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Lifetime Income Report: "Flip This Stock!" - A Top Corporate Rehabber Has Found His Next Fixer-Upper!
Lifetime Income Report: "Flip This Stock!" - A Top Corporate Rehabber Has Found His Next Fixer-Upper!
Lifetime Income Report: "Flip This Stock!" - A Top Corporate Rehabber Has Found His Next Fixer-Upper!
financial
Steven Lerner, head of programming at the Home and Garden Television (HGTV)
network, explained why these kinds of shows dominate his channel: “Viewers’
appetite for real estate and renovation programming is Campbell’s Two Decades of Poor Performance
virtually insatiable.”1 20-Year Total Shareholder Return (%)
1,586%
I thought of these shows while researching this month’s
1,342%
income opportunity.
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prospectuses and should consult investment counsel before investing. Editor: Alison Glenn; Graphic Design: Andre Cawley
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lifetime income report
•T
hird Point helped create approximately $460
million of value for Sotheby’s shareholders through Source: Campbell Soup Company
Sept. 20, 2018. That company’s share price increased
16% since Third Point directors joined the board in This year will be the company’s 150th birthday!
May 2014
The first major change to the business occurred in 1897
•T
hird Point helped create approximately $26 billion — after Joseph Campbell had retired. That’s the year a
of value for Baxter shareholders through Sept. 30, chemist at the company named John Dorrance invented
2018 the company’s share price has increased 143% condensed soup.
while Third Point directors have served on the Before then, soups were sold in large, heavy cans. By fig-
board since September 2015 uring out how to reduce the water needed inside the can,
•T
he company helped create approximately $43 billion Dorrance was able to reduce Campbell’s production and
of value for Dow Chemical shareholders through shipping costs. The consumer simply added the missing
September 2018. The venerable company’s price water or cream themselves when cooking it.
increased 90% since Third Point began engaging with Dorrance created five varieties of soup, including tomato.
Dow Chemical in November 2013. Even today it remains one of the top 10 shelf-stable foods
sold in grocery stores in the United States.3
In short, when it comes to rehabbing flailing companies,
Dan Loeb and Third Point are the best renovation specialists By 1911, Campbell had reached the national stage and was
you could hope for. sold across the entire country. As the company continued
to grow, it acquired additional brands like V8 and Pepper-
Early in 2018, Third Point announced it had taken a
idge Farm. It also created new products like Campbell’s
stake in Campbell and immediately started pushing for
Chunky soups and Campbell’s sauces.
changes at the company.
Today its soups are still the most popular in the United
On Nov. 26, 2018, Campbell finally relented. It reached States, with a dominant 58% market share.4 And it con-
an agreement with Third Point to expand its board of di- tinues to make many of America’s favorite products, split
rectors from 12 to 14. Dan Loeb will personally handpick across three different operating divisions.
those two new members — giving Third Point the power
to steer Campbell’s direction. A Stable of Well-Known Names
His team is now moving to improve on Campbell’s Campbell’s snacks division is built around six powerful
strengths while addressing where it thinks the company brands — Goldfish crackers, Pepperidge Farm cookies,
went wrong… Snyder’s of Hanover pretzels, Kettle Brand and Cape Cod
potato chips, and Late July organic tortilla chips.
There’s tremendous value here just waiting to be unlocked.
At last count, this division generated $1.2 billion in sales
From Fruit to Soup and $154 million in operating earnings.
Campbell has been in business since 1869, when a fruit Campbell’s next division is meals and beverages. It in-
merchant named Joseph Campbell and an icebox man- cludes Campbell’s condensed and ready-to-serve soups,
ufacturer named Abraham Anderson opened their first Swanson broth and stocks, Prego pasta sauces, Pace
plant in Camden, New Jersey. Mexican sauces, Campbell’s gravies/pasta/beans and
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lifetime income report
dinner sauces, Swanson canned poultry, Plum food and When done right, buying out other companies can be a
snacks, V8 juices and beverages, Campbell’s tomato juice, good growth strategy. But too many CEOs push for buy-
and Pacific broth, soups, non-dairy beverages and other outs in a mistaken belief that bigger is better. They don’t
simple meals. mind shelling out obscene amounts of money for smaller
companies just to expand their empires.
And they shouldn’t have been a rubber stamp This Property Could Be a Quick Fix and Flip!
for all of these ill-advised acquisitions.
Packaged Food Comparable Transactions Independent Slate Perspective
It gets even worse… 25x Most relevant comparable transactions
21.0x are 3G for Heinz (2013), Heinz for Kraft
19.5x 20.0x
All of these bad decisions finally caught up 20x (2015) and Conagra for Pinnacle (2018)
15.8x 16.4x
with the company when it reported a disastrous 15x 13.5x 14.5x
Campbell likely to attract multiple buyers
third quarter for 2018 and lowered forward 10x and could fetch 12–15x EBITDA, implying
guidance — meaning it expects its bad deci- $52 to $58 per share
5x
sions to affect future profits, too. Campbell is an iconic asset that could
0x command an attractive price from
In response, CEO Morrison abruptly left the 3G /
Heinz
Heinz /
Kraft
CAG /
PF
JAB / MKC / CPB / Danone /
DPS RB Food LNCE WWAV multiple parties
company. It was a bit late, of course. But the real
problem was that the board of directors had no Source: Third Point Capital
succession plan in place.
Loeb has openly noted that Campbell could be a very
This is, frankly, inexcusable. If the company’s performance good fit for a larger business. The incredibly reliable cash
under Morrison didn’t warrant a plan to replace her, the flow that Campbell’s core soup business generates is a
fact that she was near retirement age certainly should have. very attractive asset for a number of interested parties.
The board simply ignored one of its critical duties.
In similar recent transactions, companies have been willing
Thanks to their lack of foresight, Campbell is now led to buy out other businesses for 14 to 15 times the takeover
by Keith McLoughlin. He has no operating experience in targets’ earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and
packaged food and most recently served as CEO of Swedish amortization.
appliance manufacturer Electrolux!
If some company made a similar offer for Campbell
Investors have lost patience with the company, which is Soup’s shareholders, the deal would be worth up to $58
why we can pick them up very cheap. per share — 50% more than Campbell’s share price.
On the bright side, we probably won’t have this opportunity Wouldn’t it be fun if we got to cash out of Campbell a few
for long — because Dan Loeb and Third Point are working months from now with a gain that large?
to turn things around.
I don’t know if a sale is necessarily going to happen. I do
Replace, Improve and Maybe Sell know, however, that I’m more than happy to collect a 4.18%
As I mentioned, Loeb understands the potential value dividend yield while Dan Loeb goes about his business
that Campbell is sitting on. That’s why he’s taken a large improving this company.
stake in the company, with $819 million worth of shares
With his incredible long-term track record and the fact that
at the end of September 2018.6
he has $821 million invested in Campbell, I feel that very
He used his stake in the company to earn two new seats good things are finally about to happen for shareholders.
on Campbell’s board of directors. Third Point will also
We will have to see whether those good things come
have a say in Campbell’s ongoing CEO search.7
in the form of rising earnings that drive the share price
Loeb hopes to attract a world-class leadership team to higher or through the sale of the entire company. I’ll trust
the company — something that the incumbent board of renovation expert Mr. Loeb to handle the details for us.
directors failed miserably at.
Still, we should make sure Campbell follows our proven
I expect to see that new CEO bring down costs, jettison recipe for success.
non-core businesses and drive returns on capital higher.
There is low-hanging fruit to be picked here that will allow How Campbell Soup Stacks up to Our
a new CEO and properly functioning board to drive earn- Three Pillars of Investment Success
ings higher.
Here at Lifetime Income Report, we put every company
But I also think that there is a very good chance that Loeb through our “Three Pillars of Investment Success.” If a
will end up flipping Campbell for a quick (and quite large) company doesn’t measure up to all three, it doesn’t go
profit — one that will benefit us, too. into our portfolio.
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lifetime income report
Let’s see if this fixer-upper is built on a firm foundation. That is a solid dividend that comes with the opportunity
to piggyback on Dan Loeb’s efforts to drive Campbell’s
Capital Preservation share price significantly higher.
Great investors like Warren Buffett have wonderful
This isn’t some side project for him, either. Loeb runs a
dreams about consumer brands like Campbell Soup.
very concentrated portfolio. He did not put $821 million
Can you believe that the Campbell core product is 150 into Campbell Soup lightly. This is a high-conviction in-
years old and still holds a 58% market share? To say this vestment for him, made only because he believes that he
brand has a strong competitive moat around it is a mas- can attain big returns from Campbell’s share price.
sive understatement.
I think receiving a 4.18% dividend stream while partner-
Even with a long stretch of very poor management, Camp- ing with Loeb is an incredible opportunity. Remember,
bell still churns out $1.2 billion in cash flow per year. The this man has generated annualized returns of 18% for his
core business here is bulletproof and will only get strong
investors for almost 25 years! We are lucky to have him
now that Dan Loeb is on the scene.
as a partner.
Growth
It’s Time to Buy This Fixer-Upper!
A lack of growth in cash flow and earnings per share has
been the primary problem for Campbell Soup over the Everything about Campbell Soup reminds me of an
past 20 years. HGTV fix-it-and-flip-it television show.
In an effort to chase growth through ill-considered diversifi- First we buy the broken-down property.
cation, Campbell’s prior management made a huge mistake
Then our renovation expert comes work his magic.
by straying outside the company’s core business.
When he’s done, we sell our remodeled investment for a
But I believe that Dan Loeb will get this company growing
again by getting everyone focused on what Campbell big profit.
does best. The growth will come through reduced costs, The only difference is that while we hold our property
improved margins and steady revenue increases.
during these renovations, we are going to get paid that
Growth in that core business can be accentuated by intel- nice 4.18% dividend!
ligently using excess cash to repurchase discounted shares
instead of purchasing inferior businesses. And, as I explained Maybe we should start our own reality program?
in last month’s issue, reducing the share count at attractive
prices drives a stock’s earnings per share higher. ACTION TO TAKE:
Buy shares of Campbell Soup Company
Yield (CPB) up to $43.
Campbell Soup Company currently yields 4.18%.
the markets’ up and downs — which could relieve any But even if that happens, all of the company’s assets are
investment anxiety you’re having. typically sold and the proceeds are given to the company’s
creditors. Bondholders are creditors… so they’re entitled
I’ve pulled them from three of the eight services that make to anything they can get.
up my publisher’s new initiative, called St. Paul Research.
Two will add reliable cash to your account, while the third That’s a far better deal than shareholders get. They’re
will give you a chance for speculative gains. typically at the end of the line when it comes to a com-
pany’s assets. Not only are they left holding worthless
stock shares, but they often don’t receive anything from
the bankrupted company.
Then the economy got stronger — and so did the compa- Buying an option gives the buyer specific rights to 100
nies that issued these high-yield bonds. What seemed like shares of a given stock.
a risk back then now looks more like a sure thing. Yet most
investors have forgotten these bonds exist, so you can A call option gives the buyer the right to buy that given
stock for a set price, called the strike price. Those rights
buy them at or even below par value.
expire on a set date. If the person holding the option doesn’t
That means you can lock in a great yield for a low price. exercise their rights before then, the rights disappear and the
option becomes worthless.
Consider Iron Mountain (IRM). If you followed my
recommendation to buy this real estate investment trust The buyer doesn’t have to exercise their rights, though.
(REIT) last year, you’re currently receiving $2.44 a year for They can choose to close the position at any time by selling
every share you own. the option, either for a profit or a loss.
But you could also buy its 5.75% bonds that mature on But you might be surprised to learn that you don’t have
August 15, 2024 (CUSIP: 46284PAP9). The company will to own an option in order to sell it.
send you $57.50 a year for every bond you own. And at As I said, when you trade options, you’re trading rights
current prices, you’ll pay around $952 for each bond, or and obligations.
95.2 cents on the dollar.
And it starts with someone selling that obligation — receiv-
That’s a yield of about 6% — just shy of what IRM’s stock ing money in exchange for agreeing to fulfill the terms of an
shares are yielding. And those reliable payouts are locked options contract if the buyer decides to exercise their rights.
in until the bond matures — no matter what the markets
do over the next five years! It’s known as writing options… and it’s not as complicated
as it sounds.
Volatility Strategy #2: Earn Instant Cash
From Your Stocks Calling More Income
Let’s say you’re holding 1,000 shares of Apple (AAPL)
Stock options can be another great way to give your port-
right now. If you bought them when I first recommended
folio some added oomph. But they tend to be even more
them, you should have paid around $118 a share for them.
feared than bonds.
As I type, they’re currently trading for $157.
To be fair, options do sound complicated, involving words
like “contracts,” “strikes” and “expiration.” And if used So you’re sitting on a nice profit.
incorrectly, they can quickly lead to big losses.
And somewhere out there, a trader is thinking that Apple
On the other hand, few instruments on Wall Street offer shares could be worth $180 or more by the end of the year.
as much profit potential in such a short amount of time But with the market’s volatility, he’s not willing to stake a
— often with no more than a few hundred dollars at risk large amount of cash on his analysis. So he’s turning to the
if you’re wrong. options market instead.
So I strongly urge you to consider adding stock options to He can buy a call option on Apple with a $165 strike price
your investment strategy. And to get comfortable with how that expires in January 2020. If he buys it now, he’ll pay
they work, you can start with the safest form of options just $11 a share for the contract. Since each option repre-
trading there is. sents 100 shares of stock, it means shelling out $1,100 —
far less than the $15,700 he’d have to pay if he bought the
As an added plus, volatile markets make this method shares outright.
even more lucrative, as I’ll explain in a second.
With the option, he has the right to buy 100 shares of
But it will only make sense if you understand how options Apple stock for $165 — no matter what they’re currently
work in the first place. selling for. If he’s right and Apple goes to $180, he can
exercise his rights… buying $18,000 worth of stock for
You might know that stock options trade alongside stocks $16,500… essentially making $1,500 in the process.
on the major exchanges. But while stock shares represent
part ownership in a company, options represent rights If he’s wrong, however, and Apple never gets above $165
and obligations. over the next year, his option will expire worthless.
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lifetime income report
But imagine being on the other side of that trade… obligated to disclose to the public how much money they
made, how much they spent and how much they profited.
Like a Bonus Dividend!
But before the companies make those announcements,
Remember, for this example, you’re holding 1,000 shares independent market analysts share their thoughts on how
of Apple that you bought for $118 each. the numbers will turn out.
So you could sell call options against your Apple stock. Each have their own methods for extrapolating data and
You essentially create a contract saying that you’re willing crunching possible scenarios, so they may come up with
to sell 100 shares of Apple at the option’s strike price any different numbers. And if enough analysts make a predic-
time before the option expires. tion about a company, financial news organizations will
In this example, the strike price is $165 and the option average them out to create a “consensus” estimate.
expires in January 2020. The option buyer pays you Investors then buy and sell based on those forecasts,
$1,100 to keep your promise. waiting for the official news release.
That’s instant cash for your portfolio… and there are a Sometimes the consensus is right — and the company’s
few ways it could play out. numbers match expectations. But other times, there’s an
earnings “surprise,” where the results are higher or lower
If Apple ever tops $165 a share, the person who bought
than what the consensus believe.
your promise — the call option — could ask you to fulfill
its terms. You’ll be forced to sell him 100 shares of Apple Earnings surprises usually cause huge shifts in a stock’s
for $165 each… no matter what the current price is. price. If the company’s numbers are better than expected,
its stock price could take off. And call options on those
But that’s not so bad!
stocks will absolutely soar.
If you bought Apple for $118.28 a share, selling them for
That’s because options are leveraged investments. In other
$165 nets you a nearly 40% gain. Plus you still have 900
words, they have oversized reactions to a stock’s price
shares of Apple left to capture further upside in the stock
moves — which you can use to your advantage.
price.
It gets even better if Apple shares never trade above $165. Small Moves Can Mean Powerful Gains
Sure, you don’t see a lot of capital gains in your stock. But As I told you, call options give investors control over 100
you still collect every dividend Apple pays out. And if the shares of stock. Owning one gives the buyer the right to
option expires worthless, you get to keep the $1,100 you buy 100 shares of the underlying stock at the options’
received for selling the option. strike price.
So selling calls against your stock shares is a great way to And as you saw in my Apple options example, they often cost
earn income in up-and-down markets. During upturns, a fraction of what it would cost to buy the stock outright.
you can sell shares for a nice profit… and you can keep
cash rolling in when the stock market heads south. Their prices are also directly tied to the stock’s price.
Every dollar a stock goes over the option’s strike price
Best of all, volatility tends to push up option prices — increases the options’ value by at least $100.
meaning you’ll collect bigger payouts by selling them!
Again, think back to the Apple $165 call options example.
Volatility Strategy #3: Use Leverage to If Apple shares trade for $166, the option holder can buy 100
shares for $165 apiece — making the option worth at least
Profit From Earnings Surprises $100. With Apple at $170, the option’s value jumps to $500.
Once you get a feeling for how options trading works, you
can start using them to make more speculative trades. (The fact that investors are currently willing to pay $1,100
for an Apple $165 option means they expect Apple to be
And in up-and-down markets like these, you could see trading for at least $181 a share by the end of the year.)
the most lucrative gains by using options to speculate on
earnings surprises. Now, of course, leverage can work the other way, too —
a fall in a stock’s price has a bigger effect on the prices of
You probably know that companies are required to report call options associated with the stock. That’s what makes
their financial results every three months. They are legally these kinds of plays much more speculative.
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lifetime income report
Here’s the thing, though… end of January. So you could buy call options anticipating
a jump in MSFT’s stock price after its announcement.
Do Insiders Know Something We Don’t?
Just keep in mind that Alan’s system doesn’t guarantee
Right now, investors aren’t sure what to think. They’re that good news is coming — there could be other reasons
selling on every piece of bad news, then rushing back behind the unusual trades. So if you decide to play this
into the markets on any glimmer of hope. information, tread carefully.
Overall, however, things look good for companies’ profits And remember, the volatile markets are making options
heading into 2019. Employment is still high… and people more expensive, which would cut into your potential
are still flush with cash. While rising interest rates, trade profits. However, if Microsoft does surprise Wall Street,
tariffs and other things could cut into earnings, they likely you could collect a very nice win.
won’t kick in until further down the line.
Your Portfolio Can’t Thrive on
With so much negativity obscuring reality, the stage is set
for earnings surprises.
Stocks Alone
I hope these ideas have opened your mind to the wide
The trick is to figure out which companies could surprise number of strategies and opportunities available to you.
the markets. My colleague Alan Knuckman has developed
one way. The fact is, investors are figuring out that stocks don’t
always go up in a straight line.
He’s licensed software that can detect subtle trades in the
options markets — signs that company insiders might be And while my “Three Pillars of Investment Success” will
trying to take advantage of their privileged information. limit the damage from any ups and downs, you should
consider padding your portfolio with investments outside
Yes, it’s illegal for insiders to make these trades, but of regular stock trades.
research has consistently found that odd options trades
tend to precede major corporate announcements. Yes, it will mean taking some risks… and you’ll have to
judge them against the potential returns.
In fact, a group from New York University’s Stern School
of Business discovered “pervasive directional options ac- But if you do it right, you’ll never have to worry about
tivity, consistent with strategies that would yield abnormal wild market swings again. In fact, you might be able to
returns to investors with private information.” harness the volatility… earning much more wealth than
you’re likely to see in stocks alone.
In other words, some options traders are behaving like
they have insider information… and are profiting hand- P.S. You’ll hear a lot more about St. Paul Research this
somely from it. year. It’s a spinoff of Agora Financial’s best publications…
and you can be one of the first 1,000 people to experience
Alan’s system recently detected unusual options trading in everything it has to offer. Discover why it’s the equivalent
Microsoft (MSFT), which is set to report earnings at the of receiving $23,094 a year by clicking here.
Raquel S. Monica S.
Hi, Raquel. I assume you’re referring to my Big Book Thanks for the letter, Monica.
of Income, which can be found on the Lifetime Income
Congress’ $1.17 Trillion Giveaway spotlights every REIT
Report website.
and publicly traded partnership in our portfolio. The
If that’s the case, you want Chapter 28, “One Simple Trick income you receive from these companies has preferential
to ‘Boost’ Your Social Security Benefits by $570 per Month.” tax treatment thanks to a last-minute addition to the Tax
Cuts and Jobs Act that Congress passed into law in 2017.
But soon I’ll have even better information for you. As part
of our transition to St. Paul Research (see page 6 for de- Brookfield Energy Partners (BEP), like most companies,
tails), we’re adding new members to our team — including pays out its income quarterly. If you bought shares in Oc-
a Social Security expert. He’ll share specific strategies for tober, you should have received your first payout on Nov.
maximizing your checks… helping you know when to file, 29. With six shares, the payout would have totaled $2.94.
make sure your spouse is covered and similar topics.
Keep in mind that shares of BEP have fallen in value along-
It will go far beyond anything I’ve written on the subject… side the general market. So you’ll need to check your account
and I hope we can introduce it to you soon! statements to confirm that you received the money.
Our next letter isn’t a question, but it brings up two very But I’m not sure where you got the idea to buy General
important points. Electric (GE). The company isn’t in my book. It’s a standard
corporation, not a REIT or partnership, so its dividends
I received your email alert about Nerdwallet.com. don’t receive the same tax treatment.
This is all new to me, but it makes perfect sense for
everyday living like credit score alerts and travel GE used to be part of the Lifetime Income Report’s portfolio.
streams of income. Thanks! I recommended selling the stock in November 2017 after it
announced disappointing results and cut its dividend.
Marcellus S.
It turns out that was the right call. The company all but
obliterated its dividend in the fourth quarter of 2018,
Thanks for the kind words, Marcellus. You’re talking paying just 1 cent a share. If you’re holding 27 shares of
about the email alert I sent on Dec. 13. the stock, you would have received 27 cents in December.
These emails are a big part of your Lifetime Income Report Since I’m not currently tracking GE, I can’t really tell you
membership. Not only do I share updates on our open what to do with your shares. My only suggestion is to focus
positions, but I also use them to explore topics I don’t on the companies that are currently in our portfolio,
have room to cover in your monthly issues. because they’re the only stocks I can talk about.
So if you’re not getting these emails, let us know so we
And that brings this month’s mailbag to a close. Keep
can add you to the distribution list.
watching for upgrades to your service as well as informa-
I also want to mention that our St. Paul Research spinoff tion on our new publications. I’ll be in touch again soon!
has partnered with a company that specializes in credit
matters. It offers tips for improving your credit score and
making better banking decisions.
You can expect to hear more about that, too! Zach Scheidt
Editor, Lifetime Income Report
Our final question is about our “Congressional Checks.” AskZach@AgoraFinancial.com
11
Lifetime Income Report Portfolio
AVG. PAID DIVIDEND YIELD: 5.74% A/T ENTRY DATE RECENT PRICE EX DATE CURRENT YIELD BUY UNDER
Updated on 1/2/2019
Stocks in bold represent changes to the portfolio. Check the Lifetime Income Report website at agorafinancial.com for more details.
* Represents stocks owned by the Canadian Pension Pla n; A means suitable for all accounts; T means only suitable for taxed accounts (not IRAs, etc.)
Sources:
1. “Where Have All the Gardening Shows Gone?” Taysha Murtaugh, April 5, 2017, Country Living.
2. “#RefreshTheRecipe: Campbell Soup Company Presentation,” October 2018, Third Point LLC.
3. “Campbell’s History: The Campbell Story,” Campbell Soup Company.
4. “Q1 2019 Campbell Soup Company Earnings Conference Call,” November 20, 2018, Campbells.
5. “Campbell Soup Company,” July 29, 2018, United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
6. “Campbell and Third Point Reach Agreement,” November 26, 2018, Campbells.
7. “CPB 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Owners,” Campbell Soup Co., WhaleWisdom LLC.
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