Preliminary selection of mean structure

(1) The temporal change of gpa

(i) Individual profiles

(ii) Average evolution

Pre
 Tentative: The average evolution clearly shows an increasing linear trends
but the individual profiles did not show this linear trend.

(2) By SEX
Tentative: both male and female’s gpa show linear trend and the female was
consistently higher than the male. The difference was not a constant.

A statistical test for SEX after adjusting for occas was

Coefficientsa
Unstandardized Standardized 95.0% Confidence In
Coefficients Coefficients for B
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Uppe
1 (Constant) 2.522 .020 124.310 .000 2.482 2.561
occasion .106 .006 .462 18.449 .000 .095 .118
pupil gender .148 .020 .188 7.503 .000 .109 .187
a. Dependent Variable: gpa

The beta for sex was 0.148 (SE=0.02) and the associated t test (0.148/0.02=7.053, p<
0.0001). A 95 Percent confidence interval was 0.109-0.187.
So, sex should be included in further variable selection.

(3) High school gpa

Coefficientsa

Standardized

Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients 95.0% Confidence

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound U

1 (Constant) 2.351 .053 44.273 .000 2.247

occasion .106 .006 .462 18.213 .000 .095

high school gpa .083 .017 .126 4.948 .000 .050

a. Dependent Variable: gpa

The beta was 0.083 and the associated 95 percent confidence interval was 0.05-
0.116. So we can conclude high school gpa should be included in further variable
selection.

(4) Job

Coefficientsa

Standardized

Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients 95.0% Confidence Interv

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper

1 (Constant) 3.266 .050 65.041 .000 3.168

occasion .099 .005 .432 18.124 .000 .089

job status -.308 .022 -.335 -14.071 .000 -.351

a. Dependent Variable: gpa

The job was inversely associated with gpa and the beta was -0.308 (95% CI: -0.351- -
0.265). So Job should be included in further variable selection.

(5) Stepwise regression

We enter occas and select sex, highgpa, and job in stepwise procedure where the
entry p value <=0.15 and the removal p value >=0.16. The results are shown
below.
Coefficientsa

Standard
ized
Unstandardized Coefficie 95.0% Confi
Coefficients nts Interval for B

Std. Lower
Model B Error Beta t Sig. Bound

1 (Constant) 2.599 .018 145. .000 2.564

651

occasion .106 .006 .462 18.0 .000 .095

37
2 (Constant) 3.266 .050 65.0 .000 3.168
41

occasion .099 .005 .432 18.1 .000 .089

24

job status -.308 .022 -.335 - .000 -.351

14.0
71

3 (Constant) 3.178 .051 62.7 .000 3.078

73
occasion .100 .005 .433 18.5 .000 .089
54

job status -.300 .021 -.326 - .000 -.342

13.9
62

pupil .134 .018 .170 7.32 .000 .098

gender 5

4 (Constant) 2.922 .070 41.6 .000 2.784

32

occasion .100 .005 .434 18.7 .000 .089

83
 job status -.293 .021 -.319 - .000 -.335
13.7
62

pupil .141 .018 .180 7.77 .000 .106

gender 6

high .079 .015 .120 5.19 .000 .049

school gpa 7
a. Dependent Variable: gpa

Tentative model
(1) Mean structure: ocas, sex, highgpa and job.
Growth Curve Models
Model: Random Level 1 fixed Level 2 fixed Random
intercept only predictors predictors coefficient
Fixed part Coeff SE Coeff SE Coeff SE Coeff SE
predictor
Intercept 2.865 0.019 2.970 0.044 2.788 0.095 2.672 0.090
Sex ( M vs F -0.147 0.033 -0.116 0.032
High school 0.085 0.028 0.089 0.026
gpa (highgpa)
Job status -0.171 0.018 -0.172 0.018 -0.131 0.017
(job)
Year/semester 0.102 0.004 0.102 0.004 0.103 0.006
(occas)
Sex*occas
Highgpa
*occas
Random part
𝜎𝑒2 0.098 0.004 0.055 0.003 0.055 0.003 0.042 0.002
𝜎𝛽20 0.057 0.007 0.053 0.006 0.046 0.006 0.039 0.006
𝜎𝛽2𝑡 0.004 0.0006

𝜎𝛽2𝑗𝑜𝑏

𝜎01 -0.003 0.002

𝜎02
𝜎12
AIC 924 334 319 210
-2LL 920 330 315 202
Growth Curve Models (continued)
Model: Random Cross level
coefficient interactions
Fixed part Coeff SE Coeff SE
predictor
Intercept 2.629 0.093 2.649 0.097
Sex ( M vs F) -0.100 0.034 -0.076 0.035
High school 0.089 0.028 0.091 0.029
gpa (highgpa)
Job status -0.114 0.017 -0.132 0.017
(job)
Year/semester 0.104 0.006 0.123 0.028
(occas)
Sex*occas -0.029 0.011
Highgpa -0.002 0.009
*occas
Random part
𝜎𝑒2 0.035 0.002 0.042 0.002
𝜎𝛽20 0.026 0.019 0.039 0.006
𝜎𝛽2𝑡 0.006 0.001 0.004 0.0006
0.001 0.000
𝜎𝛽2𝑗𝑜𝑏

𝜎01 0.001 0.004 -0.002 0.002

𝜎02 0.003 0.005
𝜎12 -0.002 0.002
AIC 239 217
-2LL 225 209

In conclusion
(1) Fixed effects: sex, highgpa, job and occas
(2) Random effects: random intercept and random slope for occas but for job
(3) Inclusion of interactions did not improve fit.