Example of stratified diversion-

curve model
 A peak-hour target year trip interchange volume between two zones has
been estimated to be 2000 person-trips as follows: 200 of these trips are
made by captive riders, 600 of these are made by trip makers from the
household of income category EC3 and the remaining 1200 from the
income category EC5. Apply the Washington D.C. stratified model to find
the market share of the transit system assuming that this model has been
calibrated as a disaggregate model based on household income
categories. The following data apply to the interchange under
consideration: TTR=2.0, CR=0.8 and L=4.0
Figure of Stratified-Diversion Curve
Figure of Stratified-Diversion Curve (Contd.)
Solution
• Transit-captives: 200 person-trips
• EC3 group: 600 × 0.25=150
• EC5 group: 1200× 0.20=240
• Total transit share=200+150+240=590 person-trips
Disaggregate Method (Discrete choice model)

Widely used discrete choice models are

• Multinomial logit model
• Nested logit model
• Multinomial probit model
Multinomial Logit Model
• The utility or disutility function is typically expressed as the linear sum
(wighted sum) of the independent variables
U=a0+a1x1+a2x2+……………+anxn
• U=utility
• a0=alternate-specific constant/ mode-specific constant
• a1, a2 ………….an=coefficients
• x1, x2, ………., xn=variable representing the attributes of the choice or of
the traveller
Approaches for formulating the utility equation for Multinominal Logit
Model

Two approaches
• Mode-specific/ choice-specific approach
• Attribute-specific / choice-abstract approach
Mode-specific and Attribute-specific formulation of the utility equation

• Mode-specific/ choice-specific approach

• U1=6.2+2.4x1+3.5x2
• U2=3.4+3.1x3+2.9x4
• U3=4.3+2.9x5+3.2x6
• Attribute-specific / choice-abstract approach
• U1=6.2+2.4x1+3.5x2
• U2=6.5+2.4x1+3.5x2
• U3=7.0+2.4x1+3.5x2
Multinominal logit model
Probability of choosing a particular mode

P(i)=eu(i)/∑eu(i)
Example of multinominal logit model

A calibration study resulted in the following utility equation

Uk=ak-.025x1-.032x2-.015x3-.002x4
where
• x1=access time in minutes
• x2=waiting time in minutes
• x3=line haul time in minutes
• x4=out-pocket cost in cents
Example of Multinominal Logit Model (contd.)

• The trip forecast for a particular interchange was a target-year volume of Qij=5,000 peson-
trips per day. During the target year, the trip-makers on this particular interchange will have a
choice between the private automobile (A) and a local bus system (B). The target year service
attributes for the two competing modes have been estimated to be
Attributes x1 x2 x3 x4
A 5 0 20 10
B 10 15 40 50
• Mode specific constants are aA=-0.12 and aB=-0.56. Estimate the market share of the two
modes and the resulting revenue of the bus system
Introduction of A new mode
Find the utility of each mode
• U(A)
• U(B)
• U(C)
Find the probability of choosing each mode
• PA=eU(A)/(eU(A)+eU(B) +eU(C))
• PB=eU(B)/(eU(A)+eU(B) +eU(C))
• PC=eU(C)/(eU(A)+eU(B) +eU(C))
Sensitivity to other policies
Probability of choosing a mode under existing conditions
• U(A)
• PA=eU(A)/(eU(A)+eU(B) +eU(C))
• Probability of choosing a mode under changed scenario
• U/(A)
/
• P A=eU/(A)/(eU/(A)+eU(B) +eU(C))