LRF Rainfall over Tamil Nadu during NE monsoon 2018

Fig.1: Anomaly of 850 hPa geo- potential height from 11th September to 10th October. High- low combination in not seen east of 050E, instead it is Low-High
combination. So, point ‘0’ can be given for LRF forecast.
 Fig: 2 Anomaly of 850 hPa vector wind from 11th Sept to 10th October 2018

Trough in easterly is seen above north of equator to Andhra coast between 080E-098E. This feature is likely to be observed during NE monsoon period. So,
moisture feeding over Tamil Nadu is observed through easterly wind for which point 1.0 can be given.
Fig.3: Anomaly of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from 11th September to 10th October 2018. SST along Tamil Nadu coast is warm to neutral, so 1.0, point can be
given. Total points for LRF come to 2.0. Thus rainfall over Tamil Nadu during NE monsoon 2018 is likely to be observed as normal (-19% to +19%, with an error of
± 4%). The forecast is based on research article entitled “Forecasting rainfall trend over Tamil Nadu during NE monsoon” published in IGU Journal 2018, which is
available on my website.