MATH 1030 - Voting Project 2018

Names of Group Members: Peyton Edwards

Due: September 20, 2018

The Iowa Caucuses

Part I: Research the Iowa Caucuses and explain how they work. Your response should be a one-page
(250-word) narrative. Be sure to include a brief history, how a caucus differs from a typical primary
election, and why the Iowa Caucuses play such an important role in American presidential elections.

The Iowa Caucuses are electoral events taking place every four years. During this event members of the
Democratic and Republican parties in Iowa decide on representatives who will vote on each party’s
presidential nominee. The first Iowa Caucus was held by the Democratic party in an attempt to change
the party’s presidential nominating process. This very first Iowa Caucus was held in the year 1972. Four
years after the first Democratic Iowa Caucus, the Republicans followed suit by holding their own caucus
in 1976. Since then till present day, every four years both main parties have held Iowa Caucuses.
The Iowa Caucuses and the primary election are both ways where the country votes to get to the end
result of appointing a president. In the Iowa Caucuses the two major parties vote on delegates who
decide the presidential candidate of the party. The primary election however is where voters privately vote
for the primary candidates that were decided in the Iowa Caucuses. So the differences between the two is
Iowa Caucuses are public and include representatives who decide on a party’s presidential candidates;
whereas, Primary elections are private and includes the public voting on which presidential candidate they
prefer.
Iowa Caucuses are very important for many reasons. The first reason for why the Iowa Caucuses are so
important is that Iowa is the very first state out of all fifty to cast their vote in the primary election. The
second reason for why the caucuses are important is that statistically more than half of the winners from
the Iowa Caucus go on to win the presidential candidacy of their party. Also it is a good indicator of who
will not win candidacy. That is why the Iowa Caucuses are so important.

Part II: Imagine you live in Mason City, Iowa and attend a Republican caucus for Precinct W1-P2 at the
Highland Golf Course. The meeting organizers ask the voters to select their preferences for four
candidates. The following preference schedule summarizes the results of the poll.

# of Voters (100) 19 6 36 39

1st B R C T

2nd R B R R

3rd C C B C

4th T T T B

B is Jeb Bush, C is Ted Cruz, R is Marco Rubio, and T is Donald Trump

Use this preference schedule to answer the following questions about various voting methods.
Vocabulary words in bold are defined in the Voting Theory section in Math in Society.
i. How many people voted?

100

ii. Who wins by Plurality Method?

Ted Cruz

iii. Suppose we use Instant Runoff Voting. Remove the candidate with the least 1st Choice votes and
show the preference schedule.

# of Voters (100) 19 6 36 39

1st B B C T

2nd C C B C

3rd T T T B

iv. Remove the candidate with the least 1st Choice votes and show the preference schedule.

# of Voters (100) 19 6 36 39

1st C C C T

2nd T T T C

v. Who wins by Instant Runoff Voting?

Ted Cruz with 61/100 points

vi. Calculate a Borda Count for each candidate.

# of Voters (100) 19 6 36 39

1st B R C T

2nd R B R R

3rd C C B C

4th T T T B
B: (1*39)+(2*36)+(3*6)+(4*19)= 205 points
R: (3*19)+(3*36)+(3*39)+(4*6)= 306 points
C: (2*19)+(2*6)+(2*39)+(4*36)= 272 points
T: (1*19)+(1*6)+(1*36)+(4*39)= 217 points

vii. Who wins by Borda Count?

Marco Rubio wins with 306 points

viii. How many points does each candidate get using Copeland's Method?

# of Votes (100) 19 6 36 39

1st B R C T

2nd R B R R

3rd C C B C

4th T T T B
B vs R = 19 vs 81 = R gets 1 point
B vs C = 64 vs 36 = B gets 1 point
B vs T = 61 vs 39 = B gets 1 point
R vs C = 64 vs 36 = R gets 1 point
R vs T = 61 vs 39 = R gets 1 point
C vs T = 61 vs 39 = C gets 1 point

B = 2 points
C = 1 point
T = 0 points
R = 3 points

ix. Who wins by Copeland's Method?

Marco Rubio

x. Is there a Condorcet Candidate? Y or N

Yes

xi. If so, who is the Condorcet Candidate?

Marco Rubio

Part III: Imagine that the members of your group are selected as the delegates from Precinct W1-P2 and
you must agree on one candidate to support at the Cerro Gordo County Convention. Write a one-page
(250-word) discussion explaining who won the election. The discussion should include your interpretation
of your calculations in Part II and which fairness criteria helped you choose a winner. There is no right
answer (see Arrow's Impossibility Theorem). As a group it is your job to make a decision and defend that
decision in your discussion.
B is Jeb Bush, C is Ted Cruz, R is Marco Rubio, and T is Donald Trump

19 6 36 39

1st B R C T

2nd R B R R

3rd C C B C

4th T T T B

After being appointed delegate over the convention it has been determined that the winner of the Cerro
Gordo County Convention is Marco Rubio because he won in the most methods. The next runner up was
Ted Cruz. The reason that Marco Rubio won instead of Ted Cruz was that Marco Rubio won three
different methods or criterions and Ted cruz only won two methods. For example, Marco Rubio won the
condorcet criterion instead of Ted Cruz. This is where if a choice is prefered in every one to one
comparison with the other choices then that choice should be the winner. Marco Rubio fit this description
because he was prefered over Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Marco Rubio also won in the
Borda Count method. This is where candidates are assigned points based on their preference ranking. 1
point for last choice, 2 points for second to last, and so on. Marco Rubio won this with 306 points whereas
Ted Cruz only had 272 points, Jeb Bush had 205 points, and Trump had 217 points. Marco Rubio also
won through Copeland’s Method. That is where each choice of candidates is compared by using all the
preferences to determine which of the two is more prefered. The more prefered candidate is given one
point and if they are tied then each candidate is give half of a point. With these requirements in place
Marco Rubio won with 3 points compared to Ted Cruz with 1 point, Jeb Bush with 2 points, or Donald
Trump with 0 points.