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Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment
TOXICOLOGY
NEWSLETTER
“All endeavors in life involve finite risk. Risk Assessment is a tool to rate the
degree of risk and prioritize Risk.”
October, 2018
A. Preamble
In the past, I have requested and encouraged any one of you to write an
article on toxicological aspects that are useful to our readers and submit it to
Mr. Alex Thomas (Editor), as I have no intention of writing all articles.
However, this time on Risk Assessment, I have solicited comments by my
good friend Dr. Shriharsh Bijargi who is a practicing Risk Assessor.
Shriharsh, significantly improved the writing and contributed substantial and
critical aspects to this newsletter. Hence, it is a joint article between the two
of us.
B. Introduction
Risk assessment is a process for proactively identifying and quantifying risks
in all settings. Addressing the risk is a part of risk mitigation. Risk
assessment is a scientific process of evaluating the adverse effects caused by
a substance, activity, lifestyle, or natural phenomenon.
In this newsletter, risk assessment refers to the process of estimating the type
and magnitude of risk to human health posed by exposure to chemical
substances.
Effective risk assessment and mitigation plan is based on a series of steps
which involves
Editor 1. Identifying risks
Alex Thomas 2. Assessing the extent of the risk
+91-974-545-0045
alexthomas.a@gmail.com 3. Determining whether action needs to be taken to reduce the risk,
and then acting
4. Evaluating the results of the action taken
D. Toxicity Assessment
Detection of toxicity requires a means to observe (or measure) specific
effects of exposures. Toxicology traditionally has focused on phenotypic
changes in an organism that result from exposure to chemical, physical, or
biologic agents. Such changes range from reversible effects such as transient
skin reactions to irreversible changes associated with chronic diseases, cancer
or even death. Typical whole-animal toxicology studies may range from
single-dose acute to chronic lifetime exposures, and they include assessments
of endpoints such as clinical signs of toxicity, body, and organ weight
changes, clinical chemistry, and histopathologic responses along with
assessment of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion properties
in-order to establish systemic exposure to the substance.
Toxicology studies generally use multiple doses that span the expected range
from where no effects would be observed until clinical or histopathologic
changes would be evident. The highest dose at which no overt toxicity occurs
in a 90-day study (the maximum tolerated dose), is generally used to establish
animal dosing levels for chronic assays that provide insight into potential
latent effects, including cancer and reproductive or developmental toxicity.
These studies constitute the mainstays of toxicologic practice.
In addition to animal studies, efforts to identify and understand the effects of
environmental chemicals, drugs, and other agents on human populations have
used epidemiologic studies to examine the relationship between a dose and
the response to exposures. In contrast to animal studies, in which exposures
are experimentally controlled, epidemiologic studies describe exposure with
an estimate of error, and they assess the relationship between exposure and
disease distribution inhuman populations. These studies operate under the
assumption that many years of chemical exposures or the simple passage of
time may be required before disease expression can be detected.
As medical science has progressed, there are novel biomarkers and imaging
systems used to assess disease or toxicity. For example, more sensitive
diagnostic and monitoring tools have been used to assess organ function,
including tools to detect altered heart rhythms, brain activity, and changes in
hormone levels as well as to analyze changes visible by electron microscopy.
Most notable, however, are the contributions of chemistry, molecular
biology, and genetics in detecting adverse effects as well as in identifying
cellular /molecular targets of toxicants. It is now possible to observe potential
adverse effects on molecules, subcellular structures, and organelles before
they manifest at the organismal level with the help of proteomics, genomics
and metabolomics techniques. This ability has enhanced etiologic
understanding of toxicity has made it possible to assess the relevance of
molecular changes to toxicity.
These molecular and cellular changes have been assessed and validated in
studies conducted on animals but have been applied to human populations
(“molecular epidemiology”) with some success. For example, our
understanding of gene-environment interactions has benefited greatly from
studies of lung, head, and neck cancer among tobacco users—studies that
examined differences in genes (polymorphisms) that are related to carcinogen
metabolism and DNA repair. Similarly, studies of UV sunlight exposure and
human differences in DNA repair genes have clarified gene-environment
interactions in skin cancer risk. Current technology now enables the role of
multiple genes of cell signaling pathways to be examined in human
population studies aimed at assessing the interplay between environmental
exposures and cancer risk.
Although current practice in toxicology continues to strongly emphasize
changes observable at the level of the whole organism as well as at the level
of the organ, the use of cellular and molecular endpoints sets the stage for
applying toxicogenomic technologies to a more robust examination of how
complex molecular and cellular systems contribute to the expression of
toxicity.
E. Quantification of Risk
The goal of chemical risk assessment is to have a full understanding of the
nature, magnitude, and probability of a potential adverse health or
environmental effect of a chemical. It considers both hazard and exposure.
Risk assessment forms the foundation of regulatory decisions for industrial
chemicals, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, food additives and food
contact substances in developed countries today.
Before proceeding to quantitative risk, let us learn some common
terminologies used in risk assessment:
i. Reference Dose (RfD): An estimate (with uncertainty spanning
perhaps an order of magnitude) of a daily oral or dermal exposure to
the human population (including sensitive subgroups) that is likely to
be without an appreciable risk of deleterious effects during a lifetime.
Its unit is usually mg/kg bw/day or mg/kg.
ii. Reference Concentration (RfC): An estimate (with uncertainty
spanning perhaps an order of magnitude) of a continuous inhalation
iii. Different analytical techniques are used in cancer and non-cancer risk
assessments to quantify risk. The result of a non-cancer risk
assessment can be the determination of a quantitative human
reference dose (RfD) for oral exposures or a reference concentration
(RfC) for inhalation exposures (both are generically referred to as a
“reference value”).
Uncertainty factors and modifying factors are used to address the differences
between the experimental data and the human situation, taking into account
the following uncertainties in the extrapolation procedure.
• Interspecies differences
• Intraspecies differences
departure to derive RfD in USA or DNEL is EU. The BMD approach is now
EPA’s preferred approach and is fast becoming the world’s standard for dose-
response analysis. The BMD approach has distinct advantages over the
NOAEL approach in that the modeled benchmark dose (BMD05 or BMD10)
reflects the shape of the dose-response curve and is less affected by the
choice of experimental concentrations. However, the BMD approach requires
a robust dataset and additional knowledge of statistical modelling.
In our next tutorial, we will give you an introduction to the definition of
benchmark dose and how to use EPA's benchmark dose software (BMDS) to
calculate BMD05 and BMD10, which will later be used as the POD to derive
RfD values.
In the above case, the DNEL used for risk characterization will be 0.1mg/kg
bw/day. If an adult (assuming weight is 60kgs) intakes 12mg of a chemical
substance per day, the estimated exposure (external dose per body weight)
will be 0.2mg/kg bw/day. Since the exposure estimate is greater than DNEL,
which will lead to a Risk Characterization Ratio (RCR)>1, the risk will not
be acceptable.
x. How to Obtain Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC)?
The Predicted No Effect Concentration or PNEC is the concentration of a
substance in an environment below which adverse effects will most likely not
occur during a long term or short term exposure. The PNEC needs to be
determined for each environmental compartment (water, soil, sediment, etc.).
The PNEC for each environment is estimated by dividing the dose descriptor
by the relevant assessment factor. Since dose descriptors are obtained from
laboratory tests involving a limited number of species, the assessment factor
is required to account for the uncertainties involved in the extrapolation to the
real ecosystems.
Where several dose descriptors are available for an environment, all the
possible PNECs will be derived. The lowest PNEC will later be used for risk
characterization.
xi. PNEC and Environmental Risk Assessment Example
Compartment Eco-toxicology Dose Descriptors Assessme PNEC
nt Factor value
Cramer
Class
Description TTC
(µg/day*)
I Substances of a simple chemical structure with 1,800 (30
known metabolic pathways and innocuous end µg/kg
products which suggest a low order of oral toxicity. bw/day)
II Substances that are intermediate. They possess 540 (9
structures that are less innocuous than those in Class 1 µg/kg
but they do not contain structural features that are bw/day)
suggestive of toxicity like those in Class 3.
III Substances with chemical structures that permit no 90 (1.5
strong initial impression of safety and may even µg/kg
suggest a significant toxicity. bw/day)
F. Conclusion
Risk assessment is a complex process which depends on the quality of
scientific information that is available. It is best for assessing acute risks
where effects appear soon after exposure occurs. Uncertainty becomes
greater, the longer the period between exposure and appearance of symptoms.
This is due to greatly increased uncertainties in exposure assessment and the
problems involved in using epidemiological or laboratory animal results in
such cases. In many circumstances, these uncertainties make it impossible to
come to any firm conclusions about risk. Thus, risk assessment is a process
which is often useful but cannot always provide the answers that are needed.
Risk assessment is a complex subject difficult to cover in one short
newsletter. This first issue of the newsletter on risk assessment is just to
familiarize newer members of the toxicology community who are more used
to only conducting guideline studies but never had the opportunity to learn or
experience the risk assessment task.
Questions
1. Define risk assessment?
2. The risk of a chemical depends on the 2 factors, ______and______
3. What are the steps involved in Human Health Risk Assessment?
4. Explain about Reference dose (RfD), Reference concentration (RfC),
Point of Departure (POD)?
5. Explain about Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC)?
6. Why is the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) approach useful
and necessary?
7. How to use POD to calculate RfD or RfC?
8. Write about Uncertainty factors and Modifying factors in risk
assessment?
9. When is modification of Point of Departure necessary?
10. Which POD is better: NOAEL or BMD?
11. How to obtain Derived No- Effect Level (DNEL)?
12. How to obtain Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC)?
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