POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 16TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM AST

UltraPoll - New Brunswick

Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
New Brunswicker’s Opinions on the Election
Results and Legislative Cooperation
16th November 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey was conducted between October
30th to November 2nd, 2018 among a sample
of 572 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in New Brunswick. The survey was conducted
using automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
4.1% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NEW BRUNSWICKERS WANT PARTY COOPERATION; PCs AND LIBERALS TIED

16 November 2018 (Ottawa ON) – A majority of New Brunswickers want the parties to work
together in the Legislature with the Liberals and PCs are tied in voter intent.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten
provincial polls. The poll surveyed 572 New Brunswick residents between October 30th to
November 2nd. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 % and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“This poll was taken before Blaine Higgs became Premier, but it looks his actions lines up
with public opinion”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “New
Brunswickers are clearly indicating that they want all parties to work together in the New
Brunswick legislature and think that it is time for a change.”

Just under 61% of respondents said that it is a time for a change in New Brunswick, with only
Liberal voters saying that they think that New Brunswick should stay the course.

Just over 78% of New Brunswickers believe that the parties in New Brunswick should find a
way to work together and not have an election soon, with just over 59% agreeing.

The poll also found that the PCs and the Liberals are exactly tied among decided and
leaning voters with 33.7% support. The Greens led by David Coon enjoy 15.7% support while
the People’s Alliance with Kris Austin has 12.7%. The NDP with Jennifer McKenzie at the
helm have 3%.

The PCs enjoy nearly a six point lead over the Liberals among men, while the Liberals lead
the PCs by six among women. The Liberals lead among voters under the age of 35 and the
65+ age cohort, the PCs lead among voters between the ages of 35 to 64.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

Undecided 9.6%
Another Party 1%
NDP 2.8%

Progressive Conservatives 31%

People's Alliance 11.9%

All Voters

Greens 13.8%

Liberals 29.9%
Decided and Leaning
Progressive Conservatives Liberals Greens People's Alliance NDP Another Party
Another Party 1.1%
NDP 3%
Undecided
People's Alliance 12.7%

Progressive Conservatives 33.7%

Greens 15.7%
Decided and Leaning

Liberals 33.7%

Progressive Conservatives Liberals Greens People's Alliance NDP Another Party

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

33.7%
33.7%
15.7%
Total

12.7%
3%
1.1%

33.4%
Fredericton area

27.1%
16.3%
21.5%
1.1%
0.6%

27.4%
42.0%
Moncton area

15.8%
11.6%
1.4%
1.8%

35.2%
Rest of New Brunswick

33.3%
15.5%
11.1%
3.8%
1%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

PC, Higgs Liberal, Gallant Green, Coon People's Alliance, Austin NDP, McKenzie Another Party
 How satisfied are you with the results of the provincial
How satisfied are you with the results of the provincial election in
election in September? September?

Total 9% 23.2% 24.6% 30.3% 12.9%

PC 7.1% 26.7% 30.9% 29.5% 5.9%

Liberal 10.7% 21% 20.8% 29.9% 17.5%

Green 13.6% 26.9% 25.7% 30.6%

People's Alliance 8.2% 29.7% 27.1% 34.1%

NDP 23.4% 7% 41.8% 27.8%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Not sure

Do you think it is time for change, or should New Brunswick

stay the course?

Total 23.7% 60.6% 15.8%

PC 5.9% 85.7% 8.4%

Liberal 52.5% 25.3% 22.2%

Green 16.5% 71.2% 12.2%

People's Alliance 92.8%

NDP 33.2% 51.2% 15.5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Stay the course Time for a change Not sure

 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement; “The
parties in the New Brunswick legislature should find a way to
work together and not have another election so soon.”

Total 59.1% 19.2% 8.8% 8% 5%

PC 42% 26.9% 11.8% 14.2% 5.1%

Liberal 74.8% 12.9% 5.2%

Green 72.6% 15.3% 8%

People's Alliance 48.3% 19.1% 13.5% 13.4% 5.8%

NDP 77.2% 18.5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- Fredericton Moncton Rest of New
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 area area Brunswick
Progressive Conservatives led by Blaine
31% 32.5% 29.4% 23.2% 34.2% 35.3% 30.3% 32.7% 25.3% 31.9%
Higgs
Liberals led by Brian Gallant 29.9% 26.5% 33.2% 33.5% 24% 27.9% 35% 27.1% 36.4% 29%
Greens led by David Coon 13.8% 13.3% 14.4% 14.3% 14.4% 15.2% 10.9% 16.3% 12.6% 13.6%
People's Alliance led by Kris Austin 11.9% 13.9% 10% 10.1% 14.9% 11% 11.7% 21.5% 10.9% 10.2%
NDP led by Jennifer McKenzie 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% 5% 2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 1.3% 3.5%
Another Party 1% 1.2% 0.8% - 1.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.7% 1%
Undecided 9.6% 9.5% 9.7% 13.9% 7.7% 7.4% 9.7% 0.7% 11.8% 10.8%
Unweighted Frequency 572 319 253 81 110 190 191 103 144 325
Weighted Frequency 572 293 304 145 144 175 132 84 93 420

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

18- 35- 50- Fredericton Moncton Rest of New
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 area area Brunswick
Progressive Conservatives led by Blaine
31.9% 34% 30% 24.4% 34.2% 36.6% 31.5% 33.4% 25.8% 33%
Higgs
Liberals led by Brian Gallant 31.9% 28.6% 35.2% 34.2% 27.6% 29.4% 37.5% 27.1% 39.5% 31.2%
Greens led by David Coon 14.8% 13.9% 15.7% 16.8% 15.3% 15.5% 11.3% 16.3% 14.9% 14.5%
People's Alliance led by Kris Austin 12.1% 13.9% 10.3% 10.1% 14.9% 11% 12.4% 21.5% 10.9% 10.4%
NDP led by Jennifer McKenzie 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% 5% 2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 1.3% 3.5%
Another Party 1% 1.2% 0.8% - 1.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.7% 1%
Undecided 5.4% 5.3% 5.5% 9.5% 3.2% 4.2% 4.9% - 5.9% 6.4%
Unweighted Frequency 572 319 253 81 110 190 191 103 144 325
Weighted Frequency 572 293 304 145 144 175 132 84 93 420

(decided and leaning voters)

18- 35- 50- Fredericton Moncton Rest of New
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 area area Brunswick
Progressive Conservatives led by Blaine
33.7% 35.9% 31.7% 27% 35.3% 38.2% 33.1% 33.4% 27.4% 35.2%
Higgs
Liberals led by Brian Gallant 33.7% 30.2% 37.2% 37.7% 28.5% 30.7% 39.4% 27.1% 42% 33.3%
Greens led by David Coon 15.7% 14.7% 16.6% 18.6% 15.8% 16.2% 11.9% 16.3% 15.8% 15.5%
People's Alliance led by Kris Austin 12.7% 14.7% 10.9% 11.2% 15.4% 11.5% 13.1% 21.5% 11.6% 11.1%
NDP led by Jennifer McKenzie 3% 3.3% 2.7% 5.5% 3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.1% 1.4% 3.8%
Another Party 1.1% 1.3% 0.9% - 2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.8% 1%
Unweighted Frequency 543 302 241 74 106 182 181 103 135 305
Weighted Frequency 543 277 287 132 140 168 126 84 87 393
 How satisfied are you with the results of the provincial election in
September?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Very satisfied 9% 9.7% 8.4% 11.9% 10.6% 7.3% 6.4% 7.2% 6% 10.1%
Somewhat satisfied 23.2% 27.3% 19.3% 15% 30% 23.9% 23.9% 31% 22.6% 21.8%
Somewhat dissatisfied 24.6% 24.3% 24.8% 24.8% 22.2% 26.9% 23.8% 18.5% 32.1% 24.1%
Very dissatisfied 30.3% 28.8% 31.6% 18.9% 29.6% 35.1% 37.1% 32.9% 23.9% 31.2%
Not sure 12.9% 9.8% 15.9% 29.4% 7.6% 6.7% 8.9% 10.4% 15.4% 12.9%
Unweighted Frequency 572 319 253 81 110 190 191 103 144 325
Weighted Frequency 572 293 304 145 144 175 132 84 93 420

Total PC Liberal Green People's Alliance NDP Another Party Undecided

Very satisfied 9% 7.1% 10.7% 13.6% 8.2% 23.4% 5.8% 0.9%
Somewhat satisfied 23.2% 26.7% 21% 26.9% 29.7% - 10.2% 13.5%
Somewhat dissatisfied 24.6% 30.9% 20.8% 25.7% 27.1% 7% - 18.9%
Very dissatisfied 30.3% 29.5% 29.9% 30.6% 34.1% 41.8% 76.5% 20.2%
Not sure 12.9% 5.9% 17.5% 3.2% 0.9% 27.8% 7.6% 46.5%
Unweighted Frequency 572 188 158 79 75 13 7 52
Weighted Frequency 572 185 178 83 71 17 6 57

Do you think it is time for change, or should New Brunswick stay the
course?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Stay the course 23.7% 25.7% 21.7% 25.4% 18.5% 25.9% 24.4% 20.1% 22.1% 24.7%
Time for a change 60.6% 58.9% 62.1% 60.9% 69.6% 59.1% 52.4% 65% 53.9% 61.2%
Not sure 15.8% 15.4% 16.1% 13.7% 11.9% 15% 23.2% 14.9% 24% 14.1%
Unweighted Frequency 572 319 253 81 110 190 191 103 144 325
Weighted Frequency 572 293 304 145 144 175 132 84 93 420

Total PC Liberal Green People's Alliance NDP Another Party Undecided

Stay the course 23.7% 5.9% 52.5% 16.5% 2.9% 33.2% 15.9% 25.1%
Time for a change 60.6% 85.7% 25.3% 71.2% 92.8% 51.2% 76.5% 35.1%
Not sure 15.8% 8.4% 22.2% 12.2% 4.4% 15.5% 7.6% 39.8%
Unweighted Frequency 572 188 158 79 75 13 7 52
Weighted Frequency 572 185 178 83 71 17 6 57
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement; “The parties in the New
Brunswick legislature should find a way to work together and not have another
election so soon.”
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Very satisfied 9% 9.7% 8.4% 11.9% 10.6% 7.3% 6.4% 7.2% 6% 10.1%
Somewhat satisfied 23.2% 27.3% 19.3% 15% 30% 23.9% 23.9% 31% 22.6% 21.8%
Somewhat dissatisfied 24.6% 24.3% 24.8% 24.8% 22.2% 26.9% 23.8% 18.5% 32.1% 24.1%
Very dissatisfied 30.3% 28.8% 31.6% 18.9% 29.6% 35.1% 37.1% 32.9% 23.9% 31.2%
Not sure 12.9% 9.8% 15.9% 29.4% 7.6% 6.7% 8.9% 10.4% 15.4% 12.9%
Unweighted Frequency 572 319 253 81 110 190 191 103 144 325
Weighted Frequency 572 293 304 145 144 175 132 84 93 420

Total PC Liberal Green People's Alliance NDP Another Party Undecided

Very satisfied 9% 7.1% 10.7% 13.6% 8.2% 23.4% 5.8% 0.9%
Somewhat satisfied 23.2% 26.7% 21% 26.9% 29.7% - 10.2% 13.5%
Somewhat dissatisfied 24.6% 30.9% 20.8% 25.7% 27.1% 7% - 18.9%
Very dissatisfied 30.3% 29.5% 29.9% 30.6% 34.1% 41.8% 76.5% 20.2%
Not sure 12.9% 5.9% 17.5% 3.2% 0.9% 27.8% 7.6% 46.5%
Unweighted Frequency 572 188 158 79 75 13 7 52
Weighted Frequency 572 185 178 83 71 17 6 57
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held Do you think it is time for change,
today, which party would you vote or should New Brunswick stay the
for? course?
Progressive Conservatives led by Stay the course
Blaine Higgs Time for a change
Liberals led by Brian Gallant Not sure
Greens led by David Coon
People’s Alliance led by Kris Austin Do you agree or disagree with the
NDP led by Jennifer McKenzie following statement; “The parties in
Another Party the New Brunswick legislature should
Undecided find a way to work together and not
have another election so soon.”
And which party are you leaning Strongly agree
towards? (only asked of respondents Somewhat agree
who were undecided in previous Somewhat disagree
question) Strongly disagree
Progressive Conservatives led by Not sure
Blaine Higgs
Liberals led by Brian Gallant What is your gender?
Greens led by David Coon Male
People’s Alliance led by Kris Austin Female
NDP led by Jennifer McKenzie
Another Party What is your age group?
Undecided 18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
How satisfied are you with the 50 to 64 years of age
results of the provincial election in 65 years of age or older
September?
Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
Not sure
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 30th,
2018 and November 2nd, 2018, among a sample of 572 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
New Brunswick. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents
were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of New Brunswick.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in New Brunswick: the
Moncton area, the Fredericton area, and the rest of New Brunswick. In the case of random
digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country
they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsamples.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.49%, Females: +/-
6.16%, 18-34 age group: +/- 10.89%, 35-49 age group: +/- 9.34%, 50-64 age group: +/- 7.11%,
65+ age group: +/- 7.11%, Moncton area: +/- 8.17%, Fredericton area: +/- 9.66%, Rest of New
Brunswick: +/- 5.43%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.