REPUBLIC OF KENYA

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT &FORESTRY

KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya
Telephone: 254 (0) 20 3867880-7, Fax: 254 (0) 20 3876955/3877373/3867888,
E-mail: director@meteo.go.ke, info@meteo.go.ke Website:http://www.meteo.go.ke

Ref. No. KMD/FCST/4-2018/MO/11 Date:31thOctober,2018

REVIEW OF THE WEATHER IN OCTOBER 2018 AND THE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2018

1. SUMMARY
Very heavy rainfall was recorded along the Coastal strip of the country towards the end of October. The
rainfall was associated with flash floods especially in Kwale and Mombasa Counties. Elsewhere, several
parts of the country experienced fairly wet conditions during the month. More than half of the
meteorological stations recorded monthly rainfall totals of more than 50mm that marked the onset of
the October-November-December (OND) 2018 short-rains season.The rainfall was highly enhanced
over the Coastal region with Mombasa meteorological station recording 249 percent of its monthly
Long-Term Mean (LTM).

November is normally the peak month for the short-rains season. The outlook for November 2018
indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience above average rainfall during the
month. Average rainfall is, however, expected over some parts of Northeastern and Southeastern
Kenya.

2. WEATHER REVIEW FOR OCTOBER 2018

The month of October marks the onset of the short rains in Kenya. In October 2018, the onset was
timely over most parts of the country. Several places started to experience wet weather conditions
from mid-October. The rainfall was characterized by heavy storms along the Coastal region where
Kinango Agriculture rainfall station and Mombasa Meteorological station recorded 222.0mm and
194.0mm on 25th October respectively. Elsewhere, more than half of the meteorological stations in
the country recorded monthly rainfall totals of above 50mm.However, stations like Mandera, Wajir,
Garissa in Northeastern Kenya; Nyahururu, Embu, Wilson, JKIA, Thika in the Highlands East of the Rift
Valley; Narok station in Southern Rift Valley;Makindu, Machakos in Southeastern Kenya recorded less
than 50mm of rainfall. Lodwar station recorded no rainfall at all while Garissa station recorded just
3.8mm.

The highest monthly rainfall total of 278.4mm (249% of the LTM) was recorded at Mombasa station.
Mtwapa, Kakamega, Kisumu, Kisii, Marsabit, Msabaha, Lamu and Malindi stations recorded 200.4mm
(166%), 190.4mm (114%), 165.4mm (163%), 145.7mm (81%), 134.5mm (126%), 133.9mm (144%),
111.9mm (205%) and 108.3mm (127%) respectively. Laikipia Airbase, Moyale, Kitale, Dagoretti Corner,
Kericho, Eldoret (Kapsoya), Meru, Nyeri, Eldoret Airport, Voi, Moi Airbase (Eastlleigh), Nakuru and
Embu stations recorded between 50 and 100mm. The rest of the stations recorded less than 50mm as
depicted in Figures 1a and 1b.

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3. EXPERIENCED IMPACTS
The heavy rainfall storms experienced along the Coastal strip were associated with flash floods
especially in Kwale and Mombasa Counties.

The timely onset of the OND 2018 seasonal rainfall impacted positively on theAgricultural and
Livestock sectors in various parts of the country. Farmers in most agricultural areas were able to plant
in good time (by the third week of October) following the good rainfall.

4. FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER 2018

November is normally the peak month for the short-rains season.The outlook for November 2018 is
mainly based on empirical statistical models developed from expected evolution of global Sea Surface
Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SST anomaly patterns
taken into account include the slightly warmer than average SSTs in the central to western Equatorial
Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coast) coupled with the cooler than average SSTs in the
eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia).This constitutes a slightly positive Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD) that is favorable for rainfall in the country. The slightly warmer than average SSTs in the
Eastern and Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean that indicates El Niño-like condition was also taken into
consideration.

The forecast indicates that several parts of the country are likely to experience enhanced rainfall
during the month of November. This will be more so over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake
Victoria Basin, Central Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Nairobi area as seen in Figure 2.

The specific outlook for individual areas is as follows:

The Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Kitale, Kericho, Nandi, Eldoret, Kakamega), Lake Basin (Kisumu,
Kisii, Busia), Central Rift Valley (Nakuru, Narok, Naivasha), Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Nyeri,
Muranga, Kiambu, Embu, Meru) and Nairobi area (Dagoretti, Wilson, Eastleigh), parts of Southeastern
Kenya (Machakos, Makindu, Voi, Taveta) are likely to receive near-normal to above-normal (generally
enhanced) rainfall.

Some parts of Northern Kenya (Isiolo, Garissa and Wajir), several parts of the Coastal Strip (Mombasa,
Kilifi, Lamu, Tana River) and some parts of Eastern Kenya (Kitui) are, however, likely to experience near-
average rainfall.

NB: A few rainfall storms are likely to occur during the month. These are expected to cause flash
floods in isolated areas.

5. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
The expected good rainfall performance during November 2018 will lead to various impacts as follows:
 Improved agricultural activities in several parts of the country and more so over the Western,
Central and Southeastern region. It is worth noting that the
 October-November-December is the major rainfall season for Southeastern region.
 Water levels in the hydroelectric power generating dams are expected to rise.This will maintain
the current capacity for hydroelectric power generation in the hydropower dams.
 Improved pasture for livestock over most pastoral areas of the country such as Northwestern,
Northeastern, Central and Southern Rift Valley and Southeastern Kenya.
 Improved vegetation cover over most parts of the country as a result of the enhanced rainfall.
People are encouraged to plant more trees in order to increase forest cover.
 Increased water resources in the catchment areas that will benefit urban centres such as
Nairobi, Nakuru, Mombasa, Garissa, Eldoret etc.
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  High likelihood of lightning strikes especially in Counties like Kisii, Kisumu, Kakamega and
Bungoma.
 Likelihood of flooding in prone areas such as Budalang’i and Kano plains as well as
landslides/mudslides in susceptible areas of Western, Central and Rift Valley
 Outbreak of diseases normally associated with excessive water such as malaria.
 Muddy and slippery conditions on various roads in the country. Some roads may be rendered
impassable.

N.B: This forecast should be used in conjunction with the daily 24-hour and the weekly forecasts issued
by this Department.

STELLA AURA, MBS

DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE OF KENYA WITH WMO

FIGURE 1B: OCTOBER 2018 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE FIGURE 2: NOVEMBER 2018 RAINFALL FORECAST
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