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Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) : Sector Stalwart
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) : Sector Stalwart
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) : Sector Stalwart
(R s)
1,400 3,000
155,339 crore as nearly 45% of the power equipment ordering for the
700 1,500 XIIth Plan is already complete (54% share of Bhel). Assuming a nearly
55% share of Bhel in XIIth Plan orders, we estimate 29 GW order inflows
0 0 in the power segment in FY11E-13E. In our view, Bhel will find it tough to
Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov -09 Mar-10
significantly expand its margins in FY11E-12E due to the continued rise of
commodity prices, execution of higher proportion of supercritical orders
BHEL Nif ty
(higher import content) and competitive pressures.
Comparable return matrix (%) Valuations
Stock return
(%)
1M 3M 6M 12M At the CMP of Rs 2,500, the stock is trading at a P/E of 22.8x in FY11E
BHEL 5.4 4.6 4.1 53.1
and 19.6x in FY12E. We have valued Bhel using the DCF methodology
due to the long execution period associated with its projects (~four
L&T 0.4 9.9 3.0 87.2
years). Despite strong sales visibility over the next three or four years,
Crompton
Greaves
3.6 10.8 32.0 192.2 new order growth and margins are likely to come under pressure. We
Thermax 9.2 10.7 33.3 218.6
are initiating coverage on the stock with an ADD rating.
Analyst’s name Exhibit 1: Key Financials
(Rs Crore) FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E
Chirag Shah
shah.chirag@icicisecurities.com Total Revenues 26,727 33,280 42,591 49,873
EBITDA 4,231 5,790 7,144 8,365
Net Profit 3,138 4,287 5,327 6,203
PE (x) 39.0 28.5 23.0 19.7
Target PE (x) 42.6 31.2 25.1 21.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 26.5 19.4 15.7 13.4
P/BV (x) 9.4 7.6 6.1 5.0
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
BHEL
Exhibit 3: Turnover growth of 27% CAGR in FY05-10 Exhibit 4: Capacity to double in FY08-12E
37,500 34,050 24
20
28,033
30,000
18 15
21,401
(R s cro re)
22,500 18,739
(G W)
14,525 12 10
15,000 10,336 6
7,500 6
0 0
FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 06 FY 08 FY 10E FY 12E
Exhibit 5: High share of Bhel in India’s installed capacity…. Exhibit 6: …and in the number of generation coal utility sets
(cro re u n its)
81 86 88
75 77
(G W)
80 30,000
40 15,000
0 0
FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09
A ll In d ia BHEL A ll In d ia BHEL
Exhibit 7: Bhel’s manufacturing units and service centres spread across India
Manufacturing unit
Service centre
Investment Rationale
Power generation capacity addition target of 178 GW in XIth and XIIth Plans
Attractive growth opportunities for power equipment Power demand in India, measured by peak load, has grown at 5.4%
manufacturers in India due to the aggressive power CAGR in FY04-09 to 109.8 GW driven by the robust economic growth
generation capacity addition targets set by the (GDP grew at an 8.8% CAGR) and rapid industrial development in the
government for the XIth and XIIth Plans country. However, power supply has lagged demand due to the structural
deficits in the economy and the historic underachievement of power
generation capacity addition targets (50% underachievement over the last
three five year plans). Consequently, peak load deficit in India has been in
the range of 12-16% since the beginning of the last decade.
Exhibit 8: Power supply in India has been unable to match demand due Exhibit 9: Power demand estimated by CEA to grow at a robust pace
to robust economic growth and structural deficiencies during the XI-XIIIth Plans
(G W)
(% )
Exhibit 10: Capacity addition of nearly 278 GW targeted in the XI-XIII Exhibit 11: Total 54% share enjoyed by Bhel in XI and XIIth Plan
Plans to keep pace with rising power demand ordering (to date)
360 311 90
21.1 52.8
270 211 60 16.4
(G W)
7.7
30 13.9
180 132 43.9
25.7
90 0
X I Plan X II Plan
0
X Plan XI Plan X II Plan XIII Plan BHEL C hines e players O ther players Undecided
Bhel’s revenues are estimated to grow at 22% CAGR in Bhel enjoys strong sales visibility over the next 3-4 years…
FY10-12E to Rs 49,873 crore fuelled by Bhel’s large order In the current scenario of power shortage in India, we believe Bhel will be
book (Rs 1,43,800 crore in FY10) and expanded the key beneficiary due to its strong market position (estimated power
manufacturing capacity sector order book size of Rs 120,792 crore in FY10), strong relationship
with government agencies and capacity expansion plans. Bhel enjoys a
54% share in the capacity ordered for the XIth Plan (~80 GW) providing it
strong sales visibility over the next two or three years, with revenues
estimated to grow at 22% CAGR in FY10-12E to Rs 49,873 crore (average
execution period of 3.5 years in FY12E vs. four years in FY09). Topline will
be supported by robust growth expected for the industrial segment (33%
CAGR in FY10-12E to Rs 13,701 crore) fuelled by its large order book (~Rs
15,818 crore in FY10), pick-up of industrial capex in India and initiatives by
Bhel to diversify earnings (transmission & distribution, railways and
nuclear power businesses).
In FY10, Bhel’s gross sales grew 21% YoY to Rs 34,050 crore driven by
the strong performance of the power segment. However, new order
inflows marginally declined by 1% YoY to Rs 59,031 crore contributed by
the lower orders secured from the power segment (down 11% YoY to Rs
41,976 crore).
Exhibit 12: Total revenues to grow at 22% CAGR in FY10-12E to Rs 49,873 crore
60,000
45,000 13,701
9,781
(R s cro re)
30,000 7,753
7,250
6,011 34,580 38,244
15,000 26,866
21,344
15,919
0
FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E
Power order inflows of 29 GW expected to be secured by …but limited scope to grow power segment order book in FY11E-13E
Bhel in FY11E-13E (vs. 48 GW in FY08-10)
We believe limited potential exists for Bhel to grow its power segment
order book during the next two or three years. Of the total target capacity
addition for the XIIth Plan (~100 GW), equipment orders have already
been placed for 47.2 GW capacity, with Bhel capturing a 54% share.
Assuming Bhel captures a 54% share in the remaining XIIth Plan orders,
we estimate new order inflows of 29 GW for the company during FY11E-
13E (vs. 48.1 GW order inflows in FY08-10).
Exhibit 13: Limited order inflows likely in FY11E-13E (vs. 47.5 GW in FY08-10)…
Power Segment Order Analysis GW
BHEL's orders inflow - FY08-10E 48.1
Orders remaining - XII Plan 52.8
BHEL's assumed market share 55.0
BHEL's order inflows - FY11E-13E 29.0
Exhibit 14: …consequently, power order inflows to slow down in Exhibit 15: …and total order book to peak in FY11E
FY11E…
175,000
20.0
17.0 16.5 140,000
14.6 13.8
15.0
(R s cro re)
105,000
9.7
(G W)
35,000
5.0
0
0.0 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E
FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E FY 13E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
We expect Bhel’s share in the private sector to increase in the XIIth Plan
due to the high share of private sector orders in the XIIth Plan and limited
competition from foreign equipment suppliers in ultra mega power
projects (UMPPs).
The company has also entered into joint ventures (JVs) with state
electricity boards (SEBs) for setting up supercritical power plants in
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Recently, Bhel
secured an order from the Karnataka JV for setting-up a 1,600 MW
(2x800MW) supercritical plant in Yeramarus, Karnataka. We expect Bhel to
finalise orders for supercritical sets from the remaining JVs during FY11E.
Exhibit 17: Supercritical projects of ~ Rs 22,000 crore currently in Bhel’s order book
Client name State Sector Capacity (MW) Value (Rs crore)
Andhra Pradesh Power Development Company Andhra Pradesh Private 2x800MW 2,500
Barh-II, NTPC Bihar Public 2x660MW 7,340
Prayagraj Power Generation Company Limited - JP Associates Uttar Pradesh Private 3x660MW 5,600
Raichur Power Corporation Limited Karnataka Public 2x800MW 6300
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 18: JVs entered by Bhel with SEBs to secure additional supercritical projects
Date JV Partner Capacity Location
Jan-10 Madhya Pradesh Power Generation Company 2x800MW plant Khandwa, Madhya Pradesh
Aug-09 Maharashtra State Power Generation Company 2x660 MW plant Latur, Maharashtra
Jan-09 Karnataka Power Company 2x660/800MW and 1x660/800MW Yeramarus and Edlapur in Raichur, Karnataka
Nov-08 Tamil Nadu Electricity Board 2x800 MW Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu
The tender is for the supply of 11 turbines and 11 boilers of 660 MW each
(worth Rs 40,000-45,000 crore) to be awarded by July 2010, with Bhel
assured of winning orders for at least five boilers and four turbines (6+5
in case it is the L1 bidder). Nevertheless, we expect strong price
competition in the bidding process, especially from new players as they
will look to establish themselves in the market through this bid.
With Bhel enjoying a strong position in the NTPC-DVC bid and expected
orders from SEBs, we expect the government sector to contribute a
majority of the new orders in FY11E, driving power orders to 13.8 GW (vs.
16.5 GW in FY10). A majority of these are expected to come in H1FY11.
We expect private sector ordering to remain subdued this year as majority
of private sector clients have already placed orders.
JV s w ith S EBs
49%
Its strong experience of executing power projects for the last 40-45
years; share of 64% in India’s total installed capacity of 138 GW in
FY09
Wide product portfolio covering the entire range of equipment
required to build power plants
Plans to increase installed production capacity to 20 GW by March
2012 (vs. 15 GW in FY10)
Strong service network
In our view, the prerequisite for private sector power producers to place
low bids for UMPPs made Chinese equipment suppliers the natural
choice. Consequently, Chinese players secured orders for supplying
equipment for the four UMPPs (Mundra in Gujarat, Sasan in Madhya
Pradesh, Krishnapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Tilaiya in Jharkhand).
However, with the government’s recent decision to bar foreign equipment
manufacturers from supplying equipment for UMPPs, we expect Bhel to
be the primary beneficiary due to expected bidding for new UMPPs
(Cheyyur in Tamil Nadu, Sundergarh in Orissa and Akaltara in
Chhattisgarh) over the next few months.
With the Indian economy gaining momentum (GDP to grow at 8.5% per
annum in FY11E-12E) and pick-up of industrial capex, we believe Bhel’s
Industrial segment will enjoy strong growth over the next two or three
years. Order inflow grew by 40% YoY to Rs 14,366 crore in FY10 driven
by the metallurgical and petrochemical sectors, especially for building of
CPPs (due to the significant power shortfall in the country). With demand
for cement and steel expected to rise in the backdrop of infrastructure
focused budget and stability of international crude oil prices, we expect
major industrial houses to go ahead with their capacity expansion plans,
fuelling increased demand for CPPs.
Exhibit 24: YTD FY10 CPP projects dominate Bhel’s Industrial segment order flows due to significant power shortage in India
Client name Project type Capacity Value (Rs crore)
Hindalco Industries Limited CPP 6x150MW 2,008
Indian Oil Corp. (IOC) CPP 20MW 105
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited CPP 20MW 170
Oil India Limited (OIL) CPP 20MW 190
Indian Railways Electric locomotives NA 990
PowerGrid Anti-fog Porcelain Disc Insulators NA 200
Indian Oil Corporation Limited CPP 376MW 3,348
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
…and large order wins in T&D and transportation businesses YTD FY10
Bhel is already the market leader in the supply of transmission equipment
up to 400 KV and has recently signed a memorandum of understanding
(MoU) to form a JV with Toshiba for the transmission & distribution
business, including manufacturing 765 KV and above category
transmission systems and gas insulated switchgears, for which significant
demand exists in India.
plans. Recently, Bhel secured its largest order to date from Indian
Railways (Rs 990 crore) to manufacture 150 electric locomotives.
Exhibit 25: XI plan targets for installation transmission line (in Ckm)
Transmission Lines XI Plan Target Status March 2009
765 Kv 7850 3118
HVDC +/- 500 Kv 7432 7172
400 Kv 125000 89496
230/220 Kv 150000 122960
Total transmission lines 290282 222746
Despite the margin pressure, Bhel will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA
margins vis-à-vis domestic and international peers due to the continuance
of its leadership position in the power sector. The management
recognises that being cost competitive is integral for Bhel to maintain its
leadership status, thus focusing on initiatives as design to cost, lean
manufacturing, and purchase and supply management. Supply chain
initiatives include leveraging IT (negotiations through reverse auctions, e-
procurement), long-term rate contracts (steel, copper, transformer oil,
etc), vendor base expansion for BOPs (40 new vendors in FY09 and 38 in
FY10 – up to November 2009), outsourcing (low technology/low core
manufacturing), etc.
Exhibit 26: Bhel will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than peers during FY11E-12E
20.0
15.0
(% )
10.0
5.0
0.0
BHEL L &T Thermax Crompton Dong Fang
G reav es
FY 10 FY 11E FY 12E
Exhibit 27: Solid growth of topline and bottomline in FY10 Exhibit 28: Conservative turnover target for FY11E
Rs Crore FY09 FY10 % change Rs Crore
Financials
Revenues to grow at a 22% CAGR in FY10-12E
With a total order book size of Rs 1,43,800 crore in FY10 and average
execution period of four years, we estimate Bhel’s revenues will grow at
22% CAGR in FY10-12E to Rs 49,873 crore. We expect revenues of the
power segment to grow strongly in FY10-12E (19% CAGR to Rs 38,244
crore) as Bhel enjoys a 54% share of XI plan power equipment orders.
Growth of this segment will be supported by Bhel’s expanded
manufacturing capacity (15 GW by end of FY10), leading to a faster
execution rate in FY11E-12E (3.5 years vs. four years in FY09). We believe
the power segment will continue to dominate with a 74% share of
revenues in FY12E (vs. 78% in FY10).
60,000 40
49,873
42,591
45,000 30
33,280
(R s cro re)
26,727
(% )
30,000 20
19,727
15,000 10
0 0
FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E
In our view, margins will come under pressure despite the recent wage
settlement by the company. The wage settlement, covering all categories
of employees wef January 2007, was finalised in FY10 and the payment
arising were made; provisioning of Rs 1,113 crore in nine months of
FY10.
25.0
21.3
19.4 17.7
16.1 17.0
(% )
17.5 17.0
17.8 16.5 15.8
15.9
14.9
13.8
10.0
FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E
16.0
8.0
0.0
FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E
RoCE RoNW
Valuations
At the CMP of Rs 2500, the stock is trading at a P/E of 22.8x in FY11E and
19.6x in FY12E. We have valued Bhel using the DCF methodology due to
We have valued Bhel using the DCF methodology at Rs the long execution period associated with its projects (~four years). Our
2,733/share due to the long execution period associated valuation is based on assuming an 11.5% WACC and 5% terminal growth.
with its projects (~four years) Despite strong sales visibility over the next two or three years, new order
growth and margins are likely to come under pressure. We are initiating
coverage on the stock with an ADD rating.
4,000
3,200
2,400
(R s)
1,600
800
0
3/31/2004
9/30/2004
3/31/2005
9/30/2005
3/31/2006
9/30/2006
3/31/2007
9/30/2007
3/31/2008
9/30/2008
3/31/2009
9/30/2009
3/31/2010
Price A v erage 26.6x 7.4x
160,000
120,000
(R s cro re)
80,000
40,000
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
S ep-04
S ep-05
S ep-06
S ep-07
S ep-08
S ep-09
Market C ap A v erage 18.8x 7.5x
80
60
40
(x)
20
0
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
BHEL L &T
P er S h are D ata (R s )
R even u e p er s h are 403.0 546.0 679.8 870.1 1,018.8
E V p er s h are 454.8 454.8 454.8 454.8 454.8
B o o k V alu e 221.3 265.2 327.3 407.3 500.4
C as h p er s h are 171.3 210.7 219.9 281.5 350.5
E PS 58.4 64.1 87.6 108.8 126.7
C as h E P S 80.4 97.1 95.7 118.6 139.3
DPS 15.3 17.0 21.7 24.7 28.7
RATING RATIONALE
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ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Add, Reduce, and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the
notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
research@icicidirect.com
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