A Survey of

Probability Concepts
Pertemuan ke-5
 Definitions
• PROBABILITY (P): A value between zero and one,
inclusive, describing the relative possibility
(chance or likelihood) an event will occur.
• The P is frequently expressed as a decimal or
fraction
• The P of 1 represents something that is certain to
happen, and the P of 0 represents something that
can not happen
• The closer P is to 1, the more sure we are it will
happen. The closer P is to 0, the more possible it
is the event will happen.
 Cont..
• The use of probability theory allows the
decision maker with only limited
information to analyze the risks and
minimize the gamble inherent
• Three key words of probability
– Experiment: The observation of some activity
or the act of taking some measurement.
– Outcome: A particular result of an experiment.
– Event: A collection of one or more outcomes
of an experiment.
 Approaches to Probability
• The objectives approaches:
– Classical probability
– Empirical probability/ relative frequency
• The subjective approach
 Approaches to Probability
• Classical probability is based on the assumption
that the outcomes of an experiment are equally
likely.
• It is unnecessary to do an experiment to
determine probability of an event occurring
Number of favorable outcomes
Probabilit y of an event =
Total number of possible outcomes
• Mutually Exclusive Events: The occurrence of any one
event means that none of the others can occur at the
same time.
• Collectively exhaustive: At least one of the events
must occur when an experiment is conducted
 Cont..
• Empirical/Relative Frequency Concept : The
probability of an event happening in the
long run is determined by observing what
fraction of the time like events happened in
the past :
Number of times event occured in the past
Probability of event =
Total number of observations
 Cont..
• Subjective probability: The likelihood
(probability) of a particular event
happening that is assigned by an individual
based on whatever information is
available.
 Basic Rules of Probability
Rules of addition:
• The Special rule of addition. If two events A and
B are mutually exclusive, the special rule of
addition states that the probability of A or B
occurring equals the sum of their respective
probabilities :
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
• The complement rule is used to determine the
probability of an event occurring by subtracting
the probability of the event not occurring from 1.
If P(A) is the probability of event A and P(~A) is
the complement of A,
P(A) + P(~A) = 1 or P(A) = 1 - P(~A).
 Cont..
Rules of addition :
• The General rule of addition. If A and B are
two events that are not mutually exclusive,
then P(A or B) is given by the following
formula:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
• The Joint Probability is a probability that
measures the likelihood that two or more
events will happen concurrently.
 Cont..
Rule of Multiplication :
• The special rule of multiplication requires
that two events A and B are independent.
• Two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence of one has no effect on the
probability of the occurrence of the other.
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B)
 Cont..
• Conditional probability is the probability of a
particular event occurring, given that another
event has occurred.
– Note : The probability of the event A given that the
event B has occurred is denoted by P(A|B).
• The general rule of multiplication use to find
the joint probability that two events will occur,
one after the other
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B/A)
where P(B/A) stand for the probability B will occur
given that A has already occurred
 Example
• Survey terhadap 200 eksekutif jika ditawari
posisi yang lebih baik di perusahaan lain
Masa Kerja
Loyalitas < 1 th 1 – 5 th 6 – 10 th > 10 th Total
Tidak 10 30 5 75 120
Pindah
Pindah 25 15 10 30 80
Berapa prob. eksekutif yang tidak pindah dan
punya masa kerja lebih dari 10 tahun ?
 Tree Diagrams

• A tree diagram is very useful for portraying

conditional and joint probabilities and is
particularly useful for analyzing business
decisions involving several stages.
 Bayes’ Theorem
• If two mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events :
P( Ai ) * P( B | Ai )
P( Ai | B) 
P( A1) * P( B | A1)  P( A2) * P( B | A2)
– Prior probability : the initial probability based
on the present level of information
– Posterior probability : a revised probability
based on additional information
 Example

• Di Fakultas Ekonomi, 30% mahasiswa dan

20% mahasiswi memilih jurusan
Manajemen. Diketahui 45% yang kuliah di
FE adalah mahasiswi. Jika diambil satu
sampel random, berapakah probabilitas
yang memilih jurusan Manajemen adalah
mahasiswi/berapakah probabilitas
mahasiswi dengan ketentuan memilih
jurusan manajemen?
A1 = mahasiswa
A2 = mahasiswi
B1 = manajemen
B2 = non manajemen

Prior Prob Cond. Prob Joint Prob Posterior Prob

Event
P(Ai) P(B1/Ai) P(Ai and B1) P(Ai/B1)
Mahasiswa (A1) 0.55 0.3 0.165 0.6471
Mahasiswi (A2) 0.45 0.2 0.09 0.3529
0.255 1.00
P(A2/B1) 0.3529
• If there are n mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive events :
P( Ai ) * P( B | Ai )
P( Ai | B) 
P( A1) * P( B | A1)  P( A2) * P( B | A2)  ...  P( An ) * P( B / An )
 Example
• Suatu pabrik VCR membeli microchip
(LS24) dari 3 suplier dengan komposisi :
Hall (30%), Schuller (20%), Crawford
(50%). Berdasarkan pengalaman, 3% LS24
dari Hall, 5% dari Schuller, dan 4% dari
Crawford rusak. Jika diambil satu sampel
random LS24 dan ternyata rusak, berapa
probabilitas LS24 tersebut berasal dari
Schuller ?
A1 = Hall B1 = rusak
A2 = Schuller B2 = baik
A3 = Crawford

Prior Prob Cond. Prob Joint Prob Posterior Prob

Event
P(Ai) P(B1/Ai) P(Ai and B1) P(Ai/B1)
Hall (A1) 0.3 0.03 0.009 0.2308
Schuller (A2) 0.2 0.05 0.01 0.2564
Crawford (A3) 0.5 0.04 0.02 0.5128
0.039 1.00

P(A2/B1) 0.2564
 Principles of Counting
• The Multiplication Formula: If there are m
ways of doing one thing and n ways of
doing another thing, there are m x n ways
of doing both.
 Cont..

• Permutation: Any arrangement of r objects

selected from n possible objects.
n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!
– Note : The order of arrangement is important
in permutations.
 Example
• Terdapat 8 mesin tetapi hanya terdapat 3
ruang mesin dalam sebuah toko mesin.
Berapa cara berbeda delapan mesin dapat
disusun pada tiga ruangan yang tersedia?
Jawab: 8P3
8!
8 P3 
(8  3)!
 Cont..
• Combination: The number of ways to
choose r objects from a group of n objects
without regard to order.
n!
nCr 
r!(n  r )!