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Outcome

Pivotal Event 1
Event 1 Outcome
Intiating Event 2
Event
Pivotal Outcome
Event 2 Event 3

.9

Fire Yes (P=0.8) 1


Starts Yes
(P=.7)
Yes (P=0.9) No ( P=0.2) 2
Yes (P =0.8) 3
No (P
= 0.3)
No (P=0.2) 4
No
(P=0.1)

P=.01

5
Yes (P=0.8) 1
Yes (P=.7)
Yes (P=0.9) No ( P=0.2) 2

Yes (P =0.8) 3
No (P = 0.3)
No (P=0.2) 4

Fire Starts
P=.01

No (P=0.1) 5
Yes (P=0.8) 1
Yes (P=.7)
Yes (P=0.9) No ( P=0.2) 2

Yes (P =0.8) 3
No (P = 0.3)
No (P=0.2) 4

Fire Starts
P=.01

No (P=0.1) 5
Yes (P=0.8) 1
Yes (P=.7)
Yes (P=0.9) No ( P=0.2) 2

Yes (P =0.8) 3
No (P = 0.3)
No (P=0.2) 4

Fire Starts
P=.01

No (P=0.1) 5
Yes (P=0.9) 1
Yes (P=.8)
No ( P=0.1) 2
P=.7

No (P = 0.2) 3
P=0.6

P=0.3 4

P=0.1

P=0.4 5

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