Math 2 Probability Hand-in A

• Due 12 Noon on Tuesday 3rd Oct in cabinets outside MathsHub

• Each item will be marked under the EMRN rubric as described under
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weight given to work being well argued and presented.

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A.1

(i) In the “quiz show” example in the notes (§1.2.6 but reproduced also below), at what value
of r does it change from being correct to bet on s being less than r rather than greater?

(ii) Show that if the range is 1, ... , N (instead of 1, ... , 10) then in the limit as N tends to
infinity the change happens at about N/k where k is a constant that you should evaluate.

A.1 Solution Grading guidelines for question:

• For M, there should be a correct analysis of (i) and a derivation of (ii), all reasonably
well explained.

• For R, there should be a correct analysis of (i) and at least a step made with (ii) (the
normal first step would be identifying in terms of sums the expected return on both
guesses. There should also be at least some attempt to explain reasoning.

(i) For r = 7 the expected return of guessing “greater” is (8 + 9 + 10)/10 = 27/10 and
for “less” it is (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/10 = 21/10 and so guessing “greater” is better.
For r = 8 the expected return of guessing “greater” is (9 + 10)/10 = 19/10 and for
“less” it is (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7)/10 = 28/10 and so guessing “less” is better. So
the best strategy changes between r = 7 and r = 8.

(ii) In general, if the numbers range up to N and the first number is r then the expected gain
for guessing “less” is

r −1
1 X (1 + 2 + · · · + (r − 1)) (r − 1)r
j= = .
N j=1 N 2N

The expected gain from guessing “greater” is

N N r
1 X 1 X 1 X N(N + 1) r (r + 1)
j= j− j= − .
N j=r +1 N j=1 N j=1 2N 2N

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Math 2 Probability Hand-in A

Thus, omitting the common denominator of 2N , we should guess “greater” if

N(N + 1) − r (r + 1) > r (r − 1)

or equivalently
N(N + 1) > 2r 2 .
Dividing through by N 2 this becomes

1  r 2
1+ >2
N N
and so in the limit as N −→
√ ∞ we should
√ guess “greater” when (r /N)2 < 1/2 or
equivalently when r < N/ 2. So k = 2.

A.2

(i) I toss a coin n times where n is even. How likely am I to get exactly n/2 heads? Evaluate
this to at least 5 decimal places when n = 20.

(ii) An interesting question is how this behaves for large n. A useful tool is Stirling’s Formula
that gives a good approximation of n! for large n:
 n n √
n! ≈ 2πn.
e
Use Stirling’s formula to provide an approximation for the probability of getting n/2 heads
for large even n. (It should be quite a simple formula!) Check its accuracy for n = 20.

A.2 Solution Grading guidelines for question:

• For M, there should be a correct calculation of (i) and a derivation of (ii) with at most
minor errors, all reasonably well explained.

• For R, there should be a correct analysis of (i) and at least an attempt to approximate the
factorials with Stirling’s formula. There should also be at least some attempt to explain
reasoning.

(i) By the Binomial Theorem the probability is

 
n 1 n!
n
= .
n/2 2 ((n/2)!)2 2n
When n = 20 this becomes
20!
≈ 0.17620
10!2 220

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Math 2 Probability Hand-in A

(ii) We use Stirling’s formula,  n n √

n! ≈ 2πn.
e
Applying it also to n/2 we have
2
n n/2 √
  n n 1
2
((n/2)!) ≈ πn = πn.
2e e 2n
Combining, we obtain the approximate probability as
r
2
.
πn
Evaluating this in the case n = 20 we get 0.17841 which is pretty accurate!

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Math 2 Probability Hand-in A

Example from notes: Quiz Show In a quiz show a random integer r between 1 and 10
is generated. Another, independent such random number s will then be generated, but before
that happens, you are invited to guess whether s will be greater than or less than r . If you are
correct, then you win s pounds. If you lose (or if s = r ) then you win nothing. Which guess
should you make if r = 6?
The assumption is always that you are trying to maximise your expected gain. If you opt
for s being higher, then you win nothing if s ≤ 6 and win 7, 8, 9, 10 pounds when s takes those
values. Your expected gain is

P(s ≤ 6) × 0 + P(s = 7) × 7 + P(s = 8) × 8 + P(s = 9) × 9 + P(s = 10) × 10

1 1 1 1 34
= 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 = .
10 10 10 10 10
A similar calculation n the case of opting for s lower gives the expected gain as

1 1 1 1 1 15
1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5= .
10 10 10 10 10 10
So you should guess “high”: you win less often, but the larger wins more than compensate.

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