California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

October 2018
 Sales Had the 2nd Largest Drop in the Last 6
Months
California, October 2018 Sales: 397,060 Units, -3.7% YTD, -7.9% YTY
700,000

600,000
Oct-17: Oct-18:
431,070 397,060
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 California Home Sales Continued on a
Declining Trend
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Bay Area Sales Bounced Back but Still Down
from Last Year
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

-3.0%
0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Southern California Home Sales Continued
to Have the Biggest Fall among All Regions
YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%

30%

20%

10%
-7.8%
0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Central Valley Sales Remained on a Declining
Trend in October
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

-2.6%
0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Sales Declined in Sub-Million Dollar Markets
October 2018 (Year-to-Year)
25%
19.1%
20%
15%
10%
5% 1.6%
0%
-5% -2.1% -2.2%
-10% -6.6%
-8.5%
-15% -11.1%
-20%
-20.6%
-25%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Home Prices Continued to Grow but at a
More Moderate Pace
California, October 2018: $572,000, -1.2% MTM, +4.7% YTY
Oct-18:
P:May-07
$700,000 $572,000
$594,530 Oct-17:
$546,430
$600,000

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Prices Growing at Mid Single-Digit Rate
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling off
as Markets Move into Off Season
$600,000 Condo

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Oct-18:
Oct-17:
$476,440
$300,000 $450,880

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-05

Jul-07

Aug-09
Jan-10
Dec-07

Jul-12

Aug-14
Jan-15
Dec-12

Jul-17
Dec-17
Sep-06
Feb-07

Sep-11
Feb-12

Sep-16
Feb-17
Oct-08

Oct-13

Oct-18
May-08

Mar-09

May-13

Mar-14

May-18
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06

Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11

Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile
Year-over-Year Price Growth
14%

11.8%
12% 11.3%

10%
8.6%
8%
6.5% 6.4%
6% 5.2% 4.9%
4.4%
4% 3.7%

2%

0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 0%
20%
40%
60%

-60%
-40%
-20%
1/1/2009
4/1/2009
7/1/2009
10/1/2009
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
10/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

10/1/2011

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
10/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013

Listing Price
7/1/2013
10/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
10/1/2014
Sales Price

1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

10/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
10/1/2016
1/1/2017
Price Tapering Off in the Near Term

4/1/2017
7/1/2017
10/1/2017
Slow Growth in List Price Suggests Sales

1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018
10/1/2018
 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
10/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
10/1/2011
1/1/2012

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes

4/1/2012

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

7/1/2012
10/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
10/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
10/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
Reduced-Price Listings

Reduced-Price Listings

Median Reduction
7/1/2015
10/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
10/1/2016
1/1/2017
4/1/2017
7/1/2017
10/1/2017
1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018
43.6%

10/1/2018
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 43.6%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4%

0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
4.4%5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
 Price Per Square Increased from Last Year,
but Virtually Unchanged from September
October 2018: $282, Down 0.0% MTM, Up 4.4% YTY
$400
Oct-18:
$350 Oct-17: $282
$270
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales Price -to-List Price Hit the Lowest
Level in 21 Months
October 2018: 98.1%, -0.4% MTM, -0.8% YTY
Oct-17:
Oct-18:
98.9%
98.1%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0% 99.7%
99.5% 99.6%
99.5%
99.5%

99.0%

98.5% 98.3%

98.0%

97.5%

97.0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

Oct-17 Oct-18

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Time on Market Rises as the Market Slows
California, October 2018: 26.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Median Time on Market by Percentile
Median Time on Market
35
30
30 27
25 23 24 23
22 22 22 22 22 21 21
20 18 19 19 19 18 18 19
16
15
10
5
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile

Oct-17 Oct-18

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Dipped from September as
Sales Climbed from Prior Month
October 2017: 3.0 Months; October 2018: 3.6 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Continued to Increase for the
7th Consecutive Month
Year-over-Year % Chg
35%
30% 28.0%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Housing Supply Improved across the Board,
Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment
Oct 2018
Active Listing
50%
43.9%
40.1%
40%
31.7% 30.7%
30% 28.0%

20% 14.5%
9.1%
10%

0%

-10% -6.2%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Fall
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0 4.0
3.3
3.0
2.5
2.0

1.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Increased in All Regions

Oct-17 Oct-18
35,000
32,269

30,000

24,539
25,000
Active Listings

20,000

15,000
12,218
10,326
10,000 7,830
4,789
5,000 2,737
2,497

0
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Increased in All Regions
Oct 2018

Sales Active Listings

70% 63%
60%
50%
Year-to-Year % Chg

40%
32%
30%

20% 18%
10%
10%
0%
-3% -3% -3%
-10%
-8%
-20%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions
Unsold Inventory Index
10 9.4
9
8.2
8
7
6
5 4.0 4.64.6
3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.2 3.6
4.0
4 3.6 3.7
3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0
3 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.4

2
1
0

Oct-17 Oct-18

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings by Month
Active Listings by Month
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2017 2018