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    This document discusses time series forecasting models for sales data. It presents the results of three forecasting models, including model descriptions and fit statistics. Forecasts are generated for 12 months in 2017, along with upper and lower control limits. The document also discusses extending the forecasts beyond the initial time period.

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    This document discusses time series forecasting models for sales data. It presents the results of three forecasting models, including model descriptions and fit statistics. Forecasts are generated for 12 months in 2017, along with upper and lower control limits. The document also discusses extending the forecasts beyond the initial time period.

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    13 views16 pages

    Output Laporan Ppic 1

    Uploaded by

    Finka Ihsana
    This document discusses time series forecasting models for sales data. It presents the results of three forecasting models, including model descriptions and fit statistics. Forecasts are generated for 12 months in 2017, along with upper and lower control limits. The document also discusses extending the forecasts beyond the initial time period.

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    of 16

    BAB III

    PRINT OUT

    3.1 Data Awal

    3.1.1 Soal no 1

    3.1.2 Soal No 2
    3.1.3 Soal No 3
    3.2 Hasil
    3.2.1 Peramalan Aktual

    3.2.1.1 Soal No 1
    3.2.1.2 Soal No 2
    3.2.1.3 Soal No 3
    3.2.2 Hasil Peramalan

    3.2.2.1 Soal No 1

    Model Summary Chart


    Model Summary
    3.2.2.2 Soal No 2
    3.2.2.3 Soal No 3

    Model Description

    Model Type

    Model ID penjualan Model_1 Simple Seasonal


    Model Summary
    Model Fit

    Percentile

    Fit Statistic Mean SE Minimum Maximum 5 10 25 50 75 90 95

    Stationary R- .570 . .570 .570 .570 .570 .570 .570 .570 .570 .570
    squared

    R-squared .882 . .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882

    RMSE 4.382 . 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382

    MAPE 2.933 . 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933

    MaxAPE 9.065 . 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065

    MAE 3.295 . 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295

    MaxAE 11.332 . 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332

    Normalized 3.116 . 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116
    BIC
    Model Statistics

    Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)

    Number of Stationary R- Number of


    Model Predictors R-squared squared MAPE MAE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers

    penjualan- 0 .570 .882 2.933 3.295 10.484 16 .840 0


    Model_1

    Forecast

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    Model 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017

    penjualan- Forecast 105 103 106 114 118 123 137 122 116 109 102 99
    Model_1
    UCL 114 114 118 128 133 139 154 140 136 129 124 121

    LCL 96 93 94 100 103 107 119 103 96 88 81 76

    For each model, forecasts start after the last non-missing in the range of the requested estimation
    period, and end at the last period for which non-missing values of all the predictors are available or at
    the end date of the requested forecast period, whichever is earlier.
    3.3 Peramalan Perpanjangan

    3.3.1 Peramalan Aktual Perpanjangan

    3.3.2 Hasil Peramalan Perpanjangan

    Apply Time Series Models

    Model Description

    Model Type

    Model ID penjualan Model_1 Simple Seasonal

    Model Summary Chart


    Model Summary
    Model Fit

    Percentile

    Fit Statistic Mean SE Minimum Maximum 5 10 25 50 75 90 95

    Stationary .570 . .570 .570 .570 .570 .570 .570 .570 .570 .570
    R-squared

    R-squared .882 . .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882

    RMSE 4.382 . 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382 4.382

    MAPE 2.933 . 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933 2.933

    MaxAPE 9.065 . 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065 9.065

    MAE 3.295 . 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295 3.295

    MaxAE 11.332 . 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332 11.332

    Normalized 3.116 . 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116 3.116
    BIC

    Model Statistics

    Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)

    Number of Stationary R- Number of


    Model Predictors R-squared squared MAPE MAE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers

    penjualan- 0 .570 .882 2.933 3.295 10.484 16 .840 0


    Model_1

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