POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 9TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM AST

UltraPoll - Newfoundland
and Labrador Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
9th November 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey conducted between October
30th to November 1st, 2018 among a sample
of 637 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerical
available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.86% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
GOVERNING NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR LIBERALS MAINTAIN
THEIR LEAD OVER PCs

9 November 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals have a 5.5% lead over
the Progressive Conservatives.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a

conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 637 Newfoundland
and Labrador residents between October 30th and November 1st. The poll has
a margin of error of +/- 3.86% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals have lost almost four points since we last surveyed Newfoundland
and Labrador,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.
“Perhaps this might be due to the effect of the PCs electing a new leader, but
the Liberals are still in a strong position.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 44.6% support, while the
PCs come in with 39.1%. The NDP led by Gerry Rogers have 12.8%.

The Liberals lead the PCs among both men and women. Liberals among
respondents under the age of 35 and older than 65, while the PCs lead in the
35-49 and 50-64 age cohorts. The PCs lead in the St. John’s area, while the
Liberals lead in the rest of province.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

Undecided 19.7%

Liberals 37.6%
Another Party 2.4%

All Voters
NDP 9.9%

Decided and Conservatives

Progressive Leaning Voters
30.5%

Liberals Another
Progressive Party 3.5%
Conservatives NDP Another Party Undecided

NDP 12.8%

Liberals 44.6%

Decided and Leaning Voters

Progressive Conservatives 39.1%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Another Party

 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ St. John's Rest of NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 37.6% 40.4% 34.9% 39.7% 36% 32.8% 43.3% 29.8% 39.6%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 30.5% 31.2% 29.8% 14.8% 36.9% 34.1% 34.2% 30.1% 30.6%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 9.9% 8.8% 10.9% 18% 10.3% 7% 5.5% 16.6% 8.2%
Another Party 2.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.2% 1.9% 3.6% 1.4% 1.6% 2.6%
Undecided 19.7% 16.9% 22.2% 25.3% 15% 22.5% 15.6% 21.9% 19.1%
Unweighted Frequency 637 322 315 83 125 211 218 277 360
Weighted Frequency 637 308 329 143 154 190 150 131 506

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ St. John's Rest of NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 38.8% 41.1% 36.7% 41.9% 36.1% 34.4% 44.4% 30.8% 40.9%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 34.5% 34.9% 34.2% 17% 40% 39.8% 38.5% 34.3% 34.6%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 10.9% 9.2% 12.6% 18.9% 11.4% 7.3% 7.3% 19% 8.8%
Another Party 3.1% 4% 2.2% 2.3% 4.2% 3.8% 1.6% 1.9% 3.4%
Undecided 12.7% 10.8% 14.5% 19.9% 8.2% 14.7% 8.2% 13.9% 12.3%
Unweighted Frequency 637 322 315 83 125 211 218 277 360
Weighted Frequency 637 308 329 143 154 190 150 131 506

(decided and leaning voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ St. John's Rest of NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 44.6% 46% 43.3% 52.5% 39% 40.2% 48.4% 35.8% 46.9%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 20.8% 43.8% 46.8% 41.9% 39.7% 38.9%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 12.8% 10.6% 15% 23.7% 12.7% 8.7% 7.9% 22.4% 10.4%
Another Party 3.5% 4.4% 2.6% 3% 4.5% 4.4% 1.8% 2.1% 3.8%
Unweighted Frequency 540 281 259 66 114 168 192 228 312
Weighted Frequency 540 261 279 121 131 161 127 111 429
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held
today, which party would you vote
for?
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and
Labrador led by Dwight Ball
Progressive Conservative Party of
Newfoundland and Labrador led by
Ches Crosbie
Newfoundland and Labrador New
Democratic Party led by Gerry Rogers
Another Party
Undecided
What is your gender?
Male
Female
What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and
Labrador led by Dwight Ball
Progressive Conservative Party of
Newfoundland and Labrador led by
Ches Crosbie
Newfoundland and Labrador New
Democratic Party led by Gerry Rogers
Another Party
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 30th,
2018 and November 1st, 2018, among a sample of 634 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of Newfoundland and Labrador.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 6.15%, Females: +/- 5.5%,
18-34 age group: +/- 17.6%, 35-49 age group: +/- 9.95%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.69%, 65+
age group: +/- 6.47%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.