Global warming is a long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate

system, an aspect of climate change shown by temperature measurements and by

multiple effects of the warming. The term commonly refers to the mainly human-
caused observed warming since pre-industrial times and its projected continuation,
though there were also much earlier periods of global warming. In the modern context
the terms are commonly used interchangeably, but global warming more specifically
relates to worldwide surface temperature increases; while climate change is any
regional or global statistically identifiable persistent change in the state of climate
which lasts for decades or longer, including warming or cooling. Many of the
observed warming changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental
temperature record, and in historical and paleo-climate proxy records of climate
change over thousands to millions of years.
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
Report concluded, "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant
cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century." The largest human
influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane,
and nitrous oxide. In view of the dominant role of human activity in causing it, the
phenomenon is sometimes called "anthropogenic global warming" or "anthropogenic
climate change". Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that
during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to
1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) to 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) depending on the rate of
greenhouse gas emissions. These findings have been recognized by the national
science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any
scientific body of national or international standing.
Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region.
Ongoing and anticipated effects include rising sea levels, changing precipitation, and
expansion of deserts in the subtropics. Future warming is expected to be greater over
land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of
glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme
weather events such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall with floods,
and heavy snowfall; ocean acidification; and massive extinctions of species due to
shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food
security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to
rising sea levels. Because the climate system has a large "inertia" and greenhouse
gases will remain in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these effects will persist
for not only decades or centuries, but tens of thousands of years.
Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions
reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and
possible future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), whose ultimate objective is
to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Parties to the UNFCCC have
agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be
limited to well below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) compared to pre-industrial levels, with efforts
made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). Some scientists call into question climate
adaptation feasibility, with higher emissions scenarios, or the two degree temperature
target.
Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing.
A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed that a median of 54% of all
respondents asked consider it "a very serious problem". Significant regional
differences exist, with Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for
the greatest annual CO2 emissions) among the least concerned.
Biosphere
Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species
and reduced diversity of ecosystems. Rising temperatures have been found to push
bees to their physiological limits, and could cause the extinction of bee populations. A
2012 study concluded that continued ocean uptake of CO2 affects the brains and
central nervous system of certain fish species and this impacts their ability to hear,
smell, and evade predators. The study authors note, "We've now established it isn't
simply the acidification of the oceans that is causing disruption – as is the case with
shellfish and plankton with chalky skeletons – but the actual dissolved CO2 itself is
damaging the fishes' nervous systems."
Environmental Effects
The environmental effects of global warming are broad and far reaching. They
include the following diverse effects:
• Arctic sea ice decline, sea level rise, retreat of glaciers: Global warming has led to
decades of shrinking and thinning in a warm climate that has put the Arctic
sea ice in a precarious position, it is now vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies.
Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary. Recent projections suggest that
Arctic summers could be ice-free (defined as ice extent less than 1 million
square km) as early as 2025–2030. The sea level rise since 1993 has been
estimated to have been on average 2.6 mm and 2.9 mm per year ± 0.4 mm.
Additionally, sea level rise has accelerated from 1995 to 2015.Over the 21st
century, the IPCC projects for a high emissions scenario, that global mean sea
level could rise by 52–98 cm.
• Extreme weather, extreme events, tropical cyclones: Data analysis of extreme
events from 1960 until 2010 suggests that droughts and heat waves appear
simultaneously with increased frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within
the monsoon period have increased since 1980.Projections suggest a probable
increase in the frequency and severity of some extreme weather events, such
as heat waves.
• Ecosystem changes, changes in ocean properties: In terrestrial ecosystems, the
earlier timing of spring events, as well as pole ward and upward shifts in plant
and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.
It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric
CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures. Expansion of deserts
in the subtropics is probably linked to global warming. The physical effect of
global warming on oceans include an increase in acidity, and a reduction of
oxygen levels (ocean deoxygenation). Increases in atmospheric CO2
concentrations have led to an increase in dissolved CO2 and thus ocean
acidity, measured by lower pH values. Ocean acidification threatens damage
to coral reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other natural resources of value
to society. Without substantial actions to reduce the rate of global warming,
land based ecosystems are at risk of major ecological shifts, transforming
composition and structure.
• Long-term effects of global warming, runaway climate change: On the timescale of
centuries to millennia, the magnitude of global warming will be determined
primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is due to carbon dioxide's
very long lifetime in the atmosphere. Long-term effects also include a
response from the Earth's crust, due to ice melting and deglaciation, in a
 process called post-glacial rebound, when land masses are no longer depressed
by the weight of ice. This could lead to landslides and increased seismic and
volcanic activities. Tsunamis could be generated by submarine landslides
caused by warmer ocean water thawing ocean-floor permafrost or releasing
gas hydrates.

• Abrupt climate change, cold blob (North Atlantic): Climate change could result in
global, large-scale changes in natural and social systems. Examples include
ocean acidification caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide, and the long-term melting of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level
rise. Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e., over a short time
period, and might also be irreversible. Examples of abrupt climate change are
the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from permafrost, which
would lead to amplified global warming. Another example is the possibility
for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to slow- or shutdown (see
also shutdown of thermohaline circulation). This could trigger cooling in the
North Atlantic, Europe, and North America. It would particularly affect areas
such as the British Isles, France and the Nordic countries, which are warmed
by the North Atlantic drift.
Change in Social systems
The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming or shifts in
precipitation patterns, or both, have been detected worldwide. The future social
impacts of climate change will be uneven across the world.[ Many risks are expected
to increase with higher magnitudes of global warming. All regions are at risk of
experiencing negative impacts. Low-latitude, less developed areas face the greatest
risk. A study from 2015 concluded that economic growth (gross domestic product) of
poorer countries is much more impaired with projected future climate warming, than
previously thought. In small islands and mega deltas, inundation as a result of sea
level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements. This
could lead to issues of homelessness in countries with low-lying areas such as
Bangladesh, as well as statelessness for populations in countries such as the Maldives
and Tuvalu.
Examples of impacts of global warming on humans include:
• A meta-analysis concluded in 2014 that each degree of temperature rise will
increase violence by up to 20%, which includes fist fights, violent crimes, civil
unrest, or wars.
• Estimates in 2015 based on the IPCC A1B emission scenario from additional
greenhouse gases released from permafrost, found associated impact damages
to the economy to be US$43 trillion.
• Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low latitude countries,
while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.[Global
warming of around 4.6 °C relative to pre-industrial levels could pose a large
risk to global and regional food security.[The impact of climate change on
crop productivity for the four major crops was negative for wheat and maize
and neutral for soy and rice in the years 1960–2013.While crop production has
increased in some mid-latitude regions such as the UK and Northeast China,
economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally.
Generally impacts on public health will be more negative than positive.
Impacts include: the effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of
life; and indirect effects, such as under nutrition brought on by crop failures.
 There has been a shift from cold- to heat-related mortality in some regions as a
result of warming. A 2018 study of data from the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention connected temperature rise to increased numbers of
suicides. The study revealed that hotter days could increase suicide rates and
could cause approximately 26,000 more suicides in the U.S. by 2050.
• Livelihoods of indigenous peoples of the Arctic have been altered by climate
change, and there is emerging evidence of climate change impacts on
livelihoods of indigenous peoples in other regions. Regional impacts of
climate change are now observable at more locations than before, on all
continents and across ocean regions.
Regional Effects of Global Warming
The Arctic, Africa, small islands and Asian mega deltas are regions that are likely to
be especially affected by future climate change. Africa is one of the most vulnerable
continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and
low adaptive capacity. Existing stresses include poverty, political conflicts, and
ecosystem degradation. By 2050, between 350 million and 600 million people are
projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change (see Climate
change in Africa). Climate variability and change is projected to severely compromise
agricultural production, including access to food, across Africa. Research projects that
regions even may become uninhabitable, due to a high wet-bulb temperature.
Greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect is a natural process that warms the Earth’s surface. When the
Sun’s energy reaches the Earth’s atmosphere, some of it is reflected back to space and
the rest is absorbed and re-radiated by greenhouse gases.
Greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
ozone and some artificial chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
The absorbed energy warms the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth. This process
maintains the Earth’s temperature at around 33 degrees Celsius warmer than it would
otherwise be, allowing life on Earth to exist.
The problem we now face is that human activities – particularly burning fossil fuels
(coal, oil and natural gas), agriculture and land clearing – are increasing the
concentrations of greenhouse gases. This is the enhanced greenhouse effect, which is
contributing to warming of the Earth.The existence of the greenhouse effect was
argued for by Joseph Fourier in 1824. The argument and the evidence were further
strengthened by Claude Pouillet in 1827 and 1838 and reasoned from experimental
observations by John Tyndall in 1859, who measured the radiative properties of
specific greenhouse gases. The effect was more fully quantified by Svante Arrhenius
in 1896, who made the first quantitative prediction of global warming due to a
hypothetical doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, the term
"greenhouse" was not used to refer to this effect by any of these scientists; the term
was first used in this way by Nils Gustaf Ekholm in 1901.
Greenhouse effect
Step 1: Solar radiation reaches the Earth's atmosphere - some of this is reflected back
into space.
Step 2: The rest of the sun's energy is absorbed by the land and the oceans, heating
the Earth.
Step 3: Heat radiates from Earth towards space.
Step 4: Some of this heat is trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, keeping
the Earth warm enough to sustain life.
Step 5: Human activities such as burning fossil fuels, agriculture and land clearing
are increasing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.
Step 6: This is trapping extra heat, and causing the Earth's temperature to rise.
Greenhouse gases
By their percentage contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth the four major
gases are:[
Atmospheric gases only absorb some wavelengths of energy but are transparent to
others. The absorption patterns of water vapor (blue peaks) and carbon dioxide (pink
peaks) overlap in some wavelengths. Carbon dioxide is not as strong a greenhouse gas
as water vapor, but it absorbs energy in longer wavelengths (12–15 micrometers) that
water vapor does not, partially closing the "window" through which heat radiated by
the surface would normally escape to space. (Illustration NASA, Robert Rohde)
• water vapor, 36–70%
• carbon dioxide, 9–26%
• methane, 4–9%
• ozone, 3–7%
It is not possible to assign a specific percentage to each gas because the absorption
and emission bands of the gases overlap (hence the ranges given above). Clouds also
absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus affect the radiative properties of the
atmosphere.
Role Of Green House Effect in climate change
Strengthening of the greenhouse effect through human activities is known as the
enhanced (or anthropogenic) greenhouse effect.[This increase in radiative forcing
from human activity is attributable mainly to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels.According to the latest Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, "atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects,
together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the
climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th century".
CO2 is produced by fossil fuel burning and other activities such as cement production
and tropical deforestation. Measurements of CO2 from the Mauna Loa observatory
show that concentrations have increased from about 313 parts per million (ppm) in
1960 to about 389 ppm in 2010. It reached the 400 ppm milestone on May 9,
2013.The current observed amount of CO2 exceeds the geological record maxima
(~300 ppm) from ice core data.The effect of combustion-produced carbon dioxide on
the global climate, a special case of the greenhouse effect first described in 1896 by
Svante Arrhenius, has also been called the Callendar effect.
Over the past 800,000 years,ice core data shows that carbon dioxide has varied from
values as low as 180 ppm to the pre-industrial level of 270 ppm. Paleoclimatologists
consider variations in carbon dioxide concentration to be a fundamental factor
influencing climate variations over this time scale.
Impact of Climate change on Urban Areas in India
India has the 2nd largest urban system in the world, with 310 million people in
over 5161 cities as of 2005. Although presently the 5100 urban centres hold less
than 30% of the total Indian population, this figure is expected to rise to 40% by
2030 in an estimated 70,000 urban settlements, as urban population is likely to
grow by 575 millions over the next 50 years. By 2025, 70 Indian cities are
expected to have more than 1 million inhabitants.
The Urban Footprint
With 70% of the population living in rural areas, India’s carbon contribution is much
lower than other developed countries as the energy consumed by a rural economy in
terms of heat, lighting, and transport is much lower than the urban areas. But this will
dramatically change in the next decades with the urban population increasing.
Cities are far more dependent on energy than rural areas where activities like
agriculture, animal husbandry and local artisanal work have a low ecological
footprint. As population in cities grows, pressure on ecosystems increases. Large
quantities of food, water and fuel need to be moved into the cities and huge amounts
of garbage and sewage have to be moved out. Nutrient-rich human wastes – an asset
in a rural setting can become an economic liability in an urban environment.
Aquifers and wetlands, farmlands and forests are all as essential to a city’s survival as
much as transport networks. Water, at once the most vital and most abused urban
resource, best illustrates the precarious relationship that now exists between cities and
the natural system. Many cities’ water comes from overextended or contaminated
aquifers. Aurangabad (in Maharashtra) for example gets it from 118 km away, a
journey that involves enormous energy expenditures .
However, a vast majority of core investment by cities does not include climate
measures. Most cities today continue to construct energy-hogging infrastructure, build
roads without transit and pedestrian considerations, plan development that creates
long commutes, dispose of waste without utilizing it as a power source, and ignore
distributed generation and renewable energy options. When they make these
oversights, they constrain themselves to a future of wasted energy and high GHG
emissions for decades to come. The reasons these opportunities are missed are mostly
due to lack of awareness, technical know how and support.
Direct impact of climate change in urban areas
• Sea level rise
One of the alarming prospects of climate change will be its impact on the rise
in sea level. Mainland India, endowed with a long coastline of 5,700 km will
not escape the wrath of the seas. The total length of the Indian coastline is
about 7,500 km when all the island territories of Andaman and Nicobar, and
Lakshadweep are taken into account.
Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ) are regions, which fall under 10 meters of
coastal elevation. Approximately 81,000 square km of land fall under LECZ in India,
housing a population of over 60 million. 50% of this population is in urban regions
comprising approximately 31 million people.
According to Aggarwal and Lal, it is projected that the sea-level rise along the Indian
coast will be between 30 and 80 cm over the next century. In the absence of any
preventive measures, the people living in coastal areas are potentially going to be
affected. Three major cities Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai are on the coast and are on
an average elevation of 2-10 meters in the LECZ. They are likely to suffer from
flooding of lands particularly during high tide, salinization of water sources,
destruction of ecosystems and natural resources that supply them. Cities in deltaic
locations like Kolkata are more likely to be affected by coastal floods as they are at
lower elevation, experience more or less natural subsidence and, in some cases,
receive more water from the rivers feeding melting glaciers.
• Water/Sanitation
Changes in precipitation patterns and water cycle will increase the already existing
problems of water supply and quality in urban areas, especially in big cities. The
IPCC Report underlines those cities in drier regions like Delhi will be hit hard.
• Health/Diseases
Climate change is expected to increase environment-related diseases. Warmer and/or
wetter period of breeding due to global warming will provide ideal conditions for
expansion of mosquito-borne diseases as puddles, in which malaria carrying
mosquitoes breed, are created either by excessive rainfall or by droughts in rivers.
Lack of sanitation and potable water will increase contaminated water and food-borne
diseases like cholera, typhoid, diarrhoea, hepatitis, and gastroenteritis. Warmer cities
will also induce an increase in respiratory diseases due to pollution whose effects are
reinforced by higher temperatures.
Poor people may suffer more as they have lesser possibilities to adapt. As stated by
UNFPA, “poor areas that lack health and other services, combined with crowded
living conditions, poor water supply and inadequate sanitation, are ideal for spreading
respiratory and intestinal conditions, and for breeding mosquitoes and other vectors of
tropical diseases such as malaria, dengue, typhoid and yellow fevers. Changes in
temperature and precipitation can spread disease in previously unaffected areas and
encourage it in areas already affected.”
• Heat waves
Global warming will be felt more in cities because of the “urban heat island effect”
that makes cities warmer than their surrounding from 2 to 6oC because of the
modification of the land surface and waste heat produced by high-energy use. Heat
waves that can kill hundreds of people may become more frequent and intense.
• Infrastructures
Storms, floods, cyclones, coastal flooding that are expected to be more frequent put
infrastructure at great risk. This includes transportation (roads, railways, bridges,
ports and airports) and communication networks, water supply, sewage, gas pipelines,
drainage, flood and coastal defence systems, power and telecommunication
infrastructures, industrial units, plants. As far as buildings are concerned, informal
and traditional housing are the most vulnerable to storms and floods.
Indirect impact of climate change on urban areas
• Migrations
Climate change related drought and floods are expected to foster rural to urban
migration, increase overpopulation of cities and the proportion of poor and vulnerable
people living in urban areas. It is estimated that 500 million people are going to be
affected by water problems in India because of global warming (major risk of
desertification in North-Western and Central India, alternance of droughts and floods
in the Indo-Gangetic and Brahmaputra plains, and coastal flogging due to sea-level
rise).
The migrants are the most vulnerable groups in any city. With no access to the city’s
livelihood network and a lack of skill sets to help them survive, these groups live in
the slums which are illegal and that have no access to basic amenities. These groups
are thus highly vulnerable to a variety of risks living on hazardous sites,
environmental health risks via poor sanitation, water supply, little or no drainage and
solid waste services, air and water pollution and the recurrent threat of being evicted .
• Economic impacts
Cities form the center of the economy in many countries, so climate change’s impact
on urban populations also damages the nation. For every one-meter rise in sea levels,
the World Bank estimates a loss of 2% in national Gross Domestic Product due to
shortage of fresh water, damage to agriculture and fisheries, disruption of tourism,
reduced energy security, and other consequences .
Health consequences of climate change especially, heat waves, could have a great
impact on economy. Episodes of heat cramps, heat exhaustion and heat stroke would
affect the population, primarily the large poor section of the society. As the immune
system weakens due to heat stress, susceptibility to diseases would further increase.
The resulting increase in expenses on health care by individuals would escalate
leading to greater stress. Hence, this vicious cycle would lead to depreciation of
human resources. As temperatures increase, the workable days for heavy works like
construction will decrease and this may have a negative impact on economic growth.
Climate change through more frequent and intense drought or floods is already
severely affecting the agricultural sector and food production. One of the side effects
of this rural and agricultural crisis is increase in food and biomass fuel prices in cities.
• Retroactive impact of urbanization
As Darryl D’Monte puts it, “three-quarters of the carbon dioxide in the world, which
is the biggest greenhouse gas, is emitted by cities. One has only to remember that half
the population of the globe is urban today. Half this carbon dioxide is contributed by
buildings, which need to heat or cool their interiors; the rest is generated by motorized
transport, which is growing exponentially in our country. This locates the problem
squarely in our midst, as urban-dwellers. As is painfully evident from city after city in
our country, urban development here is highly unsustainable.”
According to Bittu Sahgal, Editor of the magazine Sanctuary Asia, Mumbai itself is
responsible for 40% of pollution in India. Part of these emissions is linked to
measures like air conditioning taken to adapt to climate change which itself is mostly
the consequence of GHG emissions.
This phenomenon is further emphasized by the move towards high-energy consuming
buildings for middle and business-class. Because of globalization and adoption of
new technologies, traditional patterns of construction are abandoned for homogenized
types of building that largely use cement and glass, air conditioning regardless of the
environmental and climatic conditions.
For example, in Pune, constructors’ choices depend more on consumer trends and
commercial considerations than ecological considerations. There, glass and concrete,
which trap the heat, are used more often now than bricks and stone which are much
more energy efficient .
• The poors and the vulnerable people
Climate change will affect more the poor people who constitute between a quarter and
half of Indian cites. The slum dwellers, squatters, migrants, people living in informal
settlements which are generally situated in vulnerable areas (river beds, flood plains,
hill slopes) will be directly affected. They already suffer from insecurities due to
“poor governance, lack of investments in infrastructure and in the commons, strong
connections between the political class, real-estate developers and public agencies”
(Aromar EVI, 2008)
The case of Mumbai
On July 26, 2005, Mumbai was caught unawares by the highest rainfall of the century.
It received 37.1 inches or 94.4 centimeters of rain in a 24-hour period higher than the
annual average.
Public transport ceased to function. People were stranded at work or waded back
home, their long return journey sometimes taking up to 10 hours. Suburban trains,
rickshaws and approximately 10,000 commercial vehicles suffered damage.
The disaster happened due to various reasons. Mumbai, once upon a time, had its
share of dissipation spaces - wetlands, wastelands, mangroves and salt-pan lands, etc.
that acted like sponges and took the pressure out of the high tide. In the past few
decades these has been destroyed systematically. Mangroves have given way to golf
courses and the wetlands and the seacoast has been systematically reclaimed to
accommodate the burgeoning mega-growth of the city. This has resulted in the
choking and/or closing up of the riverine drainage systems. The Mithi river is a
standing example of abuse and overextension – choked by waste and garbage,
polluted by illegal effluents and decades of siltation, it was the Mithi that succumbed
to the high tide and flooded, causing many of the suburbs to be under-water for over
48 hours.
The most affected people were the slum dwellers who live in the low lying areas.
Their shelter built of salvaged materials, are highly vulnerable.
In the aftermath of the floods, hundreds of people died of various diseases
(leptospirosis, gastroenteritis, malaria, dengue, hepatitis) because of poor or
nonexistent sanitation.
Economic losses (both housing damages and destruction, and commercial and
financial losses) were estimated in hundreds of crores.
• Barriers to adaptation
One of the biggest barriers is the lack of adequate knowledge and information at
every level, national, regional and local. Climate change is still not taken as an
emergency.
Moreover most of the attention is more on mitigation but the focus needs to be also on
adaptation, especially for the vulnerable communities. Policies have to insert into
each and every planning and implementation exercise an adaptation.
Climate Change Mitigation

Mitigation of climate change are actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or

enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb greenhouse gases from the
atmosphere. There is a large potential for future reductions in emissions by a
combination of activities, including energy conservation and increased energy
efficiency; the use of low-carbon energy technologies, such as renewable energy,
nuclear energy, and carbon capture and storage; and enhancing carbon sinks through,
for example, reforestation and preventing deforestation. A 2015 report by Citibank
concluded that transitioning to a low carbon economy would yield positive return on
investments.
Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system are inconsistent with limiting
global warming at below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels. Pledges made as
part of the Cancún agreements are broadly consistent with having a likely chance (66
to 100% probability) of limiting global warming (in the 21st century) at below 3 °C,
relative to pre-industrial levels.
In limiting warming at below 2 °C, more stringent emission reductions in the near-
term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030.[ Many integrated models are
unable to meet the 2 °C target if pessimistic assumptions are made about the
availability of mitigation technologies.
Climate Change Adaptation
Climate change adaptation is another policy response. The adaptation may be
planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of global warming, or spontaneous, i.e.,
without government intervention. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited
basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.
Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the
climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in
infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.
Adaptation is especially important in developing countries since those countries are
predicted to bear the brunt of the effects of global warming. That is, the capacity and
potential for humans to adapt (called adaptive capacity) is unevenly distributed across
different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less
capacity to adapt.
Climate engineering
Climate engineering (sometimes called geoengineering or climate intervention) is the
deliberate modification of the climate. It has been investigated as a possible response
to global warming, e.g. by NASA and the Royal Society. Techniques under research
fall generally into the categories solar radiation management and carbon dioxide
removal, although various other schemes have been suggested. A study from 2014
investigated the most common climate engineering methods and concluded they are
either ineffective or have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped
without causing rapid climate change.