Beh Sci 358 – Violence and War

Hell Freezes Over…

Prof. Wilbur Scott

Well, not any more. However, …
- “Osama” is not a country, nor did he represent one 6L-162
- his followers do not have an Army, Air Force, or Navy, ph. 333-0099
- but they did/do have a game plan: do you know what it is? 1

- and, do you know how to win a game like this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSOoV3Ajp
Yw

2
A miracle of sorts…
10 April 1998,
The Good Friday Agreement…

British Prime Minister Tony Blair

and Republic of Ireland Taoiseach
(top leader) Bertie Ahem sign
The Good Friday Agreement

approved by Martin McGuiness,

approved by David Trimble, top leader of top IRA leader, and
Ulster Unionist Party, and John Hume, one Gerry Adams,
Founders of N Ireland Civil Rights Association top leader of Sinn Fein

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpK3SvLgFow

One glitch: the only political party/paramilitary not to agree

was Rev. Ian Paisley and his Democratic Unionist Party
“Good Friday” Agreement
Signed on Good Friday, 10 April 1998:

The Agreement states:

1) Northern Ireland shall remain part of Britain; however,
…if at some point in the future there is a re-unification
referendum supported by > 50% of the people in N Ireland and > 50
% of people in the Republic of Ireland, the Britain will facilitate the
creation of a united Ireland…

Who made compromises here?

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“Good Friday” Agreement
(continued):

2) Northern Ireland shall be governed by a new Northern

Ireland Assembly; however,
…the Assembly shall consist of 108 elected
representatives, 54 from Protestant areas and 54 from
Catholic areas…

3) An Executive Prime Minister shall be selected by the

Northern Ireland Assembly

Who made compromises here?

5
And,
…The Agreement must be approved in by
popular vote by the people of Northern Ireland

a full copy of the Agreement was delivered to

every household in N Ireland and the vote
held on 22 May

71% of voters in Northern Ireland said “Yes,”

and 93% said “Yes” in the Republic of Ireland

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcrN4wYCUwI
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Other provisions:
- all paramilitaries shall begin the
process of getting rid of their weapons
(decommissioning)
- jailed “political” prisoners shall be
released from Long Kesh and given
letters of immunity from further
prosecution
- the Royal Ulster Constabulary
(RUC) shall be disbanded and replaced
by a nonsectarian Police Service of
Northern Ireland (PSNI)
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However, without Rev. Paisley/DUP,
The Good Friday Agreement was on
life support, its prospects fading away

… so, in 2007, Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein)

nominated Rev. Paisley to be N Ireland’s
Prime Minister,

At first Paisley refused, then in a stunning reversal, accepted

…
Hell Froze Over!
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Hell freezes over …

Rev Ian Paisley (Presbyterian minister)

and Gerry Adams, leaders of DUP and 9
Sinn Fein, respectively, for more than 30 years
Hell freezes over …
https://www.channel4.com/news/ian-paisley-
dup-democratic-unionsts-northern-ireland

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar
/21/martin-mcguinness-northern-ireland-
former-deputy-first-minister-dies
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/film/the-
journey-review-ludicrous-retelling-of-
mcguinness-and-paisley-paths-to-peace-
1.3068633
Rev Ian Paisley (Presbyterian minister)
and Gerry Adams, leaders of DUP and 10
Sinn Fein, respectively, for more than 30 years
“the Troubles” - late 1960s  10 April 1998*
Casualty count
Responsible group Killings**
Additional statistics:
Republican paramilitaries 2058
Shootings 36,923
Loyalist paramilitaries 1026
Armed robberies 22,539
RUP/British Security Forces 363
Persons unknown 82 Bombings* 16,209
Irish security forces 5 Arson 2,225
3534 * includes attempted bombings
Status of victim
Civilian 1855
Members of Security Forces 1123

* Date of “Good Friday Accord”

** “Politically” connected/motivated killings
“the Troubles” - late 1960s  10 April 1998
Casualty count
Republican paramilitaries’ Killings* 2,058 %
British Forces (in/outside N. Ireland) 744 36.2
British Army, Ulster Defence Regiment, Contractors 56.1%
Ulster Security Forces 335 16.3
RUC Officers, Prison Officers, Contractors
Loyalist Paramilitary Personnel 57 2.8
N. Ireland Officials 17 .8
Unionist/Loyalist Politicians, Judiciary
Civilians in N. Ireland
Sectarian killings of Protestant civilians 150 7.3
Other intentional/unintentional killings 608 29.5
Others 86 4.2 43.9%
Suspected informants, “Law” violators
Civilians in Britain 61 2.9
British “VIPs,” Bystander civilians
* 88% of these killings claimed by IRA
“the Troubles” - late 1960s  10 April 1998
Casualty count
Loyalist paramilitaries’ Killings* 1,026 %
British Forces (in/outside N. Ireland) 4 .3
British Army, Ulster Defence Regiment, Contractors
Ulster Security Forces 10 .7
RUC Officers, Prison Officers, Contractors
Republican Paramilitary Personnel 41 4.0
N. Ireland Officials 31 3.0
Nationalist/Republican Politicians
Civilians in N. Ireland
Sectarian killings of Catholic civilians 717 69.9
Other intentional/unintentional killings 161 15.7 92.0%
Others 16 1.6
Suspected informants, “Law” violators
Civilians in Republic of Ireland 46 4.5

* 47%, 25% of these killings claimed by UVF, UDA/UFF, respectively

“the Troubles” - late 1960s  10 April 1998
Casualty count
British/N.I. Security Forces’ Killings 363 %
Republican Paramilitary Personnel 146 40.2
Loyalist Paramilitary Personnel 18 4.9
assorted N. Ireland civilians 199 54.9
Ralf Dahrendorf,
Likelihood of Group Conflict
Situation I: Superimposed Situation II: Cross-Cutting
Authority/Social Identifiers Authority/Social Identifiers
Authority Divides Ralf Dahrendorf
1929 – 2009
A A long-time Prof.
B of Sociology,
B Berlin University,
London School of
Economics

Racial/Ethnic, Religious Divides

In which Situation, I or II, is conflict more likely?

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i.e., Potential for Hostilities by Race/Ethnicity/Religion and Class

Class system, Society I: Class system, Society II:

higher classes

lower classes

Distributions of racial/ethnic/religious groups, “Group A” and “Group B,” in Societies I &

II – in which of these two societies is the potential for inter-group conflict higher?