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21st Century Energy Vaclav Smil
21st Century Energy Vaclav Smil
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An impartial examination of some basic achieve an equivalent output, a return to
principles reveals five factors that will make solid biofuels would require an average of
the transition to a non-fossil world far more nearly 3 kg of phytomass in order to replace
difficult than is commonly realised. These a unit of fossil fuels; the ratio would be
are: the scale of the shift; the lower energy about 1.5 when substituting petrol by
density of the replacement fuels; the plant-derived ethanol. These realities would
substantially lower power density of be reflected in the extent, cost and operation
10,000
5000
Ocean
currents High-rise buildings
1000
500 Steel mills,
Tides Supermarkets refineries
0.1
101 109 1010 1011 1012 1013 1014 1015 1016 1017 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1 10 1 10 100 1000
Power (W) m2 ha Km2
replace all crude oil-derived liquid fuels with interruptions. Unfortunately, we still lack flexibility) and lower cost of coals and
phytomass-derived biofuels. Production of the means to be able to store wind- or hydrocarbons. On these three points at least,
US corn ethanol has a power density of just solar-generated electricity on a large scale. there is no urgency for an accelerated shift to
0.22 W/m2; that means that more than twice a non-fossil world: fossil fuel supplies are
the country’s entire cultivated area would be Geographical distribution is the final adequate for generations to come, new
needed in order to satisfy the country’s sobering consideration. Much is made of energies are not qualitatively superior, and
demand for liquid transportation fuel! an uneven distribution of oil and gas, but their production will not be substantially
renewable flows are also spread out cheaper.
Intermittency of supply is our fourth unevenly: cloudiness in the equatorial zone
reality check. Modern societies are reduces direct solar radiation; whole Arguments for an accelerated transition to a
dependent on massive incessant flows of stretches of continent have insufficient non-fossil world are predicated almost
energies; growing demand for fuels and wind; there are too few sites with the best entirely on concerns about climate change.
electricity fluctuates daily and seasonally, potential for geothermal, tidal or ocean Even then, because of the enormity of
but the base load–which is the minimum requisite technical and infrastructural
energy needed to meet the needs of the requirements, many decades will be needed
day–has also been increasing. Easily storable Today there is no readily to capture substantial market shares on
high-energy density fossil fuels and thermal available non-fossil energy continental or global scales. A non-fossil
electricity generating stations operate with world may be highly desirable, but getting
source that is large enough to be
high load factors (>75% of the year for there will demand great determination, cost
coal-fired stations, > 90% for nuclear plants) exploited on the requisite scale. and patience.
and so can meet these needs. In contrast,
*Vaclav Smil is a Distinguished Professor in the
because wind and direct solar radiation are energy conversions, etc. In fact, some Faculty of Environment at the University of
intermittent and far from predictable, they densely populated regions have no Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada. He is a Fellow of
can never deliver such high load factors. significant locally available sources at all the Royal Society of Canada and the author of
PV generation is still so negligible that it is and many reliably windy or sunny sites are many books and papers on energy, environment,
impossible to offer any meaningful averages, far from major load centres, which means population and economic affairs.
but annual load factors of wind generation their exploitation would require entirely
in countries with relatively large capacities, new mega-infrastructures. References
z V. Smil (2006), Transforming the 20th Century,
such as Denmark, Germany and Spain, are
New York: Oxford University Press.
just 20-25%: large wind turbines are thus Three key factors drove the 19th century z V. Smil (2006), Energy: A Beginner’s Guide,
idle for an equivalent of 270-290 days a transition to fossil fuels: declining resource Oxford: Oneworld Publishing.
year! Also, an unexpected drop-off in availability (deforestation), higher quality z V. Smil (2003), Energy at the Crossroads, MIT
generation can cause sudden supply (higher energy density, easier storage, greater Press, Cambridge, MA.