fig. 3). Our results, based on long-term climate data,
showed that rainfed farming of cereal crops are not faced by limiting
temperatures during the growing season.
3.2.3. Marginally suitable (S3) zone
This class was identified as the boundary between suitable zones
and unsuitable zones (Fig. 3). This marginal class consisted of a
91,089.71 ha area that covered about 12.68% of the studied area
(Table 3). These regions were characterized by slope 8–12 percent,
elevation 300–2000 m, annual rainfall 250–200 mm, autumn rainfall
80–60 mm, spring rainfall 100–80 mm, EC8-12 dS m−1, and moderate
soil erosion risk. In these areas, the cultivation of rainfed wheat will
face high risk such as drought and salinity, but some cereal crops such
as barley and hull-less barley are recommended because of the high
resistance of these crops to dry conditions and a low quality of en-
vironmental resources. In general, agronomical management plays an
important role in increasing or reducing the quality and quantity of this
class to other classes. By applying management methods such as soil
salinity improvement and the increasing of soil fertility in this area,
barley production can play an outstanding role in improving this class
to a higher class.
3.2.4. Currently unsuitable (NS1) and permanently unsuitable (NS2) zones
The north and northwest areas, as well as parts of the northeast of
Golestan Province, were identified as a currently unsuitable (NS1) class
(Fig. 3). In these areas, dryland farming is not possible with the current
state of the environmental resources. Crop production in the dryland
farming areas of the northern regions is constrained by low and variable
rainfall. The results showed that some climatic variables such as annual
rainfall < 200 mm, autumn rainfall < 60 mm, and spring rainfall <
80 mm were limiting factors in these regions. From a climatic view-
point, rainfall and temperature are two main factors that influence crop
productivity in arid and semi-arid areas, and these two variables are the
principal weather variables that determine the variability of crop yield
in Iran. The variability in these variables under rainfed farming was
studied by Nassiri et al. (2006), Wang et al. (2015), and Kheiri et al.
(2017). Nassiri et al. (2006) predicted the impact of climate change on
H. Kazemi, H. Akinci Ecological Engineering 116 (2018) 1–6

Fig. 3. Land suitability map for rainfed farming in Golestan Province, Iran.

Table 1 the Artvin City in Turkey were the high degree of erosion, inadequate
The distribution of land suitability degree for rainfed farming in Golestan Province, Iran. soil depth, and high slope.
From a soil properties viewpoint, low organic matter content is a
Suitability degree Area (ha) Zone area/total agricultural lands
area (%)
major challenge in the north and northeast of Golestan Province.
Basically, amain challenge for farmers and researchers in Iran is to
Highly suitable (S1) 246008.54 34.25 sustain a sustainable farming system for the long term, which requires
Moderately suitable (S2) 150542.00 20.96 the continued addition of organic matter. Various studies around the
Marginally suitable (S3) 91089.71 12.68
Currently unsuitable (NS1) 130956.94 18.23
world have shown that cropping systems, fertilization, the addition of
Permanently unsuitable 99724.55 13.88 farmyard manure, integrated nutrient management practices, and per-
(NS2) ennial grass-legume pastures are effective in increasing soil quality,
particularly organic matter (Van-Eekeren et al., 2008, Bellet al., 2012,
Nasrollahi et al., 2017).
rainfed wheat production in Iran. Their results showed that average
yield reductions will be 18 and 24% for 2025 and 2050, respectively.
These yield reductions are related to a rainfall deficit (8.3–17.7%) and a 4. Conclusion
shortening of the wheat growth period (8–36 day). In other research in
Golestan Province, it was determined that the lack of suitable rain, soil This study provided useful information that can be used as a deci-
salinity, some soil physics properties, and poor soil fertility were the sion support tool in quantifying the implication of management policies
most serious problems influencing yield and quality of wheat (Kazemi in Golestan Province and other similar regions. According to the results
et al. 2015). of our land suitability analysis model, the development of rainfed
In the permanently unsuitable (NS2) zone, variables such as slope; farming is possible up to 56 percent of the current land of Golestan
salinity; organic matter; soil erosion; soil texture classes; and the au- Province in the southern and central areas as a long belt from east to
tumn, spring, May, and June rainfalls were identified as limiting factors west. However, about 33 percent of the lands in northern and north-
for rainfed farming performance in the northern and northeastern re- eastern areas of the province had environmental restrictions such as
gions of Golestan Province. From a geomorphological viewpoint, slope organic matter, salinity, soil texture, the autumn, spring, May and June
in Golestan Province varies, decreasing from the south to the north. rainfalls that made the rainfed farming of autumn cereals impossible.
Slope plays a significant role in the land degradation phenomenon that The use of specific management practices such as increasing soil or-
affects the Golestan Province. The results revealed that in the east and ganic matter by farmyard manure, mulching, green manure and cover
southeast parts of Golestan, soil erosion acts as a limiting factor for the crops cultivation, saline reduce of lands, applying methods of con-
cultivation of rainfed crops. Generally, erosion is a problem that pro- servation tillage and supplementary irrigation can improve the quality
duces an important impact on the landscape, especially in agricultural class of low capability lands to higher suitability classes and increase
areas (Silva et al., 2014). According to Akinci et al. (2013) and Akinci the quality of environmental resources. Therefore, determination of
et al. (2017), the main limiting features for agricultural production in overall land suitability for a particular agricultural land use requires
consideration of many criteria. Thus, we recommend similar studies

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H. Kazemi, H. Akinci Ecological Engineering 116 (2018) 1–6

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