Example of Parametric Growth Curve Page 1 of 3

Example of Parametric Growth Curve

main topic interpreting results session command see also
You want to estimate the replacement rate of a certain valve on a fleet of 24 diesel engines.
1 Open the worksheet VSEAT.MTW.
2 Choose Stat > Reliability/Survival > Repairable System Analysis > Parametric Growth Curve.
3 In Variable/Start variables, enter Days.
4 In System ID, enter ID.
5 Click OK.

Session window output

Parametric Growth Curve: Days

System:  ID

Model: Power-Law Process
Estimation Method: Maximum Likelihood

Parameter Estimates

                     Standard    95% Normal CI
Parameter  Estimate     Error    Lower    Upper
Shape       4.00405     0.406  3.28239  4.88436
Scale       420.130    18.590  385.229  458.193

Test for Equal Shape Parameters
Bartlett's Modified Likelihood Ratio Chi-Square

Test Statistic  23.62
P-Value         0.425
DF                 23

Trend Tests

                   MIL-Hdbk-189        Laplace's
                TTT-based  Pooled  TTT-based  Pooled  Anderson-Darling
Test Statistic      34.73   33.20       9.13    5.73             50.59
P-Value             0.000   0.000      0.000   0.000             0.000
DF                    142      96

Graph window output

mk:@MSITStore:C:\Program%20Files%20(x86)\Minitab\Minitab%2016\resources\1033... 16-11-2018
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Interpreting the results

The estimate of the shape (4.004) is greater than 1, indicating that the failure rate is increasing. You can be 95% confident that the interval
(3.282, 4.884) contains the true shape.
The test for equal shape parameters indicates that there is not enough evidence to say that the systems come from populations with different
shapes (P-Value = 0.425). The pooled estimate of the shape is valid.
The tests for trend are all significant (P-Value = 0.000). This means that there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no
trend in your data. You can conclude that the increasing trend is significant.
The event plot seems to show a pattern of failures that become more frequent as time goes on.

mk:@MSITStore:C:\Program%20Files%20(x86)\Minitab\Minitab%2016\resources\1033... 16-11-2018
Example of Parametric Growth Curve Page 3 of 3

The plot of the MCF versus time shows a curve that is concave up. This plot is consistent with a shape that is greater than one, or a system
that is deteriorating.

mk:@MSITStore:C:\Program%20Files%20(x86)\Minitab\Minitab%2016\resources\1033... 16-11-2018