Effects of Weather and Climate on Dengue Fever in Blitar, East Java,

Indonesia
Mardiano Putra, Halmar Halide
Departement of Physics, Geophysics Program, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, South Sulawesi,
Indonesia
Abstract
This paper describes the relation between rainfall and cases of dengue fever in Blitar. In
conducting this study, the writer used a linear regression method where this method can show
the functional relation between in the independent variable (weather and climate), and the
dependent variable (dengue fever). The writer uses data in 2011 to 2015. The writer obtained
the data needed in this study through the Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Blitae and Kementrian
Kesehatan Kota Blitar

1. Introduction Surabaya in 1968. The emergence of

Dengue fever is regarded as a
serious infectious disease threatening about
2.5 billion people all over the world,
especially in tropical countries. In 2009 the
World Health Organization (WHO)
estimated 50 to 100 million reported cases
worldwide. Around 500,000 people are
estimated to be infected by hemorrhagic
dengue fever each year. Dengue fever has
become a major epidemic disease in
Southeast Asia. Such an epidemic arises
from climate change and is made worse by
the population’s lack of knowledge about
and awareness of dengue fever, so that
dengue fever may become endemic. (Side
and Noorani, 2013).
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
(DHF) has been known in Indonesia as an
endemic disease for children. DHF arises as
an outbreak in Indonesia for the first time at
dengue virus and transmitted through the
bite of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes is a major
factor. Outbreaks of fever that occurred in
various regions in Indonesia a few years
ago need attention. Likewise, the vector
Aedes aegypti found in both rural and
urband areas poses a risk of outbreaks of
disease in the future (Chahaya, 2003).
Blitar is one of the regions in
Indonesia that has a high incidence of
dengue fever. There are various factors that
cause this to happen. One of them is high
rainfall resulting in increased growth and
development of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.
In the rainy season, mosquitoes will lay
eggs and put their eggs in puddles that arise
due to high rainfall. The inundation anses
due to lack of drainage of puddles and poor
hygiene of the environment causing the

1|Dengue Fever
development of mosquitoes to be and the Maldive Islands had their first
unstoppable. major DHF epidemics; Pakistan first
reported an epidemic of dengue fever in
1994. The recent epidemics in Sri Lanka
2. Theory
and India were associated with multiple
The first reported epidemics of
dengue virus serotypes, but DEN-3 was
dengue fever occurred in 1779 - 1780 in
predominant and was genetically distinct
Asia, Africa, and North America. The near
from DEN-3 viruses previously isolated
simultaneous occurrence of outbreaks on
from infected persons in those countries
three continents indicates that these viruses
(Gubler and Clark, 1995).
and their mosquito vector have had a
Dengue fever is caused by four
worldwide distribution in the tropics for
closely related virus serotypes: dengue
more than 200 years. During most of this
virus 1 (DEN1), dengue virus 2 (DEN2),
time, dengue fever was considered a benign,
dengue virus 3 (DEN3) and dengue virus 4
nonfatal disease of visitors to the tropics.
(DEN4); two of the serotypes are
Generally, there were long intervals (10 -
hemorrhagic and often fatal while the other
40 years) between major epidemics, mainly
two are not and often not fatal. The disease
because the viruses and their mosquito
is spread by the bite of Aedes aegypti
vector could only be transported between
mosquitoes infected with the virus.
population centers by sailing vessels. A
Although Aedes albopictus can transmit the
global pandemic of dengue begun in
dengue virus and has been detected in Asia
Southeast Asia after World War II and has
in recent year, the Aedes aegypti mosquito
intensified during the last 15 years.
is still the principal vector of dengue virus
Epidemics caused by multiple serotypes
transmission. Interestingly, while dengue
(hyperendemicity) are more frequent, the
fever previously has been known to attack
geographic distribution of dengue viruses
mainly children of primary school age, now
has expanded, and DHF has emerged in the
everybody is vulnerable to the fever (Side
Pacific region and the Americas. In
and Noorani, 2013).
Southeast Asia, epidemic DHF first
Dengue infection (DI) is
appeared in the 1950, but by 1975 it had
amongst the most important emerging viral
become a leading cause of hospitalization
diseases transmitted by mosquitoes to
and death among children in many
humans, in terms of both illness and death.
countries. In the 1980, DHF began a second
The worldwide large-scale reappearance of
expansion into Asia when Sri Lanka, India,
dengue for the past few decades has turned
2|Dengue Fever
this disease into a serious public health 4. Result and Disscusion
problem, especially in the tropical and 4.1. Result
subtropical countries. It is estimated that 52% 4.1.1. Rainfall Chart
of the global population are at the risk of 200

Rainfall average (mm)

contracting dengue fever (DF) or dengue 150

hemorrhagic fever (DHF) lives in the South 100

East (Chakravarti and Kumaria, 2005). 50

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

3. Metodology Year

The method used to determine

the relation between weather and climate
with dengue fever is a linear regression
method. With this method we can see how
the causality relation between dependent
variable (dengue fever) and independent
variables (weather and climate). In the city
of Blitar, there are variations in the age of
patient with dengue fever. In 2011, there
were 6 childrens, and 3 others were
teenager to adult. In 2012, there were 18
childrens and 23 others were teenager to
adult. In 2013, there were 37 childrens and
37 others were teenager to adult. In 2014,
Figure 4.1. Rainfall chart
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Blitar
and Depkes Kota Blitar
From the graph above, we can
see that rainfall annually shows fluctuating
data. Highest number in 2007. This
influenced by several factors, namely the
direction of the wind, and the difference in
the temperature of the land and sea. Both
these things can change every year
depending on the situation.
4.1.2. Patients of Dengue Fever Chart
1000
Patient dengue

there were 43 childrens and 44 others were 800

600
teenager to adult. In 2015, there were 76 400
200
childrens, and 22 others were teenager to
0
adult. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year

Figure 4.2 Patients of dengue

fever chart

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Blitar

and Depkes Kota Blitar

3|Dengue Fever
 From the data above, we can see
that every year, the quantity of dengue fever
patients increases. Highest number in 2010.
In contrast to fluctuating rainfall data, data
on dengue fever patients tend to be stable
and show improvement.
4.2. Discussion
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.193218332
R Square 0.037333324
Adjusted R Square -0.058933344
Standard Error 250.6667739
Observations 12
Based on the data that has been
processed, we find that rainfall does not
have a significant casual relation. In theory,
if there is high rainfall, the case of dengue
fever will increase. Unconsciously there is
a threat that comes as the rainy season
begins, namely mosquitoes. It is true, the
mosquito population feels more and more
violent in the dry season. Bud did you know
that mosquitoes turned out to lay more eggs
in the rainy season. This is because the
breeding grounds and growth of mosquito
larvae, namely puddles, are more in the
rainy season. The eggs of Aedes aegypti
mosquitoes can survive and keep their
conditions dry. When the rainy season
arrives and is exposed to water, the eggs of
this type of mosquito will hatch. Uniquely,
the mosquitoes do not breed in dirty water
like puddles on the road. They are more
fond of clean water such as fish ponds or
water reservoirs at home (detik.come,
2015). The existence of a discrepancy
between theory and data results is caused by
several factors. Over time, the government
will continue to eradicate mosquito nests
and bury, hoard, and drain, plus cleaning
the environment once a week
(TribunLampung, 2017). In addition,
despite the low rainfall, but do not make
efforts that are appealed by the government
and do not maintain cleanliness, the
mosquitoes will grow more easily.
5. Conclusion
From the results of this study, we
can conclude that the height or low rainfall
in Blitar has no effect on dengue fever in
Blitar. This can happen because the
government and the community are
working together to eradicate dengue fever
in Blitar. Despite high rainfall, this can be
over ome with programs made by the
government in eradicating dengue fever.
However, if you do not implement the
program and do not maintain the
cleanliness of the surrounding environment,
even though the rainfall is low, it will
provide a great opportunity for mosquitoes
to breed.
6. Acknowledgments
The writer is honored to be able
to thank Hasanuddin University and the
4|Dengue Fever
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural
Sciences for geophysical study program as
a place for writer to seek knowledge. Not to
forget the writer would like to thank the
Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Blitar and
Kementrian Kesehatan Kota Blitar that has
TribunLampung. July 31st 2017. Cara
supported the data to be studied by the
writer. And also thanks to Putri Wulandari
who give help to writer to write this paper
and Muh. Reza Zaputra who helps the
writer to find data.
detik.com. December 23rd 2015. Musim
Hujan Tiba, Nyamuk Lebih Rajin
Berkembang Biak.
https://m.detik.com/wolipop/read/2015/
12/21/180513/3101625/1628/musim-
hujan-tiba-nyamuk-lebih-rajin-
berkembang-biak
Memberantas Nyamuk Aedes aegypti.
https://www.google.com/amp/lampung.
tribunnews.com/amp/2017/07/31/cara-
memberantas-nyamuk-aedes-aegypti

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5|Dengue Fever