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Zeefreaks Blog
The Charts tell you even before any rumor or official disclosure is made and the best thing
about the Chart: It doesn't lie.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (PSEi) tracks the performance of the most
representative companies listed on the PSE. When this index is in a bearish cycle and treks
down, it means that players who control majority of the money in the market, are fearful.
And the thing with fear, as with greed, it's contagious. So expect most of the other stocks to
follow this sad cycle as most traders and investors sell their positions in exchange for cash.
Anything that doesn't follow the major trend and goes the opposite
way is an outlier.
A.
100MA below prices = Bull
100MA above prices = Bear
This is what market veterans call...
But not everyone gets to ride outliers. Majority even stay out of it because...
"Why buy a stock that is making a series of new 52-week highs when you can buy a stock
that just made a new all time low? Wouldn't that be better since that would translate to
bagger gains if it goes back to it's all time highs?"
-Nakamura San
Sounds familiar?
It's because Nakamura San is every amateur trader you know - who buys at "cheap" prices
para makamura but ends up ipits and nagmumura.
People fear what they don't understand. But let not fear cripple you to the path of
enlightenment. So the next time you see a stock making new 52 week breakouts during a
bear market, think very carefully before you ignore it.
As always, Caveat.
Of all the technical systems I've encountered, Trend Following [TF] has been the easiest to
learn and master. Why? Because unlike other trading setups that require multiple indicators
or tools, TF only require that you follow the lines. In the ZFT system we follow only 3 lines :
The 20, 50, and 100 Moving Averages.
I'm not claiming that other combinations of moving averages are inferior to ours, but most
variations we've tried are just too fast or too slow in reaction time when used in different
time frames here in the PH market. The 20-50-100 combination has been our most
balanced one.
Not many understand the simplicity yet effectiveness of this tool. And I guess it's human
nature - To have that unnecessary feeling of putting tremendous effort to something in
order to make the victory sweeter.
You Infidel.
But to those who have the right mindset, this tool can do wonders. So what are the
essentials of Trend Following?
Let's start!
Not many trend followers have trading templates. And by this, I mean different ways to
trade stocks under the TF category - because not all TF stocks are equal.
The primary element in trend following are the key positions of the Moving Averages [MAs].
One must first ask, "Which lines are showing bullishness? And are there any that are
bullshitting me?" All other factors for your upcoming trade should revolve here. Should you
For example, if two stocks were in AOTS and assuming that both can handle my intended
maximum trade volume, I'd put more volume on the one which has broken a higher level of
resistance since that would suggest a stronger trend. ATH over 52-week highs, 52-week
highs over 6-month breakouts, so on and so forth.
Many traders just love to anticipate movements before they happen. To buy before the
breakout and to sell before the breakdown. When a trader works to show off that he bought
at the lows and sold at the highs rather than show that he followed his trading plan and
system, that's his pride and ego talking. Because who can consistently get it right every
single time?
No one.
And what's the point if all you do is anticipate stock breakouts with your holy grail screeners
but don't trade them?
But plainly reacting on movements can be equally deadly. Imagine if you buy every
breakout without planning ahead, who knows what could happen if the tide suddenly turned
against you? Trust me when I say that you wouldn't want to be over committed on a trade,
experience a bull trap and have no cut loss strategy.
None.
So what if you didn't sell at the highs? Don't punish yourself for not being able to control the
uncontrollable. Instead, reward yourself for following your trading plan.
Always remember that there should always be balance in anticipation and reaction.
Variable Change
When following trends and you bought a stock at a relatively low price, don't be complacent
about your trailing stops. How many times have you had a good position mature into
wonderful paper profits only to get eaten a few days later just because you failed to adjust
your stops?
"Okay lang. Mababa naman kuha ko."
Many fall into this pit of carelessness just because they bought at the lows. I cannot stress
this enough, always account for variable change.
Post Selling Evaluation
Post trade evaluation and analysis gives you a step back and have a good look at the big
picture. It not only helps you see the flaws in your system and how you can improve on your
next trade, but also gives you that needed "space" to think and digest what you've learned
and become a better trader as far as mindset is concerned.
I remember a few years ago when I couldn't trade excellent stocks and super plays
because of a certain saying about gaps.
When I asked some good traders about certain setups that had gaps, some would always
give a spooked and special warning. "Wag mo nang e trade yan! Hala sige, babalikan GAP
nyan!" Which ultimately clouded my judgement.
A gap occurs when there's an intense buying or selling pressure on a stock, that the price
opens a few to several flucs away from it's previous closing price.
Now going back to the statement that all gaps will be filled. Many would say this with the
notion that the event will happen immediately or in the near future. But this is not ALWAYS
true.
Gaps being closed may happen but the question here is... when?
Assuming you didn't trade since late January of this year because of the gap that was
created during that time - imagine all the opportunity losses.
Assuming you bought COSCO back in 2013 because of the belief that gaps get filled -
Imagine your losses and how long you're ipit.
Gaps are simple events in our markets - if it doesn't get filled, it just means beastly forces
are about to appear on the direction of the gap.
So the next time you spot an unfilled gap, try not to complicate things. Trade what you see.
Unlike COL's EIP (Easy Investment Program) that tells you to buy X Worth of Y Stocks
Every month. The system's SSB or SSS (Strategic Sandbag Buying/Selling) and Pyramid
helps you time your entries and exit efficiently and effectively.
Let's say you allocate 10k of your earnings to stocks each month. You want to buy PXP
every month.
Month 1:
PXP Price =1
PXP Shares you buy = 10,000
Month 2:
PXP Price =2
PXP Shares you buy = 5,000
Month 3:
PXP Price =5
PXP Shares you buy = 2,000
By Month 3, you end up with 17k Shares of PXP with 1.76 as your Average Price. Pretty
neat huh?
In EIP, you buy on a set date without regard to the price or the event that took place.
The problem with this kind of 'strategy' is that there is no value given to the trend. What if
the trend was down? What habit and mindset will this create?
"Hurt me more!!!! Ram it down and we have a deal! Gusto ko ng maraming maraming
shares! Bodega pa!"
While this is good for investors with deep pockets and lots of time, It may not necessarily
hold true for the person who wants a "quick buck" after a few months of waiting.
I'm not saying EIP is bad. But if you use out of context, it will be.
I know I'm fictional, But trust me when I say that I've seen worse at this point, I will assume
that you've already read the
Let's proceed.
A. Equal Tranche
B. Pyramid or Inverse Pyramid
In Equal Tranche Sandbagging, if you have a Budget worth 100k, and you decide to do a
two-tranche, then you buy the first half on the first breakout, and the 2nd half on the next.
This is like EIP, the difference is, you buy on the breakout and not on a set date.
In Pyramid, the lower the price, the bigger the volume or budget so if you have a Budget
worth 100k. And you're a "sigurista" and decide to go for a four tranche buy, this is how you
will allocate your buys:
Example:
Chart as of 5/12/2015
Closing price at 5/13/2015
If you follow the pyramid type, your Average Price would most likely be found in the prices
between the 1st Breakout to the 3rd Breakout.
"HOOOOLD! Lalim ng Average ko. Run profits! Run!" But what If you employed a Single
Tranche Buy? And it just so happened that the price dropped to the previous support, which
is near your cutpoint? at this point, the trader would be like:
"#LMPI. Lapit na sa cut point ko! Sabi na nga ba eh dapat doon ako bumili."
And because you have used up your whole allocation for that stuck, sudden background
music plays : Bakit ngayon ka lang...
The inverse pyramid is usually done when selling. The higher the prices go, the bigger the
volume. Good technique for Day traders who set TPs.
Now why buy on breakout rather than at support? Because on breakouts, it means that the
uptrend is confirmed and more time is saved as opposed to buying on support and waiting
for the consolidation to finish and why do we give importance to this?
Because in Trading, your mental state and health is just as important as your portfolio. If
you trade when you're stressed and emotional, you are highly likely to lose. And when you
lose, you might end up in this vicious cycle I call...
And what goes on in the trader's mind during support testing and consolidation?
Yep. You're too tense that you look like you got stunned for 2 seconds by a storm bolt and
you don't know how to react.
Now as to when you will sell... I believe this old post will suffice.
A common misconception about trading the markets is that you always have to be on the
watch.
Prices trade and react within a certain range during consolidations. And depending on the
setup and kind of stock, this consolidation phase could take a few days to several months
or even years.
Here's the 1 year chart of ION for example. It has been on a long sideways movement after
its explosive 4 week rally.
If you bought the hype of the "Experts" and are still holding and watching the stock day by
day, you'd probably look like these fellas...
Timing is everything.
But let me enlighten you to the 3 steps that have helped me trade while on the go.
A. The kind of setup and play you're going for - where you determine if you're in it for the
short swings or the bigger waves and if the stock you plan to enter is volatile or not.
B. Entry price, cut loss levels and trailing stops - the very fundamentals of trading.
C. Time stops - where you sell your position if it doesn't move within a given time frame of
your trading bias. Nakapag move on na lahat, ikaw nalang hindi. #whogoat.
Many traders fail in this area. Having no regard to any of these elements render trades
incomplete and dangerous - a trip to hell if you may. One should also be prepared for every
scenario so you won't panic like sell short or buy late when momentum and volatility comes
in.
Now all you have to do is to set your trading alerts. I use a mobile
app for it (PSE Watch). I heard Investagrams also has this
feature. Thank you app developers for making our trading lives
easier!
From here, you have to determine your trigger points for the
stocks in your watch list. What is a trigger point you ask?
Okay for this blog post to have sense, here's an example of my recent trade while on the
go...
IMP
I was prepared to wait for a month and buy more shares using the GTC feature (buy order
valid for 60 days) while setting my trigger points at 14.4 - 16.0 range, which would alert me
if momentum has come in and 12.9 - 12.8 levels for me to Cut loss.
If the price doesn't touch any of these trigger points, I would not be notified. Ever. And to
emphasize on the beauty of this simple statement, just imagine those mornings when you
were woken up because breakfast was ready vs those mornings when you were woken up
and had to wait for your mother to finish cooking while sitting on the table.
So while still on vacation that Monday, I received a message notifying me that my triggers
were hit.
And since momentum has come, all I had to wait for was the
day's close before checking my port and planning my next
move.
Under normal circumstances, you could just use the Off-Hours Order feature to execute
your buying or selling for the next trading day.
If it didn't go for a ceiling, I could have opted to use the GTC feature for selling and set them
on and near IMP's resistance levels.
EZ. GG.
Additional Notes :
I seriously did not expect this to happen while on vacation. ZFTs should ask me when I'll
take my next vacation. Alam na.
Please spare me your messages. Don't be lazy and read this blog from cover to cover.
"Bodega"
Also known as "Warehousing." This is quite a popular term in FB and other social media.
And I have taken a liking to it. The popular belief on this system goes like this : "If you
believe in the company, Buy it. Buy it slowly until you have amassed a lovely position that
will bear you good gains somewhere in the future."
I believe this method can be effective if used in the right way, by the right person - Be it a
fundamentalist or a technician. But one should also be aware of the element of time when
warehousing. You wouldn't want to be accumulating something while losing golden
opportunities right? So today, we are going to talk about two groups of fictional characters,
The Technicians and the Funnymentalists, for us to visualize and understand more about
the bodega system.
Let's start with the Funnymentalist. These group of people believe in many truths, which
oftentimes results to a non-truth. The most common practice they employ is the combining
of the three Truths in the markets : Fundamentals, Technicals, and Speculation.
Observe.
This is an example of a funnymentalist's port snapshot with a little taste of his wisdom.
There has been no full disclosure of where he made his bodegas but we can only assume
the following :
"Why don't they buy when the uptrend is confirmed? Isn't it easier that way?"
Good question. I'm confused as well. But the thing is, Funnymentalists have Vision like no
other. They see things in different dimensions and will buy in every season. They see the
market's downtrend as golden opportunities to add to their positions. But why not? They are
Millionaires! If not Billionaires!
They could have bought on the shifting of the trend. But no. They like to have an
underdog's story of breaking even while others are profiting. Who knows how their minds
operate? Sometimes they practice cutting their losses and sometimes they don't.
Sometimes they have legal wives and sometimes they don't.
Funnymentalists don't mind holding for a long time because eventually, the universe will
align to their favor. This is their truth and their minds will forever remain a mystery.
"A 6-8 Figure Loss? That's nothing to me. BACAT (Buy Cut) 'Till you get it right! Do not
think! Be one with the Market."
They are people bound by strict rules and discipline. Raw data is their Truth. Trends are
what they follow. And if a trade goes against them, they immediately cut their losses.
Observe.
When the market shows signs of a favorable trend, Technicians do not hesitate to execute
the bodega system. For why fear a trend that is for you? I made a post before on Trend
following and Money Management, You might want to read it by Clicking Here.
Now to understand these signs, one must look for several ingredients :
(1.) A clear continuous and brutal downtrend for at least 6 months - the longer the
downtrend, the better. (2.) Next is a rally, a mini ZS or a ZS, that breaks the downtrend with
considerable volume. (Click here to know more about the ZS) And (3.) A time of
consolidation from the initial rally, followed by a sequence of breakouts that confirms the
shift in trend.
Below is an example of how a Technican would probably do things if given similar amount
of money as the Funnymentalist.
"Humankind cannot gain anything without first giving something in return. To obtain,
something of equal value must be lost. That is Alchemy's First Law of Equivalent
Exchange."
It's one of the best Animes out there. You should watch it if you still haven't.
When we tread the markets, it is of utmost importance that we understand our place. While
we are part of the market, we are not the market. If the market decides you are wrong, then
you are wrong! Your opinion and positions worth millions or billions are irrelevant. For what
we speak and what we have is not necessarily truth. Only the Market speaks truth. And
when the Market speaks, we listen.
(Snapshot as of 3.16.2016)
By the time this is published, either BHI is no more or probably still there. Who knows? Oh
what a lovely case of Schrodinger's Cat.
Disclaimer : The post you are about to read is my personal opinion and may not necessarily
represent the truth of others. This is my truth and you are free to disagree with me.
3. What is the difference between cutting losses and executing trail stops? How and
when do you set these?
In a nutshell, trail stops are there to preserve your gains while cut points are there to protect
your capital.
By now, you've probably noticed how I do things in tranches. Because executing your buys
and sells in tranches lessens your impact on price swings.
When cutting, I make sure I have two cut points: the first cut point is within the 2-3% range
where I lighten up positions, and yes tax and commissions are included in this computation.
The 2nd is my maximum cut point of -5% which means that if my position reaches or falls
below this level, I cut ALL my positions regardless of the time of day - this rule applies to
ALL my trade setups.
"Ayaw nyo hintayin yung closing sir? Baka tumaas pa! Why not sell on the bounce?"
Never confuse a trail stop for a cut loss point. Here's an example of what can possibly
happen if you do.
-5% vs -18%
When my cut levels are hit, I make sure that by the end of the day, I have no positions left.
Why? Because whenever you violate your rules, it damages your trading psyche. Imagine if
you held on to the loss for the night or drag it on for days and months. You'd have a hard
time consoling and convincing yourself if what you did was right. And trust me, this is going
to mercilessly torment you.
"Should you have cut? Would it go higher? Maybe if I break my rules just this one time..."
As for trailing stops, I usually have two sets. One for moving averages and another for
Darvas - this is for me to maximize the potentials of both worlds.
Assuming that my average entry price (AEP) is already far away from the current price, only
then will I set my MA trail stop. I usually do this when my positions are at least 10%
distance from my designated MA stop. For example:
Having an AEP equal to your MA stop is impractical. If you do this, I won't be surprised if
you say "Pera na, naging bato pa!"
So here are two alternatives that I frequently use in setting stops. The first is set just several
flucs below previous closing price. So if MAC's previous closing was 19.2, then I'll set my
stops at 19.1. The second is set on the nearest darvas support. Sometimes, much of your
profits get eaten on this stop, but if you're banking on the possibility of a continuation since
you're following the trend, you might just get more out of the trade. So carefully weigh your
odds.
In both scenarios of cutting and executing trail stops, whenever I'm loaded with volume and
have a hard time selling intraday, I always sell my final tranche during the matching of
prices EOD since that's where bulk of the buyers show up. If the last traded price was at
19.2, I'll sagasa sell 10-20 flucs down.
As a final reminder,
Related posts on Cutting and Setting Trails
(Please do post on the comments section the links I've missed)
http://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2014/11/trading-101-art-of-cutting-losses.html - The Art of Cutting Losses
http://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2012/10/apm-rise-of-borg.html - Borg Stocks and Trailing Stops
Disclaimer : The post you are about to read is my personal opinion and may not necessarily
represent the truth of others. I am a high risk trader that loves volatility. This is my truth and
you are free to disagree with me.
In ZFT, we only use Moving Averages (MAs), Darvas Box Method, Fibonacci and the RSI
(Relative Strength Index). Many might be surprised how we only have these four in our
arsenal.
"So you telling me, yan lang? Wala bang secret indicator?" "Well, Wala!"
I'm not saying other indicators aren't going to make you money. I'm saying mastery is key.
A person who has an understanding and can use 10% potential of 10 different martial arts
will never match up to a person who has a 100% mastery over one technique.
2. How do you buy and what time of the day is it best to buy stocks?
Whatever the setup or play, I always buy in tranches - 3 tranches to be exact : Before,
During, and After breakout point. The volume for all three can be equal or different
depending on your risk appetite. The tranches can be done in weeks, several days or all in
one day.
This is a good risk management strategy as it can minimize potential losses in case of a
fake-out. This would also maximize your time and lessen your opportunity loss when your
current stock hasn't broken out yet with your initial tranche while other stocks are moving.
Wouldn't it be such a shame if you were fully committed on a stock that isn't moving and
suddenly a super play appears?
As for when is the best time to buy, that would depend on your risk appetite.
If you are a risk-taker, have the time, then buy during the intraday breakout and cross your
fingers the trade won't explode. If the breakout happened in the morning session, expect a
lot of price fluctuation and get ready to cut loss when necessary. If the breakout happened
in the afternoon, there's a good chance momentum will continue until market close.
I personally buy sets of my tranches between 2:30 - 3:20 PM since this is the time where
prices would likely show their true intentions - whether they would like to break-out, break-
down or stay boringly put.
3. What is the difference between cutting losses and executing trail stops? How and
when do you set these?
In a nutshell, trail stops are there to preserve your gains while cut points are there to protect
your capital.
If you have Questions that aren't in this post (click here), feel free to post it on the
comments.
I'm sure most of you have seen these anointed ones all over social media and stock market
groups. The funny thing about these guys is how much they love to be right..
So let me first enlighten you to a very powerful prophetic indicator that only a few mortal
men use.
A bearish divergence appears when the price makes a higher high but the RSI forms a
lower high. Simple right? If you want it in more simpler terms, it could be that most people
are bullish on a stock but the price isn't going anywhere and suddenly one day, decides to
drop - which confirms the divergence.
Now let me take you to another session of appreciating renaissance art while
understanding sentiment cycles. Let's begin!
When a monster rally starts on a stock, people obviously take notice. Anointed ones would
then claim how beautiful this company is based on their market experience. So they urge
the new bloods to read on the company.
Obviously this would lead into a lot of discussion. Some would try to refute and warn but
ultimately drown as things turn when gurus would then claim victory over favorable price
actions amplified by the voices of their cult following.
At some point, many would profit from the run. And some would usually share how lovely
their experiences were and how glad they listened. Their "work" would then be used as
gospel to the unbelievers.
"See? Bagger na kami! (Actually not yet for me, but) Be quiet and just sit tight!"
We all know where this is headed right? But not a lot would accept the market's truth.
When you see this statement, it really means "I don't know what this statement means but
I'll say it anyway so I'll look smart."
This vicious cycle is very prevalent when you see anointed ones here and there hype the
certain stock non stop even during consolidations and obvious price dumps.
When a bearish divergence confirms and materializes the bear, that's when things get
nasty. So if I were you, I'd be taking what I have even if it is at a loss and don't look back.
https://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2016/05/stories-of-high-risk-trader-gurus-and.html - Stories
of A High Risk Trader : Gurus and Bagger Plays
You have all heard about how we do our initiations. "The Purge." The cleansing of one's
portfolio of every existing stock position a trader or an investor might have. We do this
because our trades and investments reflect who we are. And if one wishes to know our
ways, one must first become no one.
After the purge, a trading ban is imposed. No trades shall be executed until one is ready to
face the challenge. And this would usually force to the surface the following wrong mindsets
:
1. Makabawi Syndrome.
2. FOMO (Fear of missing out)
Out of the many other deadly mindsets, these two are the most destructive to one's port
especially when both are presently eating at the trader's mind.
The want to recover all losses. And the want to ride all opportunities.
The previous months have been extremely bloody and hard to trade for a lot of us. If you
made money during the mini bear cycle since May of Last year then you're one helluva
trader. Kudos. But for those who didn't make money and even lost.. the pressure to earn
and regain everything is real.
To beat the deadly Makabawi Syndrome or FOMO is to first assess and acknowledge if you
have it.
If you have answered YES to any of these questions, then you might just have it.
The second thing you need to do, contrary to how it sounds, is to do absolutely NOTHING.
When playing a game, any game or craft that you have mastered, you realize that there
should be a sense of control. Of being aware not just of your surroundings and your
opponent, but of yourself and your limitations. The moment this control is absent is the
moment you gamble and lose.
Emotions are the raw driving force of prices in our markets. But it is the mind that sparks
what comes forth from the heart. A mind that is in decay and exhausted needs time to heal.
For how long you ask? A few days to a week. Probably a month. Only when the mind is in
perfect condition can a person execute what is seemingly impossible over and over again.
Last week the new batch of ZFT had their first practicals. They were given a pass to
execute several trades.
To gauge what the students have learned so far, teachers create exams at the culmination of every major lesson. In the House of ZFT,
our first exam is handed to us through a Buy button. (see The Three Musketeers)
The cut point was at -8%. The area of maximum tolerance. When that point is reached, you sell all your positions without ifs and buts. It
was higher than the standard -4 to -5% of the ZFT system as we have exposed only a tenth of our portfolio value. It was a trial run, a
I looked forward to our next class after we inevitably had to cut our
losses. I was wondering how Zee would react, what he would say. Come Friday night, I didn't think the lesson would be... juicy.
It was juicy like Jessy. Appropriately, our latest topic was about money management and how to avoid being emotional when trading.
Zee posed a question to kick off our class.
This is how I saw it. Emotions come out to play when something of
significance is at stake. If you don‘t involve real money in it, how
else would you take the test seriously?
"If you don't put money in your trades, 'di kayo matututo," Zee added.
And that is our goal ultimately, that is the reason why we are
here in the first place—to learn. It may mean we‘ll have to
take a few hits, endure several sleepless nights, get our egos
bruised again and again. But if in every wound, there is a lesson, I‘ll take it any day.
Emotions. They said that there are only two fundamental emotions in this world: love and fear. All other feelings that we
experience—happiness, sadness, contentment, greed—stem from just either of the two. Every positive emotion comes in a place
where there is love and every negative emotion where there is fear. To learn how to control love and fear is not only difficult, it is
herculean.
Emotion is the very definition of human beings. This is why out of all
the lessons we have to fully grasp in this course, taming our
emotions would prove to be the most challenging. Neither advanced
technical weaponry nor a well-thought out trading plan would allow
you to execute a trade flawlessly once emotions come trickling in.
This is something that every trader has to continuously learn.
And that‘s when pieces will fall into place, the moment we take responsibility for the
choices we make. The moment we stop blaming others for the misery we are in.
After much though, I decided to join in. And to make it more interesting, I went all in. Quite a
challenge I must say given my size and my average holding period of 3 days.
Forced to a one month lock and no trading funds except that measly 18k, I might just take
an early vacation. I'll prolly visit Camiguin or Cebu or some place with good beaches.
After all, -8% isn't much of a loss compared to losing the mind.
There's this thing about us technicians on how we analyze things in the chart and see price
action before they happen. It's like we're on ZFT or something
With the surge of people in FB Groups and social media who are now openly sharing their
Tech Analysis and Hype Charts, we will try to talk about the popular ways on how we can
go into the realm of Subjective Trading. Because sometimes, you just can't help it. The
beastly menace within you, urges all your body cells to Hype yourself. And in the process,
hype others. This post is part two of The Deadly Trading Mindsets. If you haven't read that
post yet, I suggest you do.
Let's Begin.
Don't like a sell signal on your chart? No worries! Just take out that loser that's going
against you and leave all the ones that tell you what you want to hear. It's nothing personal
really. And besides, you'd look like a pretty bad ass ginyos!
Maybe in the future when that indicator gives you that sweet 3-Letter word, then you'll let
her join your little group.
Wicks are sometimes an eyesore to us technicians. "If not for that lousy shadow, the chart
would be PERFECT!" A Wick means Weak. That's why you see some tech traders ignore
wicks and just go for body to body analysis. And what better way to remove these darned
things by switching to that line chart?
Problem Solved!
Kind of like how makeup does its thing. So when you see a line chart posted somewhere
that looks perfect, be careful. Be VERY careful.
Channels and Trendlines are a universal thing. It can give you a projection or an estimate of
where things could go. But just like any other tool, they have limits.
Channels and Trendlines work on a very subjective level. Their placement will depend on
the eyes of the beholder.
Example : You buy on trendline support then all of a sudden price breaks down from that
trendline support. What do you do? Proceed to use the horizontal support instead where it's
still a buy. (Thanks Fullmetal Chartist)
If prices go on the border of those two, it's probably a sign to buy or sell right? But what do
you do if prices go beyond those levels? What if you like using the LOGarithmic chart
instead of the LINear chart?
This is just me, but trendlines and channels are illusions. The Moving Averages along with
the Absolute Support and Resistances or Pivot Points are the real deal.
4. Switching Timeframes
You find yourself hopeful on a stock that you have but the short term chart tells you it's
gonna fall. So what do you do? Pep talk yourself by looking at the weekly or monthly charts
- even if they haven't completed their candles yet.
You see a pattern that's awfully popular. But you're not quite sure if you're seeing what
you're seeing. You don't confirm the pattern with the internet because, YOLO! "Why isn't
anyone posting any charts?" You ask yourself. Of course! Ikaw lang hinihintay magpost. So
you go with your ignorant gut and claim the pattern!
And if you accidentally found a pattern that no one else has, and it worked the first time,
why else wouldn't it work the next time? So you go on and name your pattern. Even put a
trademark. After all, you are now a stock-market ginyos!
There's a fine line between chart sharing and chart hyping. If you are a good trader and
technician, there's no need to hype. What for? But if you do feel like hyping, then by all
means hype! But keep it to yourself.
These are the big 5 on Subjective Technical Trading.
Any violent reactions? Did I miss anything? Let me know in comments below.
Trading setups are a matter of perspective. whether the market is up or down, there will
always be opportunity. and while opportunities exist, there is no such thing as absolute truth
in the markets - only possibilities. What could be true today, might not be true tomorrow.
As traders, while it is our duty to predict and prepare, our primary objective is to react. For
anyone can make predictions, but only a bold few can truly react.
The raw movements of the prices in our markets are driven by emotion. And for us to profit
from this truth, one must tame thyself of emotions.
This is Dedicated to all my friends and relatives who have been asking me about the stock
market.
Open an Account! I notice karamihan sa mga nagtatanong, hangang dito lang. Tanong
about stocks, pano kumita, etc. pero never nag oopen ng account. Please lungs, don't
waste precious time. Once you open an account, the excitement naturally comes in. Trust
me. Parang yung feeling na may napanalunan ka sa mall raffle, tapos pag dating mo sa
claim booth, ballpen lang pala. #realtalk
I know we have heard some stories from people na kumita ng malaki sa stocks. "A friend of
a friend" na kumita ng 6 digits, 7, and even 8 or more. Parang scam lang. Pero I'm sure
mas marami kayong mga narinig na nalugi. 5 figures, 6, 7, pati mga life savings. Yung
tipong pati bahay at aso binenta na dahil sa laki ng lugi.
Akala mo joke pero hindi. Sometimes exagge na yung mga kwento pero sa mundo ng
stocks, anything goes!
People who lose in the stock market and tell you not to invest kasi gambling siya are people
you want to, but at the same time don't want to listen to. Bitter ocampo sila. Sino ba
namang hindi mabibitter after malugi? So let us learn from their example.
Parang exam lang. Pag hindi ka nag aral, don't expect na pumasa ka.
But for those who work hard and invest their time in financial literacy or learning how the
market works, sure ako you won't be bitter in the end. Who knows? You could be the next
billionaire like lolo Warren Buffet. Kaya Aral Muna Bago Invest.
Manage Expectations
In stocks, pwede kang kumita ng up to +50% in a day. So if you have P1,000 invested sa
isang stock at kinabukasan ay umabot sa kisame, abay siguradong may pang eat-all-you-
can-for-two ka na. From 1k to 1.5k in a day. Imagine that. Kaso, once in a blue moon lang
nangyayari yan. Okay lang. Libre mangarap.
Pero you have to understand na hindi sa lahat ng panahon maayos ang takbo ng merkado.
May mga seasons na mabilis kumita, and may mga season na mas madaling olats. Parang
internet connection mo lang. Sasabihin ay up to 1MBPs pero yung average speed mo ay
mga 50-200KBPs lang.
Pwedeng pwede ka ring malugi ng -50% in a day! Kapag yan na experience mo, good bye
eat all you can, Hello pancit canton!
In this field, it‟s dog eat dog. Hindi lahat ng expert sa stocks gusto ka tulungan. At hindi
lahat ng "expert" ay expert, kasi pwedeng nagmamarunong lang dahil kumita noong bull
market or naka jackpot sa isang super stock. Pwede ring Scammer! Maraming ganyan.
Lakas mamigay ng investment advice pero olats naman sa trades. Parang yung classmate
mo lang nung college or high school na itatawag nating si Fe, ang galing mamigay ng love
advice pero No Boyfriend Since Birth - Ironic.
Kapag may ginyos na nagmamagaling dahil nga "magaling" siya sa kanyang investment
calls, simple lang para malaman kung siya ay legit. Ask for proof. Ask for historical
transactions or a ledger.
Kung wala siyang mapakita, jokingly say "Pics or It Didn't happen." and slowly walk away.
Learning alone is possible naman. Having someone to guide you speeds up everything.
Pero pag nagkamali ka ng pagpili ng mentor, for sure speed up din yung losses mo. Kaya
wag magpapa ulol! - Take every advice with a grain of salt.
Now, they say that at some point when people invest in stocks, marami ang nagiging
relehiyoso. Lalong-lalo na kapag ipit na ang kanilang investment.
But "Buy and Pray" is the worst strategy of all. Kapag ginawa mo ito, Juice Colored!
Dinamay mo pa ang Diyos sa kalokohan mo at nakipag kompitensya ka pa sa mga
tumataya sa loto.
Wala pa akong kilalang successful na investor or trader na hindi umincurr ng loss. Normal
po yan. Consider these losses as your tuition. The only time your loss becomes a loss is
when you don't learn from them.
Nagmamahal, ZF
Ganito pala ang ibig sabihin ng "let your money work for you" nakatambay lang ako sa
bahay nyan at walang ginagawa. P1,500,000 in 5 Trading Days. Parang Scam lang...
Pero legit.
The path to a consistent, profitable system, always starts with experimentation. Because
admit it, even if you read all those books and blogs, mimic your favorite guru, watch expert
trading videos... Knowing... is very different from Doing.
One of the basic self-check, flow chart a beginner must have when trading is this.
It always starts with a trading plan and the emphasis is more on the volume of the trade and
your mental state if ever you lost the trade.
Why? Because the trader's mental and emotional capacity has an interesting correlation to
the volume of the trade. Confused?
Here's an example.
Scenario 1:
You allocated 1/10th of your portfolio to DNL. Whether you win or lose, this will probably be
your reaction: Nothing much really.
Because the volume wasn't that significant to move your port to begin with.
Scenario 2:
You allocated at least 1/2 of your port to TAPET at the lows before it went sky high.
You get a confidence boost - Feeling like some hero or tyrant that can conquer anything in
the world.
Scenario 3:
You went all in FNI because of strong FA and TA. (Facebook Analysis / Tsismis Analysis)
So it makes sense now huh? Now when you document a trade, add up the numbers.
And after getting a hefty sum of trades, review, and look for the plays you are strongest and
those that you are weakest.
This doesn't mean that you should stop trading the setups that you are weakest. But it
should be a challenge for you to experiment and practice until you finally get your batting
average into the green.
These numbers speak out to YOU. Think of the 'wins' column as confidence points. The
greater the wins you have, the more volume you can allocate. The greater the losses, but
you have, the lesser the volume you should commit.
When you gain confidence because of the numerous trial and errors, and when you can
properly handle and tolerate losses to a certain degree of exposure, only then should you
"up the dose."
Because when I started out, I remembered and learned from my losses more than my
winning trades.
Everyone loses. But the only time it truly becomes a loss, is when you don't learn from the
experience.
Abnormally High Volume compared to previous days + Candlestick making a new recent
high (and usually with an upper shadow) The shorter the play, the easier it is to find.
IP Daily Chart
Some people define "Basura Plays" as an act of making money, especially when the
general market sentiment is down or boring. These plays are observed to be very volatile,
especially on bloody days when it stands out. And strangely, in almost every instance,
during the early course of its run, a good rumor gets "leaked" - turning some people mad.
Question: So how do we spot these basuras before they fly sky-high?
Answer: It's all in the Charts!
Here are a few examples:
MR = Major Resistance
NR = New Resistance
NS = New Support
RB = Resistance Break
RT = Resistance (Touching)
When you see a Basura included in the top 10-20 Gainers, check out its chart and view in a
long term perspective (1-3yrs). And Look for its Major Resistance.
If it touches the major resistance, but doesn't break it, add the Basura to your watch list.
Pullbacks would then be good opportunities to put your initial positions.
For big traders, they call this accumulation.
A break from the major resistance would then confirm the continuation and the beginning of
a new plane of upsurge.
Before you continue reading, If you have AR, IS, or any 3rd liner stock that you have or are
planning to buy, then this post is for you. If you don't play 3rd liners, then you better waste
your time somewhere else.
A lot of people have been asking me if I have IS or AR. Or if I knew what was happening to
these two and why. And I'm sure there are a lot of Rumors and "Facts" and crazy Target
Prices circling around the internet. But to answer all those PM's , DM's and future M's, I
would like to say: "I have no idea."
Allow me to explain.
A few months ago, I started to keep my distance from forums, social media groups, and
even my buddies relating to stocks. I know that feeling of chasing stocks and wanting to
know what's going on. But I'd like to tell you right now that knowing the rumors or even the
facts don't really help much - even if those are 1st hand facts! and there's a very good
reason why the experts call it "Market Noise."
In my years of trading, I have lost more money by listening and putting my faith and hope to
these rumors and facts than me 'dart-boarding' 3rd liners. And that, my dear readers and
students, is a fact. Everybody starts as noobs. But not everybody grows to be traders. (or
*ahem* professional Basureros)
No matter how you look at it, when Playing with Basuras, It's BURN or BE BURNED
Now before I proceed any further, I would just like to set the record straight, I am not
endorsing these stocks. Although in a way, I am. But you get the point right? Before you
enter into the trade, do your homework. Don't copy. And don't say crap like "But my plan is
to follow YOUR plan!" Because when that plan fails and things go sour, you'd most
probably play the blame game. But in reality, the only one that deserves that blame is you.
Unless of course your "Guru" pressed that darned Buy button for you! Am I being too
emotional? Alright, now let's get into those charts.
AR
Now, you've probably seen and heard of the common TP's and charts, so I present to you a
"what if" the current 52 week high ( .0086) and the psychological .01 get's broken scenario,
then what? There is probably a lot of resistance after .01 but the boss of resistances after
that is at .013 Again, only consider this scenario possible when the current 52 week high
gets broken.
I'm not really a fan of patatas stocks. I got burned a lot of times because of listening to this
"Guru" and his Anointed Ones. But I'm thankful for his existence - And to all the other
"Gurus" and Backstabbers. For I survived and learned how to smell sh!t and propaganda
from a mile away.
I hate to explain things over and over again. Link Rise of Borg APM
I would just like to add: when a stock breaks, it's ATH (All Time High) , there are NO
exact TPs (Target Prices). Those are just illusions. Like experiencing and chasing after a
mirage in the middle of a desert or some godforsaken place.
I had a good chat with a friend who had IS and told me that he sold his shares in 0.5
because apparently, his tipster told him that the dear 'Jocks' had set the TP and run until
0.5 only. He was so happy his 0.5 GTC sell got hit.
Dear friend, if you are reading this I do hope you don't skin your tipster alive this coming
Monday. So don't set TPs. Just don't. Set TSs (Trailing Stops) instead.
Folks, just remember that by the end of the day, no matter how crappy or fundamentally
sound the stock, it is emotions that drive the price, quantified and simplified into those little
cute things you call candlesticks.
If you're wondering how my port is doing after a long hiatus:
Trading or Investing in stocks is like playing Patintero. It's all about the lines.
When I started trading stocks, i didn't know anything about candlesticks or patterns. And
though I did my best to learn them, as a newbie without a mentor, I got frustrated halfway. I
tried listening to the words of the 'enlightened ones' or gurus - sometimes it helped,
sometimes it didn't.
But hey. Later I found out a better way of trading - Following "The Lines."
And these lines became my trusted friends in trading. The Moving Averages
These are my linemen. You can customize your linemen the way you want.
Red Line = 30 MA
Pink Line = 60 MA
Blue Line = 90 MA
In Simple words:
When your "linemen" are above the candles, the trend is down.
When your "linemen" are below the candles, the trend is up.
In Patintero, once a lineman catches you, you're out! Period.
In stock, I can choose which lineman tells me when I'm out.
Example:
Additional Notes:
Moving Averages work well with Blue Chips, some 2nd Liners, but rarely on 3rd Liners
(should be jockeyed).
When you use MAs, you need to have patience.
My current linemen are 20/50/100 MAs.
"The trend is your friend."
Always consider how many of your linemen are on your side.
"When is the right time to bottom fish? Is it safe? At what price should I buy??"
We've all asked these questions at one point. And thought it was this easy
I tried experimenting with a LOT of setups Bottom Fishing is very RISKY.
The one main reason being that you are fighting against the trend. Just ask those who
bought ANI at PHP10, 7, 4 or lower because of "good fundamentals" or techs being
oversold due to the low RSI.
So be careful when you come across fundamental gurus who talk about technicals. Or
technical gurus who suddenly talk about fundamentals - Coz that's just funnymentals and
other made-up crap.
I don't know about you. But I bottom fish for these reasons:
1 - Rewards.
Yes it's risky. But if you get it right and you bought with volume, you might just get a ticket to
"financial independence-land."
2 - Bragging Rights.
I'm a very competitive person. And I love the feeling of putting haters and gurung ulols to
shame.
"So why bother Bottom fishing?" You might ask. "But Zeeeee! How do you know if it's the
bottom?"
Simple. I don't.
You'll only get to see the bottom, once you see the 'ball' actually reach the bottom and
starts "floating up." And from there, you react and press the attack.
Example
Tried to bottom fish, but barat bids denied. Bought 1.23-1.25 for the first tranche base then
ended up buying all i could at the close (Sagasa Order).
Day 1 Of Bounce
While others cheer that they could at least break even. I joined the minority in cheering to
enjoy some profits.
A Total of 3 Days hold. No hype. No rumors. No tips. No gurus. Just the chart and
you.
I'd like to be very clear about this: I don't have any VLL shares nor do I plan to buy.
Just recently, my friend from before asked me again how his stock was doing. This time he
was hesitant and was very particular on the BID/ASK board.
Now, one thing that was so interesting about this stock is the continuous accumulation and
price control that was so obvious if you paid attention to the ticker, especially during the last
minutes of every trading day.
Here's Broker Transactions for this week:
Another
thing
that
interests me now is how the stock has been resilient even when Ms. Market has gone mad!
“They do so when they know that the current price is low, undervalued, or whatever you
may call it, and foresee an increase in the stock‟s future value”
Ok, now that that‟s out of the way I would like to attempt to explain the accumulation
process, especially when you look at the BID/ASK board.
This board represents a lot of statistics and psychology.
It shows the demand/supply of shares, greed/fear factor, blah blah blah…
Now I‟m sounding a bit too Un-Zeefreaks like.
Don‟t you just feel like screaming and pressing that sell button once you see those big walls
on the ask side on your favorite stock?
Those basterds, the lions and scarecrows have gone cahoots! And they're out to steal your
precious shares!!! They throw big ask orders to scare those who dare look at the board and
give them the impression that prices will not go further; While doing this, they bid low and in
small amounts, giving the impression that demand is low and that prices are likely to fall.
And these small bids don't run out - you sell... and THEY fill the bid orders again and again
until YOU run out. (We call this "Iceberg" buying)
This process flushes out the "weak hands" and at the same time draws just the right candle
on the chart.
As they say, it's like hitting two birds with one stone.
Accumulation takes time. Patience is the name of the game.
Now the question is… Will you give in and be eaten?
Usual Swing Trader Chart - WITHOUT the other indicators (MACD, RSI, STS, OBV)
Looking at this chart - a swing trader would have 10 times the opportunity to make a killing
trade on PXP…..
But doing so requires a lot of time, effort, knowledge and guts to be able to successfully
make the trade..
.
The Rewards are Greater in Swing Trading “but so are the RISKS”
Trend Follower's Chart - Effective even with only one indicator : The MA‟s
Trend followers on the other hand, buy and hold stocks until one of their selected moving
averages "snaps"
This method can often times be stress-free and only requires the trend follower to be
patient.
So to the Padawans, you could try doing both and see for yourself which method suits you.
But whatever side you're on, what matters is that by the end of the trade
Shaded Brown
6 Feet Deep. Rest In Pieces.
I usually keep 1 to 4 Trending Stocks - all with almost the same trade value.
And when a stock is ready for profit taking, I sell all, if not some of it and transfer the funds
to the remaining three stocks or add to a new stock position.
Sometimes I go over 4 stocks, but when I do,
I switch and sell the weakest of my holdings and go back to the original 4 or less..
And the worst part is, your broker... let's say.. just out of total "randomness"
House 203 would have one of those "stroke moments" during market panics.
What do you do? Imagine the pain...
So as much as possible, keep or buy only what you can manage.
"Okay Zee Enough with the talk". I get it. You want results. Here ya go...
Port as of 1.24.2012
Port as of 1.25.2012
Port as of 1.26.2012
Port as of 1.27.2012
Port as of 1.31.2012
On Cutting Losses:
Don't let a loss reach -4% Cut before it reaches that level.
On Taking Profits:
There are no Target Prices, Only Trailing Stops.
On Trading A stock:
Trade with bias. If a stock does not move according to your bias, Sell.
For those of you who don't know about the Borg from the Star Trek Series,
“Borgs are the merciless living nightmares of the vast galaxy that destroys any sentient race
in its pat”
The catalyst for this phenomenon is usually unknown, especially during the rise.
So how do we play with these bad ass stocks?
Buy on Breakout and Set Trailing Stops.
There are many ways to set trailing stops to Find that which suits your trading style best.
Be sure to SELL when your stop is hit. Trust me... You don't want to be holding a dead
Borg.
But when the 100MA dives under the prices,It takes the rally into another whole new
rampaging level!
Now I don't know how you call it in your village, but I call it Zeus' Strike
because of that Blue 100MA that kind a reminds me of Zeus' Lightning bolt strikes
that sends things flying whenever it hits the ground.
So when you see that 100MA getting close to the prices, you better be locked and
loaded.
I'm sure this isn't the first time you've heard about this right?
I've heard and seen this a lot in movies. And they say that this phenomenon usually brings
"Good Fortune"
When you see the 3 moving averages in this order : where 20MA > 50MA > 100MA,
That means the Alignment of the Stars has favored the Bulls and we can all sit tight and
start counting our growing profits.
These lines and parameters are the Trend Follower's Favorite. "The gods have given us an
UPTREND!"
But I also remember some scenes where the alignment caused "FREE-DOOM!"
NI Daily Chart
And yes, there's also A Reverse Zeus' Strike. But when dealing with 3rd liners (and some
jockeyed 2nd liners), it is sometimes important that you also watch its weekly chart. Not all
3rd liners can sustain big and long runs. So by doing this, you'll be able to get hints if a
Zeus' Strike or The Alignment Of The Stars is a sign of more God Smitin',
Additional Notes
In the case of Blue Chips and fundamentally sound 2nd Liners,
ZS and AOTS in the Daily Chart is enough.
Additional Charts
(2nd Half 2015)
And yes. She's upside down or it could be that Romeo is the one who's upside down.
My head is starting to hurt. Let's just say they live in a very complicated world.
They are lovers. They don't know it yet. But they are confused? Don't worry. I'm confused
too……Now here's a chart.
Now they haven't seen each other for a very long time What do you think happens when
they do? MAGIC!
I could have waited for a clear breakdown...But sometimes I just want to play the bad guy...
Recently, I have been getting multiple 'letters'
of serious yet funny questions like "are you a jockey?" "are you group trading?" and other
similar questions so to answer these, No and No.
I'm just a small time trader with a system fine tuned for basura plays and while I do teach
real time trading to my students, I avoid disclosing my buys/sells for them to learn on their
own.
In the markets, there is no such thing as trading buddies or "allies." Because by the end of
the day, whether you like it or not, we're all just animals trying to survive. It's Eat or be
eaten.
(1st Trophy Trade for 2015. Too bad didn't break that 1M profit barrier)
http://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2013/02/trading-101-osmosis.html
The "PR" only happens to 3rd-Liner or Notorious stocks that have been on a steady, long,
downtrend so Just to be clear: A PR is not a ZS but they do have things in common.
Now, on to the exciting part...
"SJ Rox you lucky bastard!" Some might say. But nooooooooooo!
I'm assuming something like this happened the day after that two-day pirate rally: And thus
the term, "Insider's Call"
I know it's lame. Deal with it! All stocks, whether blue chips or 3rd Liners have their own set
of insiders. You just hafta identify which houses they use or if there are any fishy players
disturbing the "peace." On 3rd Liners however, Insider Calls can be easily spotted when
you see "buys of aggression" on the board, assume that somewhere, somebody's cooking
a pot of profits and you might want to join in - of course you hafta weigh the odds before
you get in at whatever price that stock is currently at.
Just think about it... Who in their right mind would buy trash? (especially when they buy in
big amounts)
I rarely go to forums or social media to read "Anong meron" or What's up posts regarding
super stocks. And recently I just did. Usually, my reason for reading is to be entertained by
the mudslinging between the hypers and bashers. And my usual reaction?
Who still remembers BHI's "Gabay" from 3 years ago? No disrespect to the person, but you
know a stock's end is near when you find a crowd of hypers hungry for the next post of a
personality i shall now call "the informant."
Anyways, don't you find it strange that this informant who to be honest, hasn't been a
notorious rumormonger for some time, suddenly pops out of nowhere with all this
information and stuff? And talk about timing! Why now? Why not when it was trading before
the super move?
And the funny thing is, the majority would accept anything this person says. Like some holy
prophet or something.
I now give you this crown and you will be called the "Anointed One" , respected and known
throughout the stock forums or whatever social media you use.
I know it's sound crazy. But if you don't believe me, go and check out those forums and
social media. And if you already know about these "Anointed Ones" could you post the links
on the comments below so future readers would be enlightened? Thanks.
When you start chanting these words in your mind. Your port might end up like the ports of
two Basura fund managers that I happen to stumble upon somewhere.
Specimen A
Specimen B
Before we start, please click that lovely link below and observe the stock allocation of the
Mage Class
During my adventures, I have met some traders who are in this category big time. I was
wondering how some people have the strength to 'love' just a few stocks for months without
rest.
You know, those who post relentlessly on the threads of their favorite stucks, sometimes
just talking to themselves or worse, creating multiple accounts just so these accounts could
talk to each other.
All just so others would take notice - maybe to the hype, to have the thread on the top
pages, or some reason who knows what. It's pretty damn funny sometimes.
I'm sure you guys and gals have met a bunch. Just a tip in dealing with these types:
Even if we're in the internet, Never make eye contact. Never!
But the best part about these guys, is when the stock begins a monster rally. And then they
start acting like a know it all guru and "telling you so." And those who oppose this new guru
gets to be ganged up by the crazy followers - Such magnificent display of ignorance. But
who cares?
When dealing with sleepers, you should first ask yourself these fundamental technical
questions:
If you answered yes. The next questions you should consider if you plan on buying the
sleeper are:
If you answer Yes to these, then you're another step to making that trade.
Because most traders fail to prepare their minds and so these things happen:
Having the right mindset for the right kind of play and to the right kind of trader is key to a
successful trade.
Which means, if you're a trader who loves quick plays, don't go 'investing' or if you're buying
to invest, don't get excited every friggin' time your stock goes up.
Buying a sleeper means buying at a low range. And buying at this particular range isn't very
easy. For one, it's probably in an illiquid state. Not a lot of transactions happening.
It can desecrate supports or even give wild upswings if some trader suddenly loses his
mind.
Couldn't get my
earlier records. And
it doesn't look the
same now because
of those stock divs.
But If everything goes well and momentum picks up, volume and liquidity will gradually
improve. And all those days and stress of hoarding for those shares will finally pay off and
from here, you get to sweetly decide if you're going to transition your play to TF or
Momentum.
Simple. Once it breaks a major resistance most prolly the 3 or 6 months resistance.
It doesn't always look like that. But oh well you get to say some things when you're ZF and
as to the upside once momentum kicks in?
Here's an idea:
http://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2014/11/just-for-records-mrc.html - “MRC – Sleeper Play”
(Snapshot as of 7.1.2015)
Contrary to popular belief, you don't need to trade every winning stock to be highly
profitable in the markets. You just need to trade the few stocks that matter.
Trading Port (v1) : Class : Elven Archer "One Shot. One Kill"
Precision is everything, does high damage to
targets. But taking a single critical hit could prove
fatal. A highly specialized class of traders who are
either crazy hunters that have that need to feel that adrenaline rush, or strategic players
who are deadly accurate in calling the shots. Either way, a strong mental capacity is
required for this class.
These aren't your average traders. Speculative sleepers and Dividends are their specialty.
Cash or Stocks, they can smell it a mile away.
There are many kinds of port classes. Some even diverge. But if you wish to maximize your
gains, (if your liquidity allows), then pick a class above.
So what class are you?
I don't have a TP. Another reason why I'm posting this here is for bragging rights.
You see all those gurus and 'ginyoses' posting charts yet have not a single damned share
in their port(s). When the end for this cycle comes, I'd like to be one of the annoying ones
who say....
Now for those of you who read this post, and buy because of what you read just remember
that I'm ready to unload my hoard when the tide turns and my expectations are not met.
I understand that I've gained quite a number of haters, and people who just want to see my
port burn. Well...
Port C : Sleeper
Shake me if you can. Because this port got all the time in the world.
Technically good. But what bothers me is houses 253 (Tower) and especially 115 (SB -
mgt. Broker) being net sellers, a lot of houses in ipit state, and general market being
bearish.
But now that the tides have turned, what do they do? They blame the same people for their losses. If
one would only be objective in trading.
He could have gained a maximum of 27.65% from BHI today, buying at the lows, and selling at the
days high. Ok. Ok. highly improbable, so let's just say a minimum of 10% Gain. Not bad for a day's
trade.
If you already have the money. Then be a Judas Trader. BHIlieve (BUY), then BHItray (SELL) And
rid yourself of all emotions or you'll end up like the real Judas when he became emotional.
BHIlieved, BHItrayed, but in the end nag BHIgti. (Loss of at least 25%)
For those who BHIlieved 'other people' , they are now feeling BHItrayed when you play this kind of
game, never trust anyone but yourself.
A company that
submitted their FS
in the nick of time.
(Pinoy Company
nga!)
No matter how
good the 'figures'
are, this act and
mindset is just
another form of BS.
I believe in
investing in
companies that
don't only have
good track records,
But also a
management with
excellent command
and initiative in the
business.
BHI is not one of
them
Chart: "Up Up and Away! But as to how high this will go, only the Jockey knows."
How long do you think you can hold the iNihao food? Masarap kumain ng iNIhao!
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
Case Study
While NI is
The Good news is, we just broke the psychological P1 Mark, and made
an all time high at 1.13! We are at the next level of distribution.
Here are the top 10 Buyers/Sellers for ABA today. (Click the images to Enlarge)
Care to guess which brokers serve the same master?
Top 10 Sellers
Top 10 Buyers
Before you buy, it is important to familiarize yourself with the characteristics of that
particular stock.
If you bought and held today. I think You're in deep ****.
During the last Minutes of Trading, there was a sudden bid - pad of 15M+ Shares at 1.24.
For your own safety, please follow your OWN trading plan
and do not believe the crazy trader.
Ideal Buy Price @ .375 / 38
Cutpoint = If prices closes below .375
(Darvas Method)
Additional Notes:
Jockeyed Stock, has high Volatility, and is currently in a "Slightly Liquid" state.
Expect another +50% Upside If Recent 52-Week High Gets Broken
But unlike PWR that had no "other" resistances, VITA still has one more to take out @ 1.72
It's Amazing how players and the market as a whole react to certain patterns. But of course,
there's always that possibility that the market and theplayers have changed. Trade with
caution.
Update 10.29.2012
It could have mimicked PWR if it closed near the highs.
But alas it did not. Too bad.
Case Study
“Investor Mode”
But just for study. Using TA, I'm trying to find and "time" good
[strong fundamentals] stocks for long term investment.
If those key resistances are breached, HOLD until your greed is satisfied. Hihihihi.
Buy on dips... Follow the trend...
Timeframe: 3-6 Months
PD: None as of the moment.
Though these Stocks are slow compared to the speculative hares, you'll be sure they end
up winners.
Type A
Accumulation and Consolidation Stage, Extremely Boring Movement.
Hoard With the Fundies if you wish to get it at a discount.
(Click Here For My Post on Type A Movement)
Type B
Breakout. The most Subtle of all breakouts. Start Buying Like Crazy.
Type C
Chase. It's still safe to chase prices. The Run is just starting.
AP Daily Chart
Remember,
There are no Target Prices.
Only Trailing Stops.
For Basura Stocks, there's always a bad-ass insider. Especially when they love to give BS
to the public. Throwing them some really good news...
along with their bombs.
Of course, you don't expect them to hold on to their bombs forever do you?
The length of a basura play is almost always relative to the length of an insider's
accumulation. The longer the accumulation, you get plays like BHI, NI, etc. Just like in war,
the stronger force call in airstrikes, but they don't finish the enemy off! No. Not yet.
Sadists!
But plays like these are better since you have more chances to react when things go sour.
Now Behold, the shape behind the one or two day wonders!
Now, the reason why i put this entry under "Suicide Plays" is
because of the current board - the bid/ask spread.
It's like a CHUCKY stuck!
Once you buy a 100k Shares, you won't be able to sell it so easily.
If you do, this stuck might find itself in the top 10 Losers!
To the adVENTUREr, If you're reading this,
Aren't you the same guy who played AAI and pushed it to a hundred?
hAAApy hoAAArding to you! Hihihi...
When the endgame comes, i just hope this cookie would turn out to be a hell of a fortune
cookie.
Oh and before I forget, here's a little thought that has been tickling my mind recently.
MAKE made a clear breakout from its descending channel 3 days ago.
RSI currently at the 60's
You do know what happened to PWR after it broke out from PISO right?
Maybe I'm just thinking too much. Anything can happen here\
Update 10.12.2012
Bullish = price not going below .088 or .091 (the higher the better) + volume not greater
than today's
Update 10.19.2012
We should see a clear direction on where this is heading within the next 1-2 trading days.
Any close on or above the .16 Level would be considered bullish. Peg your Stop on .144
In
hindsight, it was the right decision.
Fact 2: By tomorrow 12/20/2012, around 30M Shares will be released from lockup.
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-9068_TSI.pdf
Under Normal Circumstances, the 61.8 OR 76.4 Fibo's should hold just fine for a possible
bounce, but with those shares ready to be unlocked by tomorrow, we might just see this
dragged to hell.
"Repent from your Greed and Selleth thy stocks! The end is near!"
I'm not saying any of the current superstocks are going to end anytime now. But then again,
I kinda am. I just feel like I had to post this so that people who think I'm hyping and who
think i'm bullish would think otherwise. (Or not.) Oh. And the ending of every superstock?
Remember those bashers or even a few of those who were hypers? This is what they will
tell you, pretty annoying right? Especially if you didn't get out alive.
And as for The Informant?
I would be lying if I said I wasn't affected. We were talking about what we'd be doing if WEB
would do a "TAPET." Open ceiling. Close ceiling. Everyone who had WEB in the tribe was
mentally preparing for the worst case scenario.
But the thing is... we aren't fundamentalists. Nor are we speculators. We are technicians.
Yes we have emotions but rather than guessing and stressing over the things we cannot
control, we instead act upon the things we can control.
Of course this post wouldn't be complete without those lovely port snapshots to prove our
point. Here's that lovely link (In case you're wondering, we don't do group trades. It's just
that we use the same system and usually end up trading the same set of stocks. )
https://www.facebook.com/Zeefreaks/posts/691073001043028
Once upon a time there was a bunch of tiny frogs who arranged a climbing competition.
The goal was to reach the top of a very high tower.
Honestly: No one in the crowd really believed that the tiny frogs would reach the top of the
tower. You heard statements such as: “Oh, way too difficult!” “They will never make it to the
top.” “Not a chance that they will succeed.” “The tower is too high!”
The tiny frogs began collapsing one by one – except for those who kept a fresh tempo and
kept climbing higher and higher.
The crowd continued to yell, “It is too difficult! No one will make it!” More tiny frogs got tired
and gave up.
But one continued higher and higher and higher. This one wouldn‟t give up.
At the end everyone else had given up climbing the tower. Except for the one tiny frog who,
after a big effort, was the only one who reached the top.
All of the other tiny frogs naturally wanted to know how this one frog managed to do it.
Another contestant asked the tiny frog how he had found the strength to succeed and reach
the goal.
It turned out… the winner was deaf. The wisdom of this story is: Never listen to other
people‟s tendencies to be negative or pessimistic. They take your most wonderful dreams
and wishes away from you if you let them– the ones you have in your heart!
Be deaf to the people who tell you that you cannot fulfil your dreams, goals and aspirations.
Author unknown
Several weeks ago some friends, who have a hard time believing in technicals alone, were
telling me to buy X (Xurpass) because the company has apparently been buying back their
shares at current prices - it was trading between 9.x - 10.x that time.
"Galing sa kinse yan! Umabot pa nga ng Bente. Parang steam games lang, super X-mas
sale! Mismong company buma-buy back! Di sila tanga. Bili na tayo!"
"Cheap Valuations" according to my favorite broker.
I'm no
fundamentalist and
I don't follow
brokers. I'm like
John Snow,
All I know is had I
bought X at that
time based on the
company's buy
back program, I'd
be incurring a loss
of at least -10% by
now.
If you were in my shoes, what would you tell your friends the next time you meet and talk
about X?
POPI
4.21.2015 - 5.14.2015
Update 6.19.2015
After a breakout from that 1.28, POPI zoomed up to as high as 1.59 whipsawing a lot of
traders along the way.
Currently, that 1.28 Level is the current line in the sand for TF players. Swingers would
have their supports pegged at 1.42.
Ideal scenario next week for this baby is to gap this up at the open just 1-3 flucs higher and
hold that 1.47 line.
Another scenario would be to flush out all the weaklings up to 1.42 support (preferably
higher) then close this at 1.47 or higher.
Whatever the case, RSI 70 in the daily must hold if we'd like to see another action pumped
week for POPI If it holds, expect a 2-4 days consolidation before the next upsurge.
Smells like PWR/BHI/PHES/APM/IS play all over again I wish I had this kind of capital
during those days.
Sweet.
Update 6.25.2015
Came so close to another 1M for this month Too bad bulls and buying pressure weakened.
Just an intraday snapshot 'at the highs' current port is lower than this.
If I were the market maker hired to draw POPI, I'd be establishing supports at 1.73-1.61
before blasting this off to the 2.xx levels and distributng my next batch of shares.
The funny thing about this trap is that those small fishes and shrimps think that UBS or
whoever it is, is on THEIR side - that
This big foreign buyer won't sell at a loss. EVER. Well wrong.
Coz you never know if UBS is just one of King's many alter egos.
So many rumors are going around why SMC is going up reminds me of my younger
days of sessions of passing around "the cup” and tell a story.
Most of them were funny lies just for entertainment. It's probably the same thing
going around here. A Buyout? The Japanese Link? I wonder why people tell me
these things when they know I don't care.
Keep it simple.
Additional notes:
IP Weekly Chart
-- Update (October 5) --
Pursuant to the foregoing reasons, the Corporation requests for voluntary trading
suspension in order to prevent an investor to have an undue or unfair advantage on the
trading of IP shares.
But of course...
Trading Suspensions can be quite deadly at the same time.
Remember what happened to DGTL-O and SMC?
Speculators like me might end up as IPits.
And with IPit stock on trading suspension, some IPit Speculators
might just play some of my beloved Enternet Games.
Student Exercises
https://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2011/09/mahilig-ka-ba-sa-enternet-games.html
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Instructions:
1. Read Posts
http://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2013/03/zeus-strike-and-alignment-of-stars.html
http://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2011/09/moving-averages-and-patintero.html
and
http://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2013/02/trading-101-osmosis.html
In the 3 Ports above, which stocks should stay and which ones should be sold (cut)?
By sacrificing a million worth of shares to make a gap, big players create the illusion
of demand and enable them to unload more shares for a higher profit.
People nowadays are so used to hearing lies that they think, what they hear is truth.
It could also be that the lies are becoming too good, that those who tell them
believe it's true and what I find amusing is how low some popular market
personalities have gone.
They tell you facts, throw in some really good quotes from awesome people, then
mix in their lies - to make that deliciously looking, hell spawn baked muffins and the
public doesn't even realize what's happening until it's too late!
Not that I don't like raisins. But I do hope you get my point, What happened to our
culture? Don't get me wrong. I love our Pinoy pride and spirit that perseveres and
works hard towards achieving our dreams and goals.
But what I don't like is this blight that has been slowly creeping in to be content of
mediocrity than to strive for excellence. To endure injustice and stay silent instead
of standing up against it. The only way for evil to triumph, is for the righteous to
remain silent. I don't claim to be righteous. And I do fear for my safety, But should I
remain silent after all the evil and corruption I've come to know?
We all have our own favorite childhood superhero they live everyday life just like
everyone else - blending in society and at the same time, they serve justice in their
trademark costumes and masks, But why? Why the need for a mask If you're doing
what's right?
Have you also noticed that in these stories, a lot of their enemies would
nonchalantly cause wreck and havoc in full view of the public?
My mind was blown as my eyes were opened to reality.
Of course I'm not saying I'm going to be a hero or a "seigi no mikata" coz for some
reason, you only become a hero in our country when you're DEAD.
So no thanks. I'll just be a troll who has an identity crisis and If one day I would find
myself in trial I'd tell the judge: "I swear to Troll the Truth and nothing but the Truth
So help me God."
This is my story.
I knew there was money in stocks. But I had this mindset that it was just for Rich
people. And I don't come from a rich family.
I was a graduating student, The words Job, Money and Future have been always a
point of pressure to me. I was waiting for my internship, and going abroad was the
most 'sensible' course of action for everyone that time, even now I guess. Maybe
that's just our culture.
I started my search, I was like sponge and believed almost everything the 'experts'
said, I never missed reading the business section of the newspapers, and I followed
almost every forum personality that was known to be an expert in their field of the
markets and because of this, I was able to ride a few good stocks.
Losing in stocks is like having a bad relationship you want to end, But for some
sentimental reason, you just can't Because... Yeah Right...And soon, you find
yourself drained mentally and physically by all the emotional baggage,. You could
have let go and ended it. But no! You think to yourself, But it's already too late." Or
"There's still hope!"
The feeling of making money out of money in just a short amount of time was
magical.I felt like I could conquer the world. Finding a job? Who needs one if you
can earn all you want in stocks. Of course I needed to Graduate first. There's that
unspoken rule of Philippine culture that you need to graduate so people would know
you're worth something when they see your diploma hanging on the sala wall. And
of course to make your parents proud.
I realized that I was just lucky. Beginner's luck? Maybe, but the little gains I made
from my jackpot trades were enough to start a passion for Trading.
Fundamentals
I guess everybody starts out as a fundamentalist, We always want the 'sure thing.'
"A solid company that has lasted for years, A strong balance sheet, A good track
record, etc."
So who wouldn't buy that shit? I don't like reading books, especially doing
computations. I'm too lazy for that.
So I figured it would be easier to have the experts do all the work, give them a day
or two, and they'll show you everything you need to know. There's even tons of
stocks fundamental research material out there if you know where to find it.
Whenever a friend would start asking about the stock market, I would immediately
find myself trying to mimic how and what the experts say.
I've held on to many fundamentally sound stocks and ask myself "why the
hell am I not getting enough?" or "why are these solid stocks going south if they're
THAT SOLID?"
Have you ever had a known and respected market personality give you a tip? Or
perhaps a juicy rumor about a certain stock that's "about to explode?" How about
market buddies who tell you they've got real inside info? - you know, disclosures
that haven't been properly released to the public.
Who wouldn't want to be ahead of the markets? and because of this desire, I
immersed myself in looking for allies who knew something about the insides of the
market.
At some point, I even became a hardcore, blind follower of some market gurus - to
the point of going "All In" on whatever stock they say is good. In the beginning, it
was good. The feeling of being ahead of everyone, outwitting even those seasoned
players gave off a different 'high' - that feeling that you're part of some elite class
and society.
I found myself ahead alright. Losing ahead and getting stuck before anyone else.
Whether we like it or not, our market has a certain degree of manipulation, insider
trading, front running, or whatever you may want to call it.
Yes I have some buddies who might have access to these contraband goodies. But
after careful thinking, how am I sure the info they pass around is legit and not
something fabricated out of one's imagination? Only God knows.
Techs
This was my reaction the first time I peered into the world of techs, I hated math and
physics. And techs made me remember all those bitter, cold nights i spent studying
in high school and college.
It was like teaching a kindergarten student (me) quantum physics or some complex
math equation because of the terminologies and other stuff.
"Dude. Seriously. Why do I see more alphabets than numbers?"
But what intrigued my naive mind the most about techs was the consistency of
profits some people claim to have. I personally know someone who hasn't touched
I've been a gamer all my life. And Gaming was an innate craft I had then I thought
to myself, "This could be a nice game." But learning the game was a real challenge.
I almost gave up after experiencing many losses. But in the end, as what many
gamers would say..."G.G."
I noticed that a lot of people actually consider having a "career" in trading. To those
who answered, thank you for your time - your entries are duly noted.
There were those who answered 50-100k, 3M, and even a whopping 8 Figures.
Nothing wrong with those numbers.
But Yes, to be on the philosophical safe side, the answer depends on your
personal lifestyle.
Example
This is how my monthly budget looks. I consume a lot less, I guess around 16-18k.
I'm not much of a spender, I stay home most of the time, and since I'm province
based, living expenses are cheap compared to the big cities.
And just for sample's sake, here's my "made up" projected budget when my port
gets reset by the end of this month.
For those of you who just tuned in to my blog, Every 3 or 6 months, I press the reset
button on my trading port and it goes back to its original port size which is 2M.
If no profits have been made, no withdrawals will be made and poor ZF will have to
live on cup noodles and the emergency fund until the trading port yields gains and
improves on the next reset.
A lot answered 100k Capital. So let's see how that goes and how it will affect my
current Budget.
To maintain my monthly "lifestyle" I'll have to at least make 25% A MONTH! Now
That's crazy and full of pressure.
Di pa kasama yung "enjoying profits" area jan and some existing commitments
I have won't be supported or would be "short sa budget."
So how about those who say, 500k Capital is the way to go?
In this example, let's assume I'm a family man living in the big city, got kids and a
wife to support and I'll need to get 100k of profits (+20k bonus) every month to
sustain my family.
20% A month. And that 4% only gave a small boost, Still a High number, budget
screwed and is definitely NOT Sustainable.
I can imagine the look on people's faces when they've reached their target and got
wiped out in a single trade because of the pressure to have "more"
After discussing with my students on the subject, the majority agreed that 5% is the
"minimum" target one should gain in a month on his or her overall port that isn't too
stressful to maintain as long as a system is in place and assuming trading
consistency is achieved.
Now let's try ZF the Family Man with 3M Capital, Living in the big city, with a wife
and kids and a more balanced Budget.
A +3.33% monthly target is not that hard right? and that extra +1.67% or 50k pretty
much gets you somewhere fancy for some R&R.
Here's a link to that spreadsheet If you wish to do some tweaking of your own and If
you haven't reached your ideal Port Size yet, then dream big and work hard for it.
Because one day, hopefully, You will. I did.
They advance and lead the way to more destruction because that's how they are.
But little did they know of what lies beyond.
A worthy adversary. Lying in wait for the perfect moment the bears let their guard
down.
Swift, mighty, and just like the bears, they are many. for the enemy.
Without fear they pounce.For this is their destiny.
But the bears never forget they are Patiently, they wait, as the bulls were.
For the moment they reclaim their honor
and seize their destiny.
But after some time in the markets, this ideal, has proved
to be an illusion.
Yes it looks cool and all. But it's bulky, expensive, adds to
your electric bill, and when you're going on vacation, you
can't bring it with you. (you can but it's gonna cost and will
require much effort)
Most of us in ZFT
once believed that
mastery of many
indicators would
mean being a
master of profits...
Armed with a sniper rifle, a sidearm, a high explosive grenade, two flash-bangs, and
has body armor, Wipes out 5 armed terrorists.
Soldier B
Armed with a pistol, has body armor, but only uses his knife,
Wipes out 5 armed terrorists.
Even if you have the right tools, the right filters and screeners, If you don't know
HOW to use them correctly, then what's the point?
Even when it comes to port management. Having too much stocks means having
your performance 'divided.'
I've witnessed a lot of traders having monster gains with a few stocks but ended up
break-even or worse with their many losing positions.
Now let's go back to that ideal trading desk shall we? Imagine if this was your port.
and making that much sitting behind one laptop while on vacation.
I don't know about you, but that sounds more bad-ass, than sitting behind a
multiple-monitor trading desk the whole day with the same amount of gains.
If there's one thing technology has taught us, it's this... Convenience
Less is More.
There's just something special about trading. You just can't go through the day without it.
You itch to trade even if it's a weekend. You sometimes loathe weekday holidays.
You don't really have to do it, but there's a certain 'high' you feel whenever you make a
winning trade. And that feeling drives you to make more trades.
You think to yourself "How will I be able to make money if I DON'T trade?" Commission
loss isn‟t that bad... Right?
Adultery
Fundamentals or Technicals.
You've gone a long way with these two. Both of them tell you the very things you want to
hear. And for that, you love them dearly.
You reach the crossroads. You're at a loss. They can't mix. And you're allowed to choose,
but only one.
"Love transcends all." You confidently tell them., Oh what a fool you are. But you're willing
to be a fool just So you could be with them both.
Gluttony
Don't you just wish you could trade EVERY stock that went up? They want to trade every
stock leaves your port in such diversity that you can't make decent returns. But that doesn't
bother you.
Instead of focusing on a few conviction picks, you just want it all. When a stock you're
eyeing goes up, you feel empty and left out.
"I knew it!" you blurt out. You tell your friends you saw it coming. They say the same. Even
their deceased grandfathers saw it coming.
But were you able to buy? No. You then continue to buy the next potential 'bagger' you see.
Greed
Sloth
The citizens of certain stock market groups are you biggest assets.
"Why do you need to work hard, invest, or study when you can ask the experts for free?"
You proudly tell your stock buddies while recommending your best group find.
Wrath
You completely sold down a certain stock to its low for the day and vowed to sell your dog if
you ever trade it again.
"Hah!" You exclaim in delight as you think that it's all over for that stock.
It rallies the following day covering all loses it made for the whole week. You look at your
dog. Your dog looks back.
"I was just joking." You say softly A complete whipsaw. It hurt as hell.
You once more look into the eyes of your loving dog, and say
"I'm the hero you need. But not the one you deserve."
You know you shouldn't, but something tells you that you need to.
The Batdog Trader Rises.
Envy
You wonder why several of your friends are all in high spirits.
They show you gains you've never seen before. You want what they have. And you want it
bad!
They tell you to join in. Cause it's gonna be the next big thing.
You've heard this many times before. You know it's not.
But you say to yourself "This time, it's different."
Pride
Ever.
I particularly, am a person with big dreams. I am not a rich person. Nor is my family. And by
this, I mean that even if we combine all our assets and work our asses off, we won't even
reach 12M PHP worth. And by judging my capacity, the culture, the connections and the
opportunities around me, I have safely concluded that it wouldn't be feasible to attain my
dreams on my preferred retirement age of 30, if I'd follow our world's system of living.
Side note: Some "shortcuts" were plausible, but since I am a person groomed with morals
and integrity, I have chosen to uphold the law.
In my years of seeking financial freedom and handling money, I have gotten myself into
different kinds of jobs and tested financial laws and systems. Tried the very basic of jobs,
you may even call some demeaning. Tried to work overseas, networking, call centers,
direct selling, teaching in schools, etc. Many of course were failures, a few were decent,
and some were ordinary.
And of course, you already know how stocks have been to me "So what's your secret Zee?"
Now just to set the record and my credentials, I have no proper financial education. Zero.
None. Nada. I didn't read (or at least didn't finish reading) ANY financial books - too lazy to
do that. Unless of course you'd count my subjects in college in Accounting and Economics
101. LOL.
Now as to my secret, I would just love to say it's all me and my superior intellect. But it isn't.
It's God's wisdom, Say wuuut? You heard that right. And I know I'm so deep, I can see
Adele Rolling.
But out of all the systems I've tried, God's principles and laws on finances have proven to
be far superior than any lawful human system I've gotten into.
This is weird for me to write this stuff on my blog as well. But hell I'll write it because even
though ZF is fictional, the God ZF serves are not. I wouldn't be writing this in the first place
if all I get is hateful mocking from unbelievers and haters.
Let me put it this way. Intellect is when you are able to solve and pass complex physics shit
with flying colors. Wisdom is being able to teach that same shit to a kid who's about to start
grade school.
In the world of stocks I'm the grade schooler and God, my teacher.
Human as I am, I tend to put a schedule on things, especially when it comes to money -
and when it doesn't go my way, I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be discouraged. But you know
what? When God promises, He definitely delivers. And it's even mind blowing when the
'package' you receive exceeds your expectations.
God is no Genie nor a Quick Fix to your problems. Know your place.
A few days ago, I have taken up a NEW challenge. A testing if you may of one of God's
principles and laws in finances. This would be my first of this kind. This isn't really the usual
thing of the tithe, regular offerings, or charity works, but since it's biblical, then let's do this.
I've already set aside my budget until my next "special" reset on October. And I have no
idea where I'll get that 6 figure I pledged by the end of September. Subasta funds will not go
to this pledge. So It'll be one hell of a miracle especially in this kind of effed up market
sentiment.
Somewhere in the bible, there's this law and promise... and this is one of the things I
continually hold on to as I surrender my finances to the person "up there" and take up this
new challenge.
I'm pretty sure this post has to do with someone who has the same calling as mine... I'd just
love to hear your story.
And if there's one thing this post will prove, it's how someone ordinary will be doing
extraordinary things, not because of his own strength and intellect, but because of a God of
extremes - who btw, also calls out to YOU... to bring you to your destiny.
Consistency that goes with profitability is what makes a good trading system.
So what then is the right trading system?
The amazing thing about almost every market is that there are certain fundamental, but
different trading systems that co-exist and compliment or even kill each other to form this
unique and dynamic environment. Like a desert filled with creepies trying to outsmart and
eat one another for survival.
Like animals, every trader is different. And the only way for us to be able to maximize our
kills in the market is if we focus on developing our strengths rather than our weaknesses.
Or hunt when the environment is in favor to our physique.
Another common mistake traders make is experimenting or using a fine tuned system on
trade setups that don't exactly fit.
For example, a player who buys for the bounce. The trader buys at the lows, and the
position matures to a whopping +20%. BUT the trader decides to HOLD it for "long term"
Because his entry price was the perfect long term price.
A shift in play has occurred and in a few months all his gains get eaten up by the
downtrend....And the trader now becomes an "Investor"
Trading systems are ways of life. I say ways of life because there is no one system that is
consistent in all kinds of market sentiments. There will always be a system that will
thrive or starve for each season.
Yep. And by the time you checked and continued reading this post, your port just got
slaughtered by a fundie on a sell rampage.
Let's continue....
A system will most likely be profitable if it is used by a big chunk of players who have the
'controlling' funds in a certain market and yes market anomalies and deviations will pop up
from time to time. You'd see multiple ceiling plays or super plays like CAL (IPO craze) and
MBC (Multiple Ceilings) But you don't see them sustained over a longer period of time.
Like the bunch of people you see in FB who post about their port snapshots and open to
public trading performance 'diaries' when they get lucky. Then a few months later you won't
find a single trace of their presence.
#PABEBEpamore.
That's why it is important to study and trade popular patterns that the market has deemed
worthy of existence.They aren't there just for show.
All those sleepless nights of charting and backtesting. All the stress filled days of test
trading.
The discipline you nurtured
The persistence despite your losses.
The passion
Your principles and character
Your dreams of the future.
All these make up that holy grail, All these make up a successful trading system.
So if you still haven't found your system, go get your shit together and Beast mode ON!
It's a bull market. Everything works, But what happens when the bears visit the town?
Many traders and investors would find their methodologies tested during this phase. It's a
time where you find out what works best and what doesn't.
I've heard countless stories of people and their experiences. How they gained big or small
but lost more. I would find their system and approach good. Be it a fundamental or technical
approach, it would usually be a system that is well toiled and thought of what went wrong?
The most important thing people forget when treading and trading the markets is the
mindset. A system based on fundamentals or technicals in its purest form is just sets of "if,
then, else" statements.
example:
Simple right?
Either of the two works, that is... if you use the right approach and No.
you can't choose Ereudite.
Is it normal to lose in stocks? Yes, This is the hard truth of the markets. From market
veterans to newbies, everybody loses.
Talk to those who worked as brokers and they'll tell you how unfair the world is, But majority
would easily accept a 6-7 digit loss because that's how the norm is. And there's a ridiculous
culture of embracing this truth instead of fighting it.
Like when you fail in your tests and immediately look for your "buddies", but while
everybody has their fair share of losses, not everybody stay as losers.
Allow me take you to another wonderful experience in appreciating renaissance art and the
truths of the stock market.
Today, I'd like to talk about the Common Deadly Mindsets that Traders Commit.
You buy 100k Shares of Stock A for P0.10 Instead of Buying 1,000 Shares of Stock B for
P10. A lot of people fall for this one early in the game. Buying one stock over the other
because it looks cheap price-wise.
Next day, NIKL rallies and FNI fizzles. Your FNI's worth is now
almost a hundred less, If you only chose the more "expensive"
NIKL you'd have gained five hundred more.
So what's the point of you having millions of shares on a stock, but fails to show you a
profit? It's just showing off without having real substance. #realtalk
Now a lot of people would also dismiss the idea of buying at All Time Highs (ATH) because
of statements like "I've never seen this stock this expensive before!"
I'm guessing some of these people have been telling that to URC since the 20s.
I hate to break it down to you buddy but the stock market ain't like the Malls.
The reality is, there is no such thing as a cheap or expensive stock, Only Winning or Losing
stocks.
The non acceptance of a loss. This is the most common phrase you will hear when people
cannot accept a loss. It's a way of fooling yourself to the reality that you lost your hard
earned money - and that if you go long term, you'll be fine.
A lot of people would use the W. Buffet quote to defend their paper losses:
Well guess what? You aren't lolo Buffet who was already a #richkid when he said that and
this is usually the root cause of the next Deadly Mindset..
While this strategy works fine with those with lots of money, it isn't necessarily so with those
with just a few. If you have less than 50M in buying power, why would you buy the down
trend when you can buy trending stocks that would actually grow your money? You don't
have to always suffer first before you make profits and so whenever you feel like buying a
down trending stock, may you always remember this image:
Now what happens when you combo the last two deadlies?
Have you ever had losses that reached more than -30% in your port? Painful right?
You also believe whatever the Gurus say even though you know deep within yourself that
what they say is crap.
You had a lot of opportunities to cut your losses. So why didn't you?
I'm pretty sure your losses didn't grow as it is overnight, It's hard to swallow a loss. But
what's harder to swallow is your pride and ego. If you only admitted that you were wrong,
non of these terrible things would happen.
So cut when it's still early and remember: your pride, ego, and laziness won't feed you.
To end this post, they say 99% of the people who traded and invested in the stock market
lose. And only 1% thrive.
So If you want to be part of that 1%, then don't do what the 99% is doing.
Sometimes it scares me when I'm able to shut down my emotions when trading. When I win
or lose to the extreme, like you know (6-7 Figures) in a day, and it doesn't faze me one bit.
And there are times when I think that if I've fully integrated the system completely in my life,
I might come to a point wherein my relationships and the people I meet would just be like
stock-picks. That If a relationship goes bad, I'd simply "cut my losses" and move on. Or If a
relationship doesn't go anywhere, I'd just sell and realize my "commission losses."
Last night I was able to talk to a few traders. They told me their story about how their group
were hyped into buying a stock, got ipit, and are just waiting for it to go up. They've been
holding the stock for almost a year. And a beautiful bond was created.
I was once In a trading group and had multiple experiences like this.
The root cause of all of this, why people in a group-buy don't sell and move on, isn't
because of the stock or the hype - But the trust that was built in the corporate decision of
buying the particular stock.
These are the phrases you commonly hear when you group-buy-and-hold a stock.
If a stock is going down (or up) and you sold earlier without notifying or consenting with
your group, there's fear that you have betrayed the goodwill of what your group started. You
feel like if you sell, the relationship with your group, your bond, might somehow be broken.
But this is the stock market. Not life. It's your money, not their's. We have to understand that
we are responsible for our own actions, So if you decide to sell. Don't feel guilty. "Cut loss
lang. Walang personalan." We should draw a clear line. A distinction of the realities of Life
and Investments.
And even if I say that Trading is a lot like life. It isn't so that we should cut loss our non
performing or losing relationships. For these things should be cherished and worked out.
I thank God for keeping me sane. That even If I have lost hundreds of thousands and even
millions, I can still give praise and appreciate the little things in life.
"Ano kaya alam ni DEUTSCHE that we don't? Insider siguro to! Wala namang bibili ng
ganyan karami tapos papalugi lang."
These were the things my speculative mind dwelt on during my early years as a trader.
Broker analysis. It was such a fun thing to do back then. I felt like I was some kind of
detective looking for clues as to where the big mafia boss would strike next.
It gave me added conviction as to whether I would buy, hold or sell.
"Holding pa si TOWER, I'll sell when they sell." "Ayan nanaman VENTURE the tsupitero!
Ingat na!""Daming COL bumili. Time to sell."
I always focused on who was buying and didn't pay much detail as to who was selling.
It's funny when I think about it now.
Then one day, somebody told me about these... "pasaload" moves - where a client can
move his or her shares to another broker overnight with less than a hundred bucks.
I was dumbfounded.
(well not really everything but for the most of it, yes.)
I could still remember my dismay as I walked out of the room and verbally abused my cat. It
was such a waste of precious time and energy.
I remembered all the setups I missed for fear of who was selling and all the trap setups I
bought because of following who was buying.
I was a fool.
So what if brokers and clients are selling at a loss? It's not my money. For all we know they
might be just newbies with lots of money to burn. And you definitely don't want to follow
those people. Maybe that's why they call it Broker analysis? Because at some point, you
might just go Broke.
But after much study and getting my shit together, there was relief. Raw data in the charts
proved that it was enough. That there was no need for me to study who's buying or selling.
Be it brokers with big foreign names or a group of retail COL clients or traders, and whether
market makers and operators exist or not, well...
It won't matter. Because those cute candles are all I need.
#DEUTSCHEisSellingPaMore! #PHOTOSHOP
PS : I would like to apologize to my blog readers for my previous posts that had broker
analysis in it. I won't be deleting or editing those posts for me and for future readers to see
how my journey went
Are you tired of people asking you for a stock's TP or maybe you yourself are tired of asking
others for stock TPs? Whatever reason you may have, Fear not.
*There are many variations as to how TPs are calculated. But this is the basic template we
use in ZFT.
Most public participants would usually pick stocks that are the talk of the town. Hot stocks
that rally like there's no tomorrow. Or probably stocks that were once hot and trying to get
back to the limelight.
Assuming market interest has died down but the stock still has good trade potential, look for
the recent and immediate support and resistance levels.
For this example, we take 2.63 as the immediate resistance and 2.04 as the immediate
support.
There have been many instances wherein the TP gets hit exactly
at
the sweet spot. But there are also times when the prices
overshoots or don't even reach the intended TP price.
Example:
If I had 300k Shares on ION, I would sell in 3 Equal Tranches at 100k each.
1st Tranche Sell: Low End Buffer (3.09)
2nd Tranche Sell: High End Buffer (3.35)
3rd Tranche Sell: At Target Price (3.22)
If I had more shares, I'd have more tranches.
And depending on a trader's perspective, this could be true or false. It may be a reversal on
the very short term, but what about the long term?
I'm not bashing. I'm just tired of the people messaging me their sad stories of how they've
lost their hard earned money for believing "credible" sources.
Remember FNI? The ulols have been calling a reversal on it since the 2.xx levels. Halos
lahat na ng hype analysis, ginamit fundamentals, All kinds of technical patterns, Candlestick
analysis, Broker analysis, Kwentong Barbero Analysis, "Reverse Chart" etc.
Where is it now?
And when the damage has been done, they'll just give you that "you pressed that button"
BS and hand you all the blame.
If the teacher taught something wrong, should the student shoulder all the blame?
It's amazing how gurung ulols have successfully brainwashed the public so they'd come out
clean after several disaster calls.
So if you're just starting out as a trader and planning to buy MCP because of all the
"reversal" posts you're reading in FB groups.
Be wary.
Imagine a jungle with a wide spectrum of animals and plants. If you take away one sector in
the animal or plant kingdom, a great imbalance would happen over time.
For example, if you take away the reptiles you can find in that jungle, most especially to the
snakes since most of the human race just hates or fears them - a rodent problem would
likely arise.
For there would be one less family to balance things out.
An explosion of the rodent populace would mean devastating consequences to any life form
that these cute and furry beings have taken a liking to. And this would lead to the
weakening or destruction of the kingdoms that interact with the rodent's meal - be it a plant,
an insect, or whatever these things can sink their little sharp teeth on.
The eco-system where you put all the damned snakes wouldn't be happy as well.
The rodents would obviously be happy. But only for a time. Once there's no more food for
them, they too will suffer.
Side comments: Looking back at that food web, baboons are pretty bad ass for eating
snakes. And I had no idea skunks eat birds. Now I‟m not even sure if this is accurate after
googling. I am currently mind effed.
These are the three Kingdoms in the stock market ecosystem that bring forth balance. Take
one out, and everyone suffers in one way or another.
If everybody were fundamentalists, we'd probably have no 3rd liner plays and we'll have a
really slow market since no one would be buying until the next quarterly report. Just
imagine the tension build up.
If there were no speculators, we'd have a hard time looking for super stocks and that's why
you should always thank those who are on the other side of the trade or those who have a
different trading system than yours. I myself have great respect for Gurung ulols, tipsters,
rumor mongers, crowd herders and even those "feeling-jockey" groups. They are my
Heroes. For without them, I'd have no one to sell my shares to. They die for my sake and
occasionally If things don't do well with me on a trade, I return the favor.
There could be times when one race would reign superior, but nature always finds a way to
balance things out. Remember the CAL millionaires? Where are most of them now? How
about the JAP Lovers? The FNI boys? are most of them still alive and kicking? Some
monkey out there is probably well off and doing a better job and while all living things
created are different in some way or another, they have these things in common:
Birth - The need to interact with their own kind or to other species. The need to consume.
The need to rest.
Death - These are important patterns. If you're a hunter, you don't go in for the kill when
your target is on full alert. You execute when they are at their weakest and you wait for that
perfect moment.
It's the same with stocks and their cycles. So think of stocks as different kinds of animals
with unique behavior patterns. They get introduced to the ecosystem, interact with the
players, they make weak and strong trends, up, down, sideways then back again and
maybe at one point, just cease to be significant and die.
and you are a hunter It is your job to either kill for meat
or capture and domesticate.
The problem with most traders and investors is the lack of conviction. Maybe conviction to
their capacity as a person, to the tool or weapon they use, which is their trading system.
Most come into the markets not realizing what's ahead. They come unprepared and
defenseless. It's a jungle out there. And everything in it wants to eat or destroy you.
This lack of confidence is what destroys them for what is an excellent trading system or a
weapon in the hands of a coward? Sometimes I contemplate If I should just keep my
trading systems to myself and to the people I've taught. I fear not being outclassed in my
own system and my kind of game. I don't want to be selfish or anything but I fear the
consequences of having something powerful wielded by idiots. I can just imagine the horror
of having a perfect chart destroyed because of the lack of patience and poor execution. If
there's one thing nature has taught us, It's Balance.
There are days when i wake up in the morning late, like 9AM and feel the want to work and
dress up like a proper gentleman with a suit and tie, but then i go "what the hell" ...then end
up just wearing the tie #buhaytrader #nakedtrading
Trading is a craft that pays a lot when mastered and Full time traders are a mystery to
many. Aside from being a fraction of a fraction in the general populace, civilians don't see
them much, and when traders do show up in public, some don't talk much about their
trading lives. Maybe some people do. I don't know.
So what's it like being a full time trader? I am but one sample. So don't take my word for
what you are about to read. Here are my top pros and cons of going full time in this
industry.
No schedules. No deadlines.
Imagine all the trips! The leaves you can take and you get to decide when to take a break
from that break!
Bliss. You get to do what you want, when you want and that is the kind of freedom almost
everybody wants.
(Pros) # 2 - You can work anywhere as long as you have internet and your
workstation (or smartphone).
No constant external and annoying force telling you to finish something before the deadline
- then adds more load to the pile of course there's that pressure from within, telling you to
earn, and to trade. But that's a whole lot better than a naggy, bossy boss right?
It even gets awesome when you hit your personal profit quota that's good for months or
even a year.
Yes you've got the freedom to do whatever you want at any time. How is it bad you ask?
Well, you get used to it and it gets boring after a while. At some point you'll be surprised
when one day you find out that you actually HATE holidays and moments when the markets
are closed for some reason.
Your friends and family would think you've gone crazy for loving Mondays and hating
Fridays. But that's just how it is with you. It's your passion. You just can't wait to trade.
I've already mentioned in my previous posts how lazy I am that instead of investing or doing
something worthwhile, I tend to procrastinate. Of course, studying charts, patterns, and
back testing are all part of my daily routine. But What else are you going to do with all that
time that's not market related?
Being lazy in this industry can be devastating to one's health and lifestyle.
There were times in my trading life when I'd just sleep after trading hours.
Maybe play one PC game, browsing Facebook, unproductively surf the net, watch a whole
set of TV series then repeat the whole cycle next day and as for exercise?
There was a season in my trading life when the time and effort I spent walking from my
trading room to the kitchen, to the dining area to have my meal, then back to my room was
my "form" of exercise.
WAS! Alright Alright. Sometimes it still is and you'll have so much wealth in your port,
it will spill over to your body as well!
I tried to gamify my life and at one point, i finally reached the "Bio-Armor" achievement - by
not taking a bath for 5 days.
Uhgr. I might say more things I'd regret... The point is, you have to pull yourself together
and make an effort to develop good habits, proper time management and discipline.
After a while, it gets lonely this is my main frustration as a trader. I feel like nobody
understands me. The experience of gaining and losing in the market is just too hard to
comprehend for the average person who has little to no idea on how the markets work.
I've got no boss, so I can hardly relate anymore to civilian boss related rants and jokes.
If ever I pull one out, they'd just brush it off since they've heard it like a thousand times
already.
When I try to reach and hang out with my non-stocks buddies, It's different. I've got time.
They don't. And this becomes a big issue. The trips I want to take, the length, and how I
take it has become so different, you'd instantly become the odd one out.
I guess it's kind of better because It doesn't kill off your relationships the fast way like some
networking "businesses" do.
#FRIENDSHIPOVER
Fitting in society would be one heck of a challenge. I have learned not to demand from my
civilian friends. Because sometimes when I do, I get that "Oh I'm sorry we're not like you!"
card.
I believe trading the markets is one of the most strenuous things a person can do. Not only
will you have to work hard burning the late night candle, but you will also have to sacrifice a
lot - even some relationships. It is definitely not for the weak. But to those are brave enough
to accept the consequences and challenges of taking this path. The rewards are truly
fulfilling - that is, if you survive.
A few weeks ago I started accumulating a potential super play with its setup and liquidity
and everything else taken into consideration, I decided to go for the trade.
ALL IN.
Of course It wouldn't be all in one day. Certain parameters must be set and confirmed. We
enter a trade because we believe it will show us a profit. But even with a bullish bias, I keep
a level mind before I enter, I know my stops.
Unfortunately for me today, the market has spoken against my bias and I listen.
If the stock rallies and I get whipped, it's fine. I can always buy back.
Trading is like war It does not determine who is right... only who is left.
It's been 5 solid years since I started active trading. And as I look back to all that I've been
through - the memories of all the good and bad experiences, it still feels as if it's not
enough, and that I know nothing.
There are days when I wake and think "How the hell did I got this far?" I wasn't a full time
trader when I started and as I an idealist, it was hard to live in a corrupted world.
I remember my strong distaste for having a job and working for bosses and supervisors that
disregarded excellence, progress and innovation. It saddened me when I saw the people in
power, tripping and bullying those who were weak. I know how it feels to be weak and I
wanted to be a defender. A hero. But it always broke my heart when I was deemed wrong
and had to suffer the consequences whenever I tried standing up to evil.
I guess that was one of the reasons that pushed me to where I am now. I swore that time
not bow down to anyone but God. Trading was the perfect escape.
I was naive. So I Borrowed trading money and took the leap of faith. (I DO NOT RECOMMEND YOU DO THIS)
There were seasons when I lost a lot and almost went crazy. Just imagine borrowing 4
Million and Lose 3M+, then all of a sudden the people who you borrowed from (who by the
way, don't know each other) would ask for their money at the same time but looking at how
things went, I know that I had to go through that terrible experience for a reason.
I got to know and experience that there really is a God out there that it wasn't just tradition
or religion.
I got to understand who I was, that I had purpose in life to inspire others. (Naiinspire nga ba
kayo?) To set an example. A standard and be a testimony of God's love and principles, I
look at some of my trades and go
"Meh."
But deep inside I understand that it is by God's power and principles that I am able to pull
off trades beyond the average trader. For I know very well who I am - that I do not always
have the patience nor the discipline.
"If God won't save me on this ordeal, I'll just have my favorite food for the rest of the year -
or the rest of my life lang naman." of course I would be lying If I said I didn't have my
doubts.
"Honor the Lord with your wealth and with the best part of everything you produce. Then He
will fill your barns with grain, and your vats will overflow with good wine."
What BS is this?
Common sense would tell us that it is always better to receive than to give. Giving is an
honorable act. But who in their right mind thinks giving is better than receiving? But I tell
you, try the principle above and you'll be surprised.
Tithing or surrendering 10% of what you have to God can do wonders Imagine What God
can do if you act in faith and give more. I guess sooner or later we'll end up like William
Colgate.
Not sure how I'll end this post. So I will just share what happened several nights ago when
we had an open chat with non ZFT Traders. We had a great time. I had a great time and
after all the technical and personal questions people had, one student asked me this:
"To be a master of one's emotions and to risk not just for one's own benefit but for
others."
-Love ZF
Money is the root of all evil they say, but it is not. For Money is neutral.
It is the Love of Money that is the root of all evil.
A few days ago a friend and I were walking along the street and we saw this 50-peso bill
that was within our reach. "Uy may 50 pesos oh!" But we continued walking and let the bill
get blown by the wind. We laughed.
That moment made me realize how much I have changed and how much has been
provided for me - to the point that it felt like I was drowning in divine provision. God wasn't
joking when He said...
"Bring the whole tithe into the storehouse, that there may be food in my house. Test me in
this," says the Lord Almighty, "and see if I will not throw open the floodgates of heaven and
pour out so much blessing that there will not be room enough to store it."
"What are you going to do with all that money zee?" I was, and I still am in deep thought on
the matter. Yes it is a blessing. But it also has become a burden.
And so I constantly seek wisdom as to how I will become a good steward of my talents and
this resource.
I got to chat with my friends and they talk about their problems about how they're not being
treated well at work, their struggles of not being able to save or just not having enough by
the end of the day.
I see some people working and giving to charity and how a lot of the poor say they need
money and all these resources so they could finally get out of poverty.
I wish I could help. And I wish money was the key to solve all these problems. But it isn't.
Even if you give away a million in cash, the poor will stay poor unless they change their way
of thinking. And a trader or investor will constantly lose money if their mindsets in trading or
investing is wrong.
I remember giving good amounts of cash to a few people when they needed help. And
sadly, my giving turned out to be a curse to them. Because after a period of time, they
became dependent. I might have destroyed their lives. I hope not. And so I have learned
when to give and when to withhold.
This week has been hard on me. Melancholy has hit me out of nowhere. Maybe I've spent
too much time with myself that I got to reflect a lot about life.
Trading is my passion. But it has become boring for me. Like that feeling of completing and
being the strongest character in a game where all the creeps are killed with a single blow.
At some point all the fun is gone.
The year is just starting and I've already reached my quota for 2016. My trading port is now
1.7M+ bigger and there's still 11 months.
And all this money I have has probably desensitized me from my simple pleasures like
food, gadgets and cute stuff. Have my standards raised without me noticing it? I live a
pretty simple life as opposed to what a lot of you might think. But the things I considered
special have now become normal to me. If I wanted something, I'd just say "Isang Tsupita
lang yan." Oh the arrogance.
I have carefully evaluated myself and understand the need for me to exercise restraint and
for me to once again connect and relate with civilians. My contact with other humans has
become too minimal this month. And being ZF has put me in an awfully weird position.
People expect me to do things and act a certain way. I simply want to be an anonymous
troll enlightening people to the truth and exposing bullshit when needed. And I am not some
cold hearted Klingon warrior that feels nothing - I have feelings too.
Gaining insights from the wisest man who walked the earth in the book of Ecclesiastes has
pushed a lot of my buttons these days. I felt like the dude was my best friend for a moment.
Yes. Money can buy a lot of things, but It certainly can't buy lasting happiness and
contentment - even if you do honorable things like give all your money to the poor or do
good works. For There's a constant void in every one of us...
So I was just peacefully watching my Agents of Shield episode while waiting for this day to
be over when suddenly out of the blue someone sent me this:
This is how brokers and other smart asses try to sell you their dope in this kind of market
sentiment.
No matter how long you have been in the markets, if you cannot grasp this simple truth, you
will lose.
Update 1.19.2016
use.
Remember, ZFT always remembers those who speak
truth or lies of us. We're watching you.
You are the most fearless archer in the whole village. You wander around the woods to
hunt the evil that lurks in it. You have found your target, a tiger. The foul beast that has
been killing all the villager's animals and your beloved turkey that you have so dearly taken
care of for the coming winter.
You approach silently and pull out your dagger from your side pocket. The mighty tiger
knows what's going on and motions its tail as if beckoning you closer to its presence.
You breathe deeply as you prepare to strike. When suddenly, the tiger disappears from
your sight! You then notice the painful warmth of your own blood gushing from your neck as
the beast delivers a critical bite that ends you instantly.
What the hell were you thinking archer!? You had one job and you used the dagger!
Some of you have been wondering why the hell I do resets and have 3 different ports. Let
me explain.
I'm a gamer and I look at the markets as a game. If you've played FPS (First Person
Shooter), RPG (Role Playing Games), RTS (Real Time Strategy, or TBS (Turn Based
Strategy) games like Team Fortress, UFO, Heroes, Final Fantasy, Diablo, Mech
Commander, DOTa, etc, you will notice that there's a wide spectrum of characters and
classes with their unique abilities and skill sets. One class just can't have it all. And every
character has their own set of strengths and weaknesses.
If you're an archer, you attack and kill from afar. You don't go all out rambo knockin' on the
enemy's front door! You play what's given to you and use it to your advantage. So act your
class if you want to survive and stay in the game. If you feel the need to pet that darned
tiger on the head before you kill it, switch to an assassin or a character that can take
extreme punishment.
If you're a tsupitero, handling and growing a port that has 500k is easier than a port that has
2M. The bigger the port, the harder it is for the tsupitero.
If you're a trend follower, you'll probably have no issues with handling a 10M port, But it
wouldn't be easy growing it performance wise as opposed to the tsuptiero.
If you are handling a sleeper port, you need to have extreme patience to endure the times
when you see other stocks moving while your's are sleeping.
When you come to a deep level of understanding of who you are as a person, as a trader -
your strengths and weaknesses, and put this into your advantage when you enter the
markets, you'll be surprised of what you can do.
Starting Equity
(December 29, 2015)
4,303,561.00
Infusions
1,000,000.00
Profit Withdrawals
600,000.00
The game that is the Stock Market is all about following rules and playing the game better
than anyone else.
I remember deciding not to pursue the corporate life and just trade my way out of the rat
race. I was confident and I worked hard for it. I knew this was my calling.
Started with 160k late 2010. Borrowed 2M in 2012. Then Another 2M in 2013. Lost 2.4M in
the process. I knew it wasn't going to be a walk in the park. If it were, it would be like
Jurassic Park.
But I kept going. I Made friends along the way. Made enemies. Burned bridges. Found my
identity as a trader. Found the system that was right for me. Paid off my investors. Bought
them out of my funds. And the rest was history.
Today, my trading port just reached a figure I was only dreaming about years ago. The rest
of my story how I started, the lessons I've learned, the technical notes, up to the present is
all here in my blog for everyone to read. Inspired? Share it. Because if I was able to make
it, why can't you?
"Matthew 6:33
But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness, and all these things shall be
added to you."
Looking for stocks in the Market is like looking for Pets. Sometimes they're pretty ugly.
The downtrend and atmosphere for the past months have conditioned our minds that it is
painfully hard to find those pets that could make us a fortune without giving us nightmares.
And now that ZS and Breakout season is here, you freeze. So many of these good pets
appear but it seems you just can't decide which pets to go for.
"Should I sell DD and buy X? Was it the right decision to sell DAVIN and buy MCP? BHI or
STI? 2GO or IDC?"
So many pets to play with yet so little cash. You get confused and sometimes hurt yourself
in the process of playing with these pets. But the thing is, it doesn't have to be that way.
When you find yourself pressured and wanting to buy EVERY pet that you find adorable, It
could be that you haven't refined your parameters for choosing.
We have more than a hundred pets in our market. How do you filter the ones that would suit
you best? And is your way of life compatible with the pet you are getting? If you have a
confident answer to these questions, the next thing you need to ask is... Will you be
following your rules in picking and handling religiously?
Pets can sure be cute and cuddly and all that, but there are certain consequences you have
to face. Like you know... and that's smelly business right there.
But the reality to all of this is simple. Different pets, Different directives. It isn't really the pet
that needs adapting but YOU. Yes pets can be trained. But animals will be animals. They
have a unique directive that they follow even when they grow all alone without a parent. But
it is different with us humans. We are gifted with the freedom to think and choose our own
directive.
Looking for stocks in the Market is like looking for Pets. Sometimes they're ugly... But if you
know how to handle them properly, you might just be rewarded with a handful of goodies.
This concludes the story of little Angela who wished for a puppy for Xmas but misspelled
"Santa" for "Satan" when she sent that letter.
See what a little mistake can do? I seriously hope this post made sense to you. Did it?
Do you ever have moments when you get depressed over a loss? How about losing your
cool over your stuck that's been consolidating while the rest of the basura sector is flying?
How about not being able to ride that one stock you've already planned because things just
didn't turn out the way you wanted it to?
I believe every trader experience these things. And yes that includes me. It's not like you're
some kind of cold blooded robot that goes into the trading process with sets of algos and "if-
else" executions.
Remember that time in biology class when you learned about a frog's anatomy? Trading is
somewhat like that. You study everything and memorize the difficult terms, then you pass
the written exam with flying colors. "Easy Peasy" You say. Then come the practicals.
You wait for rain and nightfall for that perfect moment to catch these horny little things as
they cry out in the darkness for them to get laid. The first few frogs you get ain't a good find;
So you go on and on until you finally get your slimed hands on the perfect one. "At last! This
better be worth it."
You feed the creature, hoping it survives until D-Day. Poor little thing, you've already
deprived it in a lot of ways imaginable - have you no heart? It didn't even have the chance
to pro-create and leave offspring. Human, what have you done? You start to develop a
weird relationship with the thing.
Opening a live frog in front of your teacher and telling her all you know about the poor little
thing. It doesn't go well as how you imagined it in your mind. Yes you've aced the exams
and all, but going through the process of catching it, keeping it alive, opening it up and
eventually killing it stirs up something in you.
At this moment you realize the difference of knowing versus actually doing it. You
understand that there is a process for things and it might not always be rosy or how you
want it.
When I lose in a trade or miss an opportunity and get bummed by it, I always remind myself
of my trading rules and the basics of my trading system. "Did I do the right thing?"
If you did, then there shouldn't be a problem. It's always about sticking to the truths you've
found and believe. And what is truth you ask? Well, the simple reality of the truth in the
markets is this:
It's just sad when people twist these truths to fit their beliefs. Like you know... "Don't think
and Bodega lang."
For those who don't know who Lolo Livermore is, the guy is considered a rockstar in the
markets and in the field of speculation. In his later years, he had a divorce, went bankrupt
and died a horrible death by suicide. Yep - Not a person you'd like to follow.
I wasn't able to ride DAVIN successfully on it's latest monster rally. When I mean
successful, I mean with volume. (I did get to do tsupitas on it's way up.) Unless you're still
learning a trade setup, what's the point of gaining 10-100% or even more on a position if it's
a measly 5-10% of your portfolio? That's just me though.
I'm frustrated because It was a textbook play in the system - an easy trade. But at the same
time not frustrated as much, since I've already gained a lot from the stock twice for this
quarter. It's just that these things happen and it evokes certain emotions. We just have to
accept that we can't ride 'em all.
One reason why I wasn't able to ride DAVIN with volume was because of a current position
I had - one which I decided to be my conviction play for the next quarter. It's not easy to
hold and wait for an AOTS transition you know, especially when you're a seasoned
basurero and see lots of basuras flying around. I could have sold it for a faster horse and
other quick plays that showed up but that would mean breaking my rules.
But by the end of the day, sticking to one's rules and having consistency is always better
than sheer luck.
We trade the markets in order to reach our goals of financial freedom. We are all in it for the
money. But is money all there to it?
Sometimes I think keeping the tribe's good deeds is the way to go. But is it the right thing to
do? To keep silent? We don't show off RAKs so people would praise us.
There's a continuous moral decay in our society. And it is spreading fast because those
who execute it do so shamelessly in broad daylight. And when people think it's okay to do
evil because "everybody" is doing it anyways, then we create a serious culture problem.
If we want to see a better, brighter future, let us start fighting evil by doing good. By
spreading love. By showing the youth of this generation hope and allowing them to dream.
Let us be loud in creating a culture that pays it forward.
If you wish to say your piece on the matter before you read on, click here.
It's public knowledge that huge funds pour into the ZFT treasury. Lots of rumors have been
spreading as to where it goes. Hopefully, this post will enlighten everyone on the matter.
In ZFT, you keep what you kill. So yes. All the money we amass is divided equally among
the contributing peers and go into our personal pockets. We deserve what we work for.
Period.
But the thing is, in ZFT we exercise free will. We don't force each other to do things we do
not want. Which means, be it for personal gain, or for paying it forward, we use the funds
according to what we believe is right, according to our personal judgement.
And I personally believe having the choice to give away something of value is far more
rewarding and honorable than to be forced to give just because.
There are so many things that we could do together with all the talent in the Tribe. But I
hesitate to ask ZFTs to join me in this culture and cause. Because there is no such thing as
free lunch. When we have tribe projects like the development of Technical Screeners,
Project Seed, and other Tribe Events, it comes with a price. And I'd rather have people
come forward and give out of the abundance of their hearts.
And in this light, I am looking for something sustainable. If you give to charity, you help a
few to several people for a while. But if you partner with people in their businesses with the
same principles as you (and in paying it forward), you not just help the businessman, you
also continuously help the community that receives the RAK.
I would like to re-iterate that I am no businessman. This is not my strength and alone, I
cannot effectively achieve whatever it is that I would like to happen. So If you have a better
Idea and would like to partner with us on this ordeal, you may contact our budget secretary
Robert Sy.
If you think about it, I could just take the easy path and turn my back on this task and hoard
all that money like an RPG gamer would. But I just can't. I love.. Because God loved me
first and I would just like to share that love experience with others.
1 Tim 6:17-19
"Napapadalas na."
blurt out as I check the zennies left in my account. A sign that I've been trading in and out of
the markets with considerable volume.
Most people would panic at the sight of a 4-6 figure loss. But it shouldn't be about the value.
Focus instead on the percentage of gains and losses. A 250k loss that is -2% is small
compared to a damaging blow of -50k that is -10% of a trader's port. It's just a matter of
perspective.
Taking on these high risk stocks with 6-7 figures is quite easy. But with 8? It takes a special
kind of crazy. These are my defining moments as I challenge myself to this weight class.
Balancing a versatile trading system with volume while trying to keep the right state of mind.
If there's one thing I've learned on these kinds of plays, either you get in early or you get out
quickly. Time to test my limits.
As far as I can remember, I've been sharing my portfolio snapshots since my newbie days
in Finance manila. And this was way before I was taking in students and way before
Facebook Stock market groups became a thing.
(This was the Day I decided to start recording my portfolio every end of day.)
I did so because I wanted to start a culture of openness. I was moved by two anonymous
bloggers COM (Color Of Money) and Cliff The Investor (This guy's blog is no more) who
relentlessly shared their insights and snapshots every single day to back up their studies
and who they are in the markets. They walked the talk.
You see, a lot of people would claim that they traded this or that. And during those times, if
you were able to make a killing on stocks that made parabolic moves you'd be respected
and followed. Of course you want to know how they were able to do it, so you follow them.
And those snapshots are one big help in opening your mind to the possibilities of the
markets and dissecting the mind of the trader - Where they entered and where they closed
positions.
Why? I wondered.
Now here's a question. What is your litmus test to know if a person is legit or not?
Here comes a guru who was able to buy and hold NOW or BRN this quarter below 1.00.
That's impressive. But how about the superstocks last year? And the year before that? I
don't know about you but for me, consistent results backed up by records would always
trump anything else. So don't be impressed by jackpot stocks.
It was Closing time in the Markets of April 5th 2016. This was my first time in my Trading
career to experience a 7 Digit Loss in a Day. Lucky me right?
I'm fine. It's weird I know. I should be feeling something. Pain. Depression. Sadness. But
none of these emotions are present.
It wasn't always like this. And like everyone else who learned this craft, I also had my fair
share of emotions - Happily jumping off my chair when I see huge gains in my port from
super stocks. Then cry and sleep in heartache after a few trading days, as those gains get
eaten up by a series of losses. Believe me, It's normal.
Learning is a process. It takes time. And the stock market isn't something easily mastered.
Don't believe people in social media who tell you trading is easy money, people who tell you
all the good things about the markets without disclosing the risks. And especially people
who don't talk about managing losses and emotions.
These people who seem to be always right about everything and give you this illusion that
everyone is profiting from the market but you, is a lie. Because no one is immune from the
Markets.
I look at the Stock Market as a game - the gains and losses in my account are just
numbers. There are good days and there are bad days. Today was a bad day.
And that's all there is to it. Moping around and giving in to negativity wouldn't help bring
back what I've lost now would it? This experience just means I need to refine my system so
this kind of damage would less likely to occur in the future.
In ZFT, we have a ritual called "The Purge" where we rid ourselves of all noise that could
affect our trading decisions. This noise could be in the form of trading buddies, stock
groups, gurus, subscriptions, disclosures, news, rumors, etc.. The process helps us re align
our focus and better ourselves. If you are having trouble with noise, Try purging.
Many people fail fast in trading because of ignorance or lack of a better system. Selling
plays a bigger part in trading than buying. And cutting losses is the first system every
aspiring trader should master.
I am procrastinating at the moment, couldn‟t write anything for the technical report I‟m
supposed to finish in three days. I decided to write this hoping that other people will
somehow benefit and take something from my experience.
A red port and stressful work is never a good combination. Most will ask how I ended up so
deep in shit. My mentors would disavow me for it seems like I never learned a thing.
Having the time to reflect I‟ve divided this post into stages.
Stage 1 – Denial
One critical factor is the denial stage. The refusal to accept you made a mistake will
inevitably result to not wanting to cut your losses quickly. I reverted back to what I was
before the ZF program. When you are so deep in shit, you just --- you just can‟t get out of it.
I relied on hope again instead of thinking straight and use what I learned. This is like you
being Pandora, holding a box with nothing but hope in it. The period that one is still hoping
that things will turnaround eventually is what denial is all about.
You cannot blame me – after all to hope is human for man is an animal with a sense of the
future, a being in quest of reality. Threatened by fear and encouraged by hope, as he
reaches beyond himself for that which is yet to come.
Let me stop you right there as you might get the wrong idea, hoping maybe in human‟s
nature but the same way you wouldn‟t mix Mentos® mints with a bottle full of Coca-Cola®
you DON‟T mix hope and trading in one sentence. (which I just did but pay no attention to
that). They just won‟t go well together.
In this instance, I felt so hopeless and so frustrated that I wanted to quit trading there and
then. I needed to talk to someone. I looked for some guidance. From someone who
wouldn‟t say “kaya mo yan” or “makakabawi ka din” or “maliit lang yang loss na yan”.
My superplay just took a super punch to the gut. It could not, for the life of me, fly. Every darn third liner had their moment
and this stock had not.
Frustrating!
April had been so awful, if it weren‘t for the deal stocks with Zee I‘d be openly admitting that I have made such a dramatic
failure of trading.
In the end though, my own moves after each deal stock erased any loss recovery I made until I finally realized that my
losses had returned to it‘s original point of 270,000…. Plus 11,000 more.
The copper taste of blood stung my mouth after biting my lip so hard. It started to bleed. For the longest time in my life,
every emotion flowed through me like life forces filling me on my bare edges. In again, out again.
The stock market taught me not to feel, and when it was time to be angry, or sad, or disappointed– I was not. That was
when crisis struck me. What then? Oh what then? Who am I? What have I become?
I have become emotionless, yes I have, but have I become a better trader? What is left of me after this character trait has
gone? Oh nothing! I wonder if it went away with my soul.
It‘s not fair if I don‘t see any progress I even made after all.
I told Zee I‘m resting from the market. I reasoned I have so many things to do.
He‘s much smarter than that and he knows I‘m withdrawing. I couldn‘t beat the guy to it. I have not met him before but he
knows what‘s going on my mind, so for the larger part of it, he decided to agree with me and then ignore everything I just
said.
―Don‘t you go shiz cray cray on me!‖, he told me, not angrily but rather in a worried way, betraying his usual troll-like
humour. It was after I told him that maybe I should just sell everything, go on a sabbatical, and live away from civilization
where I wouldn‘t have to explain myself.
I always felt embarrassed to ask for help when I don‘t feel okay. I need
someone‘s permission that it‘s okay, and it‘s safe to say what‘s troubling
me, without troubling them too. I didn‘t feel like anyone should bother
with my nonsense. And so, I try hard to keep it to myself. Lately though,
the pressure from making so many mistakes had gotten to me.
And I felt like no one was there to talk to about it. That‘s the problem with
being the 1% of the population who‘s involved with the stock market.
Ordinary folks just could NOT fathom what you‘re going through.
Whatever they say are automatically dispensed from the magical box of
―Kaya mo yan.‖, ―You‘ll make it.‖, ―Mababawi mo rin.‖ The concern was real, but the empathy nonexistent. It was hard to
believe it since they have no clue about the entire system. Not like it was their fault.
We were supposed to enter a bounce play for NOW and BRN. It would have
been cute scribing NOW for the third time. Unfortunately, it bounced earlier
than we expected. He got in, and I didn‘t.
I was quite surprised upon seeing it. It was nice the last time I saw it but
now it‘s niiice. I hurriedly began to update my charting.
I gave him an answer. A wrong one. I was overthinking the rules so he had
to right it. Maybe this is the kind of anxiety I get for being often wrong? I
seem to over read.
ISM was about to break the previous high, but the top was not enough to
impress me and consider it a ―breakout‖. It was pretty early in the day,
around 10 am. A lot could still happen.
I told him it was alright for it to close near the high part of Fibonacci. Near
0. He said it was not. It had tried to attempt to break it so it must close
strong.
After the lunch time, I had seen the same strength on ISM continue. It was
defending the top levels and the candle was about to close strong. I then
decided to break the rules a bit and start buying before it closes.
Over the weekend, I had done much thinking about my life. It‘s a crisis!
I‘m standing on a crossroad and I‘m trying to live two lives at the same
time. Both demanded the best of me and I‘m not at my best fighting form,
but atleast I‘m still trying. I‘m glad I‘m anchored by ZFT, else I‘d waste so
much time floating mindlessly over water or struggling to breathe
underneath.
He tried to understand the cause of all the stress or why I wanted to run
away from everything but I couldn‘t even begin to explain it. I hate being
dramatic when I talk to people, I could feel the pressure of asking them to
comfort me. It‘s such a bother. I feel hyper-aware and conscious of what I ask other people to do. I never meant to have a
heavy presence.
Finally, Monday morning, I had the time to monitor. The stock market was going
insane. I saw some people have it rough that day but the tribe members seem to
have caught the outperformers. They cheered on over social media.
I was awe-struck at how they could see every thing that moves. How did they do
that? How can they go ―uy, FNI.‖ and then next minute talk about another exotic
stock, then another one, and then another one.
Charting is one thing, how are they watching all their preys? How do they execute?
what if indeed?
His answer reminds me of chess. It‘s not about having a plan, it‘s having PLANS. One for each move or each scenario and
knowing how to counter it.
ISM was having a moment. It was shooting high. The minutes chart consistent. It
consolidates, shoots, consolidates, shoots. Again and again until it reached a point of
unbelievable frenzy.
I didn‘t know what to do! I was so used to cutting stocks that went down but for those
that kept going up? It was a different kind of nervous. I had learned my lesson on sell
downs.
I gotchu, I gotchu. But what about the fact that it hit so high now? Pera na yun ah!
Otherwise known as, you‘ll work twice as hard for the unnecessary sigurista profit-
taking. Emotional well-being is top priority to be able to trade with a clear head.
At the end of the day, we reviewed our plan… Or rather he reviewed mine and made
HA! Well, not meaning to brag but I used to commute around EDSA daily so
I know pain.
Did I just tell you that my losses went back and even increased? Oh dear. It did. It was so frustrating. My port is having a
bipolar moment. We‘re either eating out at Niu or having ramen for dinner. The pressure is real.
A supercomputer is inside of me but my body is rusted. I couldn‘t execute! That‘s where I fail.
The thing with Zee is… He usually scrimps on the compliments. It‘s fine, just the way he is. I‘m actually the same. He
doesn‘t prance around like a stage parent cooing at every turn. He takes a look at what you do and if you‘re lucky, you get
a thumbs up or ―that‘s correct.‖.
I think I‘ve been a lot more frail lately. Trust me, I hate it. I fight it. I eat chocolates, I exercise, I cook. Whatever. I‘m trying
to fight it off.
there, there…
I wonder what I‘d be if he didn‘t hold my hand and pull me out of it? Probably really
freaking sad. Will probably try again half-hearted and lose in return because I didn‘t
even really put myself into it, and after that, I don‘t know. It‘s a slippery slope.
It sure revealed a lot of things about him, who saw me trying to lick my wounds and
withdraw inside my shell. He reached out and goaded me to try again. I wonder what
it says about me.
One day, I hope to return the favor in whatever way I can. But the way I see it, he doesn‘t want me to return the gesture,
he wants me to pay it forward to other people.
Hello, dear readers! Whew what an exhausting write-up! It‘s only Tuesday but a
lot has happened. Panic is prevalent again as people talk about a market reset.
I don‘t have a clue what that meant.
But just remember, we‘re trading stocks not the entire market.
I hope the universe has been kind to you a much as it was with me.
“The resonance of comfort only echoes when the voice knows what it says. It will only
reach the pit if it understood the depth of the distress in the first place.”
Did you notice what both of them said? Aside from both didn‟t say “makakabawi ka din”.
No, I wasn‟t looking for those phrases either. In reality, I was just looking for comfort.
So I ate ice cream. I walked the dogs. I took in the form of an Awoken and killed some Vex
and Fallen in Venus in some form of release of my frustrations.
Stage 3 - Acceptance
Everyone knows the tribe has strict cut loss limits. There are rules. The mentors never
failed to remind us, as they both kept on reiterating the same phrases: follow rules and
exercise discipline.
So I have now accepted that I made a mistake. It was on me. Not on the mentors, not on
the system.
It still took me approximately two weeks to finally cut all those losses. It was the Purge all
over again.
By this time, these phrases in Stage 3 (Study and invest more time. Review that trade.
Reflect and learn from it.) make more sense now.
So nope, I didn‟t raise the white flag. The fight goes on as they say.
Stage 4 – Aftermath
I was supposed to lay low for a bit and take a breather from the market after those
successive bad trades. But I am as stubborn as a mule so I still traded and dug myself
deeper and deeper. I won some trades but I incurred bigger losses.
It is important to take a step back every now and then. It gives you a wider perspective on
things around you.
I guess for some divine intervention my day job forced me to go into a sabbatical leave from
the market. Mind you, it was hard when the village runs on solar power and someone forgot
to buy petrol for the generator. Nonetheless I managed, I had time to reflect and revisit my
trades.
After such reflection one thing is clear I need to control my emotions. One very easy thing
to say yet so difficult to do.
Epilogue
Today 18th of May, after almost a month of incurring losses, Ms. Market seemed to be in a
good mood and welcomed me back with arms wide open. I just wish it was really an all-in.
Emotion check: My smile is still from ear to ear BUT not overflowing with joy.
I'm in constant fascination by the heroes in most cartoons and anime. You'd normally see
them face and fight a tougher, impossible enemy. When I think about it, it's just stupid
sometimes - they could have just lived their lives for themselves and not be bothered. But
they choose to become stronger. To have a higher purpose in life. Not just for themselves.
But for others. And in doing so, they find that seemingly impossible strength or wisdom to
meet the need of becoming that hero.
I always wanted to be a hero. To help those in need. I realized I started becoming one
when I committed myself to trade not just for myself. But for others.
`It's May and everything is red. You check your port and it ain't pretty. You hold your
beloved bagger turned beggar stocks and start reading up on disclosures, follow gurus,
trace broker transactions and start to wonder what you did wrong. "It was quite easy to
make money last month. What in the world happened?"
What indeed.
Let me tell you a story in the eyes of ZF. It all started 1st quarter of the year. A Facebook
post appeared, heck, probably a private message coming from a popular guru or stock
market icon.
Tiwala lang. (Just trust)
Of course, you're taken aback. You've never gained access to such vital information. It's too
good to be true right? Stories and rumors of the many who have lost in the stock market
flash between your eyes. "But what if it's true?" You mumble to yourself.
What if.
The man who claims to be an informed player seems decent. This is your golden chance to
regain all your losses! And in a moment's notice, you succumb to the temptation of pushing
that buy button.
All in!
You consult with a few people if you did the right thing. It seems many have already bought
as well. You join in the exchange of information and pleasing comments about the
company. Big personalities add to your confidence as they release sweet words about this
trade. You even spot a few who claim to be the Painters of the Tape, the chosen ones who
are tasked to bring the prices to nirvana.
"Marami kang binili anooo?" one asks. And you casually reply "Hindeeee. Tikim lang."
A few weeks later you check your port and you are up BIG! You can't believe your eyes.
The rumors were true! The tip was legit and everyone is greeting each other and singing
praises. As a reward, you buy yourself that lovely meal and start counting how much profits
you need to buy that lovely ride you've always dreamed about.
First Gen Porsche baby.
Just a few more weeks and it will be yours. But you can't wait that long so you decide to
leverage on more positions bigger than your original investment because YOLO right?
What could possibly go wrong?
And now those weeks have come. You excitingly open your trading account only to find out
the dreaded mess it has become.
"Anyare?" You were supposed to get your Porsche this week, like everyone else. You
consult your trading buddies first. They too are in the same position. The "Alliance" and the
gurus are telling you that it's just a minor bump in the road, so stay put. "Only ginyuses will
sell at this point" they add.
Desperate and in need of comfort, you seek out the root of it all. The annointed one. The
keeper of truths. The Painter of the Tape.
But even he has no encouraging words to give.
What is it that you should do? Will you continue to believe these people? Will you continue
to hold your positions? Will you sell? Will you grab life by the balls and change your
destiny?
I have no idea. I'm just a mere fiction story teller.
I am not saying that believing in Fundamentals or market insiders is wrong and that there is
no money in it, because there is. What I am saying is that out of the 3 Truths I experienced,
[Fundamentals, Technicals and Funnymentals] only Technicals has proven to be consistent
in making me money in EVERY season - be it a bull, sideways, or a dreaded bear market.
(Exhibit A)
"Cognitive Dissonance"
This might be confusing for those who are new to it. So to further expound on this lovely
term, I'd like to introduce Bob. (He's a bit shy)
Bob has been studying and trading the markets for a few years now. He believes that
stocks with good fundamentals, when timed with technicals, will yield him a fortune in a
relatively short amount of time vs if he only believed in one truth.
"Why not get the best out of both worlds, ya know what I'm sayin?"
On the next month however, TEL broke down from it's supports and hit Bob's technical cut
points at -5% to -8%. He was faced with a dilemma. It's a good stock and it pays good
dividends. In a fundamental perspective if the price goes any lower, Bob will greatly benefit
from it because he would be able to buy more shares and that would translate to more
dividends. But on the technical side of things, he had to sell because TEL was already
showing signs of a downtrend.
There was dissonance. A chaos and disharmony boiled within Bob. Does he hold or does
he cut?
So he starts thinking about the time he spent researching about the company. He computes
the tax and the paper losses he'll incur if he sells. And after eating his favorite happy meal,
he came to a decision.
"I'll hold and average down. Someday, this will go back up. It is after all, a fundamentally
good stock. Ya know what I'm sayin?"
In order for Bob to alleviate his anxiety and find peace within himself, he had to choose to
firmly believe in one truth and in this case, it was Fundamentals. A year passed by and he
found himself with deeper losses. But that doesn't affect him anymore.
If you're still new in the markets, there will come a point in your trades where you will have
to decide just like Bob.
"Will I choose Fundamentals? Or will I choose Technicals?"
Remember, there is no middle ground. And now that I think about it, this truth reflects a lot
about life and the decisions we make.
Ahhh.. It's been such a year and so many things happened that I feel like my mind is still in
such dissarray.
I've always wanted to travel and see the world when I was younger. I still do. And this year,
I've dedicated most of my days travelling - you know, spending a week or two in one place
and try to experience the place and culture as a local. I guess one of the best things you'd
gain from the experience aside from the scenic views and great food, is a deeper
understanding of humanity and your place in this world.
Maybe you've noticed ZF isn't the usual ZF that he is anymore when he started. Well, to tell
you honestly, I've been starting to feel burnt out.
Before when someone messages in the ZF page asking for help, I'd normally come to their
rescue and give a friendly reply. Now, there's a 70% chance I'd scold the person or give
cold replies. Am I getting too old for this?
One time, me and Celeste were talking about how our favorite TAP and other groups have
been leading newbloods astray with their so called "trading systems."
"Okay lang yan. We need a diversified market. The more ignorant traders there are, the
more money for us." I replied. Have I turned bad? I remember this statement from Two-face
in Dark Knight : Have I become a Villain?
Thinking about it now, I guess I've neglected my inner child and forgot to have more fun
than I should - releasing all my worries and not giving a single care in the world. Maybe I've
taken more responsibility than I should and could handle? I don't know.
I would like to thank Rooting For Celeste for keeping my emotional health in check. If it
weren't for you, I'd probably act like some old bitter fool ranting all the time.
This season, where our Filipino culture dictates that families spend time together, I decide
to be alone. It's my first time to break tradition. I think I've experienced a glimpse of how
OFWs feel being all alone working their assess off during this time of the year, in a foreign
country for the sake of their family and loved ones. My heart aches for you people.
Nakakamiss din pala yung mga nakakainis na walang kamatayang tanong at statements ng
mga aunties at uncles like :
Kakaakward. Kakainis. Pero Kakamiss And you know what I've realized?
In order to fully appreciate something, you must first know what it's like to have nothing.
And if you have it? Lose it. Then get it back all over again. Because even with all the
money, recognition and authority I have, It still won't beat being with the people I love.
Of all the games I've played, the stock market has been the greatest equalizer man has
created. It does not care about your race or gender, if you are rich or poor, or whatever life
principles you stand for.
Come unprepared and you will be slaughtered. Come with the right mind and skill, and you
will be rewarded.
Now I want you to take a good look at your port and understand this: Whatever you see in
there right now is what you deserve.
Don't expect to earn 100k or 1M in the markets if your mind's capacity is only at 10k.
You want a 1M day change? Then work hard and become worthy of that value.
I remember working my ass off in the corporate world and it was tough. I did many other
odd jobs and tasted the business world. I knew deep inside these things weren't for me.
Then I tried trading. It was tough! Trading wasn't easy for me - as some people claim that I
had talent for. I had to go through a harsh process. I had to go through much losses in
order for me to reach where I am right now. And I'm thankful for all the pain and frustrations
that came with it.
I'd say it took me 3 years to be finally consistent in winning and keeping my gains. In those
3 years, I had 3 instances of a "Wipe Out" where you incur a loss and a mental block that
challenges your will to continue fighting for financial freedom in the markets.
But there was hope. I believed God didn't put this passion of trading in me so I'd just die. I
knew I was meant for something big. I just didn't know it yet. I prayed and sought God.
I believe if you pray for something, it isn't enough that you invoke faith. It should be
accompanied with relative action. Faith without works is dead. Parang tumaya ka lang sa
lotto and leave everything to chance.
So cheers to all you traders who are charting this day before the new year. (I was in your
shoes before.)
I've seen people who have worked their asses off, got good results but in the end, still felt
empty inside - that despite their achievements and possessions, there was always
something missing.
And I've witnessed people who were favored in what they did. They also went through the
same process of refinement. It wasn't easy. It never will be. There's always pain. But by the
end of it all, you see them bringing that special impact to the community that only they could
do.
"Unless the Lord builds a house, the work of the builders is wasted.
Unless the Lord protects a city, guarding it with sentries will do no good."
Let this be a reminder to all of us as we transition to the new year. In everything we plan in
doing, let us seek God first and ask...
I remember this one late afternoon when I was still a 1st grader. My tutor asked me why I
flunked my exam. I told her "Hindi kasi ako nagcheat, yung mga classmates ko, lahat sila
nagcheat." I still remember that very moment because deep inside, I knew I was wrong and
it was such a lame excuse. That instead of admitting that I didn't study for it, I put the blame
on everyone else.
The Victim Mentality - "I can give you a hundred reasons why it isn't working, and not one of
those involves me." This is the very reason why a lot of people stay as losers in life.
Side comment : Some say this could be the reason why a lot of women can't make up their
minds when choosing what to eat. Last time they did, they doomed humanity.
Many pursue trading and investing because they believe it can be their ticket to financial
freedom. Oh you've heard the countless stories of successful people in this field, so you try
it out. Maybe you'll get lucky. But most probably you won't. If the stock market was an easy
game, everybody would be doing it. But it ain't.
At this point, you've come to realize that you need to make a decision. How badly do you
want to pursue this idea of freedom? Well, here's an acid test for that : If you find a single
excuse not to win in this game.
If you want to be a success, stop with the excuses. And give yourself a chance. When was
the last time you were so passionate about flying with your ideas that you forgot about the
fear of falling?
If you were given a million pesos today to trade one stock and were to choose between
these two stocks and with only their charts as available data, which one would you pick?
Stock A
Stock B
Remember your answers because today, we'll talk about the two kinds of traders
represented by Bob (A) and Carl (B).
Let's start!
Bob is where majority of traders belong to. He focuses on stock prices and declines, and
see these events as buying opportunities. A fire sale that would give him profits in the long
term.
No one knows exactly how long it is. It could be a year, 5 years, 10, Indefinite? who
knows? For the answer to this question is very subjective. But the most common answer
Bob has is this:
Time isn't much of an issue. Price is. Or more accurately, feelings are. Basta feel ni Bob
magsell, then he sells. And for this example, he sees the highest price as the reward. "Pag
bumili ako ngayon at BUMALIK to sa 16, makakabili na ako ng (insert bucket list item here)"
Most of the time, this is where speculation and fundamentals start to creep in and play a
major role in Bob's mind. Because these two things give him the justification for his decision
and the hope he needs for his long term dreams.
A year and several months pass and we check on how Bob is doing...
"Okay lang kahit hindi na hit yung TP ko. Long term naman ako dito at magandang
companya naman tong ininvesan ko, (Insert future company plans here.) Babalik din to sa
16! Buy and forget! #ProudInvestorHere"
These are the most common lines you'll hear when traders of this type end up with a stale
or a losing position and do not want to move on. Add to that their collection of quotes and
wallpapers from Lolo Warren to give them encouragement and strength for the coming
years.
Carl understands that even if prices have appreciated significantly but still follows the trend,
there is still plenty of room to make money. He doesn't care about buying the stock at a
cheaper price like Bob so he could feel good and feed his ego, he cares about feeding his
portfolio and managing his time well.
Trends don't change overnight. OK sometimes it does, but that rarely happens. And Carl
understands this fundamental principle : That if a stock came from a long downtrend, it first
has to reverse by consolidating into a sideways trend, then slowly transition into an uptrend.
Obviously, this takes time - days, weeks, months, years? Who knows?
So instead of buying into sideways or downtrends and waiting for these lengthy transitions
to finish, Carl instead focuses on buying a stock that has an established uptrend. He knows
that if he does this, he will save a lot more time. And as the popular saying goes: The Trend
is Your Friend.
I'm saying perspective is everything. If you want to make money the faster way in our
market, buy stocks that are already trending up and making new 52-week highs rather than
waste your precious time buying downtrends and waiting out the transition period.
Not saying you won't make money with Bob's method. But just saying... a moving train is
faster than one that's just starting its engines for the day.
Exhibit 1
When we enter the markets, we aren't just spectators of events that unfold right before our
very eyes. We are first and foremost, participants in a non-ending battle arena. And there
are no allies nor are there friends, there is only you and the beast that is the market. But not
everyone knows this. Most of us are taught from the very beginning, the fundamentals of
loving beautiful beasts. That if you love these big, unfailing and mystical beasts long
enough, you will be rewarded.
For those of you who want to know how much that trader has lost, it's around 1.1M. I know
tons of traders and investors who have lost more. I've read countless of letters like these.
And if there's one truth that the market tells us about these stories, it's Learn before you
Earn.
These losses don't become the dreadful numbers that they are overnight. They always start
as a small, tolerable disease. And rather than finding a cure and dealing with it immediately,
beginners let it run the course.
Then one day, you find yourself paralyzed and in the verge of death. "I'd like to trade and
learn. But it's too late for me to cut." So you accept your sorry position and leave everything
to fate.
Imagine for a second that traders are warriors. Do you think a warrior can fight effectively
with a dreaded disease? Definitely not. The most they can do is spread the disease to the
enemy - which is funny because this is what's happening to a lot of stock market
communities. Damn. I've such a dark sense of humor.
Before one can learn how to fight properly, the disease must be stopped.
This is where the purge comes in. Purging isn't just selling everything in your bloody
portfolio. It's also cleansing of the mind. Because trading isn't a physical game but a mental
Selling everything in your portfolio ensures you have nothing left in the physical and
absolutely nothing to worry about in the markets. It's a painful process but it is necessary.
And after clearing your portfolio, the next thing you'll have to deal with is bitterness. You
know you were wrong. You were humbled by the markets and you paid the costly price of
ignorance and falling prey to false gurus. But in order to move forward you will have to
forgive yourself and accept where and what you currently have in the present. Forget about
the losses you made. Face the markets once again as if it was your first day to see it.
From here, you are ready to learn how to fight. The only things you'll have to deal with are
the bad habits you caught before you started purging - Listening to market gurus, rumors,
tips, the reading of disclosures and news, and all your misconceptions of the markets and
the fears from the scars you presently have.
Don't listen to those who can only talk. Don't fall for it again. For it is too easy to quote
wisdom of old. Seek out people who can talk about winning and back them up by
consistently showing you how they are made.
And how would you know if you are right this time around and what you're learning isn't
another disease? Here's a simple acid test: If what you learned makes you money, that is
truth. If it doesn't, consider it cancer.
This post is dedicated to all the traders who believe in technical analysis. If you're a
fundamentalist, don't waste your time reading this post because this doesn't apply to you.
Side Question : Why wasn't it given the same attention when it first broke out (1)?
And this one is my personal favorite because of the Description. I admire the honesty.
I would understand true fundamentalists who are in these groups because that's just how it
is with fundamentalists - you consolidate all the news and information you have in one
"drawer" and that's fine. But for anyone else who isn't a fundamentalist?
Strength in numbers. This is the most common mistake people think works in the markets.
"If we group buy the shiz out of this stock, this will definitely go higher."
But you know what? The market doesn't work that way.
And I've seen groups where popular gurus, company owners and CEOs are present and
give buy recos with outrageous target prices on their stocks - AND then dump shares to
your face.
If you want to survive in the markets as a trader, follow these two principles : Never trust
anyone with a buy reco. And take everything you hear with a grain of salt.
Have you ever heard one of your trading buddies, tell you off by saying "wag mo bilhin yan!
illiquid!" Then you look at the board and think "okay naman ah"
This can mean either two things. Either (A) You are correct and your friend is just a dumb-
ass who got the same scolding from a trader with a bigger port size. Or (B) Your dear friend
is right and you haven't experienced getting
trapped on an illiquid stock.
One day, he decideds to allocate 5M in one trade. He thinks to himself, "Rich kid ako eh. I
can afford." So he goes on and buy 1.385k shares of MEG at 3.61. By the middle of the day
he realizes that he wanted something else, something faster. So he sells all of his shares at
3.6 with ease. Commission loss doesn't bother him. Rich kid kasi eh.
Prices went lower and At 4.3 he was now facing a 700k Loss. If he sold down everything
before and during the market's closing, at what price would LMG reach? At this point he
understood that he was trapped and that it was impossible to cut without incurring much
damage.
To give you a better image of Andy's situation and to the hundreds of traders who don't
know how to sell their shares due to illiquidity.
So Andy decides to just hold all his positions because it was now too late and too deep to
cut. He then thinks to himself : "Anyway Syurbul Backdoor naman toh. Okadah Bombah!"
Now at the moment that his cut loss levels were hit, Bravz was able to sell his 10k shares
easily because his allocation allowed him to be liquid enough for this specific play.
Not all traders are equal in size. Liquidity is Relative. There are huge sharks with 7 to 8
figures. There are Whales in the 9 Figures. And of course, let's not forget the cute little
plankton traders that are just starting out by the 4-5 figures.
So how can we know if a stock is liquid or not?
I don't know about you and what other experts would say but I would classify a stock Liquid
if I am able to use 100% of my total port, to buy or sell the stock at current prices and be
ABLE to close positions on the SAME DAY without single handedly creating a 3-5% swing.
To further visualize this, if you had to buy 1 Million worth of shares within a minute without
causing prices to fluctuate too much, between DMC and SPM, which one do you think
would be able accommodate YOUR size?
Using our super powers, the common sense, we'd all agree that if we had to buy a million
worth of shares, DMC is the liquid choice.
But if the stock I wanted to play was SPM and obviously it's illiquid for my size, I could
always adjust my allocation so that it becomes a Liquid Trade. Instead of buying 1M worth,
I'll just allocate 30k worth.
Because by the end of the day what matters is how you adapt and trade accordingly to your
size.
I know I haven't written in a while. I've been on a journey of self discovery and much more -
I'll reserve this for another time to give it justice.
What originally was a sharing of life lessons over lunch with some traders ended up with a
glimpse of the future.
I have a certain stigma when it comes to brokers. But that changed today when i met
people behind COL. Beyond the laggy servers, and all that money, are people who have a
genuine heart to serve others.
Thank you Taylor for introducing me to your family of traders in the 23rd floor - hope to
meet and talk to everyone when the right time comes.
To the Lee brothers I met today, and to the founder Edward Lee, thank you for the wisdom
you imparted.
Purpose, character and being in the right community (culture) is better than being the best
trader out there.
What would you do if you're in the middle of trading high risk stocks and the founder of an
established company visits you and starts imparting wisdom?
Would you choose your profits over a unique moment that will never happen again?
After
I lost a million worth of potential profits today and I didn't care. I'd even say it's the happiest
million I spent. The snapshots above were before and after shots of my small port (check
the time) - di pa kasama yung big port jan.
For which of you, desiring to build a tower, does not first sit down and count the cost,
whether he has enough to complete it? Otherwise, when he has laid a foundation and is not
able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him, saying, „This man began to build and was
not able to finish.‟ Or what king, going out to encounter another king in war, will not sit down
first and deliberate whether he is able with ten thousand to meet him who comes against
him with twenty thousand?
It was the last quarter of 2010, I remember having the typical Filipino dream of going
abroad to work, travel and see the world and then retire at a ripe age and come back to
build a nice house somewhere near a beach. I also remember that I haven't really figured
out what I wanted to do. It would have been nice to be able to do what you want, have fun
and get paid for it. DOTA 2 and eGames wasn't that much of a thing that time.
After some time observing the markets I understood that making +5% to as much as +50%
in a day was very possible. But of course I had to be realistic so +10% every month for a
year would do. I then began to imagine the possibilities. For sure I'm not the only crazy
bastard right?
I was aware that losses can happen as well, but who cared about losses really? When you
look for a job or start a business, do you look at the cost or risks first? No. You look at the
potential profits. Kaya nga nag hanap ng trabaho or patayo ng business para kumita diba? I
was young and foolish.
One reason why people consider going full time in trading is when they experience gaining
profits equal or greater than their salaries with lesser time than they would with their jobs.
My salary or allowance during my practicum abroad (before graduating college) was around
18-21k php. It was a good amount since I was excellent at saving, but it was barely enough
for anything extra I wanted to do or have.
In just two days, I was able to gain 3 months worth of my salary. I felt I could conquer the
world. It was at that moment when I decided to go full time after I finish my contract and
graduate from college.
I decided to go full time into trading with a 6-digit port. I didn't know it was a suicide mission.
And by full time trading, I mean not getting a job or business and just dedicating my time
and energy to the markets as my sole source of income.
You see, there are many traders out there who would say that paper losses are okay; that it
is okay to "sit it out" because eventually it will recover. But you see, pain demands to be felt.
It demands your immediate attention. If you let a wound go untreated, it gets worse and
could eventually turn lethal.
This is the difference between full time traders and those who are just wannabees. A
wannabee can commit a mistake or a loss and stick to that loss. They can be wrong as long
as they want, until they eventually become right and say "I told you so." They can afford to
feed their egos because they have a backup plan - it could be a job or business or maybe
they just have a lot of money - a fallout shelter when everything falls apart.
A full time 6-digits trader however, doesn't have this luxury. Pride and ego won't put food in
his table. Every trade will mean life or death to him. There is no backup plan. If he wishes to
survive in the face of a grave mistake, he accepts the loss and cuts to trade another day.
There's this story I've read somewhere. It was about this King going into war with another
from a faraway kingdom. He sent his whole army across the continent with their best ships.
When the armada reached shore and finished making camp, the lord commander of the
king's army immediately ordered the burning of their ships.
This was the kind of situation I found myself in. My ship was burning. There was no turning
back. The kingdom was the prize. Home was the dream.
It wasn't easy. There were seasons of battles where I lost. I questioned my will and sanity
many times.
I ventured into this world with my family's blessing. I had to bring them honor. I had to show
them I was a warrior. That I could take care of myself amidst all the uncertainties that the
market brings. And I failed. Many times. But every single time I fell down to my knees and
started to lose hope, I found myself in the presence of the Lord of Heaven's Armies.
"I still do. You didn't send me here to fight for a dream and die."
"Get up!" He said. "I will fight for you and bring you to your destiny!"
To the the full time 6-Digit traders out there who have burnt their ships and are fighting for
their first seven and their dreams, you have my mad respect! You aren't alone in this war -
seek out the Lord of Heaven's Armies. Believe. Receive.
In the beginning God created the heavens - the moon, the sun and the stars. He created
the earth and everything that lives in it - the huge beasts and the little creepy shits that
crawl. And God saw to it that it was good.
Then God created Man. And in each and every one of them, in the deepest depths of their
hearts, He placed dreams.
A soldier with the initials Z.F. found his dream. Now this soldier asks those who read,