The Monthly MMI®: August 2017: Despite Political Instability, Metals Build Toward Strong Month

MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.
1 of 15
The Monthly MMI®:

Despite Political Instability, Metals Build Toward Strong Month
August 2017
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 2 of 15
Table of Contents
1. Introduction/Overview/Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs
2. Aluminum MMI® - July 2017
3. Copper MMI® - July 2017
4. Stainless MMI® - July 2017
5. Raw Steels MMI® - July 2017
6. Rare Earths MMI® - July 2017
7. Automotive MMI® - July 2017
8. Construction MMI® - July 2017
9. Renewables MMI® - July 2017
10. Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES) MMI® - July 2017
11. Global Precious Metals MMI® - July 2017
12. A Note on MetalMiner's Price Outlooks and Benchmarking Capability

Introduction and Overview

Thank you for taking a look at a very exciting offering we launched in January 2012 here at
MetalMiner. The genesis behind creating a range of indexes began with a phone call from one
of our readers, a very large oil and services firm. We spoke with a commodity analyst who
called to ask a very simple question: “Do you know of any indexes besides the BLS indexes
that can help me track what is happening for a range of metal products that I buy?”
We asked a set of follow-up questions – what metals do you buy, and what do you perceive as
the limitations of existing BLS data?
The company buys a range of steel, stainless steel and nickel alloy high-pressure semi-finished
products. The BLS data typically tracks only one single product/grade and, more importantly,
bears little resemblance to what the company had paid for the range of products. The
commodity analyst asked if we could do better.
We couldn’t promise a resounding “Yes” to that question yet (you’ll need to be the judge), but
we said we’d at least take a shot. The 10 MMI reports that appear in this document represent
our best initial attempt to devise a range of indexes that would provide value in the market
using the following guidelines as the basis:
1. Each index should represent a basket of metals or raw materials (depending on the
category) that impact the cost structure for that particular metal market (e.g. coking
coal, scrap, and iron ore for steel prices)
2. The inputs should reflect the global market for that commodity. BLS indexes by default
only include US data, but that may/may not be representative of underlying global price
trends
3. Metal prices often depend upon the underlying demand for various industries (e.g. steel
prices relate to construction industry activity), hence the addition of several key industry
verticals that impact multiple metal markets
Readers can use these MMIs for a range of activities:
1. To better understand underlying month-to-month metal price trends across industries

as well as within specific metal markets
2. To use as an economic indicator, much like the ISM PMI (Purchasing Manager’s
Index) monthly numbers or the BLS PPIs (Producer Price Index)
3. To use for forecasting and predictive analytics
4. To better understand which commodities have the greatest volatility
*Please Note: Exact prices for ALL metals and raw materials in all categories are available to
MetalMiner IndXSM subscribers. Log onto http://agmetalminer.com/metals-price-index/ for more
info!
Contact Us!
Email: info@agmetalminer.com
Phone: 773.525.9750
Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs

One-Year MMI Trends
MMI Index Value (Jan. 2012 baseline = 100)

100
90 Aluminum
Automotive
Global Precious Metals
80
Construction
Copper
70 Renewables*
Raw Steels*
60
Stainless Steel
50
40
30
20 Rare Earths
10
0
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2016 2017
© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. *Renewables and Raw Steels MMIs restated for May to map the underlying markets more effectively.
After a relatively stagnant May and a slightly better June, July was a booming month for the 10
MMI sub-indexes.
Of the 10 sub-indexes, nine posted gains, with the GOES MMI the lone sub-index to decline for
our most recent readings.
Metal prices across the board had a strong month in July. Copper, in particular, drew many of
the headlines, as it hit its highest price in two years. LME copper prices rose by nearly 8% in
July. Whether copper can hold onto those gains depends on a number of things, including the
strength of the U.S. dollar and Chinese economic data.
Aluminum, too, had a strong month, and is on a bullish run, as Chinese primary aluminum rose
5% in July.
Stainless and Raw Steel MMIs also posted healthy months — although, once again, the Trump
administration's still-unresolved Section 232 investigation of steel imports is a card that has yet
to be played. If trade actions are taken by the Trump administration, they will have ripple effects
throughout the global steel marketplace.
In the automotive world, sales are lagging behind 2016's record pace. As momentum behind
electric vehicles builds, important metals like cobalt should be monitored — especially given the
political unrest in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where a majority of the world's cobalt is
mined. Political instability and violence in the country have already yielded lower production and
higher cobalt prices this year.
For more pricing insight on the exact grade, shape and alloy of the metals you purchase, visit
our newly launched MetalMiner Benchmark service. With thousands of transactional prices for
the metals you buy, the service allows you to see exactly how your price stacks up historically
and in today’s rapidly changing price environment. — Lisa Reisman, Executive Editor, MetalMiner
Monthly Aluminum MMI® Jumps to 89

100
Aluminum
Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

95
MMI®
90
85
80 July 2017
87
75
August
70 89
Up 2.3%
Index Value
65 September 2017
TBD
60
2016 2017
© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Aluminum MMI inched two points higher in July, returning to 2015 levels.
The Aluminum MMI increase was driven by a 5% increase in Chinese primary aluminum. The
LME price inched up by 1%, contrary to other base metals that have experienced higher price
increases this month.
Analysis of supply and demand might suggest quite a bullish outlook for aluminum. According
to a recent Hydro aluminum quarterly report, global primary aluminum production through Q2
of this year saw a .492 million metric ton deficit. However this deficit needs to be weighed
against increased Chinese aluminum smelting capacity of up to 2.39 million metric tons this
year, according to a recent article in Hellenic Shipping News.
Thus, we could see an oversupply situation.
However, going back to an earlier article on aluminum price direction, as expected prices
have stayed between the two limits of what is called a wedge formation. Aluminum prices
have traded in a sideways trend since April. As stated above, aluminum prices, contrary to
other base metals, have not jumped in July.
Aluminum prices tried to climb, but instead retraced back again with heavy selling volume,
which commonly signals price weakness.
We would expect to see aluminum prices climb and remain in a bullish market. [Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Aluminum MMI® collects and weights 12 global aluminum price points to provide a
unique view into aluminum price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the
Copper MMI®, how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a
note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.
Monthly Copper MMI® Surges 5 Points

100
Copper

95
MMI®
90
85
80
July 2017
75 73
70 August
78
65
Up 6.8%
Index Value
60 September 2017
TBD
55
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug
2016 2017
The Copper MMI jumped five points to 78 for our August reading, a high not seen in more than
two years (the sub-index hit 79 in January 2015).
Copper has outperformed all the other base metals this month. LME copper prices increased by
7.8% in July.
The sharp increase in copper prices came after an announcement of a possible ban of copper
scrap in China by the end of the year. The increase in copper prices was accompanied by
heavy volume, which may signal a stronger uptrend.
However, volumes declined during the final days of July and the beginning of August.
The U.S. dollar has shown weakness since the start of 2017. The fall of the dollar during
July coincided with an increase in copper prices. A weaker dollar commonly drives non-U.S.
investment into commodities that are dollar-dominated (as copper is).
The U.S. dollar remains in a strong downtrend, touching lows not seen since May 2016.
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
Even though copper prices have increased sharply this month, a price retracement could occur
some time in August or September.
Copper price dynamics, together with volumes, will provide the signals to read the short- and
long-term trend correctly. [Continued...]
The Copper MMI® collects and weights 12 global copper metal price points to provide a unique
view into copper price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Copper MMI®,
how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at)
agmetalminer (dot) com.
Monthly Stainless MMI® Up to 59

100
95 Stainless

90 MMI®
85
80
75 July 2017
55
70
August
65 59
60 Up 7.3%
Index Value
55 September 2017
TBD
50
2016 2017
The Stainless Steel MMI jumped four points this month to 59, driven by an increase in most of
the underlying metals that make up the index. That included big jumps for stainless steel coil
prices in China and LME nickel prices.
Stainless steel prices in China have recovered from previous lows last seen in May of this year.
The increase in stainless steel prices coincides with increases in other forms of steel, such as
hot-rolled coil (HRC) or plate.
Stainless steel surcharges decreased again during July due in large part to chrome, which is
negotiated quarterly, declining from $1.54/pound to $1.10/pound.
Chinese data released this month has driven positive sentiment in the steel industry.
The China steel Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a 15-month high in July, reaching a
value of 54.9. The PMI increase was caused by stronger demand — mainly at the beginning of
July — and reduced inventories.
Nickel prices also increased in July. Nickel prices rallied during the second part of July, together
with other base metals, such as copper. Nickel prices have been driven by stronger demand
from U.S. stainless steel buyers.
The current short-term uptrend appears weaker than the previous downtrend. Some additional
movements may be expected to the upside, even though the commodities outlook remains
bearish. [Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND GLOBAL PRICES.
The Stainless MMI® collects and weights 12 global stainless and nickel price points to provide
a unique view into stainless price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the
Stainless MMI®, how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a
note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.
Monthly Raw Steels MMI® Jumps 5.6%

100
95 Raw Steels

90 MMI®
85
80
75
July 2017
70
71
65 August
60 75
55 Up 5.6%
Index Value
50 September 2017
TBD
45
2016 2017
Source: MetalMiner IndX.
The Raw Steel MMI jumped up four points this month to 75, increasing by 5.6% and returning
to 2015 levels, along with copper.
Increasing Chinese steel prices have driven domestic steel prices this month. Both Chinese
hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices have experienced an uptrend since the
end of 2015. Chinese HRC prices increased 10.7% this month.
Even though the degree of movement in U.S. steel prices aren't as great as those seen in
China, U.S. prices have continued to increase. While Chinese steel prices continue to increase,
domestic prices may continue the same uptrend.
The Spread
Considering both U.S. domestic and Chinese HRC prices, the spread has continued to
decrease this month. We would expect a drop in imports if the spread continues to decline. This
would lend support to U.S. domestic HRC prices.
Domestic Scrap
Meanwhile, U.S. shredded scrap prices declined 2.4% this month.
Falling scrap prices could push domestic buyers toward scrap instead of other raw materials,
and domestic steel prices could face downward price pressure.
However, the long-term trend in scrap signals rising, not falling, prices. [Continued...]
The Raw Steels MMI® collects and weights 13 global steel and raw material price points to
provide a unique view into global steel price trends over a 30-day period. For more information
on the Raw Steels MMI®, please drop us a note at: info@agmetalminer.com.
Monthly Rare Earths MMI® Gains Point

100
90
Rare Earths

80 MMI®
70
60
July 2017
50
22
40 August
23
30
Up 4.5%
Index Value
20 September 2017
10
TBD
2016 2017
© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. MetalMiner.com
The Rare Earths MMI continued its steady climb back up toward 2015 levels, hitting 23 for our
August reading. After hitting 29 in April 2015, the sub-index fell as low as 16 last year before
slowly climbing back up this year with an uptrend that began in March.
Most of the heavy hitters in the sub-index posted price increases, namely Chinese neodymium
oxide, which rose a whopping 21% in July.
Rare-earth metals continued the uptrend which began in the spring. As our Irene Martinez
Canorea wrote last month, China produces 85% of rare earth metals, meaning Chinese
production overwhelmingly dictates the direction of this sub-index.
However, rare-earth metals can be found elsewhere, including Australia. A rare-earths mine
containing dysprosium was opened in western Australia late last month, the ABC reported.
Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan told the ABC the mine was the first of its
kind outside of China. Mining has already begun at the site, according to the report, and
approximately 60,000 tons of ore per year are expected to be extracted during the pilot stage of
the project.
South Africa is another player in the rare-earths market. Canorea wrote last month: “South
Africa could play a strategic role in rare-earth metals supply. The Steenkampskraal mine
claims to have the highest grades of rare-earth elements in the world. Moreover, the mine had
previously been in operation between 1952-1963, according to its website, and appears to
be putting in place all of the equipment and permits needed to bring the mine to production.
Rising prices will help. Nevertheless, China remains the global price setter for rare earths.”
[Continued...]
The Rare Earths MMI® collects and weights 14 global rare earth metal price points to provide a
unique view into rare earth metal price trends over a 30-day period.
Monthly Automotive MMI® Revs Up

100
Automotive

95
MMI®
90
85
80 July 2017
87
75
August
70 90
Up 3.4%
Index Value
65
September 2017
60 TBD
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug
2016 2017
The Automotive MMI hit the gas in July, rising three points to 90, a 3.4% leap.
The sub-index reached the 90-plus threshold for the first time since the February reading, when
it jumped to 92.
Although automotive sales have fallen off the record pace seen in 2016, the basket of metals
in this sub-index posted strong price gains throughout July. U.S. hot-dip galvanized (HDG)
steel rose 1.3%, while U.S. platinum and palladium bars posted increases of 2.3% and 3.4%,
respectively.
U.S. Automotive Sales Down From 2016 Figures

General Motors sales fell 15.5% in July compared with July 2016, according to Autodata Corp
sales data released Tuesday. In the year to date, GM’s sales are down 3.9% compared with the
same time frame in 2016.
GM is not the only automotive brand to see lagging U.S. sales this year.
Ford‘s July sales were down 7.4% in July compared with July 2016, and down 4.3% in the year
to date compared with the same time frame in 2016. Fiat Chrysler sales were down 10.5% in
July compared with July 2016, and 7.2% in the year to date.
Even Tesla, riding high off the hype from the forthcoming Model 3, saw its July sales fall 5.2%
below its July 2016 figures. Even so, Tesla’s year-to-date sales are 34.7% higher than its sales
for January-July 2016. [Continued...]
The Automotive MMI® collects and weights 7 metal price points used in automotive production
to provide a unique view into automotive metal trends over a 30-day period.
Monthly Construction MMI® Builds to 83

100
Construction

95
90 MMI®
85
80
75 July 2017
70 81
65 August
60 83
Up 2.5%
Index Value
55
September 2017
2016 2017 TBD
The Construction MMI picked up two points, rising 2.5% to 83 for our August reading.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data released Aug. 1, total construction spending in June is
estimated at $1,205.8 billion, down from the revised total of $1,221.6 billion in May.
However, the June spending figure is 1.6% above the June 2016 estimate of $1,186.4 billion.
In the first six months of this year, construction spending amounted to $577.0 billion, or 4.8%
percent above the $550.5 billion for the same period in 2016.
Private construction spending amounted to $940.7 billion, 0.1 percent below the May total of
$941.3 billion.
Meanwhile, public construction spending amounted to $265.1 billion, or 5.4% below the revised
May estimate of $280.3 billion. Included within public spending was: educational construction
($67.5 billion), 5.5% below the revised May estimate of $71.4 billion, and highway construction
($82.4 billion), 6.6% below the revised May estimate of $88.2 billion.
Last month’s MMI report covered concerns from builders regarding rising materials costs. A
couple of the heavy hitters in this basket of metals, Chinese rebar and H-beam steel, posted
price increases.
Should the Section 232 investigation yield tariffs or quotas on steel imports, that could
drastically impact how construction firms do business. Of course, if President Trump’s
comments to the Wall Street Journal last week are any indication, we could all be waiting for a
while before any Section 232 verdicts are handed down. [Continued...]
The Construction MMI® collects and weights 9 metal price points used within the construction
industry to provide a unique view into construction industry price trends over a 30-day period.
Monthly Renewables MMI® Rises 5 Points

100
Renewables

95
MMI®
90
85
80
July 2017
75
72
70
August
Lor
65 77
60 Up 6.9%
Index Value
55 September 2017
TBD
50
2016 2017
© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. MetalMiner.com *Index had been recalibrated in May 2017 to better account for cobalt price fluctuations
The Renewables MMI jumped 6.9% to 77 for our August reading, as prices jumped for nearly
every metal in the renewables basket sub-index.
Of eight metals listed in this sub-index, seven posted price jumps last month. Steel plate from
Japan, Korea, China and the U.S. jumped up, as did Chinese neodymium, silicon and cobalt.
The lone metal to fall this past month was U.S. grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) coil,
which fell 2.8%.
It was a much stronger July for this basket of metals than June was, when only four of the
seven metals moved up in price (Chinese steel plate, neodymium, cobalt cathodes and silicon).
Cobalt Prices Have Asian Battery Makers Looking Elsewhere

As mentioned earlier this week, Reuters reported rising cobalt prices have forced battery
makers in Asia to consider alternatives — namely, nickel.
According to the report, makers of lithium-ion batteries are looking to add more nickel to their
battery formulas instead of the increasingly costly cobalt.
As the report notes, electric vehicle demand is set to grow significantly in the coming years. As
such, automakers will be looking to cut their production costs. According to Reuters, the price of
cobalt has doubled over the last year, a product of high demand and supply shortage.
The Renewables MMI® collects and weights 8 metal price points over a 30-day period.
Monthly GOES MMI® Takes Another Dip

225
Grain-Oriented

220
215
Electrical Steel
210 GOES MMI®
205
200 July 2017
195 187
190 August
185 181
Down 3.2%
Index Value
180
175
September 2017
TBD
170
2016 2017
Global trade developments with a dose of healthy demand appear to be setting the stage for
grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) price movements for H2.
Although the big story in the U.S. involves Section 232 developments, GOES prices globally
are increasing because of several measures in both China and Europe.
According to a recent TEX Report, Japanese mills received a $100/metric ton increase for
GOES shipments to India and Southeast Asia. And, because of an anti-dumping order in China,
Baoshan has raised its prices six times this year.
Curiously, the European Union implemented a system by which a “price floor” has been
established for GOES. This price, according to TEX Report, is higher than the international
GOES price. Europe can expect to see higher-priced imports as a result.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Commerce has not released any recommendations on
the Section 232 investigation. Although GOES producer AK Steel — along with other steel
producers — has lobbied hard for some sort of import curb, the fact that no recommendations
have been made suggests the DOC acknowledges that the Section 232 investigation contains
a number of complexities across a broad range of stakeholders that have all weighed in on the
findings.
The Section 232 investigation, to some extent, has slowed down annual negotiating cycles for
manufacturing organizations, as several recently told MetalMiner at our 2018 Budgeting and
Forecasting workshop. [Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE AND THE ACTUAL GOES PRICE.
*MetalMiner is currently recruiting buyers of GOES to participate in a price benchmarking
process to provide specific GOES prices by grade. Participants would receive aggregated
anonymous price information. If you are interested in contributing and receiving price data,
please contact us - lreisman@metalminer.com.
Monthly Precious Metals MMI® Rebounds

100
Global Precious

95 Metals MMI®
90
85
July 2017
80
83
August
75 85
Up 2.4%
Index Value
70
September 2017
TBD
65
2016 2017
Here’s What Happened

• MetalMiner’s Global Precious MMI rose 2.4% to a value of 85, breaking into a new high for
2017.
• Our sub-index tracking gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices from around the globe last
hit this level in October 2016, when it reached a value of 86.
• That makes two straight Augusts (2016 and 2017) of strong performance for precious metals.
After a lackadaisical second half of 2015 and first half of 2016, the Global Precious MMI hit a
scorching 89 in August 2016 — the index’s highest peak since February 2015.
What’s Going On in the Background?

• Since we tend to keep a closer eye on the platinum group metals (PGMs) due to their
automotive applications, the U.S. platinum price tracked by the MetalMiner IndX ticked back up
2.3%, while the U.S. palladium price continued steamrolling, rising 3.4% on the month.
• These PGM prices increases, in addition to marginal upticks for gold and silver in the U.S., are
the main drivers of the index’s gain.
• As we reported in June, platinum companies continue to battle for profitability — one such
firm being South Africa’s Lonmin. After the company reopened shafts and expanded its biggest
operation a couple months ago, it’s now planning to sell excess processing capacity “of up to
500,000 platinum ounces per year, to maximize cash from processing operations and preserve
cash,” according to Reuters. The tough economic environment in South Africa, as well as
inflationary pressures on platinum mining in general, are to blame. [Continued...]
The Global Precious Metals MMI® collects and weights 14 global precious metal price points to
provide a unique view into precious metal price trends over a 30-day period.
A Note on MetalMiner's Price Outlooks and Benchmarking

MetalMiner's custom offerings help companies:
- Improve purchase timing

- Gauge expected volatility
- Create more competitive bids to customers
- Develop risk mitigation strategies
Our Monthly Buying Outlook reports include: HRC, CRC, HDG, steel plate, aluminum, copper,
nickel, tin, lead and zinc.
Our MetalMiner Benchmark allows you to see exactly how your price stacks up historically and in
today’s rapidly changing price environment.

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MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

The Monthly MMI®:

2. Aluminum MMI® - July 2017

3. Copper MMI® - July 2017

4. Stainless MMI® - July 2017

5. Raw Steels MMI® - July 2017

6. Rare Earths MMI® - July 2017

7. Automotive MMI® - July 2017

8. Construction MMI® - July 2017

9. Renewables MMI® - July 2017

10. Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES) MMI® - July 2017

11. Global Precious Metals MMI® - July 2017

12. A Note on MetalMiner's Price Outlooks and Benchmarking Capability

Introduction and Overview

Readers can use these MMIs for a range of activities:

1. To better understand underlying month-to-month metal price trends across industries

Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs

MMI Index Value (Jan. 2012 baseline = 100)

Monthly Aluminum MMI® Jumps to 89

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Thus, we could see an oversupply situation.

Monthly Copper MMI® Surges 5 Points

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

What This Means for Industrial Buyers

Monthly Stainless MMI® Up to 59

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Monthly Raw Steels MMI® Jumps 5.6%

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndX.

Monthly Rare Earths MMI® Gains Point

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. MetalMiner.com

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Monthly Automotive MMI® Revs Up

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

U.S. Automotive Sales Down From 2016 Figures

Monthly Construction MMI® Builds to 83

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Monthly Renewables MMI® Rises 5 Points

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Cobalt Prices Have Asian Battery Makers Looking Elsewhere

Monthly GOES MMI® Takes Another Dip

Jan 2004 Baseline = 100

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Monthly Precious Metals MMI® Rebounds