Natural Hazards 1 (1989) 331-340.

331
© 1989 by Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Seismic Intensity Zoning and Earthquake Risk

Mapping in Iraq
K H A L I D J. F A H M I
Seismology Unit, B.R.C., Scientific Research Council, P.O. Box 2136, Jadiriya, Baghdad, Iraq

and

J A M A L N. A L A B B A S I
Department of Mathematics, Tikrit University, Salah Eddin, Iraq

(Received: 13 June 1988; accepted: 25 October 1988)

Abstract. The recently published Iraqi earthquake data file over the period 1905-1984 is used to derive a
local lo-M s formula. This is then combined with a local intensity attenuation relationship to compile the
observed I o (MM) zoning map for Iraq. Earthquake risk is calculated using the log N (M,) relation for
selected design magnitudes and periods and is mapped as the (%) probability of occurrence using a 0.5 deg
latitude/longitude grid system. It is observed that the intensity zones and contour distributions are highly
influenced by the presence of large magnitude shocks while risk maps reveal the Tauros seismogenic zone
as having a greater risk of occurrence than the Zagros zone. The compiled zoning maps are intended for
the use of local practising engineers for earthquake-resistant design procedures that are currently being
adopted in the country.

Key words. Seismic zoning, earthquake intensity, risk mapping, ground motion attenuation, design
magnitude.

1. Introduction
Rational formulation of engineering decisions in seismic areas requires quantitative
descriptions of seismicity. In earthquake-prone regions, any decision-making for
urban and regional planning or for earthquake-resistant design, should stem from
prior knowledge of the characteristics of probable future earthquakes. The procedure
known as 'seismic zoning' provides for such information which excludes data on the
influence of local soil conditions and soil-structure interaction. The latter seismic
engineering quantities are usually presented on so-called microzoning maps.
According to Karnik and Algermissen [1], the main product of seismic zoning is a
zonation map (or maps) displaying a seismic parameter (or parameters) that reflects
the actual geographic distribution of earthquake activity as expressed by the zoned
parameter (e.g. intensity, risk, ground motion etc.). At the same time, it is important
to relate such zonation to the probability of future earthquake occurrence within the
studied area.
A useful seismic zoning method should generally lead to a regional quantitative (or
sometimes qualitative) description of the regional geographic variation of earthquake
332 KHALID J. FAHMI AND JAMAL N. ALABBASI

activity. In order to ensure sufficient applicability, Liu and Fagel [2] proposed a
number of criteria which when satisfied should result in optimized seismic zoning
maps. Important amongst these are the following:

(i) Zoning should reflect earthquake size as well as some statistical measure
relating to occurrence time.
(ii) Zoning should be based on a rational statistical model of earthquake occur-
rence using seismicity catalogs which must be homogeneous and complete in
the data sample.
(iii) The zoned parameter should carry physical significance and relate directly and
conveniently to actual engineering design actions.

In addition to the above, the statistical variability of the zoned parameter must be
taken into consideration. It will be seen later in the paper that all the above criteria
are, in fact, satisfied for our intensity and risk maps.
The compilation of a seismic zoning map requires a clear definition of the zoned
parameter and, thus, different types of zoning maps may be defined according to the
basis of their compilation. Four main categories of zoning maps - based on content
- are recognized [1]: maximum seismic intensity, earthquake risk, ground motion and
seismic design maps. In this work, our attention will focus on the first two types, i.e.
seismic intensity and earthquake risk maps.
Excluding the introduction and conclusions sections, the paper is composed of four
main sections. Following the introduction, the second section reviews previous inves-
tigations which constitute a substantial background to seismic zoning in the country.
The third section is devoted to discussing macroseismic intensity data from which an
intensity-magnitude formula is derived and an observed Io zoning map is compiled.
In Section 4, the latest recurrence law for the country is used to arrive at the necessary
magnitude probability density function. This is then incorporated with the stochastic
Poisson model to produce risk maps employing Lomnitz's [3] mapping method. The
final section reports the main findings of the paper.

2. Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Iraq: a Brief Review of Previous Work

Since the pioneering work of Alsinawi and Ghalib [4] which produced the first
earthquake intensity zoning map for Iraq, a number of studies have been published
to investigate the geographic regionalization of seismic hazards in Iraq [5-11]. Despite
the varying emphases and aims of each of the reported investigations, the compiled
zoning maps nevertheless reveal the all-too-familiar complex seismotectonic regime
typifying the northern, northeastern and eastern parts of the country. This seismo-
active senario which was recently studied in connection with the tectonics of the
Zagros-Tauros continental collision zone [12, 13], justifies the revision of the current
seismic zoning maps using the recently published earthquake data file for Iraq [14].
Furthermore, the necessary empirical ground motion relationships for constructing
SEISMIC INTENSITY ZONING AND EARTHQUAKE RISK MAPPING 333
such zoning maps should be derived and clearly defined. These relations are discussed
in more detail elsewhere [15].

3. Macroseismic Intensity Zoning

Macroseismic intensity is expressed as a number scaling the earthquake ground
motion effects observed on different buildings and structures, as well as on the earth's
surface. Being based on descriptive noninstrumental effects using mainly qualitative
criteria, intensity scales are subjective and highly influenced by personal judgement.
Notwithstanding this limitation, earthquake intensity remains an essential parameter
for observation and analysis, since it is still widely used in zoning maps which are a
part of official building codes around the world. This is because intensity maps reflect
an overall (integrated) approach to ground motion evaluation involving the combined
effects of source dynamics and dimensions, path properties and attenuation, as well
as local subsoil conditions. In contrast, the main disadvantage in the compilation of
generalized maximum observed intensity zones is the assumption that the individual
component isoseismal maps which make up the iso-intensity zones, maintain the same
distribution in the future as in the past.
When enough macroseismic data [reported as maximum observed Modified Mercalli
intensity or M M (Io)] exist within a file of instrumentally determined magnitudes, an
empirical conversion formula may be derived. However, it's application should be
limited to the region from which the earthquake catalog is extracted. The recently
compiled Iraqi earthquake data file - tested for completeness and homogeneity - is
scanned for available Io values. These are then plotted against their reported M~
(surface wave magnitude) readings. A linear regression fit for 58 points ranging
between I o = 5 and 10 resulted in the following empirical relation:
Io = 1.51 3,/, - 1.36 (n = 58; r-squared -- 0.77). (1)
Figure 1 is a plot of Equation (1) in comparison with that of Gutenberg and Richter's
[16] global relationship and another published by Teikari et al. [17] for some parts of
northern Iraq. Here it is important to stress that Equation (1) cannot be manipulated
to get M, in terms of Io since the correlation coefficient is not unity.
In order to construct a maximum observed earthquake intensity zoning map
generalized for the whole country, Equation (1) is substituted into the available
intensity attentuation relation for Iraq [18] to give intensity 'I' in terms of Ms and
epicentral distance D (kin):
I = 3.84 + 1.51 M, - 3.8 log(D + 20), (2)
where the (D + 20) term is introduced to avoid the singularity at D = 0.
Selecting from the Iraqi file all shocks with Ms > 5.0 and applying the conversion
formula (Equation (1)), a total of 157 Io reportings are located on a base map. The
local intensity attenuation given by Equation (2) is then used to calculate concentric
iso-intensity contours out to D < 150 km for each location or, alternatively, cutting
off at I = 4.0, which is the threshold of ground shaking perceptibility established for
334 KHALIDJ. FAHMIAND JAMALN. ALABBASI

I ° = 1 . 5 1 M s -- 1.36 (this paper)

I O = 1.47 M s -- 1.0 (Ref. 16)

I O = 1 . 7 1 M s -- 2.45 (Ref. 17)

•o//-o
//°"
• °

SURFACE WAVE MAGNITUDE (M s )

Fig. 1. Plot illustratingthe l o - M s relationship obtainedin this paper in comparisonto regionallyand

globallyderivedformulae.

the region [19]. The delineated iso-intensity zones throughout the country are then
linked by smoothed contours as shown in Figure 2.
Comparing Figure 2 with the previously published intensity zoning map for Iraq
[8], it is readily noticed that apart from the three isolated sources of activity laying
outside the Tauros-Zagros coilisional zone (viz, in the western, south central, and
southwestern parts of the country), the present zoning map depicts a more detailed
geographic distribution with better evaluations of the levels of ground shaking
intensity currently prevalent in Iraq. Needless to say, of course, that any future major
energy release in the eastern or northeastern parts will cause the integrated zones to
change in both magnitude and area, depending on the nature and extent of ground
failure to be produced by the future shock.
For the intensity map of Figure 2 to be applicable and useful to design engineers,
Table I relates the Io zones to the Uniform Building Code UBC [20] using the
nomogram devised by Lloyd [7]. This equivalency is also linked to the approximate
ground accelerations expected within each zone in °A g assuming firm or hard local
subsoil conditions.

4. Earthquake Risk Mapping

According to Lomnitz [21], earthquake risk may be defined as the probability (%) of
the occurrence of a critical earthquake characterized by a design magnitude (resulting
in ground accelerations > 0.1 g) during a specific design period 'P' (years). Then the
SEISMIC INTENSITY ZONING AND EARTHQUAKE RISK MAPPING 335

3~ 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 4~

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

3I

30

29

28

Fig. 2. Maximum observed intensity zoning map for Iraq. Iso-intensity contour values are Modified
Mercalli 'Io'.

Table I, Comparative scale relating Iozones shown in Figure 2 to UBC zones and expected ground
accelerations

Io(MM) zone Equivalent description UBC zone Expected 'g%'

4-5 Moderate - Fairly Strong 0-1 0.5-2.0
5-6 Fairly Strong - Strong 1 1.0-5.0
6-7 Strong - Very Strong 1-2 2.0-10.0
7-8 Very Strong - Destructive 2-3 5.0-20.0
8-9 Destructive - Highly Destructive 3 10.0-50.0
>9 Completely Destructive 4 > 50.0

earthquake risk R ( P ) may be expressed as

R(P) = 1 - exp[-xP exp(- UMs)] (3)

where x = M e a n r a t e o f o c c u r r e n c e p e r y e a r ( M s > 0).
U = Slope of Gumbel's type I extreme magnitude distribution.
Ms = Surface wave magnitude.
336 KHALID J. FAHMI AND JAMALN. ALABBASI
Thus, if the seismic geography is homogeneous enough to assume constancy of U,
then Equation (3) is applied to map R ( P ) for a given design earthquake.
In calculating earthquake risk and subsequently mapping its geographic position
for Iraq, we essentially followed the same approach as that of Lomnitz [3]. This
entailed the following steps:

(1) Define the geographic region to be mapped and subdivide it into a grid with 0.5
degree latitude x 0.5 degree longitude cells.
(2) Select the design earthquake magnitudes and design periods for which the risk
is to be calculated.
(3) Apply the appropriate ground motion attenuation formula (in the case of each
design magnitude) to the magnitudes listed in the earthquake file in order to
determine the epicentral distance at which horizontal accelerations for each
epicenter exceeds that value which would be generated by the design magni-
tude.
(4) For each grid point the magnitude probability based on the recurrence relation-
ship for the studied region is computed. This density function takes the following
form:

1 - exp[(-B(M~ - Mmin)]
(4)
F(M~)q = 1 - exp[-B(Mmax - - Mmin) ] '

where Ms is the magnitude which, if generated at thej th epicenter, will produce

an acceleration greater than the design acceleration at grid point i. Mmax is the
maximum observed magnitude and Mminis the minimum earthquake threshold
magnitude for which the magnitude reportings are complete for the whole
duration of the file. B is b/log e = b/0.434 and b is the slope of the log N(M~)
(magnitude-frequency) distribution.
(5) Earthquake risk for the whole period of the file is calculated at grid point 'i'
which has experienced horizontal accelerations greater than the design through
the use of the following formula

R r ( i ) = 1 -- I-IjF(M,)j, (5)

where R r ( i ) is the earthquake risk for the whole time sample 'T' at 'i' and ~j' is
the number of epicenters that the site 'i' has experienced.
(6) Earthquake risk for the design period is calculated at grid point 'i' which has
experienced horizontal accelerations greater than the design by applying the
relation:

R n ( M , ) = 1 - e x p [ D / T In (1 - Rr)]. (6)
SEISMIC INTENSITY ZONING AND EARTHQUAKE RISK MAPPING 337
T h e procedure outlined a b o v e requires the application o f the following local relation-
ships which incorporate the a p p r o p r i a t e constants for Iraq:

(1) The magnitude-frequency f o r m u l a for I r a q [14]:

log Nc (Ms) = 6.33 -- 0.87 Ms. (7)
(2) The magnitude probability density function for I r a q [14]:
1 - e x p [ - 2 . 0 ( M s - 4.8)]
F(M,) = (8)
1 -- exp( -- 2.088)
(3) The ground acceleration equation (considered appropriate) for the region [22]:
log a(Ms, D) = 2.24 + 0.3 Ms - 1.1 log D. (9)
The resulting m a p s are shown in Figures 3, 4 and 5 for design magnitudes of 6.0,
5.5 and 4.8 Ms at design periods o f 75, 50 and 25 years, respectively. On all three maps,

38 4~, 4i 42 43 44 45 48 47 48 4S

38

37 i
)
3~
/
35 /
J
34
/ o
33
2~
32

3!
"--.+

36 i~\ I
29
- I

Fig. 3. Earthquake risk map of Iraq for a design magnitude of 6.0 Ms and design period of 75 years.
Numbers inside the grid represent the probability of occurrence (in percent) of a design earthquake likely
to produce a minimum acceleration of 0.20 g within that grid cell.
338 KHALID J. FAHMI AND JAMAL N, ALABBASI

SS 41~ 41 4E 43 44 45 48 47 48 49

S~
11o11oio]1oio lo 10 20

i0 j" I0~"~I~)i20 50~/"F20i~ I0

S6 (o 1o 1o !1o 4o/'~o ~o 3o 1o, 1o ~lo 10 ! 10

,
I 10
/
i~°-/~ ~ ~ o 10 3O
/
:~5 ~o ; ,? ~ ~o
, 110

34 /"'" ~o:~\.
/ \
i0' Z~O i0 40
$3
10 ~ ~ ~ I0
3 E ~ 10 ~0 IQ 20 510 l

Sa lo l o ~
10 ](3 ~'\ /

Fig. 4. Earthquake risk map of Iraq for a design magnitude of 5.5 Ms and design period of 50 years.
Numbers inside the grid represent the probability of occurrence (in percent) of a design earthquake likely
to produce a minimum acceleration of 0.15 g within that grid cell.

the m a x i m u m R ( P ) cells are outlined so as to highlight the risk peaks. In doing so,
we clearly observe that for the three selected design magnitudes and periods the
northern parts of the country, generally carry a higher risk of earthquake occurrence
than the eastern parts.

5. C o n c l u s i o n s

(1) Based on the recently published Iraqi earthquake data file, an empirically derived
local relation between I o and Ms is presented.
(2) A m a x i m u m observed seismic intensity (Io) zoning m a p for Iraq is compiled based
on local intensity-magnitude-epicentral distance relations. It is concluded that the
distribution of intensities is clearly dominated by the exceptionally large shocks
[MM(Io) = 8-9] located in Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
SEISMIC INTENSITY ZONING A N D EARTHQUAKE RISK MAPPING 339

3S 4~ 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

38

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

3~

2S

28

Fig. 5. Earthquake risk map of Iraq for a design magnitude of 4.8 M s and design period of 25 years.
Numbers inside the grid represent the probability of occurrence (in percent) of a design earthquake likely
to produce a minimum acceleration of 0.10g within that grid cell.

(3) Earthquake risk expressed as the probability of occurrence in percent for

selected design magnitudes and periods is mapped for Iraq. The calculated
risk values particularly for large design magnitudes show that the northern
parts are exposed more to such occurrence. In this respect Figure 3 shows
that the Tauros seismogenic zone has three times the probability that R(P)max
occur within that zone rather than the Zagros despite the fact that the rate
of earthquake occurrence, in general, is higher in the Zagros than in the Tauros
zones.
(4) The compiled maps may be regarded as a tentative but useful tool for the
practising engineer to apply in earthquake-resistant design. It thus may be con-
sidered as an interim stage prior to the formulation and use of the Iraqi Seismic
Design Code (ISDC) which is currently underway.
340 KHALID J. FAHMI AND JAMAL N. ALABBASI

Acknowledgements
This work is the third part of a four-part research program supported by the Iraqi
Scientific Research Council under project BRC: 04-11-01 and is published with the
permission of the Director General of the Building Research Center. The authors
thank the anonymous reviewers for their useful comments.

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