Consultancy Study on Establishment of

Simulated Site Wind Availability Data for

Air Ventilation Assessments in Hong Kong

Inception Report
January 2011

1. Background

1.1.The AVA System

In 2005, the Planning Department completed the Feasibility Study for the
Establishment of Air Ventilation Assessment System (the AVA Study). The AVA
Study proposed a performance-based AVA methodology to assess the impacts of
various design options on the pedestrian wind environment. In July 2006, the then-
Housing, Planning and Lands Bureau and the Environment, Transport and Works
Bureau issued a joint Technical Circular No. 1/06 on AVA to provide guidelines on
AVA. Since then, the Government has conducted AVAs for many major Government
projects and planning studies. Some quasi-government organizations and the private
sector have also taken the initiative to conduct AVA for their own projects.

In July 2006, the Planning Department commissioned a Feasibility Study on Urban

Climatic Map and Standards for Wind Environment (UCM Study). The Study will,
among others, establish wind benchmark standards and propose refinements for the
current AVA methodology.

1.2.Limitation of the Existing Site Wind Availability Data

There are three current sources of site wind availability data for AVA, including the
Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) weather station wind data, meso-scale model
simulated wind data and experimental wind tunnel site wind availability data. The
HKO weather stations are generally located at lower height levels. The site wind
availability data obtained from the station may be affected by nearby developments or
topography and hence cannot be taken directly as site wind availability data input to
AVA.

The Planning Department website contains a set of site wind availability data,
measured at around 596m above terrain level for the whole of Hong Kong, which is
available for public usage. The existing site wind availability data is derived from a
set of simulated wind data generated by the Environmental Protection Department
(EPD) covering the entire land area of Hong Kong using the Firth-Generation
NCAR/Penn State (MM5) computer model. The data are originally intended for
regional air pollution modeling and hence the resolution does not resolve detailed
topographical effects necessary for the purpose of AVA. This Consultancy Study is to
produce a comprehensive set of standardized and reasonably representative site wind
availability data for both qualitative and quantitative AVAs.

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2. Objectives of the Study

The objectives of this Consultancy Study are

• To generate a comprehensive set of simulated site wind availability data

(including all the essential wind information) as inputs to air ventilation
assessments for planning and development projects in Hong Kong;

• To provide a Site Wind Availability System to generate the required site wind
availability data from simulated results under users’ real time specification;
and

• To make available a Site Wind Availability Database on the Planning

Department’s website for public use.

3. Task Analysis

A consultancy team consisting of meso-scale modeling experts, meteorologists and

wind engineers has been formed. The experts shall actively participate in the
following four major tasks as detailed in this report. The following is a detailed
framework of the four main tasks prescribed under the Consultancy Study.

3.1. Task 1- Methodology for Deriving a Set of Site Wind Availability Data for Hong
Kong

The initial methodology, setup and assumptions of the meso-scale simulations

(including the approaches, input assumptions and settings) for generating a
comprehensive set of site wind availability data and the methodology for deriving the
characteristics wind profile for Hong Kong and the initial methodology for practically
verifying and accepting the simulation results will be proposed and documented.

The set of site wind availability data shall be useful for all types of AVAs, including
expert evaluation, initial study and detailed study either by computation fluid
dynamics model or wind tunnel.

An expert engagement exercise shall be conducted in mid-February 2011. The

professional views of the experts in relevant fields including meteorology, wind
engineering, urban climatology and AVA would be solicited on:

(a) the proposed methodology, setups and assumptions of the meso-scale

simulation and the initial methodology for deriving the characteristics wind
profiles for the proposed site wind availability data;

(b) the methodology of using the simulated site wind availability data as an input
to:

(i) the wind tunnel site wind availability study (by referencing with the
simulated wind data from meso-scale modeling at the grids of interest);
and

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 (ii) the computational fluid dynamics simulation for AVA study

(c) the initial methodology for practically verifying and accepting the simulation
results.

Issues identified during the expert engagement exercise will be documented and
addressed by proposing revision, as appropriate and necessary, to the proposed meso-
scale simulation methodology, the methodology for deriving the characteristic wind
profiles and the methodology for practically verifying and accepting the simulation
results. The revised methodology shall be agreed by the DR, before proceeding to the
subsequent tasks. Details of the finalized methodology, including the model to be
used and the approach to be taken to obtain the site wind availability data from the
simulations, as well as that for checking and verifying the results of the simulations,
will be included in Working Paper 1. The detailed timeline can be found in the Work
Programme.

3.2. Task 2- Meso-scale Simulation of the Site Wind Availability Data and
Characteristics Wind Profile

A comprehensive set of site wind availability data of 500x500m resolution covering

the whole of Hong Kong shall be devised and reported.

The simulation methodology, including setup, assumptions, grid settings and

simulation time of the meso-scale modeling shall be agreed with the DR, before the
simulation.

It is proposed to use the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) developed

by researchers at Colorado State University in USA. This source code is available for
free and the Consultant Team already has the code. Compared with the more popular
MM5 (Mesoscale Model Version 5) or WAF (Weather and Forecasting) models
developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, which are for
general simulations and predictions of mesoscale weather phenomena, the RAMS
model and many of its parameterizations have been designed specifically for
mesoscale or higher resolution scale grids. There is no lower limit to the domain size
or to the mesh cell size of the model’s finite difference grid; microscale phenomena
such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, as well as sub-microscale turbulent flow
over buildings and in a wind tunnel, have been simulated with this model.

The model is setup with the full set of non-hydrostatic, compressible equations with
atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, plus conservation equations for scalar
quantities. These equations are supplemented with a large selection of
parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, solar and terrestrial radiation, and moist
processes.

As mentioned before, the model can have very fine horizontal and vertical resolutions.
One of the technical staff of the Consultancy Team has worked with the Hong Kong
Observatory using the RAMS model to simulate the flow near the Hong Kong
International Airport with a horizontal resolution of 200m. The vertical resolution can
be of the order of 10-20m, which is very important in simulating the flow within the

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atmospheric boundary layer. In this Study, it is proposed to use a horizontal resolution
of 500m. For the vertical resolution, terrain-following coordinates with a resolution
equivalent to no larger than 50 m in the boundary layer (from ground level up to ~1.5
km) will be used. Above 1.5 km, the resolution will be increased to 500m or coarser
at higher elevations.

For the terrain representation, the topographic and building height data provided by
the Planning Department will be adopted. Since the data have a resolution higher than
500m, the averaged building height (based on the total number of buildings within a
grid box) plus the grid-box averaged topography will be used. Within each grid box,
if different types of land uses exist, the land-use category will be specified as the one
with the largest majority.

For the physics packages (boundary-layer parameterization, radiation and cumulus

parameterization), tests will be performed based on some events to determine the
choice of optimum scheme.

For the initial and boundary conditions for the model, the Modern Era Retrospective
analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) dataset of the US National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which has a horizontal resolution of
0.5o latitude x 0.67o longitude (or approximately 55 km x 75 km), or other equivalent
reanalysis data sets with comparable resolutions, will be used.

To perform the simulations, the model will be initialized with the MERRA or other
re-analysis dataset from 1 January 2000 0000UTC (or Universal Time Coordinated).
During the integration period, boundary conditions will be updated every 6 hours, and
moderate nudging towards the re-analysis data will be applied continuously. This
procedure is then repeated for the next 2-year integration. 5 sets of CPUs will be used
to perform the simulations. The entire procedure will be repeated starting from
0000UTC on 1 January 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008.

Hourly output of parameters at various height levels specified and agreed by the DR
(wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, turbulence intensity, etc.) prior to
the start of the integration will be written on hard drives. The calculation of
turbulence intensity I can be made according to the following equation:

where u′ is the root-mean-square of the turbulent velocity fluctuations and U is the

mean velocity. Because the RAMS model output consists of the turbulent kinetic
energy k and u′ = √(2k/3), I can be calculated. To do this calculation, the wind speed
and turbulence intensity at every 1 minute will be temporarily stored and at the end of
the averaging period. The root-mean-square of the turbulent velocity and the average
wind speed are then calculated, based on which the turbulence intensity is computed.
The output to be stored in the hard drive is the hourly average value.

Characteristic mean wind speed and turbulence intensity profiles with at least 8 points
from ground level to the gradient height level (i.e. 50m, 100m, 150m, 200m, 300m,

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400m, 500m) for 16 cardinal wind directions shall be derived for each simulation grid,
with reference to:

(a) international best practice (such as Engineering Science Data Unit,

International Wind Codes, Wind Engineering Guidelines Technical /Academic
Articles etc);

(b) the raw results/data from the meso-scale modeling; and

(c) the sets of wind tunnel site wind availability data to be provided by the DR.

All information and raw results/data from the simulation shall be translated into files
of a specified computer format to be agreed by the DR. The raw results/data shall
include hourly wind and other climatic information. The actual format of data inside
the files shall be agreed with the DR.

The raw results/data files shall contain all the simulated information and translatable
to annual, winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) statistical
wind distributions and frequencies (in Table format) and wind roses (for 16 cardinal
directions) at different height levels (including 500m, 300m and 200m above terrain)
for each simulation grid.

The methodology of deriving the characteristic wind profiles and the details of
information to be generated shall be agreed with the DR in advance.

The characteristic wind profile shall represent the effects of major topographic and
directional characteristics of each simulation grid. The characteristic wind profile
shall be in an appropriate data format to be agreed with the DR.

3.3.Task 3- Checking and Verification of Simulation Results

The method and procedures of checking and verifying the periodical and directional
simulation results and the characteristics wind profiles will be documented. The
simulation results from Task 2 will be verified against observations from the Hong
Kong Observatory. Simulated turbulence intensity will be verified against available
data from the Planning Department. Checking and verification procedures and
acceptable standards shall be up to international best practice as appropriate, and
agreed with the DR in advance. The simulation will be re-performed if the results
cannot meet the verification checks or the acceptable level/standard. The re-run has to
meet the acceptable level or standard to the satisfaction of the DR.

For 30 different locations in Hong Kong, to be specified by the DR, the simulated
data from the closest grid point will be used for verification. Because the observations
are made at a single point while the data at the grid point represent the average value
within a box of 500 x 500 m, a one-to-one matching should not be expected, nor is it
appropriate. Also, because of the large volume of data, comparisons cannot be made
for every day for the 10 years.

Instead, the average results according to different groupings (time of day, season and
year) will be compared. This is the usual international practice in comparing model

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simulations with observations on a “climatological” basis, which is the case here. In
calculating the averages, the standard deviations will also be computed. Comparisons
between the observations and the simulations can then be made using simple
statistical tests, which initially would include comparison of statistical variables and
scatter plots, and details are subject to agreement of the DR. The ideal scenario is
when the averages from the observations and the simulations are not significantly
different based on the statistical test. In the case that they are significantly different, it
will be investigated to see whether such differences are consistent at various levels in
the atmosphere. If so, the simulations are said to have a systematic bias, which can be
corrected using a statistical adjustment so that the simulations should still be
considered to be acceptable. Only in cases when the differences between observations
and simulations are “random” can one assert that the simulations are incorrect.

In order to avoid re-running the 10 years of simulations, a test run for one year will be
performed initially for preliminary comparisons. If the simulations are indeed not
acceptable, different physics packages or tuning of various input parameters will be
applied until the simulations is consistent with the observations. Such an approach is
usually carried out in performing long-term integrations.

3.4.Task 4- Site Wind Availability System and Web-based Site Wind Availability
Database

A Site Wind Availability System will be formed internally, to enable users in the
Planning Department to obtain site wind availability data from the raw results/data
files for specified areas of interest and specified periods of time in a user-friendly and
efficient way. The system shall allow easy updating, maintenance and can be easily
installed in computers in the Planning Department. With the hourly data stored in
hard drives, a computer programme will be written (most likely in Visual Basic
format or others as agreed by the DR) for the retrieval of the data by Planning
Department users. The programme can incorporate various calculations such as
spatial and temporal averages. The retrieval process will be interactive and the
interface would likely be web-based unless otherwise specified by the DR. The source
code of the system will be submitted to the Planning Department, with prior
agreement with the Planning Department regarding the actual function, design and
setup of the system.

A web-based Site Wind Availability Database will also be provided, for storing
information including annual, winter, and summer statistical wind distributions,
frequencies and wind roses at different height levels (including 500m, 300m, 200m
above terrain) for each simulation grid generated from the raw result/data files.
Characteristic mean wind speed and turbulence intensity profiles for each simulation
grid with at least 8 points from the ground level to the gradient height level (i.e. 50m,
100m, 150m, 200m, 300m, 400m, 500m) for 16 cardinal wind directions shall be
included in graphical and table format. This is done by first generating a PDF file for
each grid point and using a web-based system developed for retrieving the PDF for a
specific location, or based on other design to be agreed with the Planning Department.
The database will allow easy updating, maintenance and can be efficiently and easily
setup on the Planning Department website.

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The format of information/data presentation for the system and database can be
referenced from the ANNEX. The final presentation requirement and format shall be
agreed with the DR in advance.

4. Work Programme

Target date Work to be carried out

(from
commencement
of Agreement)
1 month • Submission of Draft Inception Report
• Preparation for the running of the model
2.5 months • Submission of Final Inception Report
3 months • Submission of Draft Working Paper 1
• Testing of some physics packages
3.5 months • Presentation at the expert engagement workshop
4 months • Submission of Final Working Paper 1
• Finalize the configuration of the model and approach in
running the model based on feedback from experts
5 months • Completion of test run for 1 year (separating into four runs,
each for 3 months)
5.5 months • Perform preliminary comparisons with observations
• Modify model configuration, physics packages as appropriate
6 months • Begin production runs for 10 years using the final
configuration of the model and initial verification
12 months • Completion of all simulation runs
• Drafting of Working Paper 2
12.5 months • Submission of Draft Working Paper 2
• Final verification of simulation results against observations
12.5 months • Submission of Draft Working Paper 3
13 months • Submission of Final Working Paper 2
14 months • Submission of Final Working Paper 3
• Begin writing programme for data retrieval
• Begin creating PDF files for the web-based system
15 months • Submission of Draft Working Paper 4 together with
− demonstration of the final programme for data retrieval and
− samples of PDF files for the web-based system
16 months • Submission of Final Working Paper 4 together with
− source code of the final programme for data retrieval and
− final version for the web-based system
17 months • Submission of Draft Final Report and Draft Executive
Summary
18 months • Submission of Final Report and Executive Summary

5. Training Proposal

At least two training sessions on the application of the Site Wind Availability System
and Database will be provided to the Planning Department and other departments as

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specified by the DR for the transferal of technical knowledge and skills. The duration
for each training session will be not more than 1 working day.

6. Study Team

The Consultancy team is led by Professor Johnny Chan, Dean of the School of
Energy and Environment at the City University of Hong Kong (CityU). He holds a
Ph.D. in atmospheric science with extensive experience in data analysis and
numerical modeling. He has published over 140 articles in meteorology and related
fields in international peer-reviewed journals and given over 200 conference
presentations, over 30 of which were keynote speeches or by invitation. His
experiences, which are directly relevant to this consultancy study, include a project
funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and Natural Science
Foundation of China on airflow over complex terrain with application on air quality in
Hong Kong, CFD simulations of flow in street canyons, and supervision of theses on
numerical simulation of squall lines over Hong Kong and of tropical cyclone landfall
(1 Ph.D. and 3 M.Phil.). The results of all such studies have subsequently been
published as journal articles or consultancy reports.

Team member Professor Edmund Choi, of the Building and Construction

Department at CityU, is a prominent figure in the field of wind engineering for over
30 years. After his PhD study, which was on wind characteristics in Hong Kong, he
continued his work on wind engineering research as well as consultancy practice. He
participated in the drafting of the Wind Loading Code in Hong Kong, Singapore and
Australia, as well as the ISO Wind Loading Standard. He has written a book on wind
loading in Hong Kong and is the author of many papers in international journals and
conferences. He has been the wind engineering consultant to many prestigious private
and public construction projects in Hong Kong and was also the mastermind in the
design and establishment of the wind tunnel system at CityU.

The third team member, Dr. K. T. Tse, former Assistant Professor of the Building
and Construction Department at CityU (now at HKUST), is again a wind engineer
with extensive experience in wind tunnel testing techniques. After he obtained his
Ph.D. in wind engineering from HKUST, he had worked as an engineer in the
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at HKUST and its wind tunnel
facility for 8 years, focusing on consultancy and research projects on various wind
aspects. He is one of the core professional staffs in the CityU Wind Tunnel Facility.
Over the last decade he has conducted numerous consultancy projects and research
studies in wind engineering. His research areas include the wind-induced dynamic
loads and responses of tall buildings, air ventilation assessment (AVA) and wind flow
around building complex, and topographical effects on design wind speeds for
structural and environmental considerations. He has been a member of The
Australasian Wind Engineering Society since 2003 and has published over 40
consulting reports, journal articles, and conferencend workshop papers in a wide
range of wind engineering aspects.
The fourth team member, Dr. Francis C. Y. Tam, Assistant Professor of the School
of Energy and Environment at CityU, is a meteorologist and has performed various
different numerical models ever since his Ph.D. work at Princeton University. His
experience in running global, as well as regional models, will enable him to contribute

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towards the modifications of the model to be used, as well as interpretations of the
model results.

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ANNEX

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