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Indonesia Macroeconomy 2018
Indonesia Macroeconomy 2018
Indonesia Macroeconomy 2018
Agus Nurudin
Managing Director
Nielsen Indonesia
Agus Nurudin
Managing Director
Nielsen Indonesia
5,58
5,02 4,79 5,03 5,01 5,01 5,06 5,19 5,06 5,27 5.17
4,4
3,6 3,7 3,6
3,4 3,4
3,0 3,1 2,9
FY FY FY FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
DEC DEC DEC DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC
13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18
13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18
55
6,9 6,3
Q3’18 4,5 5,4
3,5 3,8
5,3
2,0 2,7 2,7
GOVERNMENT
-0,2
SPENDING -1,9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 | Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18
9
9,1 8,0
7,1 7,3 7,0
5,3 5,1 5,4 5,9
HH Consumption Gov. Spending 4,1 4,5 4,8
SOURCE: BPS.GO.ID 4
INDONESIA INFLATION DETAILS
The slower inflation is driven by Household Expenditure and Transportation-communication-services parts.
However, the Prepared Food-Bev.-Cig. parts are still increase steadily in this year.
INFLATION MONTHLY
COMPOSITION INFLATION & CPI
112
PREPARED FOODS, BEVERAGES & CIGARETTE 4.1 4.0 3.1 3,0
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
109,3
110
2,5
HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE 5.1 2.1 1.6
108
2,0
105,4
CLOTHES 3.9 3.1 2.7 106
1,5
104
HEALTHY 3.0 3.1 2.5 102,3
1,0
102
EDUCATION, RECREATION & SPORT 3.3 3.2 2.9 100,0
0,5
100
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Jun-17
Sep-17
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-14
Mar-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
SOURCE: BPS.GO.ID 5
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (BANK CENTRAL)
Indonesian consumer confidence level relatively unchanged since mid of last year.
150
CONFIDENCE ABOUT FUTURE
140 CONDITION
120
SEP‘18
110
CONFIDENCE ABOUT
100 104 CURRENT CONDITION
90 110
80
CCI - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
CECI - CONSUMER ECONOMIC CONDITION INDEX
70
CEI - CONSUMER EXPECTATION INDEX
JAN17 APR17 JUL17 OCT17 JAN18 APR18 JUL18
Source: The Conference Board ® Consumer Confidence Survey, Conducted in Collaboration with Nielsen 7
SAVINGS IN THE BANK IS SOFTENING
Saving and investment fund (both from saving account and Time Deposit) has an increasing trend, yet softening. The
ownership comes from upper SES.
+5.7%
Q3
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
+11.5%
Rp4.168.082
Rp3.943.517
Rp3.535.222
85
79 79
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
50
40 41 43 41
37
275
1.787
278 276
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
249
1.712
291 1.557
1.863 1.546
270 302
239 252
1.717 1.719
1.411 1.640
314 2.226
243 265 250 262
1.610 1.458 1.545
1.299
329 283 267 283 292 1.990 1.647 1.504 1.402 1.457
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
10.000 9.234
8.701 Q3’17 VS Q3’18 GROWTH
9.000
4.630 4.629
5.000
MIDDLE -2
4.000 3.242 3.386 3.192
3.150 3.160
3.000 LOWER +6
2.963
2.000 2.677
1.985 2.064 2.021 2.101
1.000 1.771
0
Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18
HH SPENDING CONTRIBUTION
Saving + Loan
Education Housing
related
Transport
ation FMCG
Source: Nielsen CPS data – additional spending +79 FMCG Homepanel – Q3 2017 vs Q3 2018 12
POST FESTIVE, HOUSEHOLDS ARE SPENDING
CAREFULLY
HH SPENDING STRONG MODERATE DECLINE
CONTRIBUTION %
10% 7%
Transportation Food
15% 18% 3%
(Fresh & Staples)
UPPER SES Leisure Health 20%
6.5 MIO 7%
Housing
related FMCG
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
4% 28%
10% 3% Communication Food (Fresh &
Leisure Health Staples)
31% 10%
LOWER SES Transportation 15%
20% FMCG
2.1 MIO 7%
Saving+ 3%
Loan Education Housing related
Source: Nielsen CPS data – additional spending +79 FMCG Homepanel – Q3 2017 vs Q3 2018 13
FMCG PERFORMANCE
FMCG Value Growth FMCG Vol Growth (/unit) FMCG Price Increase (/unit)
12
19 10
5 11 12 6 5
13 8 3 1 2
2 2
CIGARETTE FMCG
Volume (Bill Stc) Value (Trillion Rp) Volume (Bill Bags) Value (Trillion Rp)
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18
Source: (1) BPS official government site, & nielsen retail data (2) Nielsen RMS Data 15
FMCG GROUP CATEGORIES GROWTH
Several categories start to have volume increase such as Cooking Aid and Dairy as their average price remain
unchanged. However FMCG as overall only grows from slow price/KG increase.
VALUE PRICE/KG VALUE PRICE/KG VALUE PRICE/KG VALUE PRICE/KG VALUE PRICE/KG
1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
10% OF 13% OF 8% OF 8% OF 3% OF
COOKING AID DAIRY BEAUTY HOMECARE PHARMA
2% 0% 2% -0% 0% 3% 2% 2% 1% -3%
-3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 3%
3% 3% 1% 0%
16
IN-HOME PURCHASE SHOWED SIMILAR TREND
IN-HOME CONSUMPTION
VAL MAT 18 % VOL VAL MAT 18 % VOL VAL MAT 18 % VOL VAL MAT 18 % VOL VAL MAT 18 % VOL
2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 3% 3% 2% -8% -3%
COOKING
DAIRY BEAUTY HOMECARE PHARMA
AID
3% 0% 1% 0% 1% 3% 3% 2% -8% -3%
INSTANT
NON RTD BASIC PC
FOOD
0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3%
SNACK + READY TO
CONF DRINK
7% 3% -1% 0%
17
TOP 10 CATEGORIES GROWTH
The top 3 categories are still unable to grow in this MAT especially in value and volume KG. However, several
other top 10 such as Cooking Oil, Mineral Water, and Liquid Milk are still growing healthily.
SNACK SHAMPOO
18
HOW IS HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE ON FMCG ?
• UPPER SES: Rationalize increased spending by utilizing promotion
• MIDDLE SES: There is a tendency that they are holding up their spending towards FMCG, to afford Non FMCG
• LOWER SES: As they are still relying on FMCG, still try to catch up with rising price by reducing purchase, due limited cash
outlay.
UPPER (15%)
MIDDLE (54)
LOWER (31%)
HW AGE HW AGE
< 35 >=35
IDR SPEND KG/L FOOD
COOKING AID
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
85
79 79
50
40 41 43 41
37
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
13
5 6
Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18
28 31 33 78 77 85 21 24 32 3 3 7
* Incidence is based on 8 electronic items: AC, computer (PC/laptop), microwave oven, refrigerator, LCD/LED/Plasma TV,
Source: Consumer Media View 2018 – Nielsen Media Vacuum cleaner, washing machine, water heater 21
HOW ABOUT CHANNEL
& AREA ?
170
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
SEP15 DEC15 MAR16 JUN16 SEP16 DEC16 MAR17 JUN17 SEP17 DEC17 MAR18 JUN18 SEP18
SULAWESI
SUMATRA 5.4 3% INDONESIA FMCG
16.2 0% KALIMANTAN 345 T
5.2 5%
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
BANUSRA
JAKARTA GR
4.5 1%
20.2 -1%
OTHER JAVA
48.6 2%
24
SOFTENING TREND IS MORE DRIVEN FROM MAJOR
CITIES
While Rural area is able to growing positively in this MAT.
1.2 -1.1
TOTAL INDONESIA
0.1 -2.5
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
1.9 -1.1
OTHER CITIES
CONT : 51% CONT : 49%
1.4 RURAL
1.4
CONT : 12% CONT : 20%
Major cities: jakarta gr, bandung gr, semarang gr, yogyakarta gr, surabaya gr, medan, makassar gr. 25
A NEW ERA
OF ONLINE SHOPPING
(CONT. 1% OF TOTAL FMCG SALES)
78%
78%
20
13 14
11
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
14 25 19 19 13
NIELSEN CROSS PLATFORM 2018, INDONESIAN AGED 16+, 9 CITIES, N=1100 SAMPLE (FIELDWORK APRIL – MAY 2018) 28
AMONG HEAVY INTERNET USERS, 92% PEOPLE
SHOPPED ONLINE IN THE PAST 6 MONTHS
92%
13
Above IDR 1,000,000
30
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
37
Everyday A few times in Once a week About once About once a Less than
a week every 2 weeks month once a month
71%
44%
36%
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
32%
32%
32%
TOTAL
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
(ANNUAL
NUMBER BASED
ON STUDY 2016)
2,582,061 191,111
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
76% 67%
24% 33%
1% 5% 11%
20%
4% 6%
2% 41% 7%
6%
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
59%
17%
14% 90%
17%
Youtube (various) tribunnews.com Youtube (various) kaskus.co.id Youtube (various) detik.com
id.yahoo.com uzone.id viva.co.id uzone.id
news.detik.com others bola.net others others
PENETRATION VALUE
(%) (RP ‘000)
2,9
48.5%
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
HW >= 35
1,5 HW < 35
++
Total
+++
35
.. WHICH IS MORE TO PERSONAL CARE &
COSMETICS CATEGORIES
SKINCARE SKINCARE
38
THE CONTRIBUTION OF E-COMMERCE IS
INCREASING, ALTHOUGH THE SHARE IS STILL <1%
+20%
Q1 18 Q2 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 YTD Jun 18
• Consumer confidence relatively • They reduce purchase of instant food, source of FMCG declining mode. While
stagnant in the past 1.5 year , only RTD, and basic personal care. On the Rural area manage to show a better
increased during festive, but still willing to other hand, they put more focus on fresh growth thru smaller pack.
spend on big ticket purchase such as car food , leisure, smart phone ownership
• Though the contribution of Online
and motorcycle. (lifestyle), and online shopping
shopping is still very small for total
• FMCG industry is adjusted post festive • With this changing pattern, it is important FMCG, it is increasing quite fast.
period. However several category groups for FMCG manufacturers to watch out Penetration is doubled from last year with
show recovery indications especially and put more focus on these younger personal care and cosmetic as the top
Dairy and Cooking aid categories due to segment by creating a communication categories.
minimum price increase. and products that could relate to their
interest
Take the momentum by revisiting business model, route to market, sales and marketing strategy, human capital and
creating customer experience
40
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41
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