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Program Evaluation
Katja Kaufmann
Winter 2012/13
Bocconi University
Organization of the Course
What is expected of you?
1. Read theory and applied papers with (*) in syllabus,
2. Present papers of your choice in class (with +)
20 min presentation (question and contribution of the paper,
methodology, results, conclusion and critical assessment)
3. Problem sets
Section 1: Introduction
1. Program Evaluation: Motivation and Questions that can be
addressed
2. Challenge: The Problem of Causal Inference
3. Counterfactual Framework
4. Different Approaches
Examples:
• Education: Effect of an additional year of schooling on earnings (“Returns to
education”); Effect of school inputs or class size on test scores; Effect of
watching TV on test scores, Effect of fellowships on college enrollment
• Labor: Effect of unemployment insurance on duration of unemployment,
Effect of minimum wages or job training on employment
• Development: Effect of antipoverty programs such as conditional cash
transfer programs on children’s education and health, effect of microfinance
programs on level and volatility of income
• Health: Effect of smoking/drinking on health; Effect of an advertising
campaign to cut smoking, effect of increasing minimum drinking age on
traffic deaths
Challenge: The Problem of Causal Inference
• Economic theory provides us with not one, but two causal equations:
even if E(uv) =0, E(yu) is generally not equal to zero (see first equation)
• Solutions to simultaneous causality bias:
– Randomized controlled experiment: because x is chosen at random by
the experimenter, there is no feedback from the outcome variable to y
(assuming perfect compliance)
– Use instrumental variables regression to estimate the causal effect of
interest (use the variation in x that is exogenous, e.g. supply shifters
such as bad weather which change supply but do not affect demand)
– Develop and estimate a complete model of both directions of causality
(idea behind large macro models, very difficult in practice).
Framework of potential outcomes
(Rubin’s causal model)
Treatment Effect:
for each individual, but only one of the two outcomes is observed
• If individual is treated:
– is observed,
– is a counterfactual
• Observed outcome:
• ATE:
• TTE:
• Parameters are the same if
– (A1) U1=U0
homogenous effect (conditional on X): g(X)
Y=a+g(X)*D+U0
Note: usually assumed in regression framework, problems of
internal validity as discussed before (e.g. omitted variable bias)
When are ATE and TTE the same?
• ATE:
• TTE:
• Parameters are the same if
– (A2)
Effects can be heterogeneous, but choice of treatment D is
independent of U1-U0 (i.e. ex-post heterogeneity, but not acted
on ex-ante)
This is for example the case in a randomized experiment with
full compliance: E(Y1-Y0|D=1)=E(Y1-Y0), as (U1-U0) indep of D
Goal of the literature on Program Evaluation
How to find a “good” comparison group to make up for not knowing
counterfactual outcomes
Illustration:
- Identification problem:
we observe E(Y0|D=0), E(Y1|D=1), but not the counterfact. E(Y0|D=1), E(Y1|D=0)
E(Y1|D=1) - E(Y0|D=0)
= [E(Y1|D=1) - E(Y0|D=1)] + [E(Y0|D=1) - E(Y0|D=0)]
= TTE + Bias
Bias is the difference between (average) counterfactual Y0 in both
populations (treated and untreated)
Why is this bias likely?
Then in general:
E(Y0 | D=1)=E(Y0 | Y0 < Y1-C) those who chose treatment
not equal to
E(Y0 | D=0)=E(Y0 | Y0 > Y1-C) those who chose not to be treated