I

1. Read the following text very carefully.

Population: Evaluation and Future

Birth and death rates are the most important determinants of population growth; in some
countries, net migration1 is also important in this regard. To calculate population growth rates,
demographers take the difference between births and deaths in a given time period, add the net
number of migrants (which (1) for the world as a whole is 0), and divide that number by the total
population. For example, there are now about 136 million births and 58 million deaths worldwide
annually, adding a net of 78 million new inhabitants to a global population of 6.7 billion, a growth
rate of nearly 1.2 percent.
Until the mid-19th century birth rates were only slightly2 higher than death rates, so the human
population grew very slowly. However, the industrial era brought with it a new demographic era.
How did industrialization alter population growth rates so sharply? One central factor was the
mechanization of agriculture, which (2) enabled 3to produce more food. As food supplies
expanded, average levels of nourishment4 rose, and vulnerability to chronic and contagious
diseases declined over succeeding generations. Improvements in medical care and public health
services also helped people to live longer, so death rates fell.
In addition, desired family size tended to decrease. After several decades of lower mortality,
people realized that they did not have to have so many children to achieve their desired family
size, so birth rates began to fall as well. Besides that, as women found many more opportunities
to enter the labour force, they (3) were less inclined to devote resources to childrearing5 rather
than paid work. Furthermore, the costs of raising children also increased discouraging a large
number of children.
This phased reduction in death and birth rates is a process called the demographic transition.
The demographic transition is a well-recognized pattern, but it has shown many variations from
country to country. We cannot predict when specific demographic changes will occur in particular
countries, and it is hard to specify precisely which factors will shape them. Looking forward, a
major question for the 21st century is what happens after the demographic transition, and
whether some countries in areas such as Western Europe, where birth rates are very low, will
start striving6 to raise fertility. More important in terms of environment and health, however, is
the question of how to help countries that are lagging7on the transition path.

1
saldo migratório
2
ligeiramente
3
permitiu
4
nutrição
5
criação de filhos
6
incentivar;motivar
7
atrasados
 Adapted from: https://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/unit/text.php?unit=5&secNum=2

A. Find the words in the text that mean the following. Paragraph numbers are given in brackets.
a.The rate of people moving into a country less the number of people moving out of the same country.
(para.1)

b.A person who studies changes in numbers of births, marriages, deaths, etc. in an area over a period of
time. (para.1)
c.extending or spread throughout the world. (para.1)
d.a person or animal that lives in a particular place (para.1)
e. food that you need to grow and stay healthy (para.2)
f. the relative frequency of deaths in a specific population (para.3)

B. Note the words underlined in the text. Indicates its relatives.

1.
2.
3.

C. Say whether these statements are TRUE or FALSE. Correct the false ones.

1. Birth, net migration and death rates are the most important determinants to population
growth rates.

2. Until the 19th century birth rates were higher than death rates, so the human population
grew very slowly.

3. Industrialization didn’t interfere in population growth.

4. The more the food supplies expanded, the less the vulnerability to chronic and contagious
5. Improvements in medical care led to an increased life expectancy.
6. The desired family size tended to increase since industrialization.

D. Answer the following question, using your own words as far as possible.

1. How do demographers calculate the population growth rate?

2. Which factors, in the industrial era, contributed to population growth?
3. What happened with the desired family size since the mid-19th? Why did it
occurred?
4. In many countries there was a reduction in death and birth rates over succeeding
generations. What name is given to this process?

5. Which are the major questions with we will have to deal in the future?