Elections, Politics &

Democracy
BY
TARUN SURANA
TARUN.IMDR@GMAIL.COM
Current trends in Indian democracy

 Disclosure: my own political bias

 Bias: Of everyone & accordingly you can agree or disagree
 Right to dissent: As a legitimate position during an argument
 Media’s role: In shaping opinions and impact on elections, democracy
 Media: Right wing / nationalist media vs media which is Critical of
government
 Rise of fake news in social media: Role of whatsapp/fb based groups
 Social media: A tool for mobilizing people towards a political opinion
 Very weak political opposition leads to rise of new opposition leaders
Key takeaways from 2018 state
elections

 Close fight in all 3 northern states

 Its’ BJP’s loss rather than a Congress’ win
 Telangana & Mizoram: Congress was routed by TRS & MNF resp.
 Signals for BJP: It’s difficult to rule for 50 years (ref. Amit Shah)
 Congress-Mukt Bharat: An unfulfilled dream
 TINA: Democracy has often surprised & alternative emerges
 Chandrasekhar, Narsimha Rao, I K Gujaral, H D Dewe Gouda, Manmohan
Singh, Anna Hazare
 Una incident, Saharanpur violence: NOTA, Sapaks
Rise of new young opposition leaders
Rise of Chandrashekhar Azad’s Bhim
army
Key takeaways from 2018 state
elections

Rajasthan:
 Sachin Pilot was deputed for last 4.5 years
 the state rotates power every 5th year
 Padmavat, Anandpal Singh encounter
 Meena vs Jat: battle for reservation
 Anger against CM Raje
 Over Confidence due to 160+ seats to start with
Key takeaways from 2018 elections

Madhya Pradesh
 Bhavantar Yojna, Agriculture distress
 Failure to tie up with BSP/SP pre-poll
 Loan waiver promise by Congress
 Impact of reversal of SC order by ordinance in SC/ST act matter
 Rise of NOTA & Sapaks
Chhatisgarh
 Arrogance, Corruption & Anti-incumbency
 TINA: doesn’t work. People are confident of alternative to be emerged
BJP: The election strategy

 Vast Organization, over 5 crore party members

 Booth level management: “Panna Pramukh” as a position
 Social Media: Whatsapp groups & how communication flows from Delhi to
each booth in 20 minutes (MLM model)
 Was Jawahar Lal Nehru contesting this election? Looking at BJP’s strategy,
answer is: Yes
 Patel, Gandhi: Embracing the heroes by BJP
 Cows, Temples, Whether RaGa is Hindu & his Gotra
 BJP: Yogi Adityanath addresses maximum rallies, more than Amit Shah
 VHP/RSS: Genie is out from bottle (Ram temple demand)
 Does hardline Hindutva gets BJP more votes or no ???
INC: The election strategy

 Containing of factionalism before elections & putting a joint fight

 Risk of not declaring CM candidate taken by party
 Sharp attacks by RaGa against PM on defence deal
 Highlighting failure of job creation, several un-fulfilled promises by ruling party
 Soft Hindutva: RaGa’s temple run
 Farm loan waivers promises
 Rice crop bonus in CG
 First they ignore you, than they laugh at you, than they fight you & than you
win
Way forward to 2019

 Negotiations by regional leaders will be tougher with BJP

 BJP will have to show more respect towards its allies
 Almost 10 parties left BJP coalition in last 4 years
 It will be suicidal step to keep regional forces alienated & go alone by BJP
in several states
 Opposition: Federal Front by regional parties or Mahagathbandhan lead
by Congress ?
 Expect RaGa to be more confident & sharpen his attacks on issues that
matter
Way forward to 2019

 PM must host a press conference where he can take questions from all sides of
media
 Not hosting a single press conference shows an insecurity, a fear of handling
unpleasant questions
 This doesn’t go well with his great orator’s image. ‘Intellectuals’ who voted for
Modi in 2014 seems disenchanted with one way Mann ki Baat
 Take any criticism as feedback, an opportunity to improve rather than seeing it
as motivated/sponsered
 BJP must reduce over confidence, be grounded, work harder on ground
 Congress need not get over confident as well, after all its BJP who lost, and not
the win for congress
 Thanks

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