CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, November 2017

Confidence1: 44.1
October: 43.4; September: 45.4; August: 50.7; July: 59.7; June: 60.0, May:
66.6

Current conditions: 59.7

October: 59.1; September: 63.9; August: 68.6; July: 75.0; June: 76.2; May: 83.8

Expectations: 36.3
October: 35.5; September: 36.1; August: 41.8; July: 52.0; June: 51.8; May: 57.9

90.0

80.0

70.0

60.0

50.0

40.0
Current conditions
30.0
Expectations
20.0
Confidence
10.0

0.0
May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17

1
100 – full confidence, 0 – no confidence, 50 - neutral

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4.8000
EURRON in 6M (average)
4.7000
EURRON in 12M (average)
4.6000 End of month

4.5000

4.4000

4.3000

4.2000

4.1000
Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

4.00%
Inflation expected in 12 Months (average)
3.00% Actual inflation rate

2.00%

1.00%

0.00%

-1.00%

-2.00%

-3.00%

-4.00%

2
1. How do you consider current business conditions in Romania?

Balance2: -10%
October: -7%; September: 16%; August: 20%; July: 36%; June: 44%; May: 64%

2. How do you consider the current employment situation in Romania?

Balance: 49%
September: 40%; August: 50%; July: 64%; June: 61%; May: 72%; April: 62%

3. What are your expectations for business conditions in Romania in the

next 12 months?

Balance: -68%
October: -73%; September: -70%; August: -60%; July: -25%; June: -22%; May: -23%

2
Difference between “Good” percentage points and “Bad” percentage points

3
4. What are your expectations for employment situation in Romania in the
next 12 months?

Balance: -39%
October: -34%; September: -35%; August: -31%; July: -5%; June: -2%; May: -5%

5. What are your expectation for personal income in Romanian economy

in the next 12 months?

Balance: 12%
October: 0%; September: 10%; August: 17%; July: 14%; June: 29%; May: 55%

6. What are your expectation for personal wealth (stock market, real estate
etc.) in Romanian economy in the next 12 months?

Balance: -15%
October: -9%; September: -16%; August: 9%; July: 32%; June: 10%; May: 31%

4
7. How do you estimate global macroeconomic conditions in the next 12
months?

Balance: 37%
October: 36%; September: 5%; August: 29%; July: 23%; June: 17%; May: 18%

8. How do you estimate the annual inflation rate in Romania in the next 12
months?

Balance: 100%
October: 98%; September: 95%; August: 97%; July: 93%; June: 95%; May: 100%

9. How do you estimate RON short-term interest rates (3-Month-

Interbank rate) in the next 12 months?

Balance: 100%
October: 93%; September: 98%; August: 94%; July: 80%; June: 90%; May: 100%

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10. How do you estimate RON medium-term interest rates (yields on 5-
Year bonds) in the next 12 months?

Balance: 98%
October: 91%; September: 100%; August: 88%; July: 77%; June: 95%; May: 100%

11. How do you estimate BET stock market index in Romania in the next
12 months?

Balance: -15%
October: -2%; September: -5%; August: -9%; July: 34%; June: 10%; May: 27%

12. How do you estimate RON compared with EURO in the next 12
months?

Balance: -90%
October: -86%; September: -72%; August: -74%; July: -68%; June: -56%; May: -64%

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13. How do you estimate Brent spot oil price in the next 12 months?

Balance: 31%
October: 16%; September: 15%; August: 9%; July: 7%; June: 20%; May: 24%

14. Do you expect at least one country to leave Eurozone in the next 12
months?

15. What is your EURRON exchange rate expectation in 6 months?

Average 4.6891
Median 4.6900
Min 4.6000
Max 4.8000

16. What is your EURRON exchange rate expectation in 12 months?

Average 4.7329
Median 4.7000
Min 4.6000
Max 5.0000

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17. What is your annual inflation expectation in 12 months (Dec. 2018/Dec. 2017)?

Average 3.38%
Median 3.50%
Min 2.00%
Max 4.50%
Standard deviation 0.55%

18. What is your ROBOR 3M interest rate expectation in 12 months?

Average 3.25%
Median 3.00%
Min 2.25%
Max 4.80%
Standard deviation 0.64%

19. What is your expectation for 5Y Romanian sovereign bond RON yields in 12
months?

Average 4.74%
Median 4.28%
Min 3.60%
Max 6.00%
Standard deviation 0.57%

Simplified yield curve RON

5.00%

4.50%

4.00%

3.50%

3.00%

2.50%

2.00%

1.50%

1.00%
3M 5Y

Actual Expected in 12 months