Heng Luo

Astr 170B1
Section 002
26-11-2016
We Must Not Be Alone in The Universe
“I believe alien life is quite common in the universe, although intelligent life is less so.
Some say it has yet to appear on planet Earth.” said by Stephen Hawking, who is one of
the most famous scientists in the world. It is a fact that our universe is extremely large.
There is not any proof that the earth is the unique planet in the whole universe which have
life on it. Many people and scientists including Stephen Hawking believe that some planets
may have life, even intelligent life. We can find out many stories about aliens from movies
and novels, they all give an imagination and belief that we may meet aliens one day. Even
though the universe is still mysterious to humans, scientists are always trying to find keys
to unlock those puzzles. There was a scientist called Frank Drake who gave us an equation
which determined how many other civilizations in our galaxy is possible to communicate
with us.
There was a scientist called Frank Drake who gave us an equation which determined
how many other civilizations in our galaxy is possible to communicate with us. According
to the Drake equation, most definitions or factors of the Drake equation are still not very
clear, although we already have some good estimates. For example, we cannot accurately
calculate how many stars in our galaxy and the average rate of star formation in our galaxy.
We can talk about the Drake equation by appropriately dividing it into two big parts. One
is about planets; another one is about the intelligent civilization. At first, about planets, we
know that stars are continuously destroying and forming all the time. So one of the Drake
equation is about the rate or speed of formation of stars. And then, life has to be supported
by a livable planet and this planet should stay in the habitable zone like the Earth in the
solar system. Thus, the Drake equation is considering figure out the fraction of stars which
have a planet and how many planets are livable enough to support life. The third is about
the intelligent civilization on a livable planet. Although a planet may support life in it, it
does not mean that civilization would be developed. And then, a civilization in that planet
also has to develop technology to release detectable signal for our human to detect. Because
of that reason, the Drake equation took those as uncontrollable factors of civilization in a
planet to process calculation. In addition, we have to consider that every civilization has
its longevity. For example, if two intelligent civilizations have very high technology which
is available to get out their planet to space, however, they developed and ended in two
different periods, they would not find each other. According to all information I give above,
the Drake equation gives many specific ideas about calculating the number of civilization
that we can commute with in our galaxy, but it cannot give us an accurate answer. Even so,
it still set up a basic theory about finding alien life.
Fermi thinking is a very efficient and logical thinking way which based on fact. The
most important factor of Fermi thinking is that it can simplify and divide all kind of difficult
and complex problems or questions into many small pieces which are easier to solve. For
example, once Fermi wanted to detect the energy of the atom bomb. He tore several pieces
of paper from a sheet of notebook and released those paper into air when the shock wave
was coming after the bomb detonated. And then, by determining the physical motion of
those paper, Fermi came out a conclusion that the total energy of the atom bomb
appropriately equal to the total energy released by ten thousand tons of TNT. Therefore,
we can find that Fermi thinking is to simplify some complex questions to several small
parts, and calculate or solve those small parts to get an estimated answer of the whole scale
of question.
The Drake Equation is an example of Fermi thinking, it must help to explain and deal
with some problem in the Drake Equation. Perhaps, this way of thinking may help us to
determine some data which is difficult for our human to detect directly. For example, we
cannot figure out the speed of life evolution in other livable planet which have life.
However, scientists may consider taking our Earth as an example to figure out the estimated
speed of life evolution in other planet. On the other hand, although it is true that fermi-
thinking can simplify a difficult question, it still has to base on some facts we already know.
According to the Drake equation, there are so many things that we are still not familiar
with. For example, the length time of a technical civilization, we cannot find any proof to
find out an answer, because we still do not know how long our civilization would exist.
 In the past, we cannot detect the star and planet which are farther away from us, but
now, scientists have ways such as Doppler and transit methods to find out exoplanets. The
Doppler technique is to measure that shift of the main star because of its planets orbiting
it. When the star shifts, it would move away or move toward us in the period, so the star’s
spectrum would appear red-shifted and blue-shifted. So this method can provide
information about the planets’ mass and orbital period. Then, the transit method can detect
the very small decreasing of star’s luminosity if planets are passing between the main star
and observatory. Thus, by measuring how much the luminosity reduces and the time of
transit, scientists could calculate estimate size. Sometimes we can get the planet’s
atmosphere spectrum. In addition, NASA’s Kepler Mission brings us a very advanced and
efficient way to detect many stars in same time, so scientists did not need to observe stars
one by one. According to the discovery of Kepler’s Mission, we know that “almost all sun-
like stars have planetary systems and about 17 percent of stars have an Earth-sized planet”
(Nancy Atkinson, published on 23 Dec, 2015). On the other hand, Kepler’s Mission also
provides us some information about the estimated amount of planets. So we can have an
estimate calculation that how may Earth-like planets in the habitable zone. We can
synthesize that information and lead to the estimated result of one of the Drake Equation—
the average number of Earth-like planets which can support life.
Some concepts think that the Earth is rather unique in the universe. According to the
article Galactic Habitable Zones (2001), a planet which can support life needs many right
situations such as the right distance to the center of the galaxy, the right composed of the
right amount of material, etc. For example, our milky way is one of the most massive
galaxy in the nearby area. Our solar system is located in the area which is mental-rich
area and orbits the galaxy stably. Those characteristics make us keep out of the galaxy’s
dangerous spiral arm which means that we can survive in the universe (Galactic
Habitable Zone, 2001.). Those points also can be considered into some parts of the Drake
Equation because the Drake Equation is not perfect and it might be lack of some situation
to calculate the rate of alien life. I would like to insert this concept into the first three
parts of the Drake Equation because only those three about the planet itself can be
influenced by galactic habitable zone concept.
 Next, I would focus on my own opinion and discuss and build some parts of the Drake
equation. The factor R* is the first part of the Drake Equation which means the rate of
formation of stars which can support developing intelligent life. I think that the star must
be hot enough to create visible light but it cannot be too hot. Also, stars must be in the
galaxy which is stable enough like our Milky Way and less chaos than usual galaxy. The
solar-type system is really necessary and stable for intelligent life to develop. So, I consider
that it should be around G and F star. G and F occupy 10.6% of the total stars. In addition,
I do not agree that a binary star would have more possibility to develop life because a
binary star has too many unpredictable situations and the environment, so my final R* is
0.053 which is the result that 0.106 multiply 50%.
Then, the second part of the Drake equation is the factor fp which is the amount of
newly stars which have planets. As I mentioned above, according to the information from
the Kepler Mission, we know that nearly all stars have planets and 17 percent have Earth-
size planets (Nancy Atkinson, 2015). Obviously, every star may not only have Earth-like
planet, so I consider to choose the middle value between 1 to 0.17. the consequence is that
fp can be 0.4.
The third part of the Drake equation is the factor Ne which is the average number of
planets which might support life. According to the Kepler Mission, there might be about
40 billion Earth-like planets in the habitable zone within a star system. On the other hand,
in our Milky Way, there is about 100 billion stars. According to the research from Khan,
Amina, there are 11 billion Earth-sized planets may be orbiting sun-like stars (4 November
2013). Also, a planet need amount of mental to form stable and rocky surface so that it can
support life better. The rate might be small. Therefore, the rate of Ne might be 1. However,
the habitable zone is not always like the one we are in. It would depend on the main-
sequence star. If temperature and size of the main-sequence star are hot and large, the
habitable zone must be quite far away from the star to maintain water.
Then, I would continue to introduce the next four parts of the Drake equation. The
factor fl is the fourth part of the Drake equation. It means whether the planet can develop
life at same time. I consider that fl might be a quite high rate because of many planets in
the habitable zone. This factor does not need to consider the intelligent life on the planets,
so it means that some life which has more adaptability than high-class life like animals
might have more possibility to grow in the serious environment on those Earth-like planets.
Thus, the rate of fl I think can be 1.
The fifth-factor fi of the Drake equation is the rate of that planet with life can develop
intelligent life. In my opinion, this rate would be extremely low. If this rate is very high,
according to the massive numbers of planets in the universe, there should be a lot of
intelligent life which can build some strictures or show some traces. Also, if we took the
Earth as an example, there are billions of species that have existed on the Earth, however,
only human successfully evolved and developed to intelligent life. So I think that fi might
be 0.0000001.
The next factor of the Drake equation is fc which means the possibility of civilizations
that develop a technology which can emit an electric signal that we can detect into the
universe. This rate I think also might very high. If we took the history of human as an
example, even though human has spread to many different places on the Earth, different
civilizations still can develop a similar technology and living habits. Thus, it means that
intelligent life would develop high technology like the human as long as spending some
time. This rate might be 0.7.
The final factor L of the drake equation is the length of time that a civilization
releases detectable signal to space. This factor is really uncertain because we still did not
know how long our modern civilization can exist. Maybe our human civilization can be
ended by nuclear war, nature disaster or climate change. Simply, according to Micheal
Shermer, he estimated “L as 420 years, based on the duration of sixty historical Earthly
civilizations” (August 2002). I agree with his opinion because there is no civilization can
exist all the time in history. Those civilizations may end one day because of something
like war. Therefore, my L is also 420. Some situation that we have to consider is that the
unexpected situation, such a neutron star called pulsar which orbits around a dead star
was discovered in 1991, the Hot-Jupiter is orbiting ~10x closer to its Sun-like star than
our planet Mercury is around our Sun. In sum up, my estimate N =
0.53*0.4*1*0.0000001*1*0.7*420 = 0.00000623.
The Fermi paradox is the contradiction of the lack of evidence and highly estimate.
This standpoint was made by Enrico Fermi and Micheal H. Hart. We already know that
there are billions of stars in each galaxy which is similar to the Sun. Also, scientists
investigated that planets are very common in the galaxy, which means there may be trillion
and trillion planets in the galaxies. Because the age of the Earth is only 40 billion years,
there would be many planets which are much older than the Earth. In other words, there
may be a lot of planets which should have developed life even intelligent life if we use the
Drake Equation to make a simple estimate. Considering that intelligent life would
overcome the lack of resources and have a trend to colonized other places even other
planets like the human. However, since the billion years of our university, we did not find
any trace of intelligent life or the evidence which actually shows extraterrestrial intelligent
life exist. So that can be considered that intelligent life is rare or we have some
misunderstandings of intelligent life’s behavior. According to my final N of the Drake
Equation, I disagree some parts of the Fermi paradox. I think that when the civilization
exists and how long the civilization exists determine whether we would detect other
extraterrestrial life. Because one civilization may be hard to exist a long time, if we look
back to the Maya civilization which ended suddenly. Thus, we may be hard to find a highly
intelligent life at the same period and they may end before space travel.
According to Rare Earth (Ward, 2000), it argued that life on a planet is very rare
because it required many specific astrophysical and geological situation or events which is
rare in the universe to achieve supporting life. This hypothesis has ten main ideas including
the right location in the right galaxy, the right distance from the right type of star, the right
arrangement of planets, a continuously stable orbiting, a terrestrial planet of the right size,
etc. Although the main idea of this hypothesis sounds reasonable, I still disagree with this
hypothesis. Life need all right circumstances to survive in the universe. I think it is correct.
However, it does not proof that the Earth is rare in the universe. For example, one idea of
Rare Earth Hypothesis is that the right location in the right galaxy. This location I think can
be determine as the habitable zone. In our universe, there is a large range of zone which
can be habitable zone. Therefore, it cannot provide an evidence that only the Earth is in the
right location of galaxy. According to my Drake Equation, some of reason in the Rare Earth
Hypothesis are already considered, so I claim that we did not find extraterrestrial life is
because of other reasons such as the time, distance and evolution instead that life is rare in
the universe.
The techniques that I used to arrive at my estimate is the Drake Equation and the
Fermi-thinking. The Fermi-thinking is kind of technique to deal with problems and the
Drake Equation is the basic factors to calculate alien intelligent life. So we may add more
information to them in order to get a better answer. Maybe, I would like to include more
factors from the Rare Earth Hypothesis and some unexpected situation. I think that both
the Drake Equation and the Fer-thinking are not perfect enough. Thus, adding more
information from the Rare Earth hypothesis and the theory of Habitable Zone to the
techniques would be necessary. The more factors or information adding to it, the more
accurate the final answer will be.
Overall, my final conclusion of N is 0.00000623. My final answer calculation is not
very small because I would like to believe that alien intelligent life exists in the universe.
Perhaps, we cannot find them due to time, distance, and technology. Even though some
theory and hypothesis are trying to proof rare Earth, they still cannot give more evidence
that other Earth-like planets cannot be in the right circumstances that are able to support
life. Maybe, that planet is too farther away and we have not discovered it yet. Moreover,
if the intelligent alien life is existing, I consider that they are also interested in other
intelligent would like to communicate with them like us. If two kinds of life can interact
with each other peacefully, both civilizations might be improved. Now, we have an institute
called SETI (The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), those seekers are trying to
investigate for alien intelligent life. I think that this program is very necessary for the future
of human. it is not only for more advanced civilization but also can seek for other livable
planets that we might immigrate to one day. Also, we would have more possibility to avoid
an alien attack. Thus, If I am rich enough, I absolutely would fund the SETI institute. On
the other hand, the government should fund this institute because this programs still
belongs to one part of an astronomic research, and it would bring more discover about the
Universe in the long run. Therefore, my opinion is that discover is always meaningful for
our future, the more we know, the better we would be.
 Reference
“Nearly All Sun-like Stars Have Planetary Systems”, Nancy Atkinson, published in 23 Dec,
2015. Referenced in 10/16/2016 http://www.universetoday.com/99309/nearly-all-sun-
like-stars-have-planetary-systems/
Khan, Amina (4 November 2013). "Milky Way may host billions of Earth-size planets".
Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 5 November 2013
“How Fermi Would Have Fixed It” Hans Christian Von Baeyer, referenced in 9/28/2016,
Page. 1.
Overbye, Dennis (4 November 2013). "Far-Off Planets Like the Earth Dot the Galaxy".
New York Times. Retrieved 5 November 2013.
Stephen Hawking. (n.d.). Retrieved Sept 28, 2016,
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/s/stephenhaw627129.html\
Shermer, M. (August 2002). "Why ET Hasn't Called". Scientific American: 21.
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